Fix ACA fiscal release target support

packages/populace-build/src/populace/build/us/fiscal_targets.py

@@ -294,6 +294,114 @@
         "PolicyEngine-US; this STC residual collection row cannot be estimated "
         "from the current state_income_tax variable."
     ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.ar.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Arkansas under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.az.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Arizona under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.co.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Colorado under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.ct.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Connecticut under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.de.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Delaware under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.ga.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Georgia under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.id.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Idaho under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.in.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Indiana under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.ks.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Kansas under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.ky.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Kentucky under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.me.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Maine under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.mi.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Michigan under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.mt.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Montana under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.nm.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in New Mexico under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.nv.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Nevada under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.ok.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Oklahoma under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.or.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Oregon under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.pa.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Pennsylvania under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.sd.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in South Dakota under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.tx.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Texas under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.vt.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in Vermont under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.wv.basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship.all_funds": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive TANF benefit support "
+        "in West Virginia under PolicyEngine-US state TANF formulas."
+    ),
+    "irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.state_agi.ak.under_1.return_count": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero Alaska return-count support in "
+        "the SOI under-$1 AGI bin."
+    ),
+    "irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.under_1.income_tax_before_credits_returns": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive income-tax-before-"
+        "credits support in the SOI under-$1 AGI bin."
+    ),
+    "irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.under_1.income_tax_before_credits_amount": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero income-tax-before-credits "
+        "amount support in the SOI under-$1 AGI bin."
+    ),
+    "irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.under_1.income_tax_liability_returns": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive income-tax-liability "
+        "support in the SOI under-$1 AGI bin."
+    ),
+    "irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.under_1.income_tax_liability_amount": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero income-tax-liability amount "
+        "support in the SOI under-$1 AGI bin."
+    ),
     "irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.under_1.qbi_claims": (
         "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive qualified business "
         "income deduction support in this SOI AGI bin."
@@ -326,6 +434,14 @@
         "Current-law PolicyEngine-US refundable CTC amount support is zero in "
         "this high-income SOI AGI bin."
     ),
+    "irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.500k_to_1m.medical_dental_expense_returns": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive medical-expense "
+        "deduction support in this SOI AGI bin."
+    ),
+    "irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.500k_to_1m.medical_dental_expense_amount": (
+        "Current 2024 base microdata have zero medical-expense deduction "
+        "amount support in this SOI AGI bin."
+    ),
     "irs_soi.ty2022.historic_table_2.us.1m_plus.medical_dental_expense_returns": (
         "Current 2024 base microdata have zero positive medical-expense "
         "deduction support in this SOI AGI bin."

packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_refresh_builder.py

@@ -374,7 +374,7 @@ def test_aca_source_runtime_refreshes_degenerate_release_inputs(monkeypatch) ->
                 {
                     "tax_unit_id": np.asarray([10, 20], dtype="int64"),
                     "stable_tax_unit_draw": [0.1, 0.2],
-                    "takes_up_aca_if_eligible": [True, True],
+                    "takes_up_aca_if_eligible": [False, False],
                     "selected_marketplace_plan_benchmark_ratio": [1.0, 1.0],
                 }
             ),
@@ -395,7 +395,7 @@ def test_aca_source_runtime_refreshes_degenerate_release_inputs(monkeypatch) ->
             name="cms_aca.oep2024.state_marketplace.al.aptc_recipients",
             entity="household",
             measure="takes_up_aca_if_eligible",
-            value=2.0,
+            value=3.0,
             source="CMS Marketplace OEP",
             family="cms_aca",
             metadata={"target_role": "aca_ptc_recipients", "state_fips": "01"},
@@ -407,7 +407,8 @@ def test_aca_source_runtime_refreshes_degenerate_release_inputs(monkeypatch) ->
         "health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b": np.asarray(
             [400.0, 1200.0]
         ),
-        "assigned_aca_ptc": np.asarray([100.0, 0.0]),
+        "assigned_aca_ptc": np.asarray([0.0, 0.0]),
+        "aca_ptc": np.asarray([100.0, 0.0]),
         "slcsp": np.asarray([1000.0, 1000.0]),
     }
 

packages/populace-build/tests/test_us_fiscal_targets.py

@@ -121,29 +121,61 @@ def test_us_fiscal_reference_selectors_are_unique_on_synthetic_fact_surface() ->
 
 
 def test_zero_support_ledger_facts_are_reviewed_exclusions() -> None:
-    assert len(US_FISCAL_TARGET_SUPPORT_EXCLUSIONS) == 11
+    assert len(US_FISCAL_TARGET_SUPPORT_EXCLUSIONS) == 40
     assert all(
-        source_record_id.startswith(("census_stc.", "irs_soi."))
+        source_record_id.startswith(("census_stc.", "hhs_acf_tanf.", "irs_soi."))
         for source_record_id in US_FISCAL_TARGET_SUPPORT_EXCLUSIONS
     )
     assert all(US_FISCAL_TARGET_SUPPORT_EXCLUSIONS.values())
 
 
 def test_reviewed_zero_support_facts_are_not_active_targets() -> None:
+    excluded_source_record_id = (
+        "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.ar."
+        "basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship."
+        "all_funds"
+    )
+    control_source_record_id = (
+        "hhs_acf_tanf.fy2024.cash_assistance.ca."
+        "basic_assistance_excluding_relative_foster_care_and_adoption_guardianship."
+        "all_funds"
+    )
     facts = [
-        {"lineage": {"source_record_id": source_record_id}}
-        for source_record_id in US_FISCAL_TARGET_SUPPORT_EXCLUSIONS
+        *packaged_reference_facts(),
+        _dynamic_ledger_fact(
+            source_record_id=excluded_source_record_id,
+            source_name="hhs_acf_tanf",
+            measure_id="all_funds",
+            value=123_000_000,
+            geography_level="state",
+            geography_id="0400000US05",
+            groupby_value_id="ar",
+        ),
+        _dynamic_ledger_fact(
+            source_record_id=control_source_record_id,
+            source_name="hhs_acf_tanf",
+            measure_id="all_funds",
+            value=456_000_000,
+            geography_level="state",
+            geography_id="0400000US06",
+            groupby_value_id="ca",
+        ),
     ]
-    facts.extend(
-        _ledger_fact_for_reference(reference, value=index + 1)
-        for index, reference in enumerate(US_FISCAL_TARGET_REFERENCES)
-    )
 
     registry = compile_us_fiscal_target_registry(facts)
 
-    names = {spec.name for spec in registry.specs}
-    assert len(registry) == len(US_FISCAL_TARGET_REFERENCES)
-    assert names.isdisjoint(US_FISCAL_TARGET_SUPPORT_EXCLUSIONS)
+    by_source_record_id = {
+        spec.metadata["ledger_source_record_id"]: spec for spec in registry.specs
+    }
+    assert excluded_source_record_id in US_FISCAL_TARGET_SUPPORT_EXCLUSIONS
+    assert excluded_source_record_id not in by_source_record_id
+    assert control_source_record_id in by_source_record_id
+    control = by_source_record_id[control_source_record_id]
+    assert control.family == "hhs_acf_tanf"
+    assert control.metadata["target_role"] == "tanf_total"
+    assert control.metadata["base_variable"] == "tanf"
+    assert control.metadata["state_fips"] == "06"
+    assert control.value == 456_000_000
 
 
 def test_jct_tax_expenditure_references_are_simple_income_tax_reforms() -> None:

tools/build_us_fiscal_refresh_release.py

@@ -490,6 +490,14 @@ def _aca_source_tax_unit_table(
         )
         > 0
     )
+    # Source-runtime support must ignore pre-refresh take-up flags:
+    # assigned_aca_ptc is aca_ptc multiplied by takes_up_aca_if_eligible.
+    potential_aca_ptc = _calculate_array(
+        simulation,
+        "aca_ptc",
+        map_to="tax_unit",
+    )
+    has_potential_ptc = potential_aca_ptc > 0
     if has_person_count_targets:
         eligible_people = (
             _calculate_array(
@@ -503,20 +511,18 @@ def _aca_source_tax_unit_table(
             frame,
             person_filter=eligible_people,
         )
-        tax_unit["is_aca_ptc_eligible"] = tax_unit["tax_unit_weight"] > 0
+        tax_unit["is_aca_ptc_eligible"] = (
+            tax_unit["tax_unit_weight"] > 0
+        ) & has_potential_ptc
     else:
         tax_unit["tax_unit_weight"] = frame.weights_for("household").values[positions]
-        tax_unit["is_aca_ptc_eligible"] = is_aca_ptc_eligible
+        tax_unit["is_aca_ptc_eligible"] = is_aca_ptc_eligible & has_potential_ptc
     tax_unit["health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b"] = _calculate_array(
         simulation,
         "health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b",
         map_to="tax_unit",
     )
-    tax_unit["assigned_aca_ptc"] = _calculate_array(
-        simulation,
-        "assigned_aca_ptc",
-        map_to="tax_unit",
-    )
+    tax_unit["assigned_aca_ptc"] = potential_aca_ptc
     tax_unit["slcsp"] = _calculate_array(simulation, "slcsp", map_to="tax_unit")
     return _with_state_take_up_rates(tax_unit, target_tables)