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Standardize portfolio presentation #3

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Expand Up @@ -20,24 +20,43 @@

<img src="docs/images/dopey_evidence_before_promotion.png" alt="DOPEY - Evidence before promotion" width="1536">

<sub>An evidence operating system for equities, options, macro, extreme-market intelligence, autonomous research, and governed execution.</sub>
<sub>An evidence operating system for equities, options, macro, extreme-market intelligence, governed research, and human-owned authority.</sub>

[Why DOPEY is different](#why-dopey-is-different) |
[How it works](#how-dopey-works) |
[Capability atlas](#capability-atlas) |
[Squeeze engine](#short-squeeze-intelligence) |
[Bubble engine](#bubble-leverage-ipo-and-valuation-intelligence) |
[Autonomy](#autonomy-recursive-improvement-and-dynamic-control) |
[Research autonomy](#research-autonomy-recursive-improvement-and-dynamic-control) |
[Desktop](#native-desktop-control-center) |
[Quick start](#quick-start)

</div>

---

## Product truth

| Contract | Current public state |
| --- | --- |
| **Portfolio role** | **Governed Market Research OS** — paper-only intelligence for equities and options with provenance, adversarial validation, durable memory, and bounded research. |
| **Maturity** | **Paper-only research release** |
| **Engineering evidence baseline** | [`57a806af`](https://github.com/ObtuseAI/dopey/commit/57a806af4578ac599b2ae979136a4cf39c4b3935) · required [public test workflow](https://github.com/ObtuseAI/dopey/actions/workflows/tests.yml) |
| **Proved now** | The required public shards pass 1,245 collected nodes from the protected 70-file manifest and exercise the evidence kernel, market-intelligence contracts, paper research, governance, and fail-closed boundaries. |
| **Authority ceiling** | **Live-disabled** and `not_action_ready`. Research, paper simulation, recommendations, and broker-readiness evidence do not grant order authority. |
| **Clean demonstration** | Follow the [quick start](#quick-start) to validate a fresh public checkout and run bounded research surfaces with explicit blocked states when governed inputs are absent. |
| **Known limit** | A fresh clone contains no provider market data, broker session, credentials, account history, or private runtime lake. The broader collected suite remains `inconclusive_timeout`; required-shard success is not full-suite coverage. |

**Designed for:** investment research and risk teams that want machine-scale market investigation without collapsing backtests, paper evidence, broker state, and capital authority into one unsafe score.

[Explore the ObtuseAI portfolio](https://github.com/ObtuseAI) ·
[Inspect the evidence lifecycle](#how-dopey-works) ·
[Start a technical conversation](https://github.com/ObtuseAI/dopey/issues)

## What is DOPEY?

DOPEY is an autonomous, evidence-first market-intelligence operating system.
DOPEY is a governed, evidence-first market-intelligence operating system for
paper research.
It is built to investigate equities, options, volatility, macro conditions,
market structure, short crowding, speculative bubbles, IPO reflexivity,
portfolio risk, and the quality of its own reasoning.
Expand All @@ -60,11 +79,11 @@ connected by explicit evidence contracts:
DOPEY is designed around a difficult question:

> How do you build a market-research system that becomes more capable,
> adaptive, and autonomous without becoming more vulnerable to overfitting,
> adaptive and increasingly self-directed in research without becoming more vulnerable to overfitting,
> hindsight, duplicated evidence, stale state, fabricated certainty, or
> authority creep?

Its answer is to make truth, memory, autonomy, and execution separate systems
Its answer is to make truth, memory, research autonomy, and execution separate systems
that must agree through typed, content-addressed artifacts.

> **Public-release truth:** a fresh clone starts with no provider market data,
Expand All @@ -83,7 +102,7 @@ that must agree through typed, content-addressed artifacts.
| Research option expressions | Models IV, skew, term structure, Greeks, liquidity, scenarios, and defined-risk structures | The derivative expresses an underlying thesis; it does not invent one |
| Learn per-symbol skill | Settles prior calls, collapses overlapping windows, tests chronological eras, and runs a circular-shift null | Repeated detections cannot inflate confidence |
| Evolve research methods | Generates bounded challengers, runs protected experiments, records lineage, and rolls back fitness drops | Self-improvement cannot rewrite the rules that judge it |
| Operate autonomously | Runs a dependency-aware 39-stage supervisor with locks, heartbeats, timeouts, recovery, and repair queues | A failed lane remains visible without erasing independent work |
| Operate scheduled research | Runs a dependency-aware 39-stage supervisor with locks, heartbeats, timeouts, recovery, and repair queues | A failed lane remains visible without erasing independent work |
| Preserve institutional memory | Uses immutable IDs, append-only ledgers, hashes, atomic publication, and rebuildable projections | Every conclusion can be traced to the evidence that produced it |
| Enforce a live boundary | Keeps broker authority inside `dopey_live/` and requires an exact paper twin before review | Research cannot silently become execution |

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -191,7 +210,7 @@ flowchart TB
E["Memory and evolution<br/>trade memory | failure memory | mutations | tournaments"]
F["Governance<br/>fitness | readiness | rollback | constitution"]
G["Execution boundary<br/>exact paper twin | broker review | Live Branch"]
H["Autonomous operations<br/>39-stage DAG | dynamic scheduler | snapshots | recovery"]
H["Scheduled research operations<br/>39-stage DAG | dynamic scheduler | snapshots | recovery"]

A --> B
B --> C
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -220,12 +239,12 @@ flowchart TB
| Strategy research | Playbooks, baselines, challengers, honest backtests, purged rolling origin, era walk-forward, forward paper walk | [`dopey_backtest/`](dopey_backtest/), [`dopey_strategy_lab/`](dopey_strategy_lab/), [`dopey_walk_forward/`](dopey_walk_forward/) |
| Statistical and causal truth | Selection-aware truth, negative controls, causal evaluation, cohort analysis, calibration, abstention | [`dopey/truth/`](dopey/truth/), [`dopey_stats/`](dopey_stats/), [`dopey_calibration/`](dopey_calibration/) |
| Portfolio and risk | Exposure policy, capacity, risk throttles, stress ladders, crisis mode, exit policy, drawdown, concentration, kill switches | [`dopey_portfolio/`](dopey_portfolio/), [`dopey_risk_engine/`](dopey_risk_engine/), [`dopey_governor/`](dopey_governor/) |
| Autonomous research | Invention, experiments, evidence synthesis, mutation genealogy, fitness quarantine, tournaments, rollback | [`dopey/autoresearch/`](dopey/autoresearch/), [`dopey_evolution/`](dopey_evolution/), [`dopey_fitness/`](dopey_fitness/) |
| Governed research automation | Invention, experiments, evidence synthesis, mutation genealogy, fitness quarantine, tournaments, rollback | [`dopey/autoresearch/`](dopey/autoresearch/), [`dopey_evolution/`](dopey_evolution/), [`dopey_fitness/`](dopey_fitness/) |
| Metacognition | Confidence, calibration, abstention, disagreement, difficulty, resource control, knowledge boundaries, strategy selection | [`dopey/metacognition/`](dopey/metacognition/) |
| Durable memory | Immutable predictions, settlements, trade memory, source registry, content-addressed generations, SQLite projection | [`dopey/strategy_engineering/`](dopey/strategy_engineering/), [`dopey_audit/`](dopey_audit/) |
| Resilient operations | 39-stage DAG, dynamic scheduling, snapshots, locks, heartbeats, timeouts, process-tree termination, recovery, repair queues | [`dopey_autonomy/`](dopey_autonomy/), [`dopey_acceleration/`](dopey_acceleration/), [`dopey_ops/`](dopey_ops/) |
| Operator experience | Native React control center, command palette, Market Tissue, Symbol Lab, Evidence, Truth, Evolution, Constitution, Paper, Playbooks | [`desktop/`](desktop/) |
| Governed execution | Exact paper twins, account attestation, reconciliation, immutable intents, no-day-trade guard, broker outcome evidence | [`dopey_live/`](dopey_live/), [`dopey_execution/`](dopey_execution/), [`dopey_broker_readiness/`](dopey_broker_readiness/) |
| Sealed execution-readiness research | Exact paper twins, account attestation, reconciliation, content-addressed intents, no-day-trade guard, broker outcome evidence | [`dopey_live/`](dopey_live/), [`dopey_execution/`](dopey_execution/), [`dopey_broker_readiness/`](dopey_broker_readiness/) |

## Market sensing and data intelligence

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -689,7 +708,7 @@ uses:

These are explicit policy values, so changes are reviewable and testable.

## Autonomy, recursive improvement, and dynamic control
## Research autonomy, recursive improvement, and dynamic control

DOPEY uses **RSI** in two distinct ways:

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1003,7 +1022,7 @@ Critical rules:
Read the full authority contract in
[`DOPEY_CONSTITUTION.md`](DOPEY_CONSTITUTION.md).

## Why the architecture is impressive
## Architecture principles

### 1. It models mechanisms, not just correlations

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