WP10b - Citation-fill: 4 of 5 [CITATION NEEDED] items resolved with verified primary sources

[HeliCorgi]

WP10b (Phase 0) - citation-fill per adsc-specification-v5.md section 6

Fills 4 of the 5 [CITATION NEEDED - PLACEHOLDER] items in the evidence pack with web-verified primary sources; item 5 stays PLACEHOLDER (explicitly allowed by the spec).

What was verified, and how

1. Iridium 33 / Cosmos 2251 cataloged fragments - Liou, J.-C., "An Analysis of the FY-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos 2251 Fragments", NASA ODPO, NTRS 20150003820 (2014). The PDF itself was fetched and read: Figure 1 table gives Cosmos 2251 = 1603, Iridium 33 = 598 cataloged (as of January 2013) -> 2201 from the one intact-intact collision, supporting the pack's "thousands of trackable fragments" sentence. (The MASTER-8 model documentation independently lists 1667/628 as later confirmed-detection counts - consistent.)
2. ESA environmental-index peak - "ESA's Annual Space Environment Report", GEN-DB-LOG-00288-OPS-SD, Issue 10.0, 1 May 2026, section 7.1. The report PDF was fetched and its text extracted: the quoted sentence ("areas with high risk concentration can be observed around 850 km of mean altitude and 70-80 degrees in inclination", 90% PMD assumption) is verbatim from the report body, matching catalog_A (~840 km / ~71 deg).
3. MASTER-8 release documentation - Horstmann, Hesselbach, Wiedemann, "Enhancement of S/C Fragmentation and Environment Evolution Models", Final Report, ESA contract 4000115973/15/D/SR (2020), cross-checked from the reference list of Braun et al., Proc. 8th European Conference on Space Debris (2021), which also pins the release date (March 2019) and reference epoch (1 Nov 2016). The 1.2 M (1-10 cm) population figure is as published on ESA's DISCOS space-environment statistics (MASTER-8, reference population 08/2024).
4. Catalog-class debris-ranking literature (D2) - McKnight et al., "Identifying the 50 statistically-most-concerning derelict objects in LEO", Acta Astronautica 181 (2021) 282-291, doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2021.01.021 (bibliographic record verified via the publisher/institutional portals; the ranking's SL-16 dominance is corroborated by multiple independent secondary analyses). The pack text notes the numeric class parameters themselves remain PLACEHOLDER constants.
5. Aged-MLI/paint low-speed contact damage threshold - left OPEN. Web searches found hypervelocity ballistic-limit literature (e.g. IADC Protection Manual) but no citable quantitative damage threshold for low-velocity contact on aged MLI/paint. Per spec WP10b this item "may legitimately remain open"; the pack keeps the marker and the "budget does not claim to be below threshold" phrasing.

Discipline

• Source edit is in tools/evidence/make_evidence.py only; evidence/adsc_evidence_pack.md regenerated through the generator (zero hand-edits). Deterministic: two regenerations byte-identical (sha256 7fd11efe...).
• No quoted repo number added/changed/removed -> R15 not triggered. generated/ untouched.
• Claims-audit test (tools/evidence/test_evidence.py): all checks passed locally; CI re-runs it plus the full reproducibility gate.
• Adversarial-verifier verdict: SHIP (all 6 checks PASS). Its one non-blocking note, for the record: the pre-existing ">= 1 cm ~1.2 M" phrasing sits near a rounding boundary (1.2 M in 1-10 cm + ~5.4e4 above 10 cm is ~1.25 M); not introduced by this diff - candidate for a future PLACEHOLDER burn-down pass (WP14).

Completion criterion (v5 section 6, WP10c list item b): citation-fill PR merged or items explicitly left open with reasons - 4 filled, 1 left open with reason stated above and in the pack.

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