"Major life decisions shouldn't rely on momentary passion — they need a repeatable decision algorithm."
Based on 20 years of decision research, fusing Expected Value + Kelly Criterion + Bayesian Theorem (EKB Framework) to help you build a self-correcting decision loop.
# skills.sh
npx skills add truenorth-lj/decision-algorithm-skill
# ClawHub
clawhub install decision-algorithm
# Manual (Claude Code)
cp -r . ~/.claude/skills/decision-algorithmdecision-algorithm-skill/
├── SKILL.md # Core skill entry point (self-contained EKB framework)
├── meta.json # Skill metadata
├── tools/
│ └── decision_calculator.py # EV & Kelly Criterion CLI calculator
├── docs/
│ └── methodology.md # Framework methodology deep-dive
├── README.md
└── LICENSE
Once installed, just ask naturally:
Should I quit my job to start a business?
Is this investment worth making?
I'm torn about whether to break up.
How risky is this opportunity?
How should I allocate my capital?
I feel lost about my life direction.
- Quick judgment: "Help me quickly assess this decision" — 7 Questions + EV sign
- Deep analysis: "Help me analyze this in detail" — Full 8-step workflow + 5-Resource Audit
- Specific framework: "Use Kelly to calculate how much I should invest" — Single tool focus
- Life planning: "Help me plan my direction" — Personal Evolution Formula + Resource Audit
# Expected Value — Is it worth doing?
python3 tools/decision_calculator.py --ev -p 0.3 -g 100000 -l 20000
# Kelly Criterion — How much to bet?
python3 tools/decision_calculator.py --kelly -p 0.4 -o 3
# Full analysis — All metrics at once
python3 tools/decision_calculator.py --full -p 0.3 -g 100000 -l 20000 --capital 500000
# Conservative mode (half-Kelly for uncertain estimates)
python3 tools/decision_calculator.py --full -p 0.3 -g 100000 -l 20000 --capital 500000 --conservative| Dimension | Tool | Problem Solved |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | Win Rate + Odds | What's the probability and payoff? |
| 2D | Expected Value | Is this decision worth making? |
| 3D | Kelly Criterion | How much resource to allocate? |
| 4D | Bayesian Updating | How to adjust with new information? |
- Only do things with positive expected value
- Never invest what you can't afford to lose
- Act first, keep updating (Bayesian mantra)
- Don't test human nature — set rules in advance
- Circle of competence > intelligence
- Stay at the table
English translation and adaptation of the EKB Decision Algorithm framework, originally based on Lao Yu's decision research.
MIT