PROGRAMME.md

% Demonstration session on Management Strategy Evaluation % Working Party on Methods % IOTC SC16 2013, Busan, Korea

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this session is to introduce SC members to Management Strategy Evaluation and simulation testing of management procedures. We intend to explain some fundamental concepts behind the use of stochastic simulation for comparing the relative performance merits of alternative management procedures, explain some of the details behind the work carried out by WPM to implement them, and show a simple but useful running example for participants to interact with.

ORGANIZATION

• To be run over two 30' sessions
• 2-3 demonstrators
• A set of prepared alternative simulations is to be run in advance, so results are available on the fly. But code should be kept simple enough that alternative formulations can be run in a short while.

PROGRAMME

1. Introduction to MSE (30')

PRESENTATION 1: What is MSE? (20')

• Definitions
  • Risk
  • Uncertainty
  • Simulation
• Very brief history
• SA-based advice: problems
• Decision rules
• Testing decision rules: MSE
• 6 steps
• Advantages
• Disadvantages
• Limitations
• Trade-offs
• MSE @ IOTC

Q&A (10')

2. Running and inspecting an MSE (30')

DEMO 1: Simple MSE example in FLR with user interface front end (25')

• Run projections under different management scenarios
• Compare alternative OM options
• Effects of uncertainty
• Select the HCR that best achieves objectives

Q&A (5')