Bayesian Causal Forests — stochtree BCF wrapper, segment CATE, ElasticityEstimator, FCA EP25/2 audit report
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Updated
Mar 13, 2026 - Python
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causal-forests
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Estimating the causal effects of CIA‑involved coups on institutional quality in Sub‑Saharan Africa using declassified JFK, RFK, and MLK records. Combines panel IV, causal forests, and synthetic control methods
python data-science political-science cia causal-inference synthetic-control panel-data sub-saharan-africa world-bank instrumental-variables institutional-economics wgi jfk-files causal-forests covert-operations declassified-records colonial-legacy
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Jun 9, 2026
A research-grade, 6-week masterclass in Causal Inference and Causal ML from first principles. Rebuilds d-separation oracles, propensity score IRLS engines, doubly-robust AIPW estimators, Cross-Fitting Double Machine Learning (DML), and honest causal forests from scratch in pure NumPy. Fully verified against causal truth
python dml artificial-intelligence causal-inference instrumental-variables dags cate double-machine-learning meta-learners directed-acyclic-graphs conditional-average-treatment-effects inverse-probability-weighting causal-forests potential-outcomes selection-bias-decomposition neyman-orthogonality randomization-mechanics back-door-criterion front-door-criterion regression-discontinuity-design
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Updated
May 30, 2026 - Jupyter Notebook
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