Ryvo Network × x402 Research (Solana-only, Artemis-truth)

Goal: take the Artemis-canonical x402 numbers (classic.artemis.ai/asset/x402) for Solana and quantify exactly how many on-chain settlements Ryvo Network would need to clear the same flow — and therefore the real fee/throughput advantage of the channel + BLS clearing-round model.

The current rigorous result lives in analysis/launch.md, with the full numerical breakdown in analysis/solana-artemis.md.

Scope (2026-05-10 onward): This research is Solana-only. Base / Polygon / EVM analysis was retired so the brief can use Artemis as a single source of truth. Internal Dune-derived totals that don't reconcile with Artemis (e.g. our 47.28M Dune Solana tx vs Artemis's 7.58M for the matching window) have been demoted from headline numbers to topology proxies (the relationship graph and daily active-pair counts) — see "Methodology" in analysis/launch.md.

Why this matters

x402 today is "one on-chain tx per micropayment". Ryvo Network does:

N micropayments between (buyer, seller)  →  1 channel state update (off-chain, free)
M channels with activity in a clearing window  →  1 BLS-aggregated on-chain settlement tx

So the win factor isn't just batching — it's two compressions stacked:

1. Channel compression = micropayments per (buyer, seller) pair.
2. Clearing compression = channels per BLS round (devnet-validated configurations: 20 participants → 84 channels in 1 tx; 32 participants → 32 channels in 1 tx).

The full multiplicative win on the 7.58M Solana micropayments Artemis recorded over 2025-10-20 → 2026-05-09 (202 days):

	x402 today	Ryvo (Year 1, 84-ch round)	Ryvo (Steady state, 84-ch round)
On-chain tx	7,576,080	64,070	7,634
Fees paid	$6,061	$51	$6.11
Compression	1×	118×	992×

(Two framings because Ryvo channels are persistent and never closed — Year 1 includes the bootstrap cost of opening 56,436 channels; steady state is the recurring annual cost.)

Plus, denominated in yield-bearing stablecoins at 3% APY, the same flow generates $12K – $49K/year for participants — see analysis/launch.md for the full yield projection.

Folder layout

research/
  README.md                                  ← this file
  package.json
  .env.example                               ← required env vars (DUNE_API_KEY)
  notes/
    00-context.md                            ← x402 baseline numbers + sources
    01-data-sources.md                       ← APIs/dashboards
    02-collection-strategy.md                ← How we extract granular per-tx buyer→seller
    03-ryvo-math.md                          ← Channel + BLS clearing compression formulas
    04-findings.md                           ← Live results
  data/
    artemis/                                 ← Daily Artemis exports — the source of truth
    raw/
      facilitators.json                      ← Canonical x402 facilitator wallet registry
    processed/                               ← Dune topology proxy outputs
      daily_active_channels.json
      relationships_per_chain.json
      phase0_monthly.json
      solana_x402_fees_{daily,monthly}.json
  scripts/
    analyze-artemis-solana.ts                ← PRIMARY: Solana Ryvo math vs Artemis truth
    lib/
      dune.ts, facilitators.ts               ← Shared helpers for Dune scripts
    dune-probe.ts                            ← Validate Dune key + tier
    dune-probe-solana.ts                     ← Solana-specific probe
    dune-pull-aggregates.ts                  ← Pulls topology proxy (daily active, relationships)
    dune-pull-solana-fees.ts                 ← Solana fee aggregation
    dune-reconcile-chunked.ts                ← Legacy multi-chain Artemis reconciliation
    analyze-rigorous.ts                      ← Legacy multi-chain analyzer (retained for history)
    analyze-future-capacity.ts               ← Solana upgrade scenarios
  analysis/
    launch.md                                ← PRIMARY: public-facing brief
    launch-x-thread.md                       ← X / social-media thread draft
    solana-artemis.{md,json}                 ← PRIMARY: full numerical breakdown
    rigorous-comparison.{md,json}            ← Legacy multi-chain analyzer output (banner)
    future-capacity.{md,json}                ← Solana upgrade projection (banner)
    phase0-reconciliation.md                 ← Legacy Dune-vs-Artemis multi-chain reconciliation (banner)

Quick start

cd C:\ryvo\ryvo\research
npm install

# Primary: re-run the Solana × Artemis analysis
npm run analyze:solana
# → analysis/solana-artemis.{md,json}

# Optional — rebuild the Dune topology proxy (requires DUNE_API_KEY)
copy .env.example .env
npm run dune:pull           # → data/processed/daily_active_channels.json + relationships_per_chain.json
npm run analyze:rigorous    # → legacy multi-chain analyzer output (banner-marked)

See notes/ for the full plan and notes/04-findings.md for live results.