Record the Research-Investment Decision

[RMKruse]

Parent

#35

What to build

Type: HITL.

Review the completed Merit Probe Evidence Bundle and automated Further-Investment Gate evaluation, then record the final research-investment decision and rationale. The decision must choose replication, bounded diagnosis, or pause while preserving caveats and the distinction between one-dataset evidence and general GraphNAMLSS claims.

Acceptance criteria

• A human reviewer inspects per-seed and aggregate metrics, provenance, failed runs, selected checkpoints, predictions, and interpretability artifacts.
• The recorded decision is explicitly one of: proceed to the PEMS-BAY Replication Gate, run a bounded diagnostic agenda, or pause further investment.
• The rationale identifies the NLL or CRPS signal, relevant guardrails, interpretability status, and material caveats.
• A promising result unlocks only PEMS-BAY consideration, not the full Primary Experiment Matrix, Bayesian Graph Streams, structural uncertainty, or application tracks.
• A fail or inconclusive result names bounded diagnostic follow-ups rather than uncontrolled architecture expansion.
• The decision avoids claiming general GraphNAMLSS superiority from the METR-LA Merit Probe.

Blocked by

• Evaluate the Further-Investment Gate #44