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covariance-forecasting

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Eigenvector-Dynamics-Beyond-the-RMT-Null

RMT-calibrated financial eigenvector dynamics: separating genuine covariance rotation from sampling noise, testing forecastability on Grassmann and flag manifolds, and building geometry-aware covariance forecasts.

  • Updated Aug 5, 2026
  • Python

End-to-End Python implementation of Lacava's (2026) "Shifting Correlations" research. Features Numba-compiled GJR-GARCH volatility filtering, augmented DCC-X framework with exogenous Trade Policy Uncertainty integration, structural break testing, out-of-sample GMV optimization, and Model Confidence Set validation.

  • Updated Mar 29, 2026
  • Jupyter Notebook

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