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[skills-eval] dotnet-maui: 8 skills, 48% pass — 1 P0, 4 to strengthen, 3 keep #895

Description

@AbhitejJohn

🔄 EDITED 2026-07-19 — correction per #909

This finding has been revised. The errored trials that drove the FIX-RELIABILITY (P0) flag(s) below were shown in #909 to be judge-side infrastructure failures — a disabled/throttled PAT (CAPIError 400 organization disabled) and Vally's session.idle judge timeout — not fixture nondeterminism. Verdict scores already exclude errored trials, so re-running the classifier with those judge errors dropped reclassifies the affected skill(s):

Skill Was Now
maui-shell-navigation FIX-RELIABILITY (P0) STRENGTHEN

Struck-through text below is the superseded finding — in particular the "pin fixture SDK/tool versions" remediation does not apply. The title's P0 count has been updated. No eval re-run is required to correct the scores; recovering the lost judgments (optional) means re-judging those trials, not re-running the skill.

Context — cross-family skill evaluation: dotnet-maui

This issue is self-contained: it captures everything a skill author needs to act on the dotnet-maui plugin without opening the full report.

What this measures. Every runnable skill in dotnet/skills was run through Vally (0.7) on a cross-family matrix: 5 executor model families — opus-4.8, gpt-5.5, sonnet-4.6, haiku-4.5, mai-flash — each judged by a different family (judge ≠ executor; default judge = latest Opus, or GPT when Opus is the executor). For every skill, a skilled run is compared against a baseline (no-skill) run and scored per executor. This removes single-model and self-judging bias, so a skill that only helps one model family — or only its own family's judge — is visible.

  • Data source: cross-family CI grid (run 29228914412 + backfills) — 5 executors × 85 runnable skills, 419 scored cells over 84 skills.
  • Row grain: one row per skill, aggregated across its (up to 5) executor cells. avgN is the mean trial count behind the cells (trials 1–17; higher = more statistically trustworthy). thin-N flags directional-only rows.

dotnet-maui at a glance (portfolio scorecard)

Plugin Skills Cells Pass Impact Tie-trials Err avg ΔTok avg ΔTurns avg ΔTools Headline
dotnet-maui 8 40 48% 0.454 26 1 +7,766 +0.32 +0.38 Strong impact, dotnet-maui-doctor exemplar

Insights. 8 skill(s); mean impact 0.45; 3/8 help ≥1 frontier model. Exemplars (win incl. frontier): dotnet-maui-doctor. Weak-model-only wins (frontier misses): maui-safe-area. Weakest: maui-collectionview (0.12).

Address first: maui-shell-navigation — reliability; maui-collectionview — regression.

Address first: maui-collectionview — regression. (maui-shell-navigation reclassified to STRENGTHEN — see EDIT above.)

How to read the table

Each skill is scored skilled vs. baseline on these axes:

Signal Column What it means Good
Breadth Families ✓ (n/5) How many of the 5 model families the skill helps (per-family pass count, max 5/5) 4–5 / 5
Where Passed on Which families passed. Frontier = latest Opus + latest GPT are bold; Sonnet 4.6 / Haiku 4.5 / MAI Flash are mid/low-weight frontier ✓
Magnitude Impact (−1…+1) How strongly the judge prefers skilled over baseline ≥ 0.4
Decisiveness Ties▵ Trials where the judge saw no difference → skill is inert low
Safety Loss▵ Trials where skilled was WORSE than baseline → skill misfires ~0
Reliability Err Trials that errored/crashed in setup or judging 0
Efficiency ΔTok / ΔTurns / ΔTools Extra tokens / agent turns / tool calls vs baseline ≤ 0
Confidence avgN Mean trials behind the verdict; low N = directional only ≥ 3
Invocation Call% Share of skilled trials where the model actually invoked the skill ~100%

Families ✓ is cell-level (max 5/5); Ties▵/Loss▵ are trial-level tallies summed across all families (including the ones where the skill failed). A high Families ✓ next to non-zero Loss▵ is not a contradiction — see Passed on and the Action text for where losses landed.

Action buckets (each skill has one primary action; [flags] note secondary concerns):

Bucket Priority Meaning
FIX-RELIABILITY 🔴 P0 Errored trials / no verdict — stabilize the harness before trusting the score
FIX-DISCOVERY 🔴 P0 Model doesn't invoke it (Call% < 50%) — a triggering/description problem
FIX-REGRESSION 🔴 P0 Skilled is worse than baseline on many trials — the skill misfires
ADD-DECISIVENESS 🟠 P1 Called ~100% but ties dominate, ~0 impact — inert; needs sharper behavioral steps
TRIM-COST 🟠 P1 Passes but with heavy token/turn overhead — trim verbosity
EXEMPLAR 🟢 keep Broad, strong, reliable win — use as a template
EFFICIENT-WIN 🟢 protect Wins and cuts turns/tools — the ideal shape
KEEP-POLISH 🟢 Solid majority win; minor polish + more trials
STRENGTHEN 🟡 P2 Marginal/mixed lift — sharpen triggers & success criteria

Per-skill actions

Skill Families ✓ Passed on (frontier bold) Impact Ties▵ Loss▵ Err avgN Call% ΔTok ΔTurns ΔTools Action
dotnet-maui-doctor 5/5 Opus, GPT, Sonnet, Haiku, MAI 0.74 4 1 0 7.6 98% +46,929 +1.96 +3.57 EXEMPLAR · ✅ Template-worthy. What's good: broad (passes 5/5, incl. frontier Opus, GPT). Keep as-is; lift its structure (crisp triggers + imperative steps) into weaker siblings.
maui-safe-area 2/5 Sonnet, Haiku 0.70 2 2 0 3.8 95% -40,938 -2.2 -3.07 EFFICIENT-WIN · ✅ Better and cheaper. Wins on Sonnet, Haiku while saving 2.2 turns, 3.07 tools, 40,938 tok. What's good: it adds value without bloat — the ideal shape. Protect the brevity; don't let it grow. ⚠️ But both frontier models miss — this may only be helping mid/low-weight models. Treat as a weak-model win, not a universal one; check the frontier trajectories before templating. ([both-frontier-miss], [efficient])
maui-app-lifecycle 3/5 Sonnet, Haiku, MAI 0.59 4 0 0 4 95% +5,479 +0.3 +0.1 KEEP-POLISH · 🟢 Solid majority win on Sonnet, Haiku, MAI. Losses/ties are concentrated in the non-passing cells (Opus, GPT), not the 3 passing ones — the passes are clean. To firm up: (1) raise trials on Opus, GPT; (2) investigate why a frontier model (Opus, GPT) didn't pass — that's the highest-value gap; (3) minor wording polish only. ([both-frontier-miss])
maui-shell-navigation 2/5 GPT, Haiku 0.50 2 1 1 3.8 90% +15,144 +0.85 +1.05 FIX-RELIABILITY · 🔴 1 errored trial(s) — verdict can't be trusted until setup is deterministic. This is an infra/harness fix, not a content one: (1) capture the failing trial's stderr; (2) pin tool/SDK versions in the fixture; (3) add a setup smoke-check before scoring. ([reliability], [frontier-miss])

🔄 EDIT (see #909): STRENGTHEN · 🟡 Marginal (2/5 — GPT, Haiku), mostly ties. The 1 errored trial was a judge-side disabled-PAT failure (mai), not fixture nondeterminism — this is a decisiveness/content problem, not a reliability one. Sharpen the trigger; add opinionated steps. ([frontier-miss])
maui-theming 2/5 Sonnet, Haiku 0.34 5 2 0 3.8 100% +5,278 +0.25 +0.2 STRENGTHEN · 🟡 Marginal/mixed (passes 2/5 — Sonnet, Haiku). Diagnosis: mostly ties — too generic/non-prescriptive. Try: (1) sharpen the trigger so it fires only where it wins; (2) add 1–2 opinionated, concrete steps that change behaviour; (3) add trials to separate signal from noise. If frontier models never benefit, scope it explicitly to weaker models or reconsider its value. ([both-frontier-miss], [frontier-regressed])
maui-data-binding 2/5 GPT, Sonnet 0.32 5 1 0 4 95% +9,699 +0.25 +0.3 STRENGTHEN · 🟡 Marginal/mixed (passes 2/5 — GPT, Sonnet). Diagnosis: mostly ties — too generic/non-prescriptive. Try: (1) sharpen the trigger so it fires only where it wins; (2) add 1–2 opinionated, concrete steps that change behaviour; (3) add trials to separate signal from noise. ([frontier-miss], [frontier-regressed])
maui-dependency-injection 2/5 Sonnet, Haiku 0.32 2 4 0 4 95% +10,609 +0.6 +0.35 STRENGTHEN · 🟡 Marginal/mixed (passes 2/5 — Sonnet, Haiku). Diagnosis: misses both frontier models — likely assumes context they solve unaided. Try: (1) sharpen the trigger so it fires only where it wins; (2) add 1–2 opinionated, concrete steps that change behaviour; (3) add trials to separate signal from noise. If frontier models never benefit, scope it explicitly to weaker models or reconsider its value. ([both-frontier-miss])
maui-collectionview 1/5 Haiku 0.12 2 6 0 4 85% +9,928 +0.55 +0.55 FIX-REGRESSION · 🔴 Regresses ~30% of trials (worse than baseline), losing on Opus, MAI. The skill is over-applying. Fixes: (1) add explicit stop-conditions ("do NOT act when…"); (2) narrow the trigger to the exact scenario it helps; (3) demote prescriptive edits to suggestions the agent can decline. Prioritise the frontier miss (Opus, GPT). ([both-frontier-miss], [frontier-regressed])

Generated from the cross-family Call-to-Action report (CALL-TO-ACTION.md §4–§5; companion IMPACT-ANALYSIS.md). Regenerate the underlying tables with node deep-metrics.mjs "$env:TEMP\cf-ci" agg-cinode gen-cta-tables.mjs agg-ci. Numbers are directional where avgN is low; treat single-trial cells as hypotheses to confirm with more runs.

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