Data-driven financial/economic analysts of the profitability Gold and Silver as investment
Abstract
This repository documents a quantitative and historical analysis of gold and silver price dynamics using macroeconomic, financial, and geopolitical indicators. The project originated as a methodological exercise in statistical analysis using R and evolved into a broader examination of commonly asserted claims regarding silver valuation. The study emphasizes reproducibility, long-horizon analysis, and system-level economic drivers rather than narrative or speculative reasoning.
The primary objectives of this project are:
- To analyze historical gold and silver prices within a macroeconomic framework
- To identify statistically relevant drivers of precious metals price behavior
- To evaluate commonly repeated claims about silver valuation against historical data
- To document methodologies suitable for replication and extension
The scope is descriptive and analytical, not predictive. The project does not attempt to forecast prices or propose trading strategies.
Public discourse surrounding silver frequently exhibits a high degree of narrative uniformity and low empirical rigor. Assertions are often presented as self-evident truths, relying on selective historical references, simplified ratios, or unverifiable claims of market manipulation.
This repository was developed to examine silver using the same analytical standards applied to other asset classes, namely:
- Long-term time series analysis
- Macroeconomic context
- Cross-asset comparison
- Explicit treatment of uncertainty and model limits
The aim is not to refute beliefs, but to evaluate whether such claims are supported by observable historical behavior.
Silver and gold are analyzed as components of a broader economic system rather than as isolated monetary artifacts.
The framework incorporates the following categories:
Financial Markets
- Equity indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ in later periods)
- Risk-on / risk-off capital allocation dynamics
Monetary Variables
- Nominal and real interest rates
- Inflation and inflation expectations
Commodities and Energy
- Broad commodity indices
- Crude oil prices as a transmission variable
Geopolitical Context
- Major geopolitical cycles as exogenous shocks
- Emphasis on observable economic effects rather than narrative causality
No variable is treated as deterministically causal in isolation.
/data # Raw and cleaned historical datasets
/src # R scripts for analysis and visualization
/notebooks # Exploratory and explanatory notebooks
/docs # Methodology and supporting documentation
- Correlation is not interpreted as causation
- Structural breaks are explicitly acknowledged
- Data availability constrains early historical resolution
- Results are contingent on chosen indicators and sampling windows
This repository is under active development. Analytical results, documentation, and visualizations will be expanded iteratively.
Precious metals analytics © 2025 by Paulo H Leocadio is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0
| Common Claim | Typical Assertion | Empirical Observation | Analytical Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold–Silver Ratio | Ratio implies inevitable mean reversion | Ratio varies across regimes and monetary systems | No stable equilibrium ratio observed |
| Silver Price Suppression | Prices are artificially capped by coordinated actors | Long-term prices correlate with macro drivers | No independent evidence of persistent suppression |
| Imminent Price Explosion | Silver will rapidly reprice by an order of magnitude | Historical spikes are transient and regime-bound | Claim not supported by time-series behavior |
| Physical Scarcity | Limited supply guarantees repricing | Above-ground stock and recycling mitigate scarcity | Scarcity alone insufficient |
| Roman Era Ratios | Ancient ratios define “true” value | Ancient economies are non-comparable | Historical analogy invalid |
| Fiat Collapse | Paper currency collapse ensures metal repricing | Precious metals fluctuate under fiat systems | No monotonic relationship |
| Interest Rate | Irrelevance | Rates do not affect precious metals | Strong inverse relationship observed |