diff --git a/internal/command/deploy/plan.go b/internal/command/deploy/plan.go
index 5faf6e963b..67784ca6e7 100644
--- a/internal/command/deploy/plan.go
+++ b/internal/command/deploy/plan.go
@@ -309,6 +309,14 @@ func (md *machineDeployment) updateMachinesWRecovery(ctx context.Context, oldApp
 			if err != nil {
 				return err
 			}
+
+			// Let any in-flight replaces settle before re-issuing updates. Stacking a
+			// fresh update on a machine that is still `replacing` is what produces the
+			// "concurrent update in progress" abort storm, and it's what puts a
+			// transient State in front of the launch decision. Best-effort and bounded
+			// by waitTimeout.
+			md.waitForReplacingMachinesToSettle(ctx, currentState, machineLogger)
+
 			err = md.updateMachinesWRecovery(ctx, currentState, newAppState, sl, updateMachineSettings{
 				pushForward:          false,
 				skipHealthChecks:     settings.skipHealthChecks,
@@ -330,7 +338,11 @@ func (md *machineDeployment) updateMachinesWRecovery(ctx context.Context, oldApp
 				fmt.Fprintln(md.io.ErrOut, "Failed to update machines:", err, "Retrying...")
 			}
 			attempts += 1
-			time.Sleep(1 * time.Second)
+			// Back off exponentially between retries instead of hammering at a fixed
+			// 1s. Combined with the settle-wait above, this gives an app that is
+			// churning (fast-restarting / mid-replace) time to reach a steady state
+			// rather than piling on more colliding updates.
+			time.Sleep(retryBackoff(attempts))
 		}
 	}
 
@@ -791,6 +803,53 @@ func waitForMachineState(ctx context.Context, lm mach.LeasableMachine, possibleS
 	}
 }
 
+// waitForReplacingMachinesToSettle blocks until machines that are currently
+// mid-replace reach a stable state, so a recovery retry doesn't stack a fresh
+// update on top of an in-flight replace. flaps aborts such an overlap as
+// "concurrent update in progress", and it's the re-read of that transient state
+// that feeds the launch decision. This is best-effort collision avoidance: a
+// machine that doesn't settle within waitTimeout is left for the update attempt
+// (the source of truth) to deal with, so wait errors are intentionally ignored.
+func (md *machineDeployment) waitForReplacingMachinesToSettle(ctx context.Context, state *AppState, machineLogger *MachineLogger) {
+	stableStates := []string{"started", "stopped", "suspended"}
+
+	var wg sync.WaitGroup
+	for _, m := range state.Machines {
+		if m.State != "replacing" {
+			continue
+		}
+		sl := machineLogger.getLoggerFromID(m.ID)
+		if sl == nil {
+			// Not a machine we're tracking in this deploy; nothing to log against.
+			continue
+		}
+
+		wg.Go(func() {
+			sl.LogStatus(statuslogger.StatusRunning, fmt.Sprintf("Waiting for in-flight replace of %s to settle", m.ID))
+			lm := mach.NewLeasableMachine(md.flapsClient, md.io, md.app.Name, m, false)
+			_, _ = waitForMachineState(ctx, lm, stableStates, md.waitTimeout, sl)
+		})
+	}
+	wg.Wait()
+}
+
+// retryBackoff returns the delay before the Nth (1-based) recovery retry. It grows
+// exponentially and is capped so a run of retries can't stall a deploy indefinitely.
+func retryBackoff(attempt int) time.Duration {
+	const base = 1 * time.Second
+	const maxBackoff = 15 * time.Second
+
+	if attempt < 1 {
+		attempt = 1
+	}
+	backoff := base << min(attempt-1, 30)
+	if backoff > maxBackoff || backoff <= 0 {
+		return maxBackoff
+	}
+
+	return backoff
+}
+
 func (md *machineDeployment) acquireMachineLease(ctx context.Context, machID string) (*fly.MachineLease, error) {
 	leaseTimeout := int(md.leaseTimeout.Seconds())
 	lease, err := md.flapsClient.AcquireLease(ctx, md.app.Name, machID, &leaseTimeout)
diff --git a/internal/command/deploy/plan_test.go b/internal/command/deploy/plan_test.go
index 0aa3ea9494..564b704ba8 100644
--- a/internal/command/deploy/plan_test.go
+++ b/internal/command/deploy/plan_test.go
@@ -732,3 +732,70 @@ func TestUpdateOrCreateMachine(t *testing.T) {
 	assert.Nil(t, lease)
 
 }
+
+func TestRetryBackoff(t *testing.T) {
+	t.Parallel()
+
+	// 1-based, exponential, capped at 15s (and no overflow for large attempts).
+	assert.Equal(t, 1*time.Second, retryBackoff(1))
+	assert.Equal(t, 2*time.Second, retryBackoff(2))
+	assert.Equal(t, 4*time.Second, retryBackoff(3))
+	assert.Equal(t, 8*time.Second, retryBackoff(4))
+	assert.Equal(t, 15*time.Second, retryBackoff(5))
+	assert.Equal(t, 15*time.Second, retryBackoff(6))
+	assert.Equal(t, 15*time.Second, retryBackoff(1000))
+
+	// Defensive clamp for non-positive attempts.
+	assert.Equal(t, 1*time.Second, retryBackoff(0))
+	assert.Equal(t, 1*time.Second, retryBackoff(-5))
+}
+
+// TestWaitForReplacingMachinesToSettle checks that on a recovery retry we wait for
+// machines that are mid-replace to settle before re-issuing updates, and that we
+// don't waste a wait on machines that are already in a stable state.
+func TestWaitForReplacingMachinesToSettle(t *testing.T) {
+	t.Parallel()
+
+	ctx := withQuietIOStreams(context.Background())
+
+	var mu sync.Mutex
+	waited := map[string]bool{}
+	flapsClient := &mock.FlapsClient{
+		WaitFunc: func(ctx context.Context, appName, machineID string, waitOpts ...flaps.WaitOption) error {
+			mu.Lock()
+			waited[machineID] = true
+			mu.Unlock()
+
+			return nil
+		},
+	}
+
+	md := &machineDeployment{
+		flapsClient: flapsClient,
+		io:          iostreams.FromContext(ctx),
+		app:         &flaps.App{Name: "myapp"},
+		waitTimeout: 30 * time.Second,
+	}
+
+	state := &AppState{Machines: []*fly.Machine{
+		{ID: "replacing1", State: "replacing"},
+		{ID: "started1", State: "started"},
+		{ID: "stopped1", State: "stopped"},
+	}}
+
+	slLogger := statuslogger.Create(ctx, len(state.Machines), false)
+	machineLogger := NewMachineLogger(map[string]statuslogger.StatusLine{}, slLogger)
+	machineLogger.initFromMachinePairs([]machinePairing{
+		{oldMachine: state.Machines[0]},
+		{oldMachine: state.Machines[1]},
+		{oldMachine: state.Machines[2]},
+	})
+
+	md.waitForReplacingMachinesToSettle(ctx, state, machineLogger)
+
+	mu.Lock()
+	defer mu.Unlock()
+	assert.True(t, waited["replacing1"], "should wait for a machine that is mid-replace to settle")
+	assert.False(t, waited["started1"], "should not wait on a machine that is already started")
+	assert.False(t, waited["stopped1"], "should not wait on a machine that is already stopped")
+}