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retrieval-diagnostics: explain-miss — deterministic "why not X" trace #315

Description

@tcballard

Sub-issue of #314 (retrieval-diagnostics, ADR-093).

Corpus: rac/requirements/rac-explain-miss-diagnostics.md (Proposed) — Initiative 1 of the roadmap.

Scope:

  • Extend the explainable-retrieval surface (explain-hit ships the winning field, matched terms, and tier) to explain absences: given a query and a named target artifact, report deterministically why the target did not rank or did not match — no term hit a tier, a term matched nothing, or the budget truncated it.
  • Scoped to a named target ("why did this not surface"), never "everything that didn't match" — the roadmap's over-reporting mitigation.
  • No model, no embeddings, no LLM (ADR-066, ADR-002): a pure trace over the existing matcher. Reproducible: the same query + target names the same reason.
  • CLI contract (human + JSON + exit codes) specified with the change; additive only (ADR-007).

Tick on #314 when the trace ships with its golden coverage.

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