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Speed up training and add OOD deferral analysis#5

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danielbusnz merged 2 commits into
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report-ood-analysis
May 29, 2026
Merged

Speed up training and add OOD deferral analysis#5
danielbusnz merged 2 commits into
mainfrom
report-ood-analysis

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Two changes. (1) Training: swap the exhaustive 'unique' pair sampling for oversampling (num_iterations=40, 1 epoch), ~60 min runs that kept dying become ~2 min; holdout accuracy 0.925. (2) Report: score an OOD/garbled probe set next to the holdout and add a confidence histogram + deferral-tradeoff curve. They show routelet's max-softmax saturates near 0.98 even on gibberish, so the 0.55 gate deferred ~0% of OOD; ~0.95 is the usable operating point (paired with the matching aegis tuning change).

sampling_strategy="unique" generated ~1.2M contrastive pairs on the grown
pool (~60 min runs that kept dying), most of them trivially-easy near-duplicate
pairs from the disfluency augmentation. oversampling with num_iterations=40
draws ~400 pairs, trains in ~2 min, holdout accuracy 0.925.
report.py scores an OOD/garbled probe set next to the holdout and adds two
figures: a confidence histogram and a deferral-tradeoff curve. They show
routelet is overconfident (max-softmax ~0.98 even on gibberish), so the 0.55
gate deferred almost nothing; ~0.95 is the usable operating point.
@danielbusnz danielbusnz merged commit 61eb50f into main May 29, 2026
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@danielbusnz danielbusnz deleted the report-ood-analysis branch May 29, 2026 17:58
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