Zero-shot forecasting for the signals that move a business: sales, prices, traffic, and energy.
Paste a series — or use a built-in sample — and get a quantile forecast (p10 / p50 / p90) in milliseconds. No training step. No fine-tune.
Inspired by Google TimesFM. Timesight is a local engine (damped Holt–Winters + residual quantile bands), not Google’s hosted weights.
| Surface | What you get |
|---|---|
| Sales | 182 days of daily flagship SKU revenue — weekend peaks, a promo every four weeks |
| Prices | 182 days of BTC-USD — drift and clustered vol, almost no weekly season |
| Traffic | 21 days hourly edge requests — office-hour ramps, a launch bump |
| Energy | 21 days hourly grid load (MW) — evening peaks, Sunday troughs |
| Custom | Paste your own CSV; frequency is detected (hourly vs daily) |
Controls on every series:
- Horizon — hourly: 24h / 48h / 3d / 7d. Daily: 7 / 14 / 30 / 90 days
- Forward — forecast past the last observation
- Backtest — hide the tail, score MAPE against real holdout
- Scenarios (samples only) — promo lift, demand shock, outage
- Write brief — optional Grok read of peak, trough, and the band
npm install
cp .env.example .env # optional; only needed for briefing
npm run devOpen the app, then:
- Click Energy (default) or another domain.
- Change the horizon. The forecast recomputes instantly.
- Switch to Backtest to see holdout MAPE.
- Paste series → drop a CSV → Use series.
Need a file to try? docs/examples/dummy-sales.csv is 56 days of dummy shop sales with weekend peaks and a promo spike.
Two columns: timestamp, then value. Header optional. Comma, semicolon, or tab.
date,value
2026-06-28,839
2026-06-29,1085
2026-06-30,1142
- At least 8 numeric rows (max 2,000; extras are trimmed from the front).
- Dates: ISO (
2026-06-28or2026-06-28T18:00:00Z) or unix seconds/ms. - Median step < 3 hours → treated as hourly (season 24). Otherwise daily (season 7).
- Duplicate timestamps keep the last value.
Full notes: docs/csv.md.
forecastSeries() in src/lib/forecast/engine.ts:
- Sort, require ≥ 8 points, keep the last 512 as context.
- Pick a seasonal period (24 hourly / 7 daily) and drop it if lag-m autocorrelation < 0.22 (prices usually have none).
- Grid-search damped Holt–Winters (additive and multiplicative when values are positive). Damping φ = 0.9.
- Project the horizon. Bands are
± 1.2816 σ √h(≈ 10th/90th normal quantiles), widening with the step. - Sales / traffic / energy are clipped at zero. Prices may go wherever the series goes.
Forward MAPE is one-step in-sample error on the fit. Backtest MAPE is zero-shot vs a hidden tail (min(horizon, 25% of the series, 90)).
Deep dive: docs/forecast-engine.md.
Write brief is user-initiated. It sends compact forecast stats to grok-4.5 via the xAI API and asks for JSON: a headline, three bullets, one risk.
Set XAI_API_KEY in the server environment. No key → the button returns a friendly unavailable state. The key never goes to the browser.
- React 19 + TanStack Start / Router
- Tailwind v4
- Recharts
- Radix + a small shadcn-style kit
- Zod, Zustand available (studio state is local React)
Layout and tokens live in src/styles.css and src/components/studio/studio.tsx.
Architecture: docs/architecture.md.
| Command | Purpose |
|---|---|
npm run dev |
Dev server (host 0.0.0.0, port 8080) |
npm run build |
Production client + SSR + Nitro |
npm run preview |
Serve the production build (port 8081) |
npm run typecheck |
tsc --noEmit |
npm run lint |
ESLint |
npm test |
Workspace script tests |
Timesight is not a port of TimesFM (200M-parameter decoder-only FM). It is a zero-shot workbench with the same job: one engine, many domains, quantile forecasts, no per-series training.
MIT. See LICENSE.
This desk is a named Hermes Bot — own model slot, memory, skills, routines, and @mentions.
# once
curl -fsSL https://hermes-agent.nousresearch.com/install.sh | bash
# this repo
./scripts/install-hermes-bot.sh
hermes -p timesight chatIn Hermes Desktop the Bot lands under Bots. Type @timesight from any chat; group it with the rest of the k3ss roster (markets, desks).
| File | Role |
|---|---|
AGENTS.md |
Project harness Hermes loads at session start |
.hermes/SOUL.md |
Bot personality |
.hermes/bot.yaml |
Roster, skills, groups |
.hermes/skills/timesight/SKILL.md |
Portable skill |
Docs: Bot Mode · Context files · Skills