Treat Medicaid spending as validation-only target

packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us/fiscal_targets.py

@@ -241,7 +241,16 @@
     ("cms_nhe", "expenditure_amount", "medicaid_title_xix"): (
         "medicaid",
         "cms_medicaid",
-        {"target_role": "medicaid_spending"},
+        {
+            "target_role": "medicaid_spending",
+            "calibration_role": "validation_only",
+            "exclusion_reason": (
+                "PolicyEngine-US allocates medicaid spending from state totals "
+                "through person_weight-dependent denominators. Reweighting then "
+                "recomputes per-person medicaid costs, so this is not a linear "
+                "calibration row."
+            ),
+        },
     ),
     ("cms_medicare", "actual_amount", "premiums_from_enrollees"): (
         "gross_medicare_part_b_premium",
@@ -847,6 +856,8 @@ def _direct_reference_from_fact(
     else:
         base_variable, family, metadata = mapping
         metadata = dict(metadata)
+    if metadata.get("calibration_role") == "validation_only":
+        return None
 
     source_record_id = _source_record_id(fact)
     if not source_record_id:
@@ -1208,12 +1219,6 @@ def _str_at(obj: object, *path: str) -> str:
         accepted_families=("cms_aca",),
         min_matches=2,
     ),
-    TargetCoverageRequirement(
-        requirement_id="medicaid_spending",
-        label="Medicaid spending",
-        accepted_families=("cms_medicaid",),
-        required_metadata=(("target_role", "medicaid_spending"),),
-    ),
     TargetCoverageRequirement(
         requirement_id="medicaid_enrollment",
         label="Medicaid enrollment",

packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_targets.py

@@ -47,7 +47,6 @@
     "refundable_ctc_total",
     "aca_spending",
     "aca_enrollment",
-    "medicaid_spending",
     "medicaid_enrollment",
     "medicaid_chip_enrollment",
     "medicare_part_b_premium_total",
@@ -178,6 +177,30 @@ def test_reviewed_zero_support_facts_are_not_active_targets() -> None:
     assert control.value == 456_000_000
 
 
+def test_weight_dependent_medicaid_spending_is_validation_only() -> None:
+    source_record_id = (
+        "cms_nhe.cy2024.medicaid_title_xix_expenditures."
+        "medicaid_title_xix.expenditure_amount"
+    )
+    facts = [
+        *packaged_reference_facts(),
+        _dynamic_ledger_fact(
+            source_record_id=source_record_id,
+            source_name="cms_nhe",
+            measure_id="expenditure_amount",
+            groupby_value_id="medicaid_title_xix",
+            value=931_692_000_000,
+        ),
+    ]
+
+    registry = compile_us_fiscal_target_registry(facts)
+
+    by_source_record_id = {
+        spec.metadata["ledger_source_record_id"]: spec for spec in registry.specs
+    }
+    assert source_record_id not in by_source_record_id
+
+
 def test_jct_tax_expenditure_references_are_simple_income_tax_reforms() -> None:
     assert len(US_JCT_TAX_EXPENDITURE_REFORMS) == len(
         REFERENCE_JCT_TAX_EXPENDITURE_TARGETS
@@ -565,7 +588,7 @@ def test_us_fiscal_requirements_include_reference_program_and_tax_controls() ->
     assert "eitc_total" in ids
     assert "refundable_ctc_total" in ids
     assert "aca_marketplace" in ids
-    assert "medicaid_spending" in ids
+    assert "medicaid_spending" not in ids
     assert "medicaid_enrollment" in ids
     assert "medicaid_chip_enrollment" in ids
     assert "irs_agi_distribution" in ids
@@ -677,7 +700,7 @@ def test_medicaid_chip_requirement_needs_combined_enrollment_role() -> None:
     assert any("medicaid_chip_enrollment" in failure for failure in result.failures)
 
 
-def test_medicaid_requirements_need_spending_and_enrollment_roles() -> None:
+def test_medicaid_requirement_needs_enrollment_role() -> None:
     base_targets = [
         federal_income_tax_total_row(),
         *complete_agi_distribution_rows(),
@@ -687,21 +710,6 @@ def test_medicaid_requirements_need_spending_and_enrollment_roles() -> None:
     ]
     program_rows = complete_program_rows()
 
-    without_spending = [
-        *base_targets,
-        *[
-            row
-            for row in program_rows
-            if row["metadata"]["target_role"] != "medicaid_spending"
-        ],
-    ]
-    spending_result = target_profile_coverage_gate(
-        without_spending,
-        US_FISCAL_TARGET_COVERAGE_REQUIREMENTS,
-    )
-    assert not spending_result.passed
-    assert any("medicaid_spending" in failure for failure in spending_result.failures)
-
     without_enrollment = [
         *base_targets,
         *[
@@ -1073,11 +1081,7 @@ def complete_program_rows() -> list[dict[str, object]]:
             family = "irs_soi"
         elif role in {"aca_spending", "aca_enrollment"}:
             family = "cms_aca"
-        elif role in {
-            "medicaid_spending",
-            "medicaid_enrollment",
-            "medicaid_chip_enrollment",
-        }:
+        elif role in {"medicaid_enrollment", "medicaid_chip_enrollment"}:
             family = "cms_medicaid"
         elif role == "medicare_part_b_premium_total":
             family = "cms_medicare"

tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py

@@ -73,7 +73,6 @@
     "cms-aca-oep-state-level",
     "cms-medicaid-chip-monthly-enrollment-dataset",
     "cms-medicare-trustees-report-2025-part-b-premium-income",
-    "cms-nhe-historical-service-source",
     "census-stc-individual-income-tax",
     "hhs-acf-tanf-caseload-2024",
     "hhs-acf-tanf-financial-2024",
@@ -109,6 +108,7 @@
     "cms-aca-oep-state-level-2022",
     "cms-aca-oep-state-level-2025",
     "cms-medicaid-chip-monthly-enrollment-december-2024",
+    "cms-nhe-historical-service-source",
     "hhs-acf-liheap-fy2023-national-profile",
     "hhs-acf-liheap-fy2024-national-profile",
     "ssa-ssi-table-7b1-2024",