Persist structured target fields in the US target surface (geography/source/variable/breakdown)

[MaxGhenis]

Problem

The US calibration target surface (target_surface_raw.npz) persists each target only as a flattened slash-joined string name, under three inconsistent conventions:

• state/<source>/<variable>/<STATE_ABBR> — e.g. state/bea/wages_and_salaries/AL
• nation/<source>/<variable>[/<dims>] — e.g. nation/irs/adjusted gross income/total/AGI in 10k-15k/taxable/All
• US<fips>/<metric> — e.g. US01/snap-cost

Any consumer that wants to group, filter, or display targets by criteria (geography, source, variable, breakdown) has to re-parse these strings. The populace.dev /calibration page does exactly this today (scripts/build_dashboard_data.py: parse_target) — brittle and convention-dependent, and it loses information where the conventions disagree (e.g. US<fips> rows carry no source).

The target registry already knows the structured fields at construction time; the surface just drops them on export.

Ask

Have the exported target surface carry structured per-target fields alongside (or instead of) the flattened name — geography (+ level), source, variable, breakdown — mirroring the long-format schema the policyengine-us-data calibration targets already use:

DATA_SOURCE, GEO_ID, GEO_NAME, VARIABLE, VALUE, IS_COUNT, BREAKDOWN_VARIABLE, LOWER_BOUND, UPPER_BOUND

Acceptance criteria

• The exported target surface includes structured per-target fields (geography + level, source, variable, breakdown) with a stable, documented schema.
• A consistent geography key across the three conventions (national / state-abbr / state-FIPS).
• Diagnostics consumers (populace.dev /calibration, the observatory) read the structured fields directly — no slash-string parsing in the consumer.

Related

• Publish calibration diagnostics (per-target rows, loss trajectory, skipped targets) with each populace-us release #10 — publish calibration diagnostics (per-target rows, loss trajectory, skipped targets). The populace.dev /calibration page now realizes this, parsing the slash names as a stopgap until this issue lands.
• Track US geography and local-area source support #48 — US geography and local-area source support.