A browser-based trading bot running eight independent strategies on Polymarket prediction markets — from AI-powered LLM analysis to microstructure momentum, Frank-Wolfe optimized arbitrage, dual-side maker hedging, and whale copy trading.
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║ ░▒▓ ALPHA POLY BOT ▓▒░ ║
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║ strategies: 8 ■■■■■■■■ positions: 3 P&L: +$12.47 ║
║ uptime: 4h 23m risk: NOMINAL mode: LIVE ║
║ ║
║ [LLM] scanning 847 markets... confidence: 0.72 ████░ ║
║ [DIP] watching 12 tokens last dip: -6.2% ███░░ ║
║ [F-W] 3 arb candidates spread: 1.8% ██░░░ ║
║ [BTC] 5-factor signal score: 0.46 ████░ ║
║ [MIC] flow toxicity: 0.23 imbalance: +0.31 ███░░ ║
║ [MRV] BTC Z-score: -2.14 entry: SHORT ████░ ║
║ [CPY] 3 whales tracked last copy: 2m ago ██░░░ ║
║ [DSH] YES@0.52 NO@0.51 maker spread: 0.03 ███░░ ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
- Architecture
- Strategies
- Risk Infrastructure
- Quick Start
- Commands
- Testing
- MCP Server
- Tech Stack
- Project Structure
- Deployment
- Disclaimer
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Spot Crypto Trading Real-time BTC/ETH/SOL positions with Z-score signals 
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Backtest Engine Historical replay with equity curves and parameter sweeps 
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Settings & Configuration Dry run mode, penny trader, wallet management, strategy parameters 
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┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Browser (React 18) │
├──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬────────────────────┤
│ Trading │Dashboard │ Activity │ Settings │ Notifications │
│ Terminal │Portfolio │ + Logs │ + Wallet │ (Toast + Audio) │
│ │Backtest │ │ │ │
├──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────────┴────────────────────┤
│ Zustand Stores │
│ settings (v32) · wallet · notifications · backtest │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Strategy Manager │
│ ┌──────┐ ┌─────┐ ┌──────┐ ┌─────┐ ┌─────┐ ┌─────┐ ┌─────┐ ┌─────┐│
│ │ LLM │ │ Dip │ │Frank-│ │ BTC │ │Micro│ │Mean │ │Copy │ │Dual ││
│ │Predct│ │ Arb │ │Wolfe │ │Up/Dn│ │Struc│ │Revrt│ │Trade│ │Side ││
│ └──┬───┘ └──┬──┘ └──┬───┘ └──┬──┘ └──┬──┘ └──┬──┘ └──┬──┘ └──┬──┘│
├─────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────┤
│ Trading Service │
│ Kelly Sizer · Gas Oracle · Order Book Depth · Trade Logger │
│ Edge Tracker · Calibration · Rejection Tracker · Market Scanner│
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Risk Manager │
│ Circuit Breaker · Position Lifecycle · SL/TP · Crash Recovery │
├───────────┬───────────┬────────────┬───────────────────────────┤
│CLOB Client│Gamma/Data │ Realtime │ Coinbase Client │
│(order sign│(markets) │ Market/User│ (spot crypto) │
│ + US SDK) │ │ WS + RTDS │ │
├───────────┴───────────┴────────────┴───────────────────────────┤
│ Polygon Network (Ethers.js v6) │
│ USDC.e · CTF Exchange · NegRisk Adapter │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
| # | Strategy | Signal Source | Edge | Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LLM Prediction | OpenRouter multi-model analysis with Brier-score calibration tracking | AI identifies mispriced markets | Adaptive (accelerates near close) |
| 2 | Dip Arbitrage | WebSocket price monitoring + order book spread scan, GTD orders with ask premium | Buys temporary dips on binary outcomes | 60s market / 30s spread |
| 3 | Frank-Wolfe Arb | Bregman projection optimizer on CLOB books with cross-market mutex validation | Exploits ask-sum < $1.00 across outcomes | 15s full scan |
| 4 | BTC Up/Down | 5-factor vol-normalized signal (momentum, velocity, time decay, value, flow) with regime detection + RSI filter | Trades crypto direction markets at resolution | Per 15-min window |
| 5 | Microstructure Momentum | Bid/ask imbalance, spread volatility, trade flow toxicity via MicrostructureAnalyzer | Exploits informed flow signals | Continuous |
| 6 | Mean Reversion | Z-score mean reversion on Coinbase spot crypto (BTC/ETH/SOL) via BinanceWS live feed | Fades extreme Z-score deviations | Continuous |
| 7 | Copy Trading | Mirrors trades from tracked Polymarket whale wallets with configurable position sizing | Piggybacks on whale alpha | Event-driven |
| 8 | Dual-Side Hedge | Maker-only YES+NO orders with 70/30 directional bias, driven by BTC signal engine + DynamicFeeService EV gate | Captures spread on both sides while maintaining directional exposure | Event-driven (signal-gated) |
| Component | Function |
|---|---|
| Circuit Breaker | Daily loss limit ($10), hourly trade cap (20), consecutive failure halt (5) |
| Position Lifecycle Manager | SL/TP enforcement via real-time WebSocket, partial exits, time-based exits, IndexedDB crash recovery |
| Kelly Criterion Sizing | Drawdown-adjusted fractional Kelly with high-water mark tracking |
| Gas Oracle | Skips trades when Polygon gas exceeds 50% of expected profit |
| Order Book Depth | Caps order size to available liquidity |
| Edge Tracker | Tracks realized vs. predicted edge with exponential decay |
| Rejection Tracker | Monitors exchange rejection patterns for early signal degradation |
# Clone and install
git clone https://github.com/Deegan4/alphapolybot.git
cd alphapolybot
npm install
# Configure
cp .env.example .env
# Edit .env: add VITE_WALLET_SEED_PHRASE and VITE_OPENROUTER_API_KEY
# Run
npm run dev # Dev server on :4000- Create a dedicated trading wallet (not your main wallet!)
- Fund it with USDC.e + MATIC on Polygon
- Get an OpenRouter API key from openrouter.ai/keys
- In the app: Settings > Wallet > Approve Tokens (3 contracts)
- Start in dry run mode — verify trades in the Activity tab
- When confident, disable dry run for live trading
Warning: Use USDC**.e** (bridged), not native USDC. The exchange only sees bridged USDC.e.
npm run dev # Vite dev server on :4000
npm run dev:strict-csp # Dev with strict CSP (no Fast Refresh)
npm run build # Production build (Vite 7 + esbuild)
npm test # 511 tests (Vitest)
npm run test:watch # Watch mode
npm run lint # ESLint
npm run preview # Preview production build557 tests across 23 suites covering all critical paths:
| Suite | Tests | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| RiskManager | 32 | Circuit breaker, emergency stop, daily limits |
| PositionLifecycleManager | 25 | SL/TP enforcement, partial exits, crash recovery |
| KellySizer | 33 | Fractional Kelly, drawdown adjustment, edge cases |
| FrankWolfeOptimizer | 31 | Bregman projection, convergence, fee handling |
| ProjectFWStrategy | 17 | Scan lifecycle, trade execution, merge retry |
| DipArbStrategy | 21 | Dip detection, spread scan, GTD orders |
| BtcUpDownStrategy | 34 | 5-factor signal, regime detection, RSI filter |
| MeanReversion | 53 | Z-score computation, Coinbase integration, position tracking |
| CopyTrading | 21 | Whale tracking, position mirroring, risk limits |
| CrossMarket | 23 | Event analysis, dependency classification, mutex |
| OpenRouterService | 21 | Budget tracking, model selection, signal fusion |
| EdgeTracker | 24 | Realized vs. predicted edge, decay tracking |
| signalEngine | 57 | Stateless 5-factor signal extraction, 5m profile |
| BacktestRunner | 12 | Historical replay, P&L/Sharpe/drawdown |
| PolyBacktestClient | 15 | API pagination, auth, data transforms |
| ArbitrageProfitFormula | 30 | Profit calculation, fee deduction, edge cases |
| DynamicFeeService | 26 | Quadratic fee curve, trade EV, dual-side EV, Kelly |
| DualSideHedgeStrategy | 14 | Maker YES+NO, bias logic, signal-gated entry |
| secureStorage | 17 | Encryption, key derivation, migration |
| settingsStore | 18 | Persistence, version migration (v32), setter isolation |
| MCP Tools | 12 | Tool execution, parameter validation |
| MCP Rounding | 11 | Tick-size compliance, decimal precision |
| MCP Auth | 8 | API key handling, HMAC signing |
npm test # Runs all 557 tests in ~3sThe mcp-server/ directory contains a standalone Model Context Protocol server for AI-assisted trading operations. It exposes tools for market analysis, position management, and trade execution to LLM agents.
cd mcp-server
npm install
npm test # 31 tests
npm run build| Layer | Technology |
|---|---|
| Frontend | React 18, TypeScript 5.3, Tailwind CSS, Framer Motion |
| Build | Vite 7 (esbuild transform) |
| State | Zustand with persist middleware (v29 schema) |
| Blockchain | Ethers.js v6 (Polygon), Polymarket US SDK |
| Charts | Recharts |
| LLM | OpenRouter (multi-model, budget-bucketed) |
| Storage | IndexedDB v4 (6 object stores), Secure encrypted localStorage |
| Real-time | WebSocket (market + user + RTDS + BinanceWS) |
| Crypto Prices | Coinbase API (HMAC-SHA256), BinanceWS |
| Testing | Vitest + jsdom + Testing Library |
| CI/CD | GitHub Actions + Netlify |
src/
├── components/
│ ├── charts/ # MatrixLineChart, AreaChart, BarChart, PieChart, Gauge, Sparkline
│ ├── dashboard/ # 22 components: BacktestView, ActivePositions, PerformancePanel,
│ │ # FollowTraderPanel, SpotCryptoView, DiagnosticsBanner, etc.
│ ├── layout/ # AppLayout, DashboardLayout, SettingsLayout, Header, Sidebar, MatrixRain
│ └── ui/ # 18 Matrix-themed components (Button, Card, Modal, Toast, etc.)
├── hooks/ # useWallet, useBalanceHistory, useCryptoPrices, usePolymarketPrices
├── services/
│ ├── api/ # CLOBClient, GammaClient, DataClient, CoinbaseClient,
│ │ # PolyBacktestClient, PolymarketUSClient, PriceOracleService
│ ├── llm/ # OpenRouterService (multi-model, budget-bucketed)
│ ├── notifications/ # Toast + Browser + Web Audio
│ ├── realtime/ # RealtimeService, RTDSService, UserChannelService, BinanceWSService
│ ├── storage/ # IndexedDB v4 (6 object stores)
│ ├── strategies/ # 8 strategies + optimizers + cross-market + signal engine
│ │ ├── btcupdown/ # signalEngine, BacktestRunner, HistoricalEnrichment
│ │ └── projectfw/ # FrankWolfeOptimizer, ArbitrageScanner
│ ├── trading/ # TradingService, RiskManager, PLM, KellySizer, GasOracle,
│ │ # OrderBookDepth, TradeLogger, EdgeTracker, CalibrationTracker,
│ │ # MicrostructureAnalyzer, ReadinessChecker, RejectionTracker
│ └── wallet/ # Ethers.js wrapper, approvals, balance tracking
├── stores/ # Zustand (settings v32, wallet, notifications, backtest)
├── views/ # TradingTerminal, DashboardView, PortfolioView, ActivityView, SettingsView
├── types/ # API types, wallet types
└── utils/ # secureStorage, cn (tailwind-merge)
mcp-server/ # Standalone MCP server for AI-assisted trading
Configured for Netlify with GitHub Actions CI:
# CI runs on every push/PR to main:
# 1. npm ci
# 2. npm run lint
# 3. npm test (511 tests)
# 4. npm run buildNetlify config in netlify.toml handles SPA routing and API proxy paths.
This software is for educational and research purposes only. Trading on prediction markets involves significant financial risk. The authors are not responsible for any financial losses. Always use a dedicated wallet with funds you can afford to lose. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
Built with TypeScript, React, and too much coffee.