FLEETCAST: Fleet Car Stock Model
- German car market edition (truck edition comes soon)
This repository contains an open-source fleet model designed to analyze the transition of Germany’s vehicle fleet from internal combustion engine (ICEs) to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and other alternative powertrain technologies. The model assesses fleet evolution, final energy demand (FED), and cumulative CO₂ emissions under different policy and market scenarios. The model was created for the study "DOI". The respository conatins the Excel model Fleetcast (full access), a "hidden" version, which focusses on creating new scenarios without chaning data inputs and assumptions, as well as the comparison of different scenarios conducted in the study "DOI".
Scenario Analysis: Includes multiple transition scenarios (S100, D100, L100, S80, Linear 100) to explore BEV adoption rates. Energy and Emissions Modeling: Tracks energy demand and emissions reductions under various regulatory frameworks. Policy Impact Assessment: Evaluates the effectiveness of CO₂ fleet limits. Open-Source and Customizable: Users can modify input parameters to test alternative transition pathways.
To use this model, clone the repository and ensure you have Microsoft Excel installed.
The model is parameterized with official datasets and validated against historical data. To run a simulation: Results will be shown in the "Results" and visualized in the "Dashboard" sheet
The model utilizes data from: Verkehr in Zahlen (VIZ) German Federal Motor Vehicle Office (KBA) - Microdata 2015-2023 European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Various national studies on fleet transition
KBA data cannot be shared as raw data, as it is under an NDA. For data, which is derived from KBA, contact the authors.
Contributions are welcome! To propose changes: Fork the repository. Create a new branch (feature-branch-name). Make your modifications and commit.
This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE file for details.
For questions or suggestions, please create an issue in the repository or reach out via email.