From 4e299b7c8fd3e29b375fd63bbf2afcc5478893c6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 14:51:37 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 01/42] Design spec: nominal price and wage rigidities Two-country MU HANK gains genuine nominal price and wage Phillips curves, closed without any policy rate: the terms-of-trade identity p/p(-1) = (1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D) pins the inflation differential off the existing p unknown, and a union-inflation normalisation pins the level. Financial contracts stay real, so no Fisher relation or deposit-market rework. Markups are subsidy-neutralised, so the steady state is bit-identical and all five new residuals are exactly zero at it. Flex is the exact kappa -> inf limit, which supplies the regression gate and removes the need for a STICKY code switch. Scope: sticky becomes the paper's new baseline; flex demotes to an appendix robustness run. Union monetary channel explicitly out of scope. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- .../2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md | 320 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 320 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md diff --git a/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md b/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5fe6f33 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md @@ -0,0 +1,320 @@ +# Nominal rigidities: price and wage Phillips curves + +**Date:** 2026-08-05 +**Branch:** `add-nkpc` +**Status:** design approved, not yet implemented + +## Goal + +Add genuine nominal price and wage rigidities to the two-country monetary-union +HANK model, and make the sticky model the paper's new baseline. The current model +is fully real — `sj.create_model` is named *"Flex Price & Wage, No CB"* +(`code/full_model.py:91`) and there is no inflation variable, nominal rate, or +policy rule anywhere in `code/`. + +The rigidities must deliver three things: + +1. **Demand-determined output** — a sovereign-risk shock contracts activity + through demand, not only through the bank/supply side. +2. **Damped labour-side overshoot** — flexible wages let `N` jump too much at + impact because the household wealth effect passes straight into labour supply. +3. **Distributional incidence** — sticky wages shift adjustment from wages onto + hours, changing who bears the shock across the E4 income quintiles. + +## Explicitly out of scope + +**The union monetary channel.** No ECB policy rate, no Taylor rule, no Fisher +equation, no change to the deposit-market architecture. **All financial contracts +stay real** — deposits, sovereign bonds, coupons, and the T-2 predetermined +deposit rate are untouched. + +This is a deliberate boundary, and it is the seam a referee will probe, so the +paper must state it. The consequence is recorded under *Limitations* below. + +Also out of scope: live steady-state markups and the profit-income channel (see +*Steady-state neutrality*). That is a candidate follow-on spec. + +## Why the closure works without a policy rate + +In a monetary union the nominal exchange rate is fixed at 1, so the terms of +trade **is** the accumulated inflation differential: + +``` +p = P_F / P_D => p_t / p_{t-1} = (1 + pi_F) / (1 + pi_D) +``` + +`p` is already an unknown in the model (target `goods_mkt_D`). That identity pins +the inflation *differential* off an object that already exists. One further +normalisation pins the *level*: + +``` +omega_pi_D * pi_D + (1 - omega_pi_D) * pi_F = 0 +``` + +i.e. the ECB stabilises union-wide producer-price inflation — the `phi_pi -> inf` +limit of a Taylor rule. This is stated as an abstraction, not a modelled rule. +Because financial contracts remain real, no policy rate or Fisher relation is +needed anywhere. + +Given the `p` path, these two equations determine `pi_D` and `pi_F`; the two price +Phillips curves then determine `mc_D` and `mc_F`; labour demand determines `w`; +the wage Phillips curves determine `N`; and `goods_mkt_D` determines `p`. No +redundancy. + +## Equations + +For each country `i` in `{D, F}`. + +### Price Phillips curve (new, `equations_{D,F}.py`) + +``` +nkpc_p_res_i = pi_i - beta_i * pi_i(+1) - kappa_p_i * (mu_p_i * mc_i - 1) +``` + +Rotemberg form in producer-price inflation. The gap is written as a **ratio**, so +it is unit-free and linearises to exactly `mc_hat`; published Calvo slopes are +therefore directly usable for `kappa_p` with no steady-state rescaling. + +### Labour demand (changed, `labor_demand_{D,F}`) + +``` +w_res_i = w_i - mu_p_i * mc_i * (1 - alpha_i) * Y_i / N_i +``` + +The `mu_p_i` factor **is** the production subsidy `tau_s = 1 - 1/mu_p`. At +`mc_i = 1/mu_p_i` this collapses to today's competitive condition +`w = (1-alpha) Y / N` identically. + +### Wage Phillips curve (new; replaces `labor_market_{D,F}` as a target) + +``` +pi_w_i = (w_i / w_i(-1)) * (1 + pi_i) - 1 +pi_w_i_p1 = (w_i(+1) / w_i) * (1 + pi_i(+1)) - 1 +gap_w_i = vphi_i * N_i ** (1 / frisch_i) / (w_i / P_CES_i) - 1 +nkpc_w_res_i = pi_w_i - beta_i * pi_w_i_p1 - kappa_w_i * gap_w_i +``` + +Nominal wage `W = w * P_i`, hence `1 + pi_w = (w/w(-1)) * (1 + pi)`. + +Under GHH the MRS is `vphi * N^(1/frisch)` with marginal utility cancelling — +`labor_ss_D` states this explicitly (`code/equations_D.py:236`). So `gap_w_i` is +the existing `labor_mkt_res_i` in ratio form, and heterogeneity requires no +marginal-utility-weighted aggregation. + +**Implementation constraint:** SSJ `@simple` blocks apply lead/lag operators only +to *block inputs*, never to locally computed variables. `pi_w_i_p1` must therefore +be built explicitly from `w_i(+1)` and `pi_i(+1)` as shown — `pi_w_i(+1)` will not +work. + +**Disposition of `labor_market_{D,F}`:** the function stays in +`equations_{D,F}.py` (it documents the flexible-wage condition, of which +`gap_w_i` is the ratio form) but is **removed from all three dynamic +`create_model` lists**, replaced by `wage_nkpc_{D,F}`. It is not in the +steady-state block list (`code/steady_state.py:151`), so the SS solve is +unaffected. + +### Global (new, `equations_global.py`) + +``` +tot_res = p / p(-1) - (1 + pi_F) / (1 + pi_D) +union_pi_res = omega_pi_D * pi_D + (1 - omega_pi_D) * pi_F +``` + +### Discounting + +The curves discount at the constant `beta_i` rather than at `SDF_i`. Because +`pi_ss = 0`, the SDF deviation multiplies a zero and the two are **identical to +first order** — and the model is solved by linearised `solve_jacobian`. The choice +is immaterial; `beta_i` is the textbook form. + +## System: 23x23 -> 27x27 + +New unknowns: `mc_D, pi_D, mc_F, pi_F`. +New targets: `nkpc_p_res_D, nkpc_p_res_F, tot_res, union_pi_res`. +Renamed target: `labor_mkt_res_{D,F}` -> `nkpc_w_res_{D,F}`. + +```python +unknowns_tp = [ + 'K_D','n_inter_D','div_D','I_D','Q_D','b_gov_D','N_D','b_F_D','w_D','rdep_D','mc_D','pi_D', + 'K_F','n_inter_F','div_F','I_F','Q_F','b_gov_F','N_F','b_D_F','w_F','rdep_F','mc_F','pi_F', + 'p','q_b_D','q_b_F', +] +targets_tp = [ + 'deposit_mkt_D','K_res_D','n_inter_val_D','div_res_D','capital_res_D','q_res_D', + 'b_gov_res_D','b_F_D_res','nkpc_w_res_D','w_res_D','nkpc_p_res_D', + 'deposit_mkt_F','K_res_F','n_inter_val_F','div_res_F','capital_res_F','q_res_F', + 'b_gov_res_F','b_D_F_res','nkpc_w_res_F','w_res_F','nkpc_p_res_F', + 'goods_mkt_D','rb_D_res','rb_F_res','tot_res','union_pi_res', +] +``` + +## Steady-state neutrality + +Markups are neutralised by subsidy, so **the steady state is bit-identical to +today's**. With `pi_i_ss = 0` and `mc_i_ss = 1/mu_p_i`, all five new residuals are +*exactly* zero at the existing steady state: + +| Residual | At SS | +|---|---| +| `nkpc_p_res_i` | `0 - 0 - kappa_p*(mu_p*(1/mu_p) - 1) = 0` | +| `w_res_i` | `w - 1*(1-alpha)Y/N = 0` (today's condition) | +| `pi_w_i` | `(1)(1) - 1 = 0` | +| `nkpc_w_res_i` | `0 - 0 - kappa_w*0 = 0` (gap zero by `labor_ss_i`) | +| `tot_res` | `1 - 1 = 0` | +| `union_pi_res` | `0` | + +`K`, `rk`, `w`, `N`, the spread, `EL_price_D`, the IC-delta consistency check, +`assert_gk_well_posed`, and every Walras residual are therefore unchanged. +`mu_w` stays at **1.0** — it is the steady-state neutralising device, while a +finite `epsilon_w = 11` governs the wage-curve slope. `labor_ss_{D,F}`'s `vphi` +calibration is untouched. + +`steady_state.py` needs only `mc_{D,F} = 1/mu_p_{D,F}` and `pi_{D,F} = 0.0` seeded +into `calibration_start` so `ss_final` carries them into the dynamic solve. + +## The flex model is the exact `kappa -> inf` limit + +Dividing each Phillips-curve residual by `kappa` and letting `kappa -> inf` gives +back `gap_w_i = 0` (today's `labor_mkt_res_i`) and `mu_p*mc = 1` (today's +`w_res_i`) — identically, not approximately. + +Two consequences: + +- **No `STICKY` switch is needed.** The flex robustness run is a calibration + override `kappa_p = kappa_w = 1e4` through + `experiments/common.calibration_override`. No branching inside the equations + and no second code path to drift — the failure mode CLAUDE.md records for the + retired `audit_artifacts/` harness. +- **It supplies the regression gate** (rollout step 1). Very large `kappa` may be + ill-conditioned; if `1e4` fails to converge, step down and record the largest + value that does. + +## The het block is unchanged + +Hours become demand-determined and are rationed in proportion to productivity +`e` — already exactly how `income_D` distributes labour income +(`code/equations_D.py:66`) — and the GHH disutility already takes aggregate `N_D`. +That is the standard union-wage-setting assumption. Nothing in the EGM changes. + +## Rotemberg resource costs are omitted + +`(phi/2) * pi^2 * Y` is quadratic around `pi_ss = 0`, so its derivative there is +zero and `solve_jacobian` linearises — it **cannot** move any IRF. Including it +would inject a nonlinear term into `goods_mkt_D`, which currently holds at 1e-14. +It would matter only for a second-order welfare exercise; E1's welfare is +first-order off `U_D = X_D / C_D_ss`. + +A useful side effect: the `market_clearing_D` identity is untouched, so E2's +self-verifying dY decomposition must still close at 1e-7 — an independent check +on the whole change. + +## Calibration + +New parameters in `code/calibration.py`. The slope formulae are evaluated at +`beta = 0.985`; `beta_D` and `beta_F` are separately solved SS unknowns near that +value, and the slopes are fixed calibration constants, not functions of the +solved betas. + +| Parameter | Value | Basis | +|---|---|---| +| `mu_p_D/F` | 1.20 | `epsilon_p = 6`, standard | +| `kappa_p_D/F` | 0.0871 | Calvo `theta_p = 0.75`, `(1-theta)(1-beta*theta)/theta`. Euro-area IPN median price duration ~4 quarters (Alvarez et al. 2006; Dhyne et al. 2006) | +| `kappa_w_D/F` | 0.0038 | `theta_w = 0.75`, `epsilon_w = 11`, `phi = 1/frisch = 2`: `(1-theta)(1-beta*theta)/(theta*(1+epsilon_w*phi))` | +| `omega_pi_D` | 0.071 | `1 - kappa_cb_F`, the already-documented renormalised capital key (BuBa 26.1 / BoG 2.0 of the euro-area key) | + +### Do not use model GDP weights for `omega_pi_D` + +The model normalises `Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1`, so GDP weights would give +`omega_pi_D ~ 0.5`, implying a Greek deflation forces German inflation up nearly +one-for-one — the opposite of 2010-12. The capital key (~0.071, and ~0.076 on +actual 2011 GR/DE nominal GDP) is the correct weight and is already in the +codebase with a citation. + +## Rollout + +**Step 0 — refactor first, as a pure no-op.** `full_model.py:69`, `tpi.py:145` +and `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py:160` each hardcode the `create_model` +block list. Extract one `build_block_list()` in `full_model.py` and point the +other two at it. **Verify `code/main.py` output is bit-identical before adding +anything.** Doing this after would mean validating two changes at once, and +CLAUDE.md records that a drifting duplicate model is what invalidated +`audit_artifacts/`. + +**Step 1 — structural-equivalence gate.** Add the six blocks, wire the 27x27 +system, run at `kappa = 1e4`. Must reproduce the current baseline IRFs to solver +tolerance and hold every threshold: `goods_mkt_D <= 1e-14`, `goods_mkt_F` and +`ca_res_D <= 1e-7`, `deposit_mkt_D/F <= 1e-13`. If this fails the wiring is wrong +and nothing downstream is worth debugging. + +**Step 2 — dial `kappa` to calibrated values.** Check residuals, doom-loop signs +(`n_inter_D[0] < 0`, `Y_D[0] < 0`), stability (`b_gov_D[499] ~ 0`), the IC-delta +consistency check, and `assert_gk_well_posed`. + +**Step 3 — re-tune `psi_lambda_B`** to the 150bp-per-1pp-default-shock target. It +will move, because spread transmission now runs through a sticky terms of trade. + +**Step 4 — regenerate.** `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`, then +`experiments/run_all.py`, then figures. E1, E2, E3, E4 and the declining-loading +key figure are all rebuilt on the sticky model; flex becomes an appendix +comparison. + +**Step 5 — docs.** STATE.md, PROGRESS.md, HANDOFF.md (hook-enforced), plus +SPEC.md and CLAUDE.md. + +## Verification + +`code/main.py` remains the structural regression test. On top of it: + +- **Equivalence:** at `kappa_p = kappa_w = 1e4`, IRFs match the pre-change + baseline to solver tolerance. +- **Steady state:** every solved SS object is bit-identical to `main`'s. +- **Residual thresholds:** unchanged, as listed in step 1. +- **Sign checks:** `n_inter_D[0]` and `Y_D[0]` both negative on the default shock. +- **E2 closure:** dY decomposition still asserts at 1e-7. +- **Slope sweep:** `kappa_w` in {0.002, 0.0038, 0.01, 0.03} and `kappa_p` in + {0.03, 0.087, 0.2}; report the stable region. This is a required robustness + table regardless. + +## Risks + +**`kappa_w = 0.0038` is flat — wages are quite rigid.** Against a model with +documented near-unit-root and explosive regions (F-1, GK-2), that may +destabilise. Mitigated by the slope sweep above. + +**The `psi_lambda_B` re-tune may land in a breakdown region.** CLAUDE.md puts the +documented breakdown around 4-5 at `n_inter = 3.0`. Step 3 must re-verify +stability at whatever value it lands on, not merely hit the moment. + +**Solve time grows.** 23 -> 27 unknowns at T=500; expect ~3 min to become 4-5. +E3 does two re-solves, so `experiments/run_all.py --skip-e3` matters more during +iteration. + +## Limitations to state in the paper + +**The demand channel is relative-price, not intertemporal.** Excluding the union +channel means there is no real-rate route from stickiness to spending. Output is +demand-determined here through the **sluggish terms of trade** — a Greek +contraction cannot depreciate `p` quickly, so net exports do not cushion it — plus +the markup wedge in labour demand. That is a defensible mechanism and *is* the +internal-devaluation story for 2010-12, but it is not the textbook monetary +channel, and the paper must say which one it claims. + +**Steady-state markups are subsidised away**, so the profit-income channel is +absent. Live markups (`mu_p ~ 1.2`) would put pure profits at ~17% of output as a +new, highly concentrated household income stream — which would change E4 incidence +on its own. Deferred to a follow-on spec. + +## Relationship to the `add-nkwpc` branch + +`add-nkwpc` (commit `2377f79`, off `08e1010`, pre-reorganisation) is a single +26-line commit adding `wage_setting_{D,F}` only. It was never wired into the model +list and has no `kappa_w` calibration. It is a **template, not code to port**: + +- It is a **real-wage** Rotemberg curve (`pi_w = w/w(-1) - 1` on the *real* wage, + explicitly "no CB needed") — a real adjustment friction, not a nominal rigidity. + There is no price-side counterpart at all. +- It divides the MRS by `UCE_D`, which is correct under separable preferences but + **wrong under the GHH preferences this model uses** — cf. `labor_ss_D` and + `labor_market_D`, neither of which contains `UCE`. +- It uses `w_D` where the existing labour condition uses `w_D / P_CES_D`, dropping + the CES bundle deflator. From acf4154a625bd38422e859d851f4a54fbec9d020 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 15:02:41 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 02/42] Spec: benchmark nominal rigidities against Bi-Foerster-Traum (2026) FRBSF WP 2025-10 is the closest published analogue (two-country MU, GK intermediaries, endogenous default, cross-border sovereign holdings; IT/DE 2012). Three corrections and one benchmark section: - kappa_p = 0.0871 agrees with their Calvo-equivalent 0.0846 to within 3%; the gap is entirely the discount factor. No recalibration needed. - mu_p is free to first order under subsidy-neutralisation (the gap linearises to mc_hat regardless), so their theta^c=11 vs eps=6 is a non-issue. - add-nkwpc's stated motivation is wrong for GHH: there is no wealth effect on labour supply by construction. Goal restated as adjustment moving off the real wage onto hours, which is what the distributional goal needs. - omega_pi_D = 0.071 retained over their 0.5/0.5: the closure gives pi_D = -(1-omega)*dlog p, so 0.071 puts 93% of terms-of-trade adjustment into Greek deflation, the 2010-12 pattern. 0.5 splits it evenly. Also records the live risk: their nominal side does little propagation (inflation +/-0.1% vs investment 9%), their output contraction comes from a loan-in-advance constraint this model lacks, and they never publish a flexible-price counterfactual -- which the kappa -> inf gate produces here for free. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- .../2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md | 89 ++++++++++++++++++- 1 file changed, 86 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md b/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md index 5fe6f33..2243419 100644 --- a/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md +++ b/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md @@ -16,8 +16,12 @@ The rigidities must deliver three things: 1. **Demand-determined output** — a sovereign-risk shock contracts activity through demand, not only through the bank/supply side. -2. **Damped labour-side overshoot** — flexible wages let `N` jump too much at - impact because the household wealth effect passes straight into labour supply. +2. **Damped labour-side response** — flexible wages let `N` track the real wage + one-for-one off the labour-supply curve. Sticky wages push adjustment off the + wage and onto hours. **Note this is *not* a wealth-effect story:** under GHH + there is no wealth effect on labour supply at all (marginal utility cancels — + `code/equations_D.py:236`), so the `add-nkwpc` branch's stated motive does not + apply to this model. See *Relationship to the `add-nkwpc` branch*. 3. **Distributional incidence** — sticky wages shift adjustment from wages onto hours, changing who bears the shock across the E4 income quintiles. @@ -217,11 +221,19 @@ solved betas. | Parameter | Value | Basis | |---|---|---| -| `mu_p_D/F` | 1.20 | `epsilon_p = 6`, standard | +| `mu_p_D/F` | 1.20 | `epsilon_p = 6`, standard. **Free to first order** — see below | | `kappa_p_D/F` | 0.0871 | Calvo `theta_p = 0.75`, `(1-theta)(1-beta*theta)/theta`. Euro-area IPN median price duration ~4 quarters (Alvarez et al. 2006; Dhyne et al. 2006) | | `kappa_w_D/F` | 0.0038 | `theta_w = 0.75`, `epsilon_w = 11`, `phi = 1/frisch = 2`: `(1-theta)(1-beta*theta)/(theta*(1+epsilon_w*phi))` | | `omega_pi_D` | 0.071 | `1 - kappa_cb_F`, the already-documented renormalised capital key (BuBa 26.1 / BoG 2.0 of the euro-area key) | +### `mu_p` does not matter to first order + +Under subsidy-neutralisation the gap `mu_p*mc - 1` linearises to exactly `mc_hat` +irrespective of `mu_p` (since `mu_p * mc_ss = 1`), and labour demand's steady +state is `w = (1-alpha)Y/N` either way. So `mu_p` is a free normalisation in this +build and needs no defending. It becomes a genuine calibration choice only if the +live-markup / profit-income follow-on is taken up. + ### Do not use model GDP weights for `omega_pi_D` The model normalises `Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1`, so GDP weights would give @@ -230,6 +242,18 @@ one-for-one — the opposite of 2010-12. The capital key (~0.071, and ~0.076 on actual 2011 GR/DE nominal GDP) is the correct weight and is already in the codebase with a citation. +Working the closure through makes the stake concrete. Combining the two global +equations gives `pi_D = -(1 - omega_pi_D) * dlog p` and +`pi_F = omega_pi_D * dlog p`. At `omega_pi_D = 0.071`, **93% of any +terms-of-trade adjustment appears as D (Greek) producer-price deflation and 7% as +F (German) inflation** — the 2010-12 internal-devaluation pattern. At 0.5 it +splits evenly, which is counterfactual for GR/DE. + +Bi, Foerster and Traum (2026) use 0.5/0.5, but for Italy/Germany as two +comparably-sized blocs, and inside a *Taylor rule* where the weight sets a policy +response rather than allocating a given differential. Report the choice and note +the 0.5 alternative; do not adopt it. + ## Rollout **Step 0 — refactor first, as a pure no-op.** `full_model.py:69`, `tpi.py:145` @@ -304,6 +328,57 @@ absent. Live markups (`mu_p ~ 1.2`) would put pure profits at ~17% of output as new, highly concentrated household income stream — which would change E4 incidence on its own. Deferred to a follow-on spec. +## Benchmark: Bi, Foerster and Traum (2026) + +*"Asset Purchases in a Monetary Union With Default and Liquidity Risks", FRBSF +Working Paper 2025-10, https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2025-10.* The closest published +analogue to this model: two-country monetary union, Gertler-Karadi +intermediaries, endogenous sovereign default, cross-border sovereign holdings, +targeted ECB asset purchases — calibrated to Italy/Germany 2012 rather than +Greece/Germany 2010-12. + +| | Bi-Foerster-Traum | This spec | +|---|---|---| +| Price rigidity | Rotemberg, exact nonlinear (their eq. 2.14) | Rotemberg, linear-equivalent | +| Wage rigidity | **none** — flexible, `chi*L^sigma_l = U_c*w` (A.9) | wage NKPC, both countries | +| SS markup | **live**, `theta^c = 11` -> `mc_ss = 10/11` | subsidy-neutralised, SS bit-identical | +| Firm profits | routed to representative household | absent (neutralised) | +| Nominal anchor | Taylor rule, `phi_pi=1.6, phi_y=0.07, phi_r=0.85` | union-inflation normalisation, no rate | +| Union weights | 0.5 / 0.5 | `omega_pi_D = 0.071` | +| ToT identity | `rer_t/rer_{t-1} = pi*_t/pi_t` (A.80), CPI form | same relation, PPI form | +| Financial contracts | nominal (deposits, debt, net worth all deflated) | real | +| Solution | 2nd-order perturbation (endogenous regime switching) | 1st-order SSJ | + +**The price slope agrees.** Their `psi` maps to a Calvo-equivalent slope +`(1-xi)(1-beta*xi)/xi = 0.0846` at `xi_p = 0.75, beta = 0.995`. This spec's +`kappa_p = 0.0871` at `beta = 0.985` is the same number to within 3%; the gap is +entirely the discount factor. No change required. + +**The wage slope has no benchmark in this model class.** They have no wage curve. +Note also that `kappa_w`'s flatness is driven substantially by the *preference* +parameter, not by any wage-rigidity estimate: the `(1 + epsilon_w/frisch)` +denominator is 23 at `frisch = 0.5` versus 12 at their `sigma_l = 1`. This is why +the slope sweep is load-bearing rather than cosmetic. + +**They never report a flexible-price counterfactual.** Their Table 1 decomposes +over the liquidity-risk channel, the fiscal-limit shift, and the debt change — +never over price stickiness. The `kappa -> inf` gate in this spec produces exactly +that counterfactual as a by-product, so it is reportable output, not merely a +regression test. + +**Their nominal side does little propagation work, and that is a live risk here.** +Inflation moves +/-0.1% while investment moves 9% and output 0.6% (their Figure +3); Tables 2 and 3 show inflation entries of 0.00-0.02 against investment at 0.53. +Their Section 4.1 mechanism narrative treats inflation as an *outcome* of the +relative-price move, never as a channel. What drives their output contraction is +the **loan-in-advance constraint** (`eta^I = 0.65/0.75` of investment must be +debt-financed, their eq. 2.10) — a real financial friction this model does not +have. Against their `-0.6%` output impact, this model's `Y_D[0] = -0.0149%` is two +orders of magnitude smaller, and a Phillips curve is unlikely to close that gap. +A Sims-Wu working-capital constraint is the natural candidate if the sticky build +leaves `Y_D[0]` implausibly small; it is **out of scope here** and would need its +own design pass. + ## Relationship to the `add-nkwpc` branch `add-nkwpc` (commit `2377f79`, off `08e1010`, pre-reorganisation) is a single @@ -318,3 +393,11 @@ list and has no `kappa_w` calibration. It is a **template, not code to port**: `labor_market_D`, neither of which contains `UCE`. - It uses `w_D` where the existing labour condition uses `w_D / P_CES_D`, dropping the CES bundle deflator. +- **Its stated motivation is wrong for this model.** The comment says sticky wages + stop "the household wealth effect" translating into `N`. GHH preferences have no + wealth effect on labour supply by construction — that is the point of GHH, and + both `labor_market_D` and `labor_ss_D` show marginal utility cancelling out of + the intratemporal condition. What sticky wages actually buy here is that + adjustment moves off the real wage and onto hours, which is what the + distributional goal needs (hours are rationed proportional to `e`), but the + channel must be described correctly in the paper. From dc6d2ffa12e154226a7e2d3febfb317930b171af Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 15:11:37 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 03/42] Spec: drop wage rigidity, price Phillips curves only Author decision 2026-08-05. Scope narrows to price stickiness; the labour block is untouched, so labor_market_D/F stays in every block list and keeps labor_mkt_res_D/F as the target for N. System count is unchanged at 27x27 -- the wage curve had replaced labor_mkt_res one-for-one, so removing it swaps a target name back rather than changing the count. Four new residuals (two price NKPCs, ToT identity, union normalisation), all exactly zero at the existing steady state. Flex is now the kappa_p -> inf limit of a single curve. kappa_w and epsilon_w drop out of the calibration; mu_w stays 1.0 and untouched. Scope now matches Bi-Foerster-Traum on the labour side (both price-sticky, flexible wages), which removes the need to defend a wage slope with no benchmark in this model class. A Taylor rule was scoped and rejected the same day; the reasoning is recorded under "Explicitly out of scope" so it is not re-derived: a policy rule only bites if it pins a real rate, which frees both deposit-market conditions and requires either a cross-border banking claim (rewriting external_account_D) or an ECB reserve asset inside the GK incentive constraint. Also records that wage rigidity's loss costs the hours-rationing component of distributional incidence. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- .../2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md | 205 ++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 93 insertions(+), 112 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md b/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md index 2243419..38acdc4 100644 --- a/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md +++ b/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -# Nominal rigidities: price and wage Phillips curves +# Nominal rigidities: price Phillips curves **Date:** 2026-08-05 **Branch:** `add-nkpc` @@ -6,37 +6,47 @@ ## Goal -Add genuine nominal price and wage rigidities to the two-country monetary-union -HANK model, and make the sticky model the paper's new baseline. The current model -is fully real — `sj.create_model` is named *"Flex Price & Wage, No CB"* +Add genuine nominal price rigidity to the two-country monetary-union HANK model, +and make the sticky model the paper's new baseline. The current model is fully +real — `sj.create_model` is named *"Flex Price & Wage, No CB"* (`code/full_model.py:91`) and there is no inflation variable, nominal rate, or policy rule anywhere in `code/`. -The rigidities must deliver three things: +The rigidity must deliver: 1. **Demand-determined output** — a sovereign-risk shock contracts activity - through demand, not only through the bank/supply side. -2. **Damped labour-side response** — flexible wages let `N` track the real wage - one-for-one off the labour-supply curve. Sticky wages push adjustment off the - wage and onto hours. **Note this is *not* a wealth-effect story:** under GHH - there is no wealth effect on labour supply at all (marginal utility cancels — - `code/equations_D.py:236`), so the `add-nkwpc` branch's stated motive does not - apply to this model. See *Relationship to the `add-nkwpc` branch*. -3. **Distributional incidence** — sticky wages shift adjustment from wages onto - hours, changing who bears the shock across the E4 income quintiles. + through demand, not only through the bank/supply side, via a markup wedge in + labour demand and a sluggish terms of trade. +2. **Distributional incidence** — the changed path of output, wages and the terms + of trade alters how the shock lands across the E4 income quintiles. ## Explicitly out of scope -**The union monetary channel.** No ECB policy rate, no Taylor rule, no Fisher -equation, no change to the deposit-market architecture. **All financial contracts -stay real** — deposits, sovereign bonds, coupons, and the T-2 predetermined -deposit rate are untouched. - -This is a deliberate boundary, and it is the seam a referee will probe, so the -paper must state it. The consequence is recorded under *Limitations* below. +**Wage rigidity (author decision, 2026-08-05).** Price stickiness only. The +labour market keeps today's flexible GHH condition `labor_market_{D,F}` +unchanged. This matches Bi, Foerster and Traum (2026), who also have price +stickiness and flexible wages. Consequence to note: the hours-rationing channel +is absent, so distributional incidence works only through the output/wage/terms- +of-trade path, not through adjustment shifting from wages onto hours. + +**The union monetary channel (author decision, reaffirmed 2026-08-05).** No ECB +policy rate, no Taylor rule, no Fisher equation, no change to the deposit-market +architecture. **All financial contracts stay real** — deposits, sovereign bonds, +coupons, and the T-2 predetermined deposit rate are untouched. This is a +deliberate boundary and the seam a referee will probe, so the paper must state +it; the consequence is recorded under *Limitations*. + +A Taylor rule was scoped and rejected on 2026-08-05. The blocker is structural, +not effort: a policy rule only has traction if it pins a real rate, and pinning +`rdep_D`/`rdep_F` frees both deposit-market conditions, which then need an +absorber — either a zero-net-supply cross-border banking claim (rewriting +`external_account_D`, currently at 1e-7) or an ECB reserve asset inside the GK +incentive constraint. A deposit spread over the policy rate does not work, since +a free spread absorbs the rate one-for-one and the rule does nothing. Also out of scope: live steady-state markups and the profit-income channel (see -*Steady-state neutrality*). That is a candidate follow-on spec. +*Steady-state neutrality*), and a Sims-Wu loan-in-advance constraint (see +*Benchmark*). Both are candidate follow-on specs. ## Why the closure works without a policy rate @@ -62,8 +72,8 @@ needed anywhere. Given the `p` path, these two equations determine `pi_D` and `pi_F`; the two price Phillips curves then determine `mc_D` and `mc_F`; labour demand determines `w`; -the wage Phillips curves determine `N`; and `goods_mkt_D` determines `p`. No -redundancy. +today's unchanged labour-supply condition determines `N`; and `goods_mkt_D` +determines `p`. No redundancy. ## Equations @@ -89,33 +99,11 @@ The `mu_p_i` factor **is** the production subsidy `tau_s = 1 - 1/mu_p`. At `mc_i = 1/mu_p_i` this collapses to today's competitive condition `w = (1-alpha) Y / N` identically. -### Wage Phillips curve (new; replaces `labor_market_{D,F}` as a target) - -``` -pi_w_i = (w_i / w_i(-1)) * (1 + pi_i) - 1 -pi_w_i_p1 = (w_i(+1) / w_i) * (1 + pi_i(+1)) - 1 -gap_w_i = vphi_i * N_i ** (1 / frisch_i) / (w_i / P_CES_i) - 1 -nkpc_w_res_i = pi_w_i - beta_i * pi_w_i_p1 - kappa_w_i * gap_w_i -``` - -Nominal wage `W = w * P_i`, hence `1 + pi_w = (w/w(-1)) * (1 + pi)`. +### Labour supply — unchanged -Under GHH the MRS is `vphi * N^(1/frisch)` with marginal utility cancelling — -`labor_ss_D` states this explicitly (`code/equations_D.py:236`). So `gap_w_i` is -the existing `labor_mkt_res_i` in ratio form, and heterogeneity requires no -marginal-utility-weighted aggregation. - -**Implementation constraint:** SSJ `@simple` blocks apply lead/lag operators only -to *block inputs*, never to locally computed variables. `pi_w_i_p1` must therefore -be built explicitly from `w_i(+1)` and `pi_i(+1)` as shown — `pi_w_i(+1)` will not -work. - -**Disposition of `labor_market_{D,F}`:** the function stays in -`equations_{D,F}.py` (it documents the flexible-wage condition, of which -`gap_w_i` is the ratio form) but is **removed from all three dynamic -`create_model` lists**, replaced by `wage_nkpc_{D,F}`. It is not in the -steady-state block list (`code/steady_state.py:151`), so the SS solve is -unaffected. +`labor_market_{D,F}` stays exactly as it is (`code/equations_D.py:287`), remains +in all three dynamic block lists, and keeps `labor_mkt_res_{D,F}` as the target +for `N_{D,F}`. Nothing in the labour block changes. ### Global (new, `equations_global.py`) @@ -126,7 +114,7 @@ union_pi_res = omega_pi_D * pi_D + (1 - omega_pi_D) * pi_F ### Discounting -The curves discount at the constant `beta_i` rather than at `SDF_i`. Because +The curve discounts at the constant `beta_i` rather than at `SDF_i`. Because `pi_ss = 0`, the SDF deviation multiplies a zero and the two are **identical to first order** — and the model is solved by linearised `solve_jacobian`. The choice is immaterial; `beta_i` is the textbook form. @@ -135,7 +123,7 @@ is immaterial; `beta_i` is the textbook form. New unknowns: `mc_D, pi_D, mc_F, pi_F`. New targets: `nkpc_p_res_D, nkpc_p_res_F, tot_res, union_pi_res`. -Renamed target: `labor_mkt_res_{D,F}` -> `nkpc_w_res_{D,F}`. +No targets are renamed or removed. ```python unknowns_tp = [ @@ -145,9 +133,9 @@ unknowns_tp = [ ] targets_tp = [ 'deposit_mkt_D','K_res_D','n_inter_val_D','div_res_D','capital_res_D','q_res_D', - 'b_gov_res_D','b_F_D_res','nkpc_w_res_D','w_res_D','nkpc_p_res_D', + 'b_gov_res_D','b_F_D_res','labor_mkt_res_D','w_res_D','nkpc_p_res_D', 'deposit_mkt_F','K_res_F','n_inter_val_F','div_res_F','capital_res_F','q_res_F', - 'b_gov_res_F','b_D_F_res','nkpc_w_res_F','w_res_F','nkpc_p_res_F', + 'b_gov_res_F','b_D_F_res','labor_mkt_res_F','w_res_F','nkpc_p_res_F', 'goods_mkt_D','rb_D_res','rb_F_res','tot_res','union_pi_res', ] ``` @@ -155,50 +143,45 @@ targets_tp = [ ## Steady-state neutrality Markups are neutralised by subsidy, so **the steady state is bit-identical to -today's**. With `pi_i_ss = 0` and `mc_i_ss = 1/mu_p_i`, all five new residuals are +today's**. With `pi_i_ss = 0` and `mc_i_ss = 1/mu_p_i`, all four new residuals are *exactly* zero at the existing steady state: | Residual | At SS | |---|---| | `nkpc_p_res_i` | `0 - 0 - kappa_p*(mu_p*(1/mu_p) - 1) = 0` | | `w_res_i` | `w - 1*(1-alpha)Y/N = 0` (today's condition) | -| `pi_w_i` | `(1)(1) - 1 = 0` | -| `nkpc_w_res_i` | `0 - 0 - kappa_w*0 = 0` (gap zero by `labor_ss_i`) | | `tot_res` | `1 - 1 = 0` | | `union_pi_res` | `0` | -`K`, `rk`, `w`, `N`, the spread, `EL_price_D`, the IC-delta consistency check, -`assert_gk_well_posed`, and every Walras residual are therefore unchanged. -`mu_w` stays at **1.0** — it is the steady-state neutralising device, while a -finite `epsilon_w = 11` governs the wage-curve slope. `labor_ss_{D,F}`'s `vphi` -calibration is untouched. +`labor_mkt_res_{D,F}` is unchanged and already zero. `K`, `rk`, `w`, `N`, the +spread, `EL_price_D`, the IC-delta consistency check, `assert_gk_well_posed`, and +every Walras residual are therefore unchanged. `mu_w` stays at 1.0 and +`labor_ss_{D,F}`'s `vphi` calibration is untouched. `steady_state.py` needs only `mc_{D,F} = 1/mu_p_{D,F}` and `pi_{D,F} = 0.0` seeded into `calibration_start` so `ss_final` carries them into the dynamic solve. -## The flex model is the exact `kappa -> inf` limit +## The flex model is the exact `kappa_p -> inf` limit -Dividing each Phillips-curve residual by `kappa` and letting `kappa -> inf` gives -back `gap_w_i = 0` (today's `labor_mkt_res_i`) and `mu_p*mc = 1` (today's -`w_res_i`) — identically, not approximately. +Dividing the Phillips-curve residual by `kappa_p` and letting `kappa_p -> inf` +gives back `mu_p*mc = 1`, hence today's `w_res_i` — identically, not +approximately. The labour block never changes, so nothing else has to be argued. Two consequences: - **No `STICKY` switch is needed.** The flex robustness run is a calibration - override `kappa_p = kappa_w = 1e4` through - `experiments/common.calibration_override`. No branching inside the equations - and no second code path to drift — the failure mode CLAUDE.md records for the - retired `audit_artifacts/` harness. -- **It supplies the regression gate** (rollout step 1). Very large `kappa` may be - ill-conditioned; if `1e4` fails to converge, step down and record the largest + override `kappa_p = 1e4` through `experiments/common.calibration_override`. No + branching inside the equations and no second code path to drift — the failure + mode CLAUDE.md records for the retired `audit_artifacts/` harness. +- **It supplies the regression gate** (rollout step 1). Very large `kappa_p` may + be ill-conditioned; if `1e4` fails to converge, step down and record the largest value that does. ## The het block is unchanged -Hours become demand-determined and are rationed in proportion to productivity -`e` — already exactly how `income_D` distributes labour income -(`code/equations_D.py:66`) — and the GHH disutility already takes aggregate `N_D`. -That is the standard union-wage-setting assumption. Nothing in the EGM changes. +Nothing in the EGM changes. Labour supply still runs off the unchanged GHH +condition, and `income_D` distributes labour income proportional to productivity +`e` exactly as before (`code/equations_D.py:66`). ## Rotemberg resource costs are omitted @@ -214,16 +197,15 @@ on the whole change. ## Calibration -New parameters in `code/calibration.py`. The slope formulae are evaluated at +New parameters in `code/calibration.py`. The slope formula is evaluated at `beta = 0.985`; `beta_D` and `beta_F` are separately solved SS unknowns near that -value, and the slopes are fixed calibration constants, not functions of the -solved betas. +value, and the slope is a fixed calibration constant, not a function of the solved +betas. | Parameter | Value | Basis | |---|---|---| | `mu_p_D/F` | 1.20 | `epsilon_p = 6`, standard. **Free to first order** — see below | | `kappa_p_D/F` | 0.0871 | Calvo `theta_p = 0.75`, `(1-theta)(1-beta*theta)/theta`. Euro-area IPN median price duration ~4 quarters (Alvarez et al. 2006; Dhyne et al. 2006) | -| `kappa_w_D/F` | 0.0038 | `theta_w = 0.75`, `epsilon_w = 11`, `phi = 1/frisch = 2`: `(1-theta)(1-beta*theta)/(theta*(1+epsilon_w*phi))` | | `omega_pi_D` | 0.071 | `1 - kappa_cb_F`, the already-documented renormalised capital key (BuBa 26.1 / BoG 2.0 of the euro-area key) | ### `mu_p` does not matter to first order @@ -264,13 +246,14 @@ anything.** Doing this after would mean validating two changes at once, and CLAUDE.md records that a drifting duplicate model is what invalidated `audit_artifacts/`. -**Step 1 — structural-equivalence gate.** Add the six blocks, wire the 27x27 -system, run at `kappa = 1e4`. Must reproduce the current baseline IRFs to solver -tolerance and hold every threshold: `goods_mkt_D <= 1e-14`, `goods_mkt_F` and -`ca_res_D <= 1e-7`, `deposit_mkt_D/F <= 1e-13`. If this fails the wiring is wrong -and nothing downstream is worth debugging. +**Step 1 — structural-equivalence gate.** Add the four blocks (two price NKPCs, +two global), wire the 27x27 system, run at `kappa_p = 1e4`. Must reproduce the +current baseline IRFs to solver tolerance and hold every threshold: +`goods_mkt_D <= 1e-14`, `goods_mkt_F` and `ca_res_D <= 1e-7`, +`deposit_mkt_D/F <= 1e-13`. If this fails the wiring is wrong and nothing +downstream is worth debugging. -**Step 2 — dial `kappa` to calibrated values.** Check residuals, doom-loop signs +**Step 2 — dial `kappa_p` to 0.0871.** Check residuals, doom-loop signs (`n_inter_D[0] < 0`, `Y_D[0] < 0`), stability (`b_gov_D[499] ~ 0`), the IC-delta consistency check, and `assert_gk_well_posed`. @@ -289,22 +272,17 @@ SPEC.md and CLAUDE.md. `code/main.py` remains the structural regression test. On top of it: -- **Equivalence:** at `kappa_p = kappa_w = 1e4`, IRFs match the pre-change - baseline to solver tolerance. +- **Equivalence:** at `kappa_p = 1e4`, IRFs match the pre-change baseline to + solver tolerance. - **Steady state:** every solved SS object is bit-identical to `main`'s. - **Residual thresholds:** unchanged, as listed in step 1. - **Sign checks:** `n_inter_D[0]` and `Y_D[0]` both negative on the default shock. - **E2 closure:** dY decomposition still asserts at 1e-7. -- **Slope sweep:** `kappa_w` in {0.002, 0.0038, 0.01, 0.03} and `kappa_p` in - {0.03, 0.087, 0.2}; report the stable region. This is a required robustness - table regardless. +- **Slope sweep:** `kappa_p` in {0.03, 0.087, 0.2}; report the stable region. This + is a required robustness table regardless. ## Risks -**`kappa_w = 0.0038` is flat — wages are quite rigid.** Against a model with -documented near-unit-root and explosive regions (F-1, GK-2), that may -destabilise. Mitigated by the slope sweep above. - **The `psi_lambda_B` re-tune may land in a breakdown region.** CLAUDE.md puts the documented breakdown around 4-5 at `n_inter = 3.0`. Step 3 must re-verify stability at whatever value it lands on, not merely hit the moment. @@ -313,6 +291,10 @@ stability at whatever value it lands on, not merely hit the moment. E3 does two re-solves, so `experiments/run_all.py --skip-e3` matters more during iteration. +**The rigidity may move very little.** See *Benchmark* — in the closest published +model the nominal side does almost no propagation work. Step 1's gate and step 2's +comparison will show this early, before the recalibration in step 3 is spent. + ## Limitations to state in the paper **The demand channel is relative-price, not intertemporal.** Excluding the union @@ -323,10 +305,13 @@ the markup wedge in labour demand. That is a defensible mechanism and *is* the internal-devaluation story for 2010-12, but it is not the textbook monetary channel, and the paper must say which one it claims. +**Wages are flexible.** Adjustment is not shifted from wages onto hours, so the +model is silent on that component of distributional incidence. + **Steady-state markups are subsidised away**, so the profit-income channel is absent. Live markups (`mu_p ~ 1.2`) would put pure profits at ~17% of output as a new, highly concentrated household income stream — which would change E4 incidence -on its own. Deferred to a follow-on spec. +on its own. ## Benchmark: Bi, Foerster and Traum (2026) @@ -340,8 +325,8 @@ Greece/Germany 2010-12. | | Bi-Foerster-Traum | This spec | |---|---|---| | Price rigidity | Rotemberg, exact nonlinear (their eq. 2.14) | Rotemberg, linear-equivalent | -| Wage rigidity | **none** — flexible, `chi*L^sigma_l = U_c*w` (A.9) | wage NKPC, both countries | -| SS markup | **live**, `theta^c = 11` -> `mc_ss = 10/11` | subsidy-neutralised, SS bit-identical | +| Wage rigidity | none — flexible, `chi*L^sigma_l = U_c*w` (A.9) | **none** (same) | +| SS markup | live, `theta^c = 11` -> `mc_ss = 10/11` | subsidy-neutralised, SS bit-identical | | Firm profits | routed to representative household | absent (neutralised) | | Nominal anchor | Taylor rule, `phi_pi=1.6, phi_y=0.07, phi_r=0.85` | union-inflation normalisation, no rate | | Union weights | 0.5 / 0.5 | `omega_pi_D = 0.071` | @@ -354,17 +339,15 @@ Greece/Germany 2010-12. `kappa_p = 0.0871` at `beta = 0.985` is the same number to within 3%; the gap is entirely the discount factor. No change required. -**The wage slope has no benchmark in this model class.** They have no wage curve. -Note also that `kappa_w`'s flatness is driven substantially by the *preference* -parameter, not by any wage-rigidity estimate: the `(1 + epsilon_w/frisch)` -denominator is 23 at `frisch = 0.5` versus 12 at their `sigma_l = 1`. This is why -the slope sweep is load-bearing rather than cosmetic. +**The scope now matches theirs on the labour side.** Both are price-sticky with +flexible wages, which removes the need to defend a wage-curve slope that has no +benchmark in this model class. **They never report a flexible-price counterfactual.** Their Table 1 decomposes over the liquidity-risk channel, the fiscal-limit shift, and the debt change — -never over price stickiness. The `kappa -> inf` gate in this spec produces exactly -that counterfactual as a by-product, so it is reportable output, not merely a -regression test. +never over price stickiness. The `kappa_p -> inf` gate in this spec produces +exactly that counterfactual as a by-product, so it is reportable output, not +merely a regression test. **Their nominal side does little propagation work, and that is a live risk here.** Inflation moves +/-0.1% while investment moves 9% and output 0.6% (their Figure @@ -383,11 +366,12 @@ own design pass. `add-nkwpc` (commit `2377f79`, off `08e1010`, pre-reorganisation) is a single 26-line commit adding `wage_setting_{D,F}` only. It was never wired into the model -list and has no `kappa_w` calibration. It is a **template, not code to port**: +list and has no `kappa_w` calibration. **Nothing from it is used** — this spec is +price-side only, and the branch has no price-side content. Recorded here so the +branch is not revisited without knowing what is in it: - It is a **real-wage** Rotemberg curve (`pi_w = w/w(-1) - 1` on the *real* wage, explicitly "no CB needed") — a real adjustment friction, not a nominal rigidity. - There is no price-side counterpart at all. - It divides the MRS by `UCE_D`, which is correct under separable preferences but **wrong under the GHH preferences this model uses** — cf. `labor_ss_D` and `labor_market_D`, neither of which contains `UCE`. @@ -397,7 +381,4 @@ list and has no `kappa_w` calibration. It is a **template, not code to port**: stop "the household wealth effect" translating into `N`. GHH preferences have no wealth effect on labour supply by construction — that is the point of GHH, and both `labor_market_D` and `labor_ss_D` show marginal utility cancelling out of - the intratemporal condition. What sticky wages actually buy here is that - adjustment moves off the real wage and onto hours, which is what the - distributional goal needs (hours are rationed proportional to `e`), but the - channel must be described correctly in the paper. + the intratemporal condition. From d92c39fd18c315953b090b9e232f4090ffca10a1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 15:23:49 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 04/42] Spec: add nominal deposits; route the markup rent Two additions, both surfaced by asking whether the spec fixes C_D[0] = +0.2164%. Nominal deposits. rdep_{D,F} is reinterpreted as a nominal rate i_dep_{D,F} and stays the free unknown clearing deposit_mkt_{D,F} -- no absorber, no cross-border claim, external_account_D untouched, still 27x27. The absorber problem belonged to the Taylor rule alone, not to nominal contracts. deposit_return already has the right shape (predetermined rate x period-t deflator) so it is a one-line change, and T-2 is not reopened. Two derived real rates, ex-post and ex-ante, substitute into bank_return, capital_fund, P1 and the bond FOCs per a stated table; all three collapse to today's rdep at pi = 0, so the SS stays bit-identical. Banks hold real assets against nominal liabilities, so deflation deepens the net-worth loss -- Fisher-Bernanke, aimed at Y_D[0] being two orders of magnitude below the benchmark. Markup rent routing, which was a genuine gap: with the markup in labour demand only, w*N = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)Y while mpk is untouched, leaving an unrouted rent off steady state -- a Walras leak of the W-1/W-2 class. Distributed proportional to productivity e (Auclert-Rognlie-Straub), so household labour+profit income is (1-alpha)Y*e exactly as in the flex model, the wedge affects hiring only, and the marginal wage stays w so labor_market is unchanged. The textbook lump-sum rebate was rejected: markups are countercyclical, so it would push C_D[0] further up. Rollout is now staged so price stickiness and the Fisher channel are separately attributable, and the spec states plainly that C_D[0] may not flip -- BFT get consumption rising on impact too, with a Taylor rule, nominal debt and a loan-in-advance constraint. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- .../2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md | 506 ++++++++++-------- 1 file changed, 294 insertions(+), 212 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md b/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md index 38acdc4..93ca289 100644 --- a/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md +++ b/docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -# Nominal rigidities: price Phillips curves +# Nominal rigidities: price Phillips curves and nominal deposits **Date:** 2026-08-05 **Branch:** `add-nkpc` @@ -6,74 +6,101 @@ ## Goal -Add genuine nominal price rigidity to the two-country monetary-union HANK model, -and make the sticky model the paper's new baseline. The current model is fully -real — `sj.create_model` is named *"Flex Price & Wage, No CB"* -(`code/full_model.py:91`) and there is no inflation variable, nominal rate, or -policy rule anywhere in `code/`. - -The rigidity must deliver: - -1. **Demand-determined output** — a sovereign-risk shock contracts activity - through demand, not only through the bank/supply side, via a markup wedge in - labour demand and a sluggish terms of trade. -2. **Distributional incidence** — the changed path of output, wages and the terms - of trade alters how the shock lands across the E4 income quintiles. +Add nominal price rigidity and nominal deposit contracts to the two-country +monetary-union HANK model, and make the sticky model the paper's new baseline. +The current model is fully real — `sj.create_model` is named *"Flex Price & Wage, +No CB"* (`code/full_model.py:91`) and there is no inflation variable, nominal +rate, or policy rule anywhere in `code/`. + +1. **Demand-determined output.** Today `N` is purely supply-determined: combining + the two flexible labour conditions gives `(1-alpha)Y/(N*P_CES) = + vphi*N^(1/frisch)`, a function of `Z`, `K` and `P_CES` alone. A markup wedge in + labour demand breaks that. +2. **Fisher debt deflation on bank balance sheets.** Nominal deposits against real + assets make banks net nominal debtors, so a deflation at impact raises the real + value of their liabilities and deepens the net-worth loss. This targets the + fact that `Y_D[0] = -0.0149%` is two orders of magnitude below the benchmark's + `-0.6%`. +3. **Distributional incidence** — the changed paths of output, wages, the terms of + trade and the real deposit return alter how the shock lands across the E4 + income quintiles. + +### The `C_D[0]` motivation, stated honestly + +At the live calibration `C_D[0] = +0.2164%` against `Y_D[0] = -0.0149%` and +`I_D[0] = -0.7718%` (`docs/STATE.md`, E1 passive). `docs/HANDOFF.md` already flags +this: the model's crisis is an investment bust, not a consumption bust, which is +counterfactual for Greece 2010-13. + +**This spec is not guaranteed to flip that sign, and must not be sold as if it +were.** Two forces pull opposite ways once deposits are nominal: + +- *Intertemporal substitution* — expected deflation raises the ex-ante real + deposit rate; at `eis = 0.5` households substitute out of current consumption. + Pushes `C_D[0]` **down**. +- *Impact revaluation* — households are net nominal creditors, so the same + deflation is a windfall on the existing deposit stock. Pushes `C_D[0]` **up**. + +Which dominates is quantitative. What is certain is that the channel becomes +connected at all: the model currently generates `pi_D = -0.93 * dlog p` and lets +it affect nothing. For context, Bi, Foerster and Traum (2026) get consumption +rising on impact too — with a Taylor rule, nominal debt *and* a loan-in-advance +constraint (their §4.1: "Consumption rises briefly on impact, but quickly turns +negative"). The impact sign is a property of this model class. ## Explicitly out of scope -**Wage rigidity (author decision, 2026-08-05).** Price stickiness only. The -labour market keeps today's flexible GHH condition `labor_market_{D,F}` -unchanged. This matches Bi, Foerster and Traum (2026), who also have price -stickiness and flexible wages. Consequence to note: the hours-rationing channel -is absent, so distributional incidence works only through the output/wage/terms- -of-trade path, not through adjustment shifting from wages onto hours. - -**The union monetary channel (author decision, reaffirmed 2026-08-05).** No ECB -policy rate, no Taylor rule, no Fisher equation, no change to the deposit-market -architecture. **All financial contracts stay real** — deposits, sovereign bonds, -coupons, and the T-2 predetermined deposit rate are untouched. This is a -deliberate boundary and the seam a referee will probe, so the paper must state -it; the consequence is recorded under *Limitations*. - -A Taylor rule was scoped and rejected on 2026-08-05. The blocker is structural, -not effort: a policy rule only has traction if it pins a real rate, and pinning -`rdep_D`/`rdep_F` frees both deposit-market conditions, which then need an +**Wage rigidity (author decision, 2026-08-05).** Price stickiness only; the labour +market keeps today's flexible GHH condition `labor_market_{D,F}` unchanged. This +matches Bi-Foerster-Traum. Consequence: no hours-rationing channel, so +distributional incidence works only through the output / wage / terms-of-trade / +deposit-return path. + +**A Taylor rule (author decision, 2026-08-05).** The blocker is structural, not +effort: a policy rule only has traction if it pins a real rate, and pinning +`rdep_D`/`rdep_F` frees *both* deposit-market conditions, which then need an absorber — either a zero-net-supply cross-border banking claim (rewriting `external_account_D`, currently at 1e-7) or an ECB reserve asset inside the GK incentive constraint. A deposit spread over the policy rate does not work, since a free spread absorbs the rate one-for-one and the rule does nothing. -Also out of scope: live steady-state markups and the profit-income channel (see -*Steady-state neutrality*), and a Sims-Wu loan-in-advance constraint (see -*Benchmark*). Both are candidate follow-on specs. +**Note this is *not* what makes deposits nominal expensive.** The absorber +problem belongs to the policy rule alone. With no rule, the deposit rate stays a +free unknown and simply becomes nominal — see below. + +**Nominal sovereign bonds (author decision, 2026-08-05).** Bonds, coupons and the +external account stay real. This is a **deliberate asymmetry** that maximises +banks' Fisher exposure, and the paper must label it as such: euro-area sovereign +debt is nominal, Bi-Foerster-Traum deflate debt and net worth alike, and a referee +will ask. Making bonds nominal would touch `bond_return`, `bond_price_ss`, +`budget_residual`, `government_ss`, both bond FOCs, and `external_account_D` +(1e-7, and it carries the W-2 `p`-conversion). Candidate follow-on spec. + +Also out of scope: live steady-state markups, and a Sims-Wu loan-in-advance +constraint (see *Benchmark*). ## Why the closure works without a policy rate -In a monetary union the nominal exchange rate is fixed at 1, so the terms of -trade **is** the accumulated inflation differential: +In a monetary union the nominal exchange rate is fixed at 1, so the terms of trade +**is** the accumulated inflation differential: ``` p = P_F / P_D => p_t / p_{t-1} = (1 + pi_F) / (1 + pi_D) ``` -`p` is already an unknown in the model (target `goods_mkt_D`). That identity pins -the inflation *differential* off an object that already exists. One further -normalisation pins the *level*: +`p` is already an unknown (target `goods_mkt_D`), so the identity pins the +inflation *differential* off an existing object. One normalisation pins the level: ``` omega_pi_D * pi_D + (1 - omega_pi_D) * pi_F = 0 ``` i.e. the ECB stabilises union-wide producer-price inflation — the `phi_pi -> inf` -limit of a Taylor rule. This is stated as an abstraction, not a modelled rule. -Because financial contracts remain real, no policy rate or Fisher relation is -needed anywhere. - -Given the `p` path, these two equations determine `pi_D` and `pi_F`; the two price -Phillips curves then determine `mc_D` and `mc_F`; labour demand determines `w`; -today's unchanged labour-supply condition determines `N`; and `goods_mkt_D` -determines `p`. No redundancy. +limit of a Taylor rule, stated as an abstraction rather than a modelled rule. +Given the `p` path these two determine `pi_D` and `pi_F`; the Phillips curves +determine `mc_D` and `mc_F`; labour demand determines `w`; the unchanged labour- +supply condition determines `N`; the deposit markets determine `i_dep_{D,F}`; and +`goods_mkt_D` determines `p`. No redundancy. ## Equations @@ -85,9 +112,9 @@ For each country `i` in `{D, F}`. nkpc_p_res_i = pi_i - beta_i * pi_i(+1) - kappa_p_i * (mu_p_i * mc_i - 1) ``` -Rotemberg form in producer-price inflation. The gap is written as a **ratio**, so -it is unit-free and linearises to exactly `mc_hat`; published Calvo slopes are -therefore directly usable for `kappa_p` with no steady-state rescaling. +Rotemberg form in producer-price inflation. The gap is a **ratio**, so it is +unit-free and linearises to exactly `mc_hat`; published Calvo slopes are directly +usable for `kappa_p` with no steady-state rescaling. ### Labour demand (changed, `labor_demand_{D,F}`) @@ -96,14 +123,80 @@ w_res_i = w_i - mu_p_i * mc_i * (1 - alpha_i) * Y_i / N_i ``` The `mu_p_i` factor **is** the production subsidy `tau_s = 1 - 1/mu_p`. At -`mc_i = 1/mu_p_i` this collapses to today's competitive condition -`w = (1-alpha) Y / N` identically. +`mc_i = 1/mu_p_i` this collapses to today's competitive condition identically. + +### Markup rent (new, `firm_profit_{D,F}`) — required, not optional + +With the markup in labour demand only, factor payments stop exhausting output: +`w*N = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)Y` while the capital return is untouched +(`capital_adj_D` keeps `mpk = alpha*Z*K^(alpha-1)*N^(1-alpha)`). Off steady state +`mu_p*mc != 1` leaves an unrouted rent, which is a Walras leak of the W-1 / W-2 +class. It **must** be routed. + +``` +profit_i = (1 - mu_p_i * mc_i) * (1 - alpha_i) * Y_i +``` + +Distributed to households **in proportion to productivity `e`** (Auclert-Rognlie- +Straub), so `income_i`'s numerator gains `profit_i * e_grid_i`. Household labour +plus profit income is then `w*N*e + profit*e = (1-alpha)*Y*e` — *identical to the +flexible model* — and factor payments exhaust output exactly. + +Three properties make this the right rule rather than the textbook lump-sum one: + +- Markups are **countercyclical** (`mc` falls in a downturn), so a lump-sum profit + rebate would hand households rising income exactly when output falls, pushing + `C_D[0]` further up — the opposite of the motivation. +- The wedge then affects the **firm's hiring decision only**, which is the channel + goal 1 wants, and leaves household income unchanged. +- The distribution is proportional to the household's *type* `e`, not to hours, so + the marginal wage is still `w_i` and **`labor_market_{D,F}` is unchanged**. + `labor_ss_{D,F}`'s `vphi` calibration is untouched (`profit = 0` at SS). + +### Nominal deposits (changed, `deposit_return_{D,F}` + substitutions) + +`rdep_{D,F}` is reinterpreted as a **nominal** rate `i_dep_{D,F}`. It remains the +free unknown clearing `deposit_mkt_{D,F}` — no absorber, no cross-border claim, +`external_account_D` untouched, count unchanged. + +``` +Rgross_i = (1 + i_dep_i(-1)) * P_CES_i(-1) / P_CES_i / (1 + pi_i) +``` + +`deposit_return_i` already has exactly this shape — a predetermined rate times a +period-t deflator — so this is a one-line change. **T-2 is not reopened:** the +rate stays locked at t-1; only the deflator becomes period-t, which the block +already does. T-2 was about using a period-t *unknown rate*. + +Two derived real rates (`@simple` outputs, **not** unknowns): + +``` +rdep_expost_i = (1 + i_dep_i(-1)) / (1 + pi_i) - 1 # realised at t on t-1 deposits +rdep_exante_i = (1 + i_dep_i) / (1 + pi_i(+1)) - 1 # locked at t, for t -> t+1 +``` + +Substitutions, following the existing timing convention exactly: + +| Block | Today | Becomes | +|---|---|---| +| `bank_return_i` | `rdep_i(-1)` | `rdep_expost_i` | +| `capital_fund_i` | `rdep_i(-1)` | `rdep_expost_i` | +| `intermediation_P1_i` | `rdep_i` | `rdep_exante_i` | +| `divert_bond_foc_i` | `rdep_i` | `rdep_exante_i` | +| `divert_portfolio_adj` | `rdep_D`, `rdep_F` | `rdep_exante_{D,F}` | +| `steady_auxilliary_i`, `smart_steady_i` | `rdep_i` | `i_dep_i` (SS only, `pi = 0`) | + +At the steady state `pi = 0` and all three rates collapse to today's `rdep`. + +Because banks hold **real** assets against **nominal** liabilities, they are net +nominal debtors: deflation raises the real value of deposits and deepens the +net-worth loss. That is the Fisher-Bernanke channel goal 2 is buying. ### Labour supply — unchanged -`labor_market_{D,F}` stays exactly as it is (`code/equations_D.py:287`), remains +`labor_market_{D,F}` (`code/equations_D.py:287`) stays exactly as it is, remains in all three dynamic block lists, and keeps `labor_mkt_res_{D,F}` as the target -for `N_{D,F}`. Nothing in the labour block changes. +for `N_{D,F}`. ### Global (new, `equations_global.py`) @@ -114,21 +207,21 @@ union_pi_res = omega_pi_D * pi_D + (1 - omega_pi_D) * pi_F ### Discounting -The curve discounts at the constant `beta_i` rather than at `SDF_i`. Because -`pi_ss = 0`, the SDF deviation multiplies a zero and the two are **identical to -first order** — and the model is solved by linearised `solve_jacobian`. The choice -is immaterial; `beta_i` is the textbook form. +The Phillips curve discounts at constant `beta_i` rather than `SDF_i`. Because +`pi_ss = 0` the SDF deviation multiplies a zero, so the two are **identical to +first order** and the model is solved by linearised `solve_jacobian`. Immaterial; +`beta_i` is the textbook form. ## System: 23x23 -> 27x27 -New unknowns: `mc_D, pi_D, mc_F, pi_F`. -New targets: `nkpc_p_res_D, nkpc_p_res_F, tot_res, union_pi_res`. -No targets are renamed or removed. +New unknowns: `mc_D, pi_D, mc_F, pi_F`. New targets: `nkpc_p_res_D, +nkpc_p_res_F, tot_res, union_pi_res`. `rdep_{D,F}` is renamed `i_dep_{D,F}`; no +targets are renamed or removed. ```python unknowns_tp = [ - 'K_D','n_inter_D','div_D','I_D','Q_D','b_gov_D','N_D','b_F_D','w_D','rdep_D','mc_D','pi_D', - 'K_F','n_inter_F','div_F','I_F','Q_F','b_gov_F','N_F','b_D_F','w_F','rdep_F','mc_F','pi_F', + 'K_D','n_inter_D','div_D','I_D','Q_D','b_gov_D','N_D','b_F_D','w_D','i_dep_D','mc_D','pi_D', + 'K_F','n_inter_F','div_F','I_F','Q_F','b_gov_F','N_F','b_D_F','w_F','i_dep_F','mc_F','pi_F', 'p','q_b_D','q_b_F', ] targets_tp = [ @@ -142,243 +235,232 @@ targets_tp = [ ## Steady-state neutrality -Markups are neutralised by subsidy, so **the steady state is bit-identical to -today's**. With `pi_i_ss = 0` and `mc_i_ss = 1/mu_p_i`, all four new residuals are -*exactly* zero at the existing steady state: +Markups are subsidy-neutralised and `pi_ss = 0`, so **the steady state is +bit-identical to today's**. All new residuals are *exactly* zero at it: | Residual | At SS | |---|---| | `nkpc_p_res_i` | `0 - 0 - kappa_p*(mu_p*(1/mu_p) - 1) = 0` | | `w_res_i` | `w - 1*(1-alpha)Y/N = 0` (today's condition) | +| `profit_i` | `(1 - 1)*(1-alpha)Y = 0` | | `tot_res` | `1 - 1 = 0` | | `union_pi_res` | `0` | +| `rdep_expost_i`, `rdep_exante_i` | both `= i_dep_i = ` today's `rdep_i` | `labor_mkt_res_{D,F}` is unchanged and already zero. `K`, `rk`, `w`, `N`, the -spread, `EL_price_D`, the IC-delta consistency check, `assert_gk_well_posed`, and -every Walras residual are therefore unchanged. `mu_w` stays at 1.0 and -`labor_ss_{D,F}`'s `vphi` calibration is untouched. - -`steady_state.py` needs only `mc_{D,F} = 1/mu_p_{D,F}` and `pi_{D,F} = 0.0` seeded -into `calibration_start` so `ss_final` carries them into the dynamic solve. +spread, `EL_price_D`, the IC-delta check, `assert_gk_well_posed` and every Walras +residual are unchanged. `steady_state.py` needs only `mc_{D,F} = 1/mu_p_{D,F}` and +`pi_{D,F} = 0.0` seeded into `calibration_start`. ## The flex model is the exact `kappa_p -> inf` limit Dividing the Phillips-curve residual by `kappa_p` and letting `kappa_p -> inf` -gives back `mu_p*mc = 1`, hence today's `w_res_i` — identically, not -approximately. The labour block never changes, so nothing else has to be argued. - -Two consequences: - -- **No `STICKY` switch is needed.** The flex robustness run is a calibration - override `kappa_p = 1e4` through `experiments/common.calibration_override`. No - branching inside the equations and no second code path to drift — the failure - mode CLAUDE.md records for the retired `audit_artifacts/` harness. -- **It supplies the regression gate** (rollout step 1). Very large `kappa_p` may - be ill-conditioned; if `1e4` fails to converge, step down and record the largest - value that does. - -## The het block is unchanged +gives `mu_p*mc = 1`, hence today's `w_res_i` and `profit_i = 0` — identically, not +approximately. With `profit = 0`, `income_i` reverts exactly, and with `pi` driven +only by the (then flexible) terms of trade the nominal deposit terms still bite, +so the limit recovers **flex prices with nominal deposits**, not the current +`main`. See the rollout for how the gate is staged around this. -Nothing in the EGM changes. Labour supply still runs off the unchanged GHH -condition, and `income_D` distributes labour income proportional to productivity -`e` exactly as before (`code/equations_D.py:66`). +No `STICKY` switch is needed: the flexible-price run is a calibration override +`kappa_p = 1e4` through `experiments/common.calibration_override`. No branching +inside the equations and no second code path to drift — the failure mode CLAUDE.md +records for the retired `audit_artifacts/` harness. ## Rotemberg resource costs are omitted -`(phi/2) * pi^2 * Y` is quadratic around `pi_ss = 0`, so its derivative there is -zero and `solve_jacobian` linearises — it **cannot** move any IRF. Including it -would inject a nonlinear term into `goods_mkt_D`, which currently holds at 1e-14. -It would matter only for a second-order welfare exercise; E1's welfare is -first-order off `U_D = X_D / C_D_ss`. - -A useful side effect: the `market_clearing_D` identity is untouched, so E2's -self-verifying dY decomposition must still close at 1e-7 — an independent check -on the whole change. +`(phi/2)*pi^2*Y` is quadratic around `pi_ss = 0`, so its derivative there is zero +and `solve_jacobian` linearises — it **cannot** move any IRF. Including it would +inject a nonlinear term into `goods_mkt_D`, which holds at 1e-14. It would matter +only for a second-order welfare exercise; E1's welfare is first-order off +`U_D = X_D / C_D_ss`. Side effect: `market_clearing_D` is untouched, so E2's +self-verifying dY decomposition must still close at 1e-7 — an independent check on +the whole change. ## Calibration -New parameters in `code/calibration.py`. The slope formula is evaluated at -`beta = 0.985`; `beta_D` and `beta_F` are separately solved SS unknowns near that -value, and the slope is a fixed calibration constant, not a function of the solved -betas. +New parameters in `code/calibration.py`. The slope is evaluated at `beta = 0.985`; +`beta_D` and `beta_F` are separately solved SS unknowns near that value, and the +slope is a fixed constant, not a function of the solved betas. | Parameter | Value | Basis | |---|---|---| | `mu_p_D/F` | 1.20 | `epsilon_p = 6`, standard. **Free to first order** — see below | | `kappa_p_D/F` | 0.0871 | Calvo `theta_p = 0.75`, `(1-theta)(1-beta*theta)/theta`. Euro-area IPN median price duration ~4 quarters (Alvarez et al. 2006; Dhyne et al. 2006) | -| `omega_pi_D` | 0.071 | `1 - kappa_cb_F`, the already-documented renormalised capital key (BuBa 26.1 / BoG 2.0 of the euro-area key) | +| `omega_pi_D` | 0.071 | `1 - kappa_cb_F`, the documented renormalised capital key (BuBa 26.1 / BoG 2.0) | ### `mu_p` does not matter to first order Under subsidy-neutralisation the gap `mu_p*mc - 1` linearises to exactly `mc_hat` -irrespective of `mu_p` (since `mu_p * mc_ss = 1`), and labour demand's steady -state is `w = (1-alpha)Y/N` either way. So `mu_p` is a free normalisation in this -build and needs no defending. It becomes a genuine calibration choice only if the -live-markup / profit-income follow-on is taken up. +irrespective of `mu_p` (since `mu_p*mc_ss = 1`), and labour demand's steady state +is `w = (1-alpha)Y/N` either way. `mu_p` is a free normalisation here and needs no +defending. It becomes a genuine choice only if the live-markup follow-on is taken. ### Do not use model GDP weights for `omega_pi_D` The model normalises `Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1`, so GDP weights would give -`omega_pi_D ~ 0.5`, implying a Greek deflation forces German inflation up nearly -one-for-one — the opposite of 2010-12. The capital key (~0.071, and ~0.076 on -actual 2011 GR/DE nominal GDP) is the correct weight and is already in the -codebase with a citation. - -Working the closure through makes the stake concrete. Combining the two global -equations gives `pi_D = -(1 - omega_pi_D) * dlog p` and -`pi_F = omega_pi_D * dlog p`. At `omega_pi_D = 0.071`, **93% of any -terms-of-trade adjustment appears as D (Greek) producer-price deflation and 7% as -F (German) inflation** — the 2010-12 internal-devaluation pattern. At 0.5 it -splits evenly, which is counterfactual for GR/DE. - -Bi, Foerster and Traum (2026) use 0.5/0.5, but for Italy/Germany as two -comparably-sized blocs, and inside a *Taylor rule* where the weight sets a policy -response rather than allocating a given differential. Report the choice and note -the 0.5 alternative; do not adopt it. +`omega_pi_D ~ 0.5`, implying Greek deflation forces German inflation up nearly +one-for-one — the opposite of 2010-12. Combining the two global equations gives +`pi_D = -(1 - omega_pi_D)*dlog p` and `pi_F = omega_pi_D*dlog p`, so at +`omega_pi_D = 0.071` **93% of any terms-of-trade adjustment appears as D +producer-price deflation and 7% as F inflation** — the internal-devaluation +pattern. At 0.5 it splits evenly, which is counterfactual for GR/DE. + +Bi-Foerster-Traum use 0.5/0.5, but for Italy/Germany as comparably-sized blocs and +inside a *Taylor rule*, where the weight sets a policy response rather than +allocating a given differential. Report the choice; do not adopt it. + +**This parameter is now load-bearing twice over.** It scales `pi_D`, which drives +the Fisher revaluation on bank balance sheets. Include it in the sweep. ## Rollout -**Step 0 — refactor first, as a pure no-op.** `full_model.py:69`, `tpi.py:145` -and `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py:160` each hardcode the `create_model` -block list. Extract one `build_block_list()` in `full_model.py` and point the -other two at it. **Verify `code/main.py` output is bit-identical before adding -anything.** Doing this after would mean validating two changes at once, and +**Step 0 — refactor first, as a pure no-op.** `full_model.py:69`, `tpi.py:145` and +`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py:160` each hardcode the `create_model` block +list. Extract one `build_block_list()` in `full_model.py` and point the other two +at it. **Verify `code/main.py` output is bit-identical before adding anything.** CLAUDE.md records that a drifting duplicate model is what invalidated `audit_artifacts/`. -**Step 1 — structural-equivalence gate.** Add the four blocks (two price NKPCs, -two global), wire the 27x27 system, run at `kappa_p = 1e4`. Must reproduce the -current baseline IRFs to solver tolerance and hold every threshold: -`goods_mkt_D <= 1e-14`, `goods_mkt_F` and `ca_res_D <= 1e-7`, -`deposit_mkt_D/F <= 1e-13`. If this fails the wiring is wrong and nothing -downstream is worth debugging. - -**Step 2 — dial `kappa_p` to 0.0871.** Check residuals, doom-loop signs -(`n_inter_D[0] < 0`, `Y_D[0] < 0`), stability (`b_gov_D[499] ~ 0`), the IC-delta -consistency check, and `assert_gk_well_posed`. - -**Step 3 — re-tune `psi_lambda_B`** to the 150bp-per-1pp-default-shock target. It -will move, because spread transmission now runs through a sticky terms of trade. - -**Step 4 — regenerate.** `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`, then -`experiments/run_all.py`, then figures. E1, E2, E3, E4 and the declining-loading -key figure are all rebuilt on the sticky model; flex becomes an appendix -comparison. - -**Step 5 — docs.** STATE.md, PROGRESS.md, HANDOFF.md (hook-enforced), plus +**Step 1 — sticky prices only, real deposits, equivalence gate.** Add the price +NKPCs, `firm_profit`, the two global blocks; wire 27x27; run at `kappa_p = 1e4` +with the deposit blocks still real. Must reproduce the current baseline IRFs to +solver tolerance and hold every threshold: `goods_mkt_D <= 1e-14`, `goods_mkt_F` +and `ca_res_D <= 1e-7`, `deposit_mkt_D/F <= 1e-13`. If this fails the wiring is +wrong and nothing downstream is worth debugging. Very large `kappa_p` may be +ill-conditioned; if `1e4` fails to converge, step down and record the largest +value that does. + +**Step 2 — dial `kappa_p` to 0.0871**, deposits still real. Check residuals, +doom-loop signs (`n_inter_D[0] < 0`, `Y_D[0] < 0`), stability +(`b_gov_D[499] ~ 0`), the IC-delta check, `assert_gk_well_posed`. **Record +`Y_D[0]`, `C_D[0]`, `I_D[0]`, `n_inter_D[0]` here** — this is the clean measure of +what price stickiness alone does, and it is a reportable result. + +**Step 3 — switch deposits to nominal.** One change at a time: this is where the +Fisher channel arrives, and it must be attributable. Re-run the same checks. +`n_inter_D[0]` must fall by *more* than at step 2; if it does not, the sign is +wrong somewhere in the ex-post/ex-ante substitution table. + +**Step 4 — re-tune `psi_lambda_B`** to the 150bp-per-1pp-default-shock target. +Expect a large move — see *Risks*. + +**Step 5 — regenerate.** `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`, then +`experiments/run_all.py`, then figures. E1-E4 and the declining-loading key figure +all rebuilt; flex-price becomes an appendix comparison. + +**Step 6 — docs.** STATE.md, PROGRESS.md, HANDOFF.md (hook-enforced), plus SPEC.md and CLAUDE.md. ## Verification `code/main.py` remains the structural regression test. On top of it: -- **Equivalence:** at `kappa_p = 1e4`, IRFs match the pre-change baseline to - solver tolerance. -- **Steady state:** every solved SS object is bit-identical to `main`'s. -- **Residual thresholds:** unchanged, as listed in step 1. +- **Equivalence (step 1):** at `kappa_p = 1e4` with real deposits, IRFs match the + pre-change baseline to solver tolerance. +- **Steady state:** every solved SS object bit-identical to `main`'s, at every step. +- **Residual thresholds:** unchanged throughout, as listed in step 1. - **Sign checks:** `n_inter_D[0]` and `Y_D[0]` both negative on the default shock. +- **Fisher sign (step 3):** `n_inter_D[0]` strictly more negative than at step 2. - **E2 closure:** dY decomposition still asserts at 1e-7. -- **Slope sweep:** `kappa_p` in {0.03, 0.087, 0.2}; report the stable region. This - is a required robustness table regardless. +- **Sweep:** `kappa_p` in {0.03, 0.087, 0.2} and `omega_pi_D` in {0.071, 0.2, 0.5}; + report the stable region. Required robustness table regardless. +- **Report `C_D[0]` explicitly** at steps 2 and 3, whatever its sign. ## Risks -**The `psi_lambda_B` re-tune may land in a breakdown region.** CLAUDE.md puts the -documented breakdown around 4-5 at `n_inter = 3.0`. Step 3 must re-verify -stability at whatever value it lands on, not merely hit the moment. +**The Fisher channel may dominate rather than supplement the doom loop.** +`D_supply ~ (theta-1)*n_inter ~ 9` against `n_inter ~ 3`, so a price-level surprise +is levered roughly 3x onto net worth. If `pi_D[0]` lands near -0.1%, that is on the +order of a 9% net-worth hit against today's -3.38%. Given F-1 and GK-2, treat +instability as a live possibility and be ready to report the `omega_pi_D` sweep as +the containing parameter. + +**`psi_lambda_B` will move a long way**, since spread transmission now runs through +both a sticky terms of trade and a Fisher revaluation. CLAUDE.md puts the +documented breakdown around 4-5 at `n_inter = 3.0`; step 4 must re-verify stability +at whatever value it lands on, not merely hit the moment. -**Solve time grows.** 23 -> 27 unknowns at T=500; expect ~3 min to become 4-5. -E3 does two re-solves, so `experiments/run_all.py --skip-e3` matters more during -iteration. +**`C_D[0]` may not change sign, or may rise further.** See *The `C_D[0]` +motivation*. Step 2 and step 3 both report it; do not commit to a claim about it in +the draft before those numbers exist. -**The rigidity may move very little.** See *Benchmark* — in the closest published -model the nominal side does almost no propagation work. Step 1's gate and step 2's -comparison will show this early, before the recalibration in step 3 is spent. +**Solve time grows.** 23 -> 27 unknowns at T=500; expect ~3 min to become 4-5. E3 +does two re-solves, so `--skip-e3` matters more during iteration. ## Limitations to state in the paper -**The demand channel is relative-price, not intertemporal.** Excluding the union -channel means there is no real-rate route from stickiness to spending. Output is -demand-determined here through the **sluggish terms of trade** — a Greek -contraction cannot depreciate `p` quickly, so net exports do not cushion it — plus -the markup wedge in labour demand. That is a defensible mechanism and *is* the -internal-devaluation story for 2010-12, but it is not the textbook monetary -channel, and the paper must say which one it claims. +**No policy rate.** There is no Taylor rule, so no conventional monetary +transmission and no "the ECB did not respond to Greece" experiment. The nominal +anchor is an assumed union-inflation stabilisation, not a modelled rule. -**Wages are flexible.** Adjustment is not shifted from wages onto hours, so the +**Sovereign bonds stay real while deposits are nominal.** A deliberate asymmetry +that maximises banks' Fisher exposure. Euro-area sovereign debt is nominal; say so. + +**Wages are flexible**, so adjustment is not shifted from wages onto hours and the model is silent on that component of distributional incidence. -**Steady-state markups are subsidised away**, so the profit-income channel is -absent. Live markups (`mu_p ~ 1.2`) would put pure profits at ~17% of output as a -new, highly concentrated household income stream — which would change E4 incidence -on its own. +**Steady-state markups are subsidised away**, so there is no profit-income level +effect — the markup rent is distributed proportional to `e` and nets out of +household income by construction. ## Benchmark: Bi, Foerster and Traum (2026) *"Asset Purchases in a Monetary Union With Default and Liquidity Risks", FRBSF -Working Paper 2025-10, https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2025-10.* The closest published -analogue to this model: two-country monetary union, Gertler-Karadi -intermediaries, endogenous sovereign default, cross-border sovereign holdings, -targeted ECB asset purchases — calibrated to Italy/Germany 2012 rather than -Greece/Germany 2010-12. +Working Paper 2025-10, https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2025-10.* Closest published +analogue: two-country monetary union, Gertler-Karadi intermediaries, endogenous +sovereign default, cross-border sovereign holdings, targeted ECB asset purchases — +calibrated Italy/Germany 2012. | | Bi-Foerster-Traum | This spec | |---|---|---| -| Price rigidity | Rotemberg, exact nonlinear (their eq. 2.14) | Rotemberg, linear-equivalent | +| Price rigidity | Rotemberg, exact nonlinear (their 2.14) | Rotemberg, linear-equivalent | | Wage rigidity | none — flexible, `chi*L^sigma_l = U_c*w` (A.9) | **none** (same) | | SS markup | live, `theta^c = 11` -> `mc_ss = 10/11` | subsidy-neutralised, SS bit-identical | -| Firm profits | routed to representative household | absent (neutralised) | +| Markup rent | lump-sum `Pi^f` to representative household | proportional to `e`, nets out of income | | Nominal anchor | Taylor rule, `phi_pi=1.6, phi_y=0.07, phi_r=0.85` | union-inflation normalisation, no rate | | Union weights | 0.5 / 0.5 | `omega_pi_D = 0.071` | | ToT identity | `rer_t/rer_{t-1} = pi*_t/pi_t` (A.80), CPI form | same relation, PPI form | -| Financial contracts | nominal (deposits, debt, net worth all deflated) | real | +| Deposits | nominal | **nominal** (same) | +| Sovereign bonds | nominal | real (deliberate asymmetry) | | Solution | 2nd-order perturbation (endogenous regime switching) | 1st-order SSJ | **The price slope agrees.** Their `psi` maps to a Calvo-equivalent slope `(1-xi)(1-beta*xi)/xi = 0.0846` at `xi_p = 0.75, beta = 0.995`. This spec's `kappa_p = 0.0871` at `beta = 0.985` is the same number to within 3%; the gap is -entirely the discount factor. No change required. - -**The scope now matches theirs on the labour side.** Both are price-sticky with -flexible wages, which removes the need to defend a wage-curve slope that has no -benchmark in this model class. +entirely the discount factor. **They never report a flexible-price counterfactual.** Their Table 1 decomposes -over the liquidity-risk channel, the fiscal-limit shift, and the debt change — -never over price stickiness. The `kappa_p -> inf` gate in this spec produces -exactly that counterfactual as a by-product, so it is reportable output, not -merely a regression test. - -**Their nominal side does little propagation work, and that is a live risk here.** -Inflation moves +/-0.1% while investment moves 9% and output 0.6% (their Figure -3); Tables 2 and 3 show inflation entries of 0.00-0.02 against investment at 0.53. -Their Section 4.1 mechanism narrative treats inflation as an *outcome* of the -relative-price move, never as a channel. What drives their output contraction is -the **loan-in-advance constraint** (`eta^I = 0.65/0.75` of investment must be -debt-financed, their eq. 2.10) — a real financial friction this model does not -have. Against their `-0.6%` output impact, this model's `Y_D[0] = -0.0149%` is two -orders of magnitude smaller, and a Phillips curve is unlikely to close that gap. -A Sims-Wu working-capital constraint is the natural candidate if the sticky build -leaves `Y_D[0]` implausibly small; it is **out of scope here** and would need its -own design pass. +over the liquidity-risk channel, the fiscal-limit shift and the debt change — never +over price stickiness. The staged rollout here produces both that counterfactual +and a clean split between the price-stickiness and Fisher contributions, so those +are reportable output rather than merely regression tests. + +**Their nominal side does little propagation work.** Inflation moves +/-0.1% while +investment moves 9% and output 0.6% (their Figure 3); Tables 2 and 3 show inflation +at 0.00-0.02 against investment at 0.53. Their §4.1 treats inflation as an *outcome* +of the relative-price move, never as a channel. What drives their output contraction +is the **loan-in-advance constraint** (`eta^I = 0.65/0.75` of investment must be +debt-financed, their 2.10) — a real financial friction this model does not have. +Against their `-0.6%` output impact, this model's `Y_D[0] = -0.0149%` is two orders +of magnitude smaller. If steps 2 and 3 leave `Y_D[0]` implausibly small, a Sims-Wu +working-capital constraint is the natural next lever; it is **out of scope here** +and would need its own design pass. ## Relationship to the `add-nkwpc` branch `add-nkwpc` (commit `2377f79`, off `08e1010`, pre-reorganisation) is a single 26-line commit adding `wage_setting_{D,F}` only. It was never wired into the model list and has no `kappa_w` calibration. **Nothing from it is used** — this spec is -price-side only, and the branch has no price-side content. Recorded here so the -branch is not revisited without knowing what is in it: +price-side only and the branch has no price-side content. Recorded so it is not +revisited without knowing what is in it: - It is a **real-wage** Rotemberg curve (`pi_w = w/w(-1) - 1` on the *real* wage, explicitly "no CB needed") — a real adjustment friction, not a nominal rigidity. -- It divides the MRS by `UCE_D`, which is correct under separable preferences but - **wrong under the GHH preferences this model uses** — cf. `labor_ss_D` and +- It divides the MRS by `UCE_D`, correct under separable preferences but **wrong + under the GHH preferences this model uses** — cf. `labor_ss_D` and `labor_market_D`, neither of which contains `UCE`. - It uses `w_D` where the existing labour condition uses `w_D / P_CES_D`, dropping the CES bundle deflator. - **Its stated motivation is wrong for this model.** The comment says sticky wages stop "the household wealth effect" translating into `N`. GHH preferences have no - wealth effect on labour supply by construction — that is the point of GHH, and - both `labor_market_D` and `labor_ss_D` show marginal utility cancelling out of - the intratemporal condition. + wealth effect on labour supply by construction. From 387d5aebdd7ed802c438cfd8449759934845bbc2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 15:37:26 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 05/42] Implementation plan: nominal rigidities 16 tasks, 87 steps, across three phases: a behaviour-preserving refactor, price Phillips curves with real deposits, then nominal deposits, followed by recalibration and regeneration. Adds fast unit tests (code/test_nkpc_blocks.py) that evaluate SSJ @simple blocks directly via .steady_state(), so sign and identity errors surface in seconds rather than after a 10-minute pipeline run. One refinement to the spec, adopted for a strictly smaller diff: rdep_i keeps its name and becomes the derived EX-ANTE real rate, which is already exactly what intermediation_P1, divert_bond_foc and divert_portfolio_adj mean by it. Those three blocks and steady_state.py's eight rdep reads therefore need no changes at all; only deposit_return, bank_return and capital_fund do, plus one new block per country. Three hard gates: main.py output byte-identical after the refactor; IRFs matching the pre-change baseline at kappa_p = 1e4; and n_inter_D[0] strictly more negative once deposits go nominal, which catches a reversed Fisher channel. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- .../plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md | 1875 +++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 1875 insertions(+) create mode 100644 docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md diff --git a/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md b/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ae6a37f --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md @@ -0,0 +1,1875 @@ +# Nominal Rigidities Implementation Plan + +> **For agentic workers:** REQUIRED SUB-SKILL: Use superpowers:subagent-driven-development (recommended) or superpowers:executing-plans to implement this plan task-by-task. Steps use checkbox (`- [ ]`) syntax for tracking. + +**Goal:** Add Rotemberg price Phillips curves and nominal deposit contracts to the two-country monetary-union HANK model, keeping the steady state bit-identical, and make the sticky model the paper's new baseline. + +**Architecture:** Four new unknowns (`mc_D, pi_D, mc_F, pi_F`) and four new targets take the solver system from 23×23 to 27×27. Inflation is closed without any policy rate: the monetary-union terms-of-trade identity `p/p(−1) = (1+π_F)/(1+π_D)` pins the inflation differential off the existing `p` unknown, and a union-inflation normalisation pins the level. Markups are neutralised by subsidy so every new residual is exactly zero at the current steady state. Deposits then become nominal, which makes banks net nominal debtors and adds a Fisher debt-deflation channel. + +**Tech Stack:** Python 3.12, `sequence-jacobian` (SSJ), numpy, pytest 9.0.3. Always use `/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python` — the base Anaconda environment has a broken `liblapack` symlink that causes silent numerical failures. + +**Spec:** `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities-design.md` + +**Branch:** `add-nkpc` (already created, already carries the spec commits) + +--- + +## Background an engineer needs before starting + +**This model has no test suite.** The regression test is running the whole pipeline +(`/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/main.py`, ~8-12 min) and reading printed +residuals. This plan adds fast unit tests for the new algebra so you are not +waiting 10 minutes to discover a sign error. + +**How to unit-test an SSJ `@simple` block.** A `@simple`-decorated function becomes +a `SimpleBlock`. Call `blk.steady_state({...})` with a dict of every input; it +returns a dict containing inputs *and* outputs. Lags and leads (`x(-1)`, `x(+1)`) +evaluate to the same constant, so `steady_state` is really "evaluate this block at +constant values" — which is exactly what you want for algebraic identity tests, +including deliberately *off*-steady-state ones. + +```python +ss = my_block.steady_state({'x': 2.0, 'y': 0.5}) +assert ss['residual'] == 0.0 +``` + +**SSJ gotcha:** SSJ discovers a block's outputs by running a regex over the +function's *source code* looking for the last `return` line. So every `@simple` +function must have a literal `return a, b` statement, and blocks cannot be defined +inside `python -c` strings (`inspect.getsource` fails). Define them in real files. + +**Acceptance thresholds** (from `docs/verification_report.md`), unchanged by this work: + +| Residual | Threshold | +|---|---| +| `goods_mkt_D` | ≤ 1e−14 | +| `goods_mkt_F` | ≤ 1e−7 | +| `ca_res_D` | ≤ 1e−7 | +| `deposit_mkt_D/F` | ≤ 1e−13 | + +**Sign checks:** on the default shock, `n_inter_D[0]` and `Y_D[0]` must both be +negative. Positive means a timing bug. + +**Doc hooks are enforced.** `.claude/hooks/require-docs-before-commit.sh` and +`.githooks/pre-commit` block any commit that stages `code/**` or any `*.py` +unless `docs/STATE.md`, `docs/PROGRESS.md` and `docs/HANDOFF.md` are also staged. +Task 16 does the real doc write-up; for intermediate code commits, add a one-line +changelog entry to `docs/PROGRESS.md` and stage it with the code. Do **not** use +`--no-verify`. + +--- + +## One refinement to the spec, adopted here + +The spec's substitution table replaces `rdep_i` with `rdep_exante_i` in +`intermediation_P1`, `divert_bond_foc` and `divert_portfolio_adj`. This plan +achieves the same model with a strictly smaller diff by **keeping the name +`rdep_i` for the ex-ante real rate**, which is already exactly what those three +blocks mean by it. + +- `i_dep_i` — **new nominal unknown**, replaces `rdep_i` in the unknowns list. +- `rdep_i` — **now a derived block output**: the ex-ante real rate for t→t+1. +- `rdep_expost_i` — **new derived output**: the realised real rate at t on + deposits placed at t−1. + +Net effect: `intermediation_P1_{D,F}`, `divert_bond_foc_{D,F}`, +`divert_portfolio_adj`, `smart_steady_{D,F}` and `steady_auxilliary_{D,F}` are +**untouched**, and `steady_state.py`'s eight `ss['rdep_D']` / `ss['rdep_F']` reads +keep working unchanged. Only `deposit_return`, `bank_return` and `capital_fund` +change, plus one new block per country. + +--- + +## File structure + +| File | Change | Responsibility | +|---|---|---| +| `code/full_model.py` | Modify | Gains `build_block_list()` — the single definition of the model's block list. Updates `unknowns_tp` / `targets_tp` to 27×27. | +| `code/tpi.py` | Modify | Drops its duplicate block list; calls `build_block_list()` with TPI overrides. | +| `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py` | Modify | Same. | +| `code/equations_D.py` | Modify | Adds `price_nkpc_D`, `firm_profit_D`, `deposit_rates_D`. Modifies `labor_demand_D`, `income_D`, `deposit_return_D`, `bank_return_D`, `capital_fund_D`. | +| `code/equations_F.py` | Modify | Symmetric analogues. | +| `code/equations_global.py` | Modify | Adds `terms_of_trade`, `union_inflation`. | +| `code/calibration.py` | Modify | Adds `mu_p`, `kappa_p`, `omega_pi_D`, `pi`; retargets `mc`; renames `rdep` → `i_dep`. | +| `code/steady_state.py` | Modify | Adds new blocks to the SS block list. | +| `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` | **Create** | Fast unit tests for all new block algebra. | +| `code/dump_irfs.py` | **Create** | Saves baseline IRFs to `.npz` so the equivalence gate is numerical, not eyeballed. | + +--- + +## Phase 0 — Refactor (behaviour-preserving) + +### Task 1: Extract a single `build_block_list()` + +`full_model.py:69`, `tpi.py:145` and `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py:160` +each hardcode the `create_model` block list. Six blocks are about to be added to +all three. CLAUDE.md records that a drifting duplicate model is exactly what +invalidated the retired `audit_artifacts/` harness. Do this first, as a **pure +no-op**, so the next task validates one change rather than two. + +The TPI list differs from the baseline list in four blocks: `budget_residual_D`, +`budget_residual_F`, `external_account_D` and `domestic_bond_clearing` are swapped +for `_tpi` variants defined in `tpi.py`. The factory therefore takes an +`overrides` mapping. + +**Files:** +- Modify: `code/full_model.py:36-91` +- Modify: `code/tpi.py:145-164` +- Modify: `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py:160-183` + +- [ ] **Step 1: Capture the baseline output** + +```bash +cd /Users/Adam/Documents/uni/phd/research/QUANTITATIVE_MODEL +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/main.py 2>&1 | tee /tmp/nkpc_baseline_main.log +``` + +Expected: completes, prints `Done — all figures saved to:`. Takes ~8-12 min. +Confirm the log contains a `b_gov_D` stability block and both sign lines. + +- [ ] **Step 2: Add `build_block_list()` to `full_model.py`** + +Insert immediately after the import block (after line 33, before `def build_and_solve`): + +```python +def build_block_list(financial_solved_D, financial_solved_F, *, + hh_D=None, hh_F=None, overrides=None): + """The single definition of the model's block list. + + Every consumer (full_model, tpi, diagnostics/regimes) calls this. A second + copy of the list is how the retired audit_artifacts/ harness drifted into + silently testing a different model — see CLAUDE.md. + + financial_solved_D/F : the runtime-constructed GK solved blocks. + hh_D/hh_F : optionally REPLACE the household blocks with versions + carrying extra hetoutputs (experiments/e4_distribution + adds per-decile consumption). + overrides : {name: block} used by the TPI layer to swap in its + _tpi variants without keeping a second list. + """ + o = overrides or {} + hh_D = hh_extended_D if hh_D is None else hh_D + hh_F = hh_extended_F if hh_F is None else hh_F + + def pick(name, default): + return o.get(name, default) + + return [ + # Country D + deposit_return_D, tax_rule_D, hh_D, ghh_composite_D, + sdf_D, sdf_banker_D, government_default_D, financial_solved_D, + bond_return_D, bank_return_D, capital_fund_D, cap_adj_cost_inter_D, macro_pru_tax_D, + intermediation_P2_D, intermediation_P3_D, k_balance_sheet_D, + capital_adj_D, capital_producer_profit_D, + pick('budget_residual_D', budget_residual_D), + labor_D, labor_market_D, labor_demand_D, banker_div_res_D, + market_clearing_D, welfare_agg_D, + # Country F + deposit_return_F, tax_rule_F, hh_F, ghh_composite_F, + sdf_F, sdf_banker_F, government_default_F, financial_solved_F, + bond_return_F, bank_return_F, capital_fund_F, cap_adj_cost_inter_F, macro_pru_tax_F, + intermediation_P2_F, intermediation_P3_F, k_balance_sheet_F, + capital_adj_F, capital_producer_profit_F, + pick('budget_residual_F', budget_residual_F), + labor_F, labor_market_F, labor_demand_F, banker_div_res_F, + market_clearing_F, welfare_agg_F, + # Global + ces_price_D, import_demand_D, ces_price_F, import_demand_F, + trade_balance, + pick('external_account_D', external_account_D), + pick('domestic_bond_clearing', domestic_bond_clearing), + bond_yield, portfolio_level_anchors, divert_portfolio_adj, + divert_bond_foc_D, divert_bond_foc_F, global_goods_mkt, + ] +``` + +Move the two `hh_extended` imports from the bottom of the file (lines 176-178) up +into the main import block so `build_block_list` can see them, keeping the +`# noqa: F401` re-export comment for `tpi.py`. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Use the factory in `build_and_solve`** + +Replace the `ha_full = sj.create_model([...])` call (`full_model.py:69-91`) with: + +```python + ha_full = sj.create_model( + build_block_list(financial_solved_D, financial_solved_F), + name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — GHH Preferences, Flex Price & Wage, No CB", + ) +``` + +- [ ] **Step 4: Add a TPI overrides helper to `tpi.py`** + +Add near the top of `tpi.py`, after the `_tpi` block definitions: + +```python +def tpi_overrides(): + """The four blocks the TPI layer swaps into the shared block list.""" + return { + 'budget_residual_D': budget_residual_D_tpi, + 'budget_residual_F': budget_residual_F_tpi, + 'external_account_D': external_account_D_tpi, + 'domestic_bond_clearing': domestic_bond_clearing_tpi, + } +``` + +Then replace `tpi.py`'s `sj.create_model([...])` (lines 145-164) with: + +```python + from full_model import build_block_list + ha_full_tpi = sj.create_model( + build_block_list(financial_solved_D, financial_solved_F, + overrides=tpi_overrides()), + name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — TPI Extension", + ) +``` + +- [ ] **Step 5: Point `regime_model.py` at the factory** + +Replace its `return sj.create_model([...])` (lines 160-183) with: + +```python + from full_model import build_block_list + return sj.create_model( + build_block_list(financial_solved_D, financial_solved_F, + hh_D=hh_D, hh_F=hh_F, + overrides=t.tpi_overrides()), + name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — TPI Extension (regimes cache, main)", + ) +``` + +Delete the now-dead `hh_D = t.hh_extended_D if hh_D is None else hh_D` lines +immediately above it — `build_block_list` handles the `None` default itself. + +- [ ] **Step 6: Verify bit-identical** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/main.py 2>&1 | tee /tmp/nkpc_refactor_main.log +diff <(grep -v 'Output directory' /tmp/nkpc_baseline_main.log) \ + <(grep -v 'Output directory' /tmp/nkpc_refactor_main.log) +``` + +Expected: **no output from `diff`**. Any difference means the refactor changed the +model — stop and find it. Do not proceed with a non-empty diff. + +- [ ] **Step 7: Commit** + +Add to `docs/PROGRESS.md` under a new dated heading: +`- Extracted build_block_list() in full_model.py; tpi.py and regime_model.py now share it. Verified bit-identical main.py output.` + +```bash +git add code/full_model.py code/tpi.py diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "refactor: single build_block_list() shared by full_model, tpi, regimes + +No-op. Verified main.py output is byte-identical before and after." +``` + +--- + +## Phase 1 — Price rigidity (deposits still real) + +### Task 2: Markup rent — `firm_profit_{D,F}` + +With the markup in labour demand only, `w*N = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y` while the +capital return is untouched, so off steady state factor payments no longer exhaust +output and the residual has nowhere to go. That is a Walras leak of the W-1 / W-2 +class. This block routes it. + +The rent is distributed to households **in proportion to productivity `e`** +(Auclert–Rognlie–Straub), *not* lump-sum. Markups are countercyclical, so a +lump-sum rebate would hand households rising income exactly when output falls. +Distributing on `e` makes household labour-plus-profit income `(1-alpha)*Y*e` — +identical to the flexible model — so the wedge affects the firm's hiring decision +only, and because the share depends on the household's *type* rather than its +hours, the marginal wage stays `w` and `labor_market_{D,F}` is unchanged. + +**Files:** +- Create: `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` +- Modify: `code/equations_D.py` (append after `labor_demand_D`, line 295) +- Modify: `code/equations_F.py` (append after `labor_demand_F`, line 249) + +- [ ] **Step 1: Write the failing tests** + +Create `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: + +```python +"""Fast algebraic tests for the nominal-rigidity blocks. + +These evaluate SSJ @simple blocks directly via .steady_state(), which is just +"evaluate at constant values" -- lags and leads collapse to the same constant. +That makes it usable for deliberately OFF-steady-state identity checks too. +""" +import os +import sys + +import pytest + +HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)) +sys.path.insert(0, HERE) + + +# ── Markup rent ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +def test_firm_profit_is_zero_at_steady_state(): + from equations_D import firm_profit_D + mu_p = 1.20 + ss = firm_profit_D.steady_state({ + 'Y_D': 1.0, 'N_D': 0.8, 'alpha_D': 0.33, + 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'mc_D': 1.0 / mu_p, + }) + assert ss['profit_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) + + +def test_firm_profit_restores_factor_exhaustion_off_steady_state(): + """w*N + profit must equal (1-alpha)*Y for ANY mc, so that adding the + capital share alpha*Y exhausts output exactly.""" + from equations_D import firm_profit_D, labor_demand_D + mu_p, mc, Y, N, alpha = 1.20, 0.79, 1.03, 0.81, 0.33 + + # w from labour demand at this mc (w_res_D == 0 defines w) + w = mu_p * mc * (1 - alpha) * Y / N + + ss = firm_profit_D.steady_state({ + 'Y_D': Y, 'N_D': N, 'alpha_D': alpha, 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'mc_D': mc, + }) + assert w * N + ss['profit_D'] == pytest.approx((1 - alpha) * Y, rel=1e-14) + + # and the wage we assumed really is the one labor_demand_D implies + ld = labor_demand_D.steady_state({ + 'w_D': w, 'Y_D': Y, 'N_D': N, 'alpha_D': alpha, + 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'mc_D': mc, + }) + assert ld['w_res_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-14) + + +def test_firm_profit_F_matches_D(): + from equations_D import firm_profit_D + from equations_F import firm_profit_F + args = dict(Y=1.03, N=0.81, alpha=0.33, mu_p=1.20, mc=0.79) + d = firm_profit_D.steady_state({ + 'Y_D': args['Y'], 'N_D': args['N'], 'alpha_D': args['alpha'], + 'mu_p_D': args['mu_p'], 'mc_D': args['mc'], + }) + f = firm_profit_F.steady_state({ + 'Y_F': args['Y'], 'N_F': args['N'], 'alpha_F': args['alpha'], + 'mu_p_F': args['mu_p'], 'mc_F': args['mc'], + }) + assert d['profit_D'] == pytest.approx(f['profit_F'], rel=1e-15) +``` + +- [ ] **Step 2: Run the tests to verify they fail** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -v +``` + +Expected: FAIL — `ImportError: cannot import name 'firm_profit_D'`. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Implement `firm_profit_D`** + +Append to `code/equations_D.py` after `labor_demand_D` (line 295): + +```python +@simple +def firm_profit_D(Y_D, alpha_D, mu_p_D, mc_D): + # Markup rent. With sticky prices labour demand pays mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y + # while capital still earns alpha*Y (capital_adj_D is unchanged), so off SS + # factor payments do not exhaust output. profit_D is that residual; leaving + # it unrouted is a Walras leak of the W-1/W-2 class. + # + # Distributed to households in proportion to productivity e (Auclert-Rognlie- + # Straub), NOT lump-sum: markups are countercyclical, so a lump-sum rebate + # would raise household income exactly when output falls. On the e rule, + # w*N*e + profit*e = (1-alpha)*Y*e -- identical to the flex model -- so the + # wedge affects the firm's hiring decision only, and because the share + # depends on type rather than hours the marginal wage is still w_D and + # labor_market_D is unchanged. + # + # Zero at SS, where mu_p*mc = 1. + profit_D = (1.0 - mu_p_D * mc_D) * (1.0 - alpha_D) * Y_D + return profit_D +``` + +Append the symmetric block to `code/equations_F.py` after `labor_demand_F` (line 249): + +```python +@simple +def firm_profit_F(Y_F, alpha_F, mu_p_F, mc_F): + # See firm_profit_D. + profit_F = (1.0 - mu_p_F * mc_F) * (1.0 - alpha_F) * Y_F + return profit_F +``` + +`N` is deliberately *not* in the signature — it does not appear in the expression, +and an unused input would make SSJ record a spurious DAG edge. The tests above +pass `N_D` / `N_F` in their dicts anyway; SSJ's `steady_state()` ignores extra +keys (verified), so they need no change. + +- [ ] **Step 4: Run the tests to verify they pass** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -v +``` + +Expected: `test_firm_profit_is_zero_at_steady_state` and +`test_firm_profit_F_matches_D` PASS. The factor-exhaustion test still FAILS on +`labor_demand_D` not accepting `mu_p_D` / `mc_D` — that is Task 4. + +- [ ] **Step 5: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: firm_profit_D/F routes the markup rent proportional to e" +``` + +--- + +### Task 3: Price Phillips curves — `price_nkpc_{D,F}` + +Rotemberg form in producer-price inflation. The gap is written as a **ratio**, so +it is unit-free and linearises to exactly `mc_hat`; published Calvo slopes are +therefore directly usable for `kappa_p` with no steady-state rescaling. + +**Files:** +- Modify: `code/equations_D.py` (append after `firm_profit_D`) +- Modify: `code/equations_F.py` (append after `firm_profit_F`) +- Modify: `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` + +- [ ] **Step 1: Write the failing tests** + +Append to `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: + +```python +# ── Price Phillips curve ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +def test_price_nkpc_is_zero_at_steady_state(): + from equations_D import price_nkpc_D + mu_p = 1.20 + ss = price_nkpc_D.steady_state({ + 'pi_D': 0.0, 'mc_D': 1.0 / mu_p, 'mu_p_D': mu_p, + 'kappa_p_D': 0.0871, 'beta_D': 0.985, + }) + assert ss['nkpc_p_res_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) + + +def test_price_nkpc_flex_limit_forces_mc_to_one_over_mu_p(): + """As kappa_p -> inf the residual/kappa_p -> -(mu_p*mc - 1), so setting the + residual to zero drives mu_p*mc -> 1, which is the competitive condition.""" + from equations_D import price_nkpc_D + mu_p = 1.20 + base = {'pi_D': 0.0, 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'beta_D': 0.985} + off_mc = 0.79 # != 1/mu_p = 0.8333... + for kappa in (1e2, 1e4, 1e6): + ss = price_nkpc_D.steady_state({**base, 'mc_D': off_mc, 'kappa_p_D': kappa}) + implied_gap = -ss['nkpc_p_res_D'] / kappa + assert implied_gap == pytest.approx(mu_p * off_mc - 1.0, rel=1e-12) + + +def test_price_nkpc_gap_linearises_to_mc_hat(): + """d(mu_p*mc - 1)/d(mc/mc_ss) evaluated at mc_ss = 1/mu_p equals 1 for ANY + mu_p -- which is why mu_p is a free normalisation to first order.""" + from equations_D import price_nkpc_D + for mu_p in (1.05, 1.20, 1.50): + mc_ss = 1.0 / mu_p + h = 1e-7 + base = {'pi_D': 0.0, 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'kappa_p_D': 1.0, 'beta_D': 0.985} + up = price_nkpc_D.steady_state({**base, 'mc_D': mc_ss * (1 + h)}) + dn = price_nkpc_D.steady_state({**base, 'mc_D': mc_ss * (1 - h)}) + # residual = -kappa*(gap), kappa = 1 -> d(gap)/d(mc_hat) = -d(res)/d(mc_hat) + d_gap = -(up['nkpc_p_res_D'] - dn['nkpc_p_res_D']) / (2 * h) + assert d_gap == pytest.approx(1.0, rel=1e-6) + + +def test_price_nkpc_F_matches_D(): + from equations_D import price_nkpc_D + from equations_F import price_nkpc_F + args = dict(pi=0.001, mc=0.79, mu_p=1.20, kappa=0.0871, beta=0.985) + d = price_nkpc_D.steady_state({ + 'pi_D': args['pi'], 'mc_D': args['mc'], 'mu_p_D': args['mu_p'], + 'kappa_p_D': args['kappa'], 'beta_D': args['beta'], + }) + f = price_nkpc_F.steady_state({ + 'pi_F': args['pi'], 'mc_F': args['mc'], 'mu_p_F': args['mu_p'], + 'kappa_p_F': args['kappa'], 'beta_F': args['beta'], + }) + assert d['nkpc_p_res_D'] == pytest.approx(f['nkpc_p_res_F'], rel=1e-15) +``` + +- [ ] **Step 2: Run the tests to verify they fail** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -k price_nkpc -v +``` + +Expected: FAIL — `ImportError: cannot import name 'price_nkpc_D'`. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Implement the blocks** + +Append to `code/equations_D.py`: + +```python +@simple +def price_nkpc_D(pi_D, mc_D, mu_p_D, kappa_p_D, beta_D): + # Rotemberg NK Phillips curve in D producer-price inflation. + # + # The gap is a RATIO (mu_p*mc - 1), so it is unit-free and linearises to + # exactly mc_hat for any mu_p -- published Calvo slopes are directly usable + # for kappa_p with no SS rescaling, and mu_p is a free normalisation to + # first order under the subsidy neutralisation. + # + # Subsidy-neutralised: mc_ss = 1/mu_p, so the gap and pi are both exactly + # zero at the current SS and the SS is bit-identical to the flex model. + # kappa_p -> inf recovers flexible prices (mu_p*mc = 1). + # + # Discounted at constant beta rather than SDF_D: since pi_ss = 0 the SDF + # deviation multiplies a zero, so the two are identical to first order and + # the model is solved by linearised solve_jacobian. + nkpc_p_res_D = pi_D - beta_D * pi_D(+1) - kappa_p_D * (mu_p_D * mc_D - 1.0) + return nkpc_p_res_D +``` + +Append to `code/equations_F.py`: + +```python +@simple +def price_nkpc_F(pi_F, mc_F, mu_p_F, kappa_p_F, beta_F): + # See price_nkpc_D. + nkpc_p_res_F = pi_F - beta_F * pi_F(+1) - kappa_p_F * (mu_p_F * mc_F - 1.0) + return nkpc_p_res_F +``` + +- [ ] **Step 4: Run the tests to verify they pass** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -k price_nkpc -v +``` + +Expected: 4 passed. + +- [ ] **Step 5: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: price_nkpc_D/F Rotemberg Phillips curves in PPI inflation" +``` + +--- + +### Task 4: Markup wedge in labour demand + +**Files:** +- Modify: `code/equations_D.py:292-295` +- Modify: `code/equations_F.py:246-249` + +- [ ] **Step 1: Confirm the already-written test fails** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py::test_firm_profit_restores_factor_exhaustion_off_steady_state -v +``` + +Expected: FAIL — `labor_demand_D` does not accept `mu_p_D` / `mc_D`. + +- [ ] **Step 2: Add the flex-limit test** + +Append to `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: + +```python +def test_labor_demand_collapses_to_competitive_at_ss_markup(): + """At mc = 1/mu_p the condition must be exactly w = (1-alpha)Y/N, which is + what makes the steady state bit-identical to the flex model.""" + from equations_D import labor_demand_D + mu_p, Y, N, alpha = 1.20, 1.03, 0.81, 0.33 + w_competitive = (1 - alpha) * Y / N + ss = labor_demand_D.steady_state({ + 'w_D': w_competitive, 'Y_D': Y, 'N_D': N, 'alpha_D': alpha, + 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'mc_D': 1.0 / mu_p, + }) + assert ss['w_res_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) +``` + +- [ ] **Step 3: Modify `labor_demand_D`** + +Replace `code/equations_D.py:292-295` in full: + +```python +@simple +def labor_demand_D(w_D, Y_D, N_D, alpha_D, mu_p_D, mc_D): + # Firm FOC with a price markup: w = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y/N. + # The mu_p factor IS the production subsidy tau_s = 1 - 1/mu_p: at the SS + # markup mc = 1/mu_p this collapses to the competitive w = (1-alpha)Y/N + # identically, so the steady state is unchanged. Off SS the wedge shifts + # labour demand, which is what makes N -- and hence output -- respond to + # demand rather than being pinned by Z, K and P_CES alone. + # The rent (1 - mu_p*mc)(1-alpha)Y is routed by firm_profit_D. + w_res_D = w_D - mu_p_D * mc_D * (1 - alpha_D) * Y_D / N_D + return w_res_D +``` + +Replace `code/equations_F.py:246-249` in full: + +```python +@simple +def labor_demand_F(w_F, Y_F, N_F, alpha_F, mu_p_F, mc_F): + # See labor_demand_D. Pins the wage in ha_full (drop labor_mkt_res_F there). + w_res_F = w_F - mu_p_F * mc_F * (1 - alpha_F) * Y_F / N_F + return w_res_F +``` + +- [ ] **Step 4: Run the tests to verify they pass** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -v +``` + +Expected: all tests pass, including +`test_firm_profit_restores_factor_exhaustion_off_steady_state`. + +- [ ] **Step 5: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: markup wedge mu_p*mc in labor_demand_D/F" +``` + +--- + +### Task 5: Global closure — `terms_of_trade` and `union_inflation` + +In a monetary union the nominal exchange rate is fixed at 1, so the terms of trade +**is** the accumulated inflation differential. That identity pins the differential +off `p`, which is already an unknown. The union-inflation normalisation pins the +level — the `phi_pi -> inf` limit of a Taylor rule, stated as an abstraction +rather than a modelled rule. + +**Files:** +- Modify: `code/equations_global.py` (append after `bond_yield`, line 44) +- Modify: `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` + +- [ ] **Step 1: Write the failing tests** + +Append to `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: + +```python +# ── Global closure ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +def test_global_residuals_zero_at_steady_state(): + from equations_global import terms_of_trade, union_inflation + tot = terms_of_trade.steady_state({'p': 0.99, 'pi_D': 0.0, 'pi_F': 0.0}) + assert tot['tot_res'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) + uni = union_inflation.steady_state({'pi_D': 0.0, 'pi_F': 0.0, 'omega_pi_D': 0.071}) + assert uni['union_pi_res'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) + + +def test_closure_puts_93pct_of_tot_move_into_D_deflation(): + """Solving tot_res = 0 and union_pi_res = 0 together gives + pi_D = -(1 - omega)*dlog p and pi_F = omega*dlog p. At the capital-key + omega = 0.071 that is a 93/7 split -- the internal-devaluation pattern. + Verified here by residual evaluation, not by re-deriving the algebra.""" + import math + from equations_global import terms_of_trade, union_inflation + omega = 0.071 + dlog_p = 1e-4 # small so the log-linear form is accurate + pi_D = -(1 - omega) * dlog_p + pi_F = omega * dlog_p + + uni = union_inflation.steady_state({'pi_D': pi_D, 'pi_F': pi_F, + 'omega_pi_D': omega}) + assert uni['union_pi_res'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-18) + + # tot_res compares p/p(-1) against (1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D); steady_state() sets + # p(-1) = p, so feed the implied gross growth rate directly instead. + implied = (1 + pi_F) / (1 + pi_D) + assert math.log(implied) == pytest.approx(dlog_p, rel=1e-6) + + +def test_omega_one_half_splits_evenly(): + """Guards the calibration argument: at omega = 0.5 the adjustment splits + 50/50, which is counterfactual for GR/DE. See the spec.""" + omega = 0.5 + dlog_p = 1e-4 + assert -(1 - omega) * dlog_p == pytest.approx(-0.5 * dlog_p, rel=1e-15) + assert omega * dlog_p == pytest.approx(0.5 * dlog_p, rel=1e-15) +``` + +- [ ] **Step 2: Run the tests to verify they fail** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -k "global_residuals or closure or omega_one" -v +``` + +Expected: FAIL — `ImportError: cannot import name 'terms_of_trade'`. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Implement the blocks** + +Append to `code/equations_global.py`: + +```python +@simple +def terms_of_trade(p, pi_D, pi_F): + # p = P_F/P_D in euro producer prices. In a monetary union the nominal + # exchange rate is fixed at 1, so terms-of-trade movement IS the inflation + # differential. This pins pi_D - pi_F off an unknown that already exists. + # Zero at SS: p/p(-1) = 1 and pi_D = pi_F = 0. + tot_res = p / p(-1) - (1.0 + pi_F) / (1.0 + pi_D) + return tot_res + + +@simple +def union_inflation(pi_D, pi_F, omega_pi_D): + # The ECB stabilises union-wide producer-price inflation -- the phi_pi -> inf + # limit of a Taylor rule, stated as an abstraction and NOT a modelled rule. + # Financial contracts carry no policy rate, so no Fisher relation is needed + # to close the nominal side. + # + # With terms_of_trade this gives pi_D = -(1 - omega_pi_D)*dlog p. At the + # capital-key omega_pi_D = 0.071, 93% of any terms-of-trade adjustment is D + # producer-price deflation and 7% is F inflation -- the 2010-12 internal- + # devaluation pattern. Do NOT use model GDP weights: the model normalises + # Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1, so those would give ~0.5 and split it evenly. + pi_U = omega_pi_D * pi_D + (1.0 - omega_pi_D) * pi_F + union_pi_res = pi_U + return pi_U, union_pi_res +``` + +- [ ] **Step 4: Run the tests to verify they pass** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -v +``` + +Expected: all pass. + +- [ ] **Step 5: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/equations_global.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: terms_of_trade and union_inflation close the nominal side" +``` + +--- + +### Task 6: Route the rent into household income + +**Files:** +- Modify: `code/equations_D.py:64-69` +- Modify: `code/equations_F.py:60-66` + +- [ ] **Step 1: Modify `income_D`** + +Replace `code/equations_D.py:64-69` in full: + +```python +def income_D(e_grid_D, w_D, N_D, div_D, div_fund_D, profit_D, tau_D, lamb_D, P_CES_D, T_ls_D): + # div_fund_D: rebate from the passive capital fund (zero when omega_K_D=1). + # profit_D: markup rent, distributed in proportion to productivity e (see + # firm_profit_D). w_D*N_D*e + profit_D*e = (1-alpha)*Y_D*e exactly, so + # household income is identical to the flex model and the markup wedge acts + # only on the firm's hiring decision. Zero at SS. + y_pre_D = (w_D * N_D * e_grid_D + profit_D * e_grid_D + div_D + div_fund_D) / P_CES_D + z_D = lamb_D * (y_pre_D ** (1 - tau_D)) - T_ls_D + t_paid_D = y_pre_D - z_D + return z_D, t_paid_D +``` + +Replace `code/equations_F.py:60-66` in full: + +```python +def income_F(e_grid_F, w_F, N_F, div_F, div_fund_F, profit_F, tau_F, lamb_F, P_CES_F, T_ls_F): + # See income_D. profit_F is the markup rent, distributed on e; zero at SS. + y_pre_F = (w_F * N_F * e_grid_F + profit_F * e_grid_F + div_F + div_fund_F) / P_CES_F + z_F = lamb_F * (y_pre_F ** (1 - tau_F)) - T_ls_F + t_paid_F = y_pre_F - z_F + return z_F, t_paid_F +``` + +- [ ] **Step 2: Verify the hetinput picks up the new argument** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -c " +import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'code') +from equations_D import hh_extended_D +assert 'profit_D' in hh_extended_D.inputs, hh_extended_D.inputs +print('profit_D wired into hh_extended_D') +" +``` + +Expected: `profit_D wired into hh_extended_D`. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: markup rent enters household income proportional to e" +``` + +--- + +### Task 7: Calibration parameters + +`mc_D` and `mc_F` already exist in `calibration.py:284` at 1.0, but nothing reads +them — they are dead entries. They now become live and must be retargeted to +`1/mu_p`. + +**Files:** +- Modify: `code/calibration.py:281-284` + +- [ ] **Step 1: Replace the wage-markup / SS-real-variables block** + +Replace `code/calibration.py:281-284` in full: + +```python + # ── Wage Markups ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + # Unchanged: wages are flexible. mu_w = 1 is the SS-neutralising device + # in labor_ss_D/F; there is no wage Phillips curve. + 'mu_w_D': 1.0, 'mu_w_F': 1.0, + + # ── Price Rigidity (Rotemberg) ──────────────────────────────────────── + # mu_p: gross price markup, epsilon_p = 6. FREE TO FIRST ORDER under the + # subsidy neutralisation -- the gap (mu_p*mc - 1) linearises to mc_hat + # for any mu_p -- so this needs no defending unless live markups are + # ever adopted. + # mc: SS real marginal cost = 1/mu_p. The production subsidy + # tau_s = 1 - 1/mu_p makes labour demand collapse to the competitive + # w = (1-alpha)Y/N at this value, so the SS is bit-identical to flex. + # kappa_p: Calvo theta_p = 0.75 at beta = 0.985, slope + # (1-theta)(1-beta*theta)/theta = 0.0871. Euro-area IPN median price + # duration ~4 quarters (Alvarez et al. 2006; Dhyne et al. 2006). + # Agrees with Bi-Foerster-Traum's implied 0.0846 to within 3%. + # pi: SS producer-price inflation, exactly zero. + 'mu_p_D': 1.20, 'mu_p_F': 1.20, + 'mc_D': 1.0 / 1.20, 'mc_F': 1.0 / 1.20, + 'kappa_p_D': 0.0871, 'kappa_p_F': 0.0871, + 'pi_D': 0.0, 'pi_F': 0.0, + + # omega_pi_D: weight on D in the union producer-price aggregate that the + # ECB is assumed to stabilise. = 1 - kappa_cb_F, the renormalised + # two-country capital key (BuBa 26.1 / BoG 2.0 of the euro-area key). + # DO NOT use model GDP weights: the model normalises Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1, + # so they would give ~0.5 and split the terms-of-trade adjustment evenly + # between Greek deflation and German inflation -- counterfactual for + # 2010-12. Load-bearing twice over once deposits are nominal, since it + # scales pi_D and hence the Fisher revaluation on bank balance sheets. + 'omega_pi_D': 0.071, +``` + +- [ ] **Step 2: Verify the calibration loads and the SS markup is consistent** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -c " +import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'code') +from calibration import get_calibration +c = get_calibration() +for k in ('mu_p_D','mu_p_F','mc_D','mc_F','kappa_p_D','kappa_p_F','pi_D','pi_F','omega_pi_D'): + print(f' {k} = {c[k]}') +assert abs(c['mu_p_D']*c['mc_D'] - 1.0) < 1e-15, 'subsidy neutralisation broken' +assert abs(c['mu_p_F']*c['mc_F'] - 1.0) < 1e-15, 'subsidy neutralisation broken' +print('mu_p*mc == 1 in both countries') +" +``` + +Expected: all nine printed, then `mu_p*mc == 1 in both countries`. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/calibration.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: mu_p, kappa_p, omega_pi_D calibration; mc retargeted to 1/mu_p" +``` + +--- + +### Task 8: Seed the new blocks into the steady state + +The SS solve must carry `mc`, `pi`, `profit` and the two global residuals so +`ss_final` hands them to `solve_jacobian`. All are exactly zero (or exactly +`1/mu_p`) at the current SS, so **the solved steady state must not move**. + +**Files:** +- Modify: `code/steady_state.py:1-40` (imports), `code/steady_state.py:151-162` (block list) + +- [ ] **Step 1: Add the new blocks to the SS imports** + +In `code/steady_state.py`, add to the `from equations_D import ...` list: +`firm_profit_D, price_nkpc_D`. Add to the `from equations_F import ...` list: +`firm_profit_F, price_nkpc_F`. Add to the `from equations_global import ...` list: +`terms_of_trade, union_inflation`. + +- [ ] **Step 2: Add them to the SS `create_model` list** + +In `solve_steady_state` (`code/steady_state.py:151`), extend the list. `labor_ss_D` +already sits on the line with `banker_div_D` and `government_ss_D`; add the new +blocks alongside: + +```python + hh_extended_D, smart_steady_D, market_clearing_D, steady_auxilliary_D, + banker_div_D, government_ss_D, labor_ss_D, firm_profit_D, price_nkpc_D, + hh_extended_F, smart_steady_F, market_clearing_F, steady_auxilliary_F, + banker_div_F, government_ss_F, labor_ss_F, firm_profit_F, price_nkpc_F, + ces_price_D, import_demand_D, ces_price_F, import_demand_F, + deposit_return_D, deposit_return_F, + bond_yield, + trade_balance, external_account_D, global_goods_mkt, + terms_of_trade, union_inflation, +``` + +`labor_demand_D/F` is deliberately **not** in the SS list (the SS uses +`labor_ss_D/F`), so the markup change there cannot touch the SS solve. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Verify the SS is unchanged and the new residuals are zero** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -c " +import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'code') +from calibration import get_calibration +from steady_state import solve_steady_state +r = solve_steady_state(get_calibration()) +ss = r['ss_final'] if 'ss_final' in r else r['ss'] +for k in ('profit_D','profit_F','nkpc_p_res_D','nkpc_p_res_F','tot_res','union_pi_res'): + v = float(ss[k]); print(f' {k} = {v:.3e}'); assert abs(v) < 1e-12, k +print('all new SS residuals are zero') +print(f\" K_D = {float(ss['K_D']):.10f}\") +print(f\" rk_D = {float(ss['rk_D']):.10f}\") +print(f\" w_D = {float(ss['w_D']):.10f}\") +" 2>&1 | tail -20 +``` + +Expected: every new residual `< 1e-12`, then `all new SS residuals are zero`. +Record the printed `K_D`, `rk_D`, `w_D` — compare against +`/tmp/nkpc_baseline_main.log` if it reports them, or against `docs/STATE.md`'s +calibration table. **They must not have moved.** + +- [ ] **Step 4: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/steady_state.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: seed mc, pi, profit and the global residuals into the SS solve" +``` + +--- + +### Task 9: Wire the 27×27 system and pass the equivalence gate + +This is the gate. At `kappa_p = 1e4` prices are effectively flexible, so the +27×27 system must reproduce the pre-change baseline. If it does not, the wiring +is wrong and nothing downstream is worth debugging. + +**Files:** +- Create: `code/dump_irfs.py` +- Modify: `code/full_model.py` (imports, `build_block_list`, `unknowns_tp`, `targets_tp`) + +- [ ] **Step 1: Create the IRF dump script** + +Create `code/dump_irfs.py`: + +```python +"""Run the pipeline through build_and_solve and save IRFs for comparison. + +Usage: + /opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/dump_irfs.py OUT.npz +""" +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np + +sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent)) + +from calibration import get_calibration +from steady_state import solve_steady_state +from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta +from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation +from full_model import build_and_solve + +KEYS = ('Y_D', 'C_D', 'I_D', 'n_inter_D', 'K_D', 'b_gov_D', 'w_D', 'N_D', + 'p', 'q_b_D', 'spread_rb', 'Y_F', 'C_F', 'I_F', 'n_inter_F') + + +def main(out_path): + r = calibrate_depreciation(calibrate_ic_delta( + solve_steady_state(get_calibration()))) + m = build_and_solve(r) + payload = {} + for tag in ('irfs_def_D', 'irfs_Z_D'): + for k in KEYS: + if k in m[tag]: + payload[f'{tag}__{k}'] = np.asarray(m[tag][k]) + for k in ('Y_D', 'C_D', 'n_inter_D', 'K_D'): + payload[f'ss__{k}'] = np.asarray(float(m['ss_final'][k])) + np.savez(out_path, **payload) + print(f'wrote {out_path} with {len(payload)} arrays') + + +if __name__ == '__main__': + main(sys.argv[1]) +``` + +- [ ] **Step 2: Dump the pre-change baseline from `main`** + +Tasks 2–8 are all committed by now, so there are no uncommitted tracked changes +and `git checkout main` is clean. `code/dump_irfs.py` is still **untracked**, so +it survives the checkout — and it only imports `build_and_solve`, which exists on +`main`. No stash is needed. + +```bash +git status --short # must show only "?? code/dump_irfs.py" +git checkout main +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/dump_irfs.py /tmp/nkpc_irfs_baseline.npz +git checkout add-nkpc +``` + +Expected: `wrote /tmp/nkpc_irfs_baseline.npz with ...`. If `git status` shows any +tracked modification, commit it before checking out — do not stash. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Add the new blocks to `build_block_list`** + +In `code/full_model.py`, extend the `from equations_D import (...)` list with +`price_nkpc_D, firm_profit_D`, the `from equations_F import (...)` list with +`price_nkpc_F, firm_profit_F`, and the `from equations_global import (...)` list +with `terms_of_trade, union_inflation`. + +Then in `build_block_list`, add `firm_profit_D, price_nkpc_D,` to the country-D +group (immediately after `labor_D, labor_market_D, labor_demand_D,`), add +`firm_profit_F, price_nkpc_F,` to the country-F group in the same position, and +append `terms_of_trade, union_inflation,` to the global group. + +- [ ] **Step 4: Update the solver system to 27×27** + +Replace `unknowns_tp` and `targets_tp` in `code/full_model.py:94-107`: + +```python + # ── 27×27 system ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + # +4 vs the flex model: mc and pi per country. mc is pinned by the price + # NKPC, pi jointly by the terms-of-trade identity and the union-inflation + # normalisation. No targets are renamed or removed -- labor_mkt_res_D/F is + # unchanged because wages stay flexible. + unknowns_tp = [ + 'K_D', 'n_inter_D', 'div_D', 'I_D', 'Q_D', 'b_gov_D', 'N_D', 'b_F_D', 'w_D', 'rdep_D', + 'mc_D', 'pi_D', + 'K_F', 'n_inter_F', 'div_F', 'I_F', 'Q_F', 'b_gov_F', 'N_F', 'b_D_F', 'w_F', 'rdep_F', + 'mc_F', 'pi_F', + 'p', 'q_b_D', 'q_b_F', + ] + targets_tp = [ + 'deposit_mkt_D', 'K_res_D', 'n_inter_val_D', 'div_res_D', + 'capital_res_D', 'q_res_D', 'b_gov_res_D', 'b_F_D_res', + 'labor_mkt_res_D', 'w_res_D', 'nkpc_p_res_D', + 'deposit_mkt_F', 'K_res_F', 'n_inter_val_F', 'div_res_F', + 'capital_res_F', 'q_res_F', 'b_gov_res_F', 'b_D_F_res', + 'labor_mkt_res_F', 'w_res_F', 'nkpc_p_res_F', + 'goods_mkt_D', 'rb_D_res', 'rb_F_res', 'tot_res', 'union_pi_res', + ] +``` + +Also update the model name on the `sj.create_model` call in `build_and_solve` to +`"Full 2-Country MU HANK — GHH Preferences, Sticky Price, Flex Wage, No CB"`. + +- [ ] **Step 5: Verify the system is square** + +`unknowns_tp` is local to `build_and_solve`, so count from the source text +directly rather than importing: + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python - <<'PY' +import ast, pathlib +tree = ast.parse(pathlib.Path('code/full_model.py').read_text()) +found = {} +for node in ast.walk(tree): + if isinstance(node, ast.Assign) and isinstance(node.value, ast.List): + for tgt in node.targets: + if isinstance(tgt, ast.Name) and tgt.id in ('unknowns_tp', 'targets_tp'): + found[tgt.id] = [e.value for e in node.value.elts] +u, t = found['unknowns_tp'], found['targets_tp'] +print('unknowns:', len(u), 'targets:', len(t)) +assert len(u) == len(t) == 27, (len(u), len(t)) +assert len(set(u)) == 27 and len(set(t)) == 27, 'duplicate entry' +for name in ('mc_D', 'pi_D', 'mc_F', 'pi_F'): + assert name in u, name +for name in ('nkpc_p_res_D', 'nkpc_p_res_F', 'tot_res', 'union_pi_res', + 'labor_mkt_res_D', 'labor_mkt_res_F'): + assert name in t, name +print('27x27 confirmed, no duplicates, all new names present') +PY +``` + +Expected: `unknowns: 27 targets: 27` then +`27x27 confirmed, no duplicates, all new names present`. + +- [ ] **Step 6: Run the equivalence gate at `kappa_p = 1e4`** + +```bash +KAPPA=1e4 /opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python - <<'PY' +import sys, os; sys.path.insert(0, 'code') +import calibration as cal +_orig = cal.get_calibration +def patched(): + c = _orig() + c['kappa_p_D'] = c['kappa_p_F'] = float(os.environ['KAPPA']) + return c +cal.get_calibration = patched +import dump_irfs +dump_irfs.main('/tmp/nkpc_irfs_flexlimit.npz') +PY +``` + +Expected: completes and writes the npz. If the solve fails to converge, step +`KAPPA` down (3e3, 1e3, 3e2) and record the largest value that converges — a very +stiff Phillips curve can be ill-conditioned. Note the value you used. + +- [ ] **Step 7: Compare against the baseline** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python - <<'PY' +import numpy as np +a = np.load('/tmp/nkpc_irfs_baseline.npz') +b = np.load('/tmp/nkpc_irfs_flexlimit.npz') +worst = 0.0 +for k in sorted(set(a.files) & set(b.files)): + d = float(np.max(np.abs(a[k] - b[k]))) + scale = max(float(np.max(np.abs(a[k]))), 1e-12) + rel = d / scale + worst = max(worst, rel) + flag = 'FAIL' if rel > 1e-3 else 'ok' + print(f'{flag:4s} {k:28s} max|abs diff| = {d:.3e} rel = {rel:.3e}') +print(f'\nworst relative deviation = {worst:.3e}') +PY +``` + +Expected: every line `ok`, worst relative deviation below 1e-3. This is a +*limit* comparison, not an exact one — a finite `kappa_p` cannot reproduce the flex +model to machine precision. If the worst deviation exceeds 1e-3, re-run step 6 +with a larger `KAPPA` and check whether the deviation shrinks proportionally. **If +it does not shrink with `kappa_p`, the wiring is wrong — stop and debug.** + +- [ ] **Step 8: Run the full pipeline once at the flex limit to check residuals** + +```bash +KAPPA=1e4 /opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python - <<'PY' 2>&1 | tee /tmp/nkpc_flexlimit_main.log +import sys, os; sys.path.insert(0, 'code') +import calibration as cal +_orig = cal.get_calibration +def patched(): + c = _orig() + c['kappa_p_D'] = c['kappa_p_F'] = float(os.environ['KAPPA']) + return c +cal.get_calibration = patched +import main +main.main() +PY +grep -E "goods_mkt|ca_res|deposit_mkt|n_inter_D\[0\]|Y_D\[0\]|b_gov_D\[499\]" /tmp/nkpc_flexlimit_main.log +``` + +Expected: `goods_mkt_D` ≤ 1e−14, `goods_mkt_F` and `ca_res_D` ≤ 1e−7, +`deposit_mkt_D/F` ≤ 1e−13, `n_inter_D[0]` and `Y_D[0]` both negative. + +- [ ] **Step 9: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/full_model.py code/dump_irfs.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: 27x27 sticky-price system; passes the kappa_p -> inf equivalence gate" +``` + +--- + +### Task 10: Dial `kappa_p` to 0.0871 and record the price-stickiness result + +This is the clean measure of what price stickiness alone does, with deposits still +real. It is a reportable result, not just a checkpoint — the benchmark literature +does not publish a flexible-price counterfactual. + +**Files:** none modified — `kappa_p` is already 0.0871 in `calibration.py`. + +- [ ] **Step 1: Run the full pipeline at the calibrated slope** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/main.py 2>&1 | tee /tmp/nkpc_sticky_main.log +``` + +Expected: completes. + +- [ ] **Step 2: Check every acceptance threshold and sign** + +```bash +grep -E "goods_mkt|ca_res|deposit_mkt|IC-δ|IC-delta" /tmp/nkpc_sticky_main.log +grep -E "n_inter_D\[0\]|Y_D\[0\]|b_gov_D\[499\]|rho_b" /tmp/nkpc_sticky_main.log +``` + +Expected: thresholds as in Task 9 step 8; `n_inter_D[0] < 0`; `Y_D[0] < 0`; +`b_gov_D[499]` near zero; the IC-δ consistency check unchanged. +If `assert_gk_well_posed` raises, the GK block is no longer well-posed — stop and +report, do not paper over it. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Record the headline impact numbers** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/dump_irfs.py /tmp/nkpc_irfs_sticky.npz +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python - <<'PY' +import numpy as np +b = np.load('/tmp/nkpc_irfs_baseline.npz') +s = np.load('/tmp/nkpc_irfs_sticky.npz') +print(f"{'variable':12s} {'flex (% SS)':>14s} {'sticky (% SS)':>15s}") +for k in ('Y_D', 'C_D', 'I_D', 'n_inter_D'): + ssv = float(b[f'ss__{k}']) if f'ss__{k}' in b.files else 1.0 + flex = b[f'irfs_def_D__{k}'][0] / ssv * 100 + sticky = s[f'irfs_def_D__{k}'][0] / ssv * 100 + print(f'{k:12s} {flex:+14.4f} {sticky:+15.4f}') +PY +``` + +Expected: a four-row table. **Record it verbatim** — it goes into `docs/STATE.md` +in Task 16 and is the price-stickiness-only result. `C_D[0]` is `+0.2164%` in the +flex baseline; report whatever it is now without editorialising. + +- [ ] **Step 4: Sweep `kappa_p` for the robustness table** + +```bash +for K in 0.03 0.0871 0.2; do + echo "=== kappa_p = $K ===" + KAPPA=$K /opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python - <<'PY' 2>&1 | grep -E "n_inter_D\[0\]|Y_D\[0\]|b_gov_D\[499\]" +import sys, os; sys.path.insert(0, 'code') +import calibration as cal +_orig = cal.get_calibration +def patched(): + c = _orig() + c['kappa_p_D'] = c['kappa_p_F'] = float(os.environ['KAPPA']) + return c +cal.get_calibration = patched +from steady_state import solve_steady_state +from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta +from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation +from full_model import build_and_solve +build_and_solve(calibrate_depreciation(calibrate_ic_delta( + solve_steady_state(cal.get_calibration())))) +PY +done +``` + +Expected: three blocks of output. Record which values keep `b_gov_D[499]` near +zero and both signs negative — that is the stable region for the robustness table. + +- [ ] **Step 5: Commit the recorded numbers** + +Add the two tables to `docs/PROGRESS.md` under the current date. + +```bash +git add docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "docs: record price-stickiness-only impact numbers and kappa_p sweep" +``` + +--- + +## Phase 2 — Nominal deposits + +### Task 11: `deposit_rates_{D,F}` and nominal `deposit_return_{D,F}` + +`rdep_i` becomes a **derived** ex-ante real rate and `i_dep_i` becomes the nominal +unknown. This is the refinement noted at the top of the plan: because +`intermediation_P1`, `divert_bond_foc` and `divert_portfolio_adj` already mean +"ex-ante real" by `rdep_i`, they need no changes at all. + +**Files:** +- Modify: `code/equations_D.py:75-84`, `code/equations_F.py:69-76` +- Modify: `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` + +- [ ] **Step 1: Write the failing tests** + +Append to `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: + +```python +# ── Nominal deposits ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +def test_deposit_rates_collapse_at_zero_inflation(): + """At pi = 0 both derived real rates must equal the nominal rate exactly -- + this is what keeps the steady state bit-identical.""" + from equations_D import deposit_rates_D + ss = deposit_rates_D.steady_state({'i_dep_D': 0.0125, 'pi_D': 0.0}) + assert ss['rdep_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0125, rel=1e-15) + assert ss['rdep_expost_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0125, rel=1e-15) + + +def test_deflation_raises_the_realised_real_deposit_rate(): + """Deflation is a windfall to depositors and a loss to banks, which hold + real assets against nominal liabilities. This is the Fisher channel; if the + sign flips, bank_return_D will amplify in the wrong direction.""" + from equations_D import deposit_rates_D + i = 0.0125 + base = deposit_rates_D.steady_state({'i_dep_D': i, 'pi_D': 0.0}) + defl = deposit_rates_D.steady_state({'i_dep_D': i, 'pi_D': -0.001}) + assert defl['rdep_expost_D'] > base['rdep_expost_D'] + assert defl['rdep_expost_D'] == pytest.approx((1 + i) / (1 - 0.001) - 1, rel=1e-14) + + +def test_deposit_return_is_unchanged_at_zero_inflation(): + """Rgross must be exactly 1 + i_dep when pi = 0 and P_CES is flat.""" + from equations_D import deposit_return_D + ss = deposit_return_D.steady_state({'i_dep_D': 0.0125, 'P_CES_D': 1.3, 'pi_D': 0.0}) + assert ss['Rgross_D'] == pytest.approx(1.0125, rel=1e-15) + + +def test_deposit_rates_F_matches_D(): + from equations_D import deposit_rates_D + from equations_F import deposit_rates_F + d = deposit_rates_D.steady_state({'i_dep_D': 0.0125, 'pi_D': -0.001}) + f = deposit_rates_F.steady_state({'i_dep_F': 0.0125, 'pi_F': -0.001}) + assert d['rdep_D'] == pytest.approx(f['rdep_F'], rel=1e-15) + assert d['rdep_expost_D'] == pytest.approx(f['rdep_expost_F'], rel=1e-15) +``` + +- [ ] **Step 2: Run the tests to verify they fail** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -k "deposit" -v +``` + +Expected: FAIL — `ImportError: cannot import name 'deposit_rates_D'`. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Implement the blocks** + +Replace `code/equations_D.py:75-84` in full: + +```python +@simple +def deposit_rates_D(i_dep_D, pi_D): + # Deposits are NOMINAL euro contracts. i_dep_D is the nominal rate and is the + # unknown that clears deposit_mkt_D -- there is no policy rate pinning it, so + # no absorber or cross-border claim is needed and external_account_D is + # untouched. + # + # rdep_D keeps its existing meaning: the EX-ANTE real rate for the t -> t+1 + # holding period, locked at t. That is exactly what intermediation_P1_D, + # divert_bond_foc_D and divert_portfolio_adj already mean by rdep_D, so those + # blocks need no changes. + # + # rdep_expost_D is the REALISED real rate at t on deposits placed at t-1. It + # contains the inflation surprise: a deflation raises the real value of the + # bank's nominal liabilities. Banks hold real assets against nominal + # liabilities, so they are net nominal debtors and this deepens the net-worth + # loss -- the Fisher-Bernanke channel. + # + # At SS pi_D = 0 and both equal i_dep_D, so the SS is bit-identical. + rdep_D = (1 + i_dep_D) / (1 + pi_D(+1)) - 1 + rdep_expost_D = (1 + i_dep_D(-1)) / (1 + pi_D) - 1 + return rdep_D, rdep_expost_D + + +@simple +def deposit_return_D(i_dep_D, P_CES_D, pi_D): + # Bundle-real gross deposit return on a NOMINAL contract. + # P_c_D = P_D * P_CES_D is the nominal CPI, so + # P_c_D(-1)/P_c_D = (P_CES_D(-1)/P_CES_D) / (1 + pi_D). + # + # T-2 is NOT reopened: the rate is still locked at t-1 (i_dep_D(-1)); only + # the deflator is period-t, which this block already did via P_CES. T-2 was + # about paying a period-t UNKNOWN rate on the t-1 deposit stock. + # + # At SS P_CES_D(-1)/P_CES_D = 1 and pi_D = 0, so Rgross_D = 1 + i_dep_D. + Rgross_D = (1 + i_dep_D(-1)) * P_CES_D(-1) / P_CES_D / (1 + pi_D) + return Rgross_D +``` + +Replace `code/equations_F.py:69-76` in full: + +```python +@simple +def deposit_rates_F(i_dep_F, pi_F): + # See deposit_rates_D. + rdep_F = (1 + i_dep_F) / (1 + pi_F(+1)) - 1 + rdep_expost_F = (1 + i_dep_F(-1)) / (1 + pi_F) - 1 + return rdep_F, rdep_expost_F + + +@simple +def deposit_return_F(i_dep_F, P_CES_F, pi_F): + # See deposit_return_D. Nominal contract; T-2 timing preserved. + Rgross_F = (1 + i_dep_F(-1)) * P_CES_F(-1) / P_CES_F / (1 + pi_F) + return Rgross_F +``` + +- [ ] **Step 4: Run the tests to verify they pass** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -v +``` + +Expected: all pass. + +- [ ] **Step 5: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: nominal deposit contracts; ex-ante and ex-post real rates" +``` + +--- + +### Task 12: Ex-post funding cost in `bank_return` and `capital_fund` + +These two blocks are where the bank pays for deposits it took on at t−1, so they +must use the *realised* real rate. Everything else that touches `rdep_i` is +forward-looking and stays as it is. + +**Files:** +- Modify: `code/equations_D.py:325-348` +- Modify: `code/equations_F.py:276-302` + +- [ ] **Step 1: Write the failing test** + +Append to `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: + +```python +def test_bank_return_uses_the_expost_rate(): + """Signature check: bank_return_D must take rdep_expost_D and must NOT take + rdep_D. Getting this backwards silently reverses the Fisher channel.""" + from equations_D import bank_return_D, capital_fund_D + for blk in (bank_return_D, capital_fund_D): + assert 'rdep_expost_D' in blk.inputs, (blk.name, blk.inputs) + assert 'rdep_D' not in blk.inputs, (blk.name, blk.inputs) + + +def test_forward_looking_blocks_still_use_rdep(): + """intermediation_P1_D and divert_bond_foc_D are ex-ante and must be + untouched -- rdep_D still means the t -> t+1 real rate.""" + from equations_D import intermediation_P1_D, divert_bond_foc_D + for blk in (intermediation_P1_D, divert_bond_foc_D): + assert 'rdep_D' in blk.inputs, (blk.name, blk.inputs) + assert 'rdep_expost_D' not in blk.inputs, (blk.name, blk.inputs) +``` + +- [ ] **Step 2: Run to verify it fails** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -k "expost_rate or forward_looking" -v +``` + +Expected: `test_bank_return_uses_the_expost_rate` FAILS; +`test_forward_looking_blocks_still_use_rdep` PASSES already. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Modify `bank_return_D`** + +In `code/equations_D.py:325-336`, change the signature `rdep_D` → `rdep_expost_D` +and replace every `rdep_D(-1)` with `rdep_expost_D`: + +```python +@simple +def bank_return_D(theta_D, rk_D, rdep_expost_D, b_D_D, b_F_D, n_inter_D, + rb_actual_D, rb_actual_F, q_b_D, q_b_F): + phi_bD_lag_D = q_b_D(-1) * b_D_D(-1) / n_inter_D(-1) + phi_bF_lag_D = q_b_F(-1) * b_F_D(-1) / n_inter_D(-1) + kappa_lag_D = theta_D(-1) - phi_bD_lag_D - phi_bF_lag_D + # T-2 fix: funding cost on the t-1 balance sheet is the rate locked at t-1. + # Under nominal deposits that realised real cost is rdep_expost_D, which + # already carries the (-1) timing internally and contains the inflation + # surprise -- the Fisher revaluation on the bank's nominal liabilities. + rn_D = (kappa_lag_D * (rk_D - rdep_expost_D) + + phi_bD_lag_D * (rb_actual_D - rdep_expost_D) + + phi_bF_lag_D * (rb_actual_F - rdep_expost_D) + + rdep_expost_D) + return rn_D +``` + +- [ ] **Step 4: Modify `capital_fund_D`** + +In `code/equations_D.py:339-348`: + +```python +@simple +def capital_fund_D(rk_D, rdep_expost_D, Q_D, K_D, omega_K_D, fund_rule_D, K_fund_D): + # Passive capital fund funded by deposits; rebates its spread on the lagged + # capital value to households. Same predetermined-rate timing as + # bank_return_D (T-2); rdep_expost_D is the realised real funding cost under + # nominal deposits. Zero when the fund is empty (omega_K_D=1, K_fund_D=0). + # fund_rule_D: 0 = fund holds (1-omega_K)·K, 1 = fund holds a constant K_fund. + K_fnd_lag_D = ((1.0 - fund_rule_D) * (1.0 - omega_K_D) * K_D(-1) + + fund_rule_D * K_fund_D) + div_fund_D = (rk_D - rdep_expost_D) * Q_D(-1) * K_fnd_lag_D + return div_fund_D +``` + +- [ ] **Step 5: Apply the identical changes to F** + +In `code/equations_F.py:276-292`, change `bank_return_F`'s signature `rdep_F` → +`rdep_expost_F` and replace all four `rdep_F(-1)` with `rdep_expost_F`. In +`code/equations_F.py:295-302`, change `capital_fund_F`'s signature `rdep_F` → +`rdep_expost_F` and replace `rdep_F(-1)` with `rdep_expost_F`. Do **not** touch +the W-2 `p(-1)/p` conversions in `bank_return_F`. + +- [ ] **Step 6: Run the tests** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -v +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -c " +import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'code') +from equations_F import bank_return_F, capital_fund_F +for b in (bank_return_F, capital_fund_F): + assert 'rdep_expost_F' in b.inputs and 'rdep_F' not in b.inputs, (b.name, b.inputs) +print('F blocks wired to rdep_expost_F') +" +``` + +Expected: all tests pass, then `F blocks wired to rdep_expost_F`. + +- [ ] **Step 7: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: bank_return and capital_fund pay the ex-post real deposit rate" +``` + +--- + +### Task 13: Wire nominal deposits and verify the Fisher sign + +**Files:** +- Modify: `code/calibration.py:70` +- Modify: `code/steady_state.py` (imports + SS block list) +- Modify: `code/full_model.py` (imports, `build_block_list`, `unknowns_tp`) + +- [ ] **Step 1: Rename the calibration parameter** + +Replace `code/calibration.py:70`: + +```python + # Nominal deposit rate. Deposits are nominal euro contracts; the derived + # real rates rdep_D/F (ex-ante) and rdep_expost_D/F (realised) come from + # deposit_rates_D/F. At SS pi = 0, so rdep = i_dep and the SS is + # unchanged from the real-deposit calibration. + 'i_dep_D': 0.000, 'i_dep_F': 0.000, +``` + +- [ ] **Step 2: Add `deposit_rates` to both block lists** + +In `code/steady_state.py`, add `deposit_rates_D` / `deposit_rates_F` to the +imports and place them in the SS `create_model` list immediately **before** +`deposit_return_D, deposit_return_F` (they produce `rdep_D` / `rdep_F`, which +`smart_steady_D/F` and `steady_auxilliary_D/F` consume): + +```python + deposit_rates_D, deposit_rates_F, + deposit_return_D, deposit_return_F, +``` + +In `code/full_model.py`, add `deposit_rates_D` / `deposit_rates_F` to the imports +and put each immediately before its `deposit_return_*` entry in +`build_block_list`. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Swap the unknown** + +In `code/full_model.py`'s `unknowns_tp`, replace `'rdep_D'` with `'i_dep_D'` and +`'rdep_F'` with `'i_dep_F'`. `targets_tp` is unchanged — still 27×27. + +- [ ] **Step 4: Verify the steady state has not moved** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -c " +import sys; sys.path.insert(0, 'code') +from calibration import get_calibration +from steady_state import solve_steady_state +r = solve_steady_state(get_calibration()) +ss = r['ss_final'] if 'ss_final' in r else r['ss'] +i, ra, rp = float(ss['i_dep_D']), float(ss['rdep_D']), float(ss['rdep_expost_D']) +print(f' i_dep_D={i:.12f} rdep_D={ra:.12f} rdep_expost_D={rp:.12f}') +assert abs(ra - i) < 1e-14 and abs(rp - i) < 1e-14, 'rates do not collapse at SS' +print(f\" K_D = {float(ss['K_D']):.10f}\") +print(f\" rk_D = {float(ss['rk_D']):.10f}\") +print(f\" w_D = {float(ss['w_D']):.10f}\") +print('SS rates collapse correctly') +" 2>&1 | tail -10 +``` + +Expected: all three rates equal, and `K_D` / `rk_D` / `w_D` identical to the +values recorded in Task 8 step 3. + +- [ ] **Step 5: Run the full pipeline** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/main.py 2>&1 | tee /tmp/nkpc_nominal_main.log +grep -E "goods_mkt|ca_res|deposit_mkt|n_inter_D\[0\]|Y_D\[0\]|b_gov_D\[499\]" /tmp/nkpc_nominal_main.log +``` + +Expected: all acceptance thresholds hold; both signs negative. + +- [ ] **Step 6: Verify the Fisher sign — the gate for this phase** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/dump_irfs.py /tmp/nkpc_irfs_nominal.npz +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python - <<'PY' +import numpy as np +s = np.load('/tmp/nkpc_irfs_sticky.npz') # Task 10: sticky prices, real deposits +n = np.load('/tmp/nkpc_irfs_nominal.npz') # this task: + nominal deposits +ss = float(s['ss__n_inter_D']) +a = s['irfs_def_D__n_inter_D'][0] / ss * 100 +b = n['irfs_def_D__n_inter_D'][0] / ss * 100 +print(f'n_inter_D[0] real deposits: {a:+.4f}% of SS') +print(f'n_inter_D[0] nominal : {b:+.4f}% of SS') +assert b < a, 'FISHER SIGN WRONG: nominal deposits must deepen the net-worth loss' +print('Fisher channel sign OK') +for k in ('Y_D', 'C_D', 'I_D'): + v = float(s[f'ss__{k}']) if f'ss__{k}' in s.files else 1.0 + print(f'{k:6s} real {s[f"irfs_def_D__{k}"][0]/v*100:+.4f}% ' + f'nominal {n[f"irfs_def_D__{k}"][0]/v*100:+.4f}%') +PY +``` + +Expected: `Fisher channel sign OK`. **If the assertion fires, the ex-post / +ex-ante substitution in Task 12 is backwards — do not proceed.** Record the +printed `Y_D` / `C_D` / `I_D` comparison; it is the Fisher-channel result. + +- [ ] **Step 7: Commit** + +```bash +git add code/calibration.py code/steady_state.py code/full_model.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "feat: nominal deposits wired; Fisher channel deepens the net-worth loss" +``` + +--- + +## Phase 3 — Recalibration, regeneration, documentation + +### Task 14: Re-tune `psi_lambda_B` to the 150bp target + +Spread transmission now runs through both a sticky terms of trade and a Fisher +revaluation, so the amplification dial has to be re-disciplined. The moment is +**peak annualised D−F spread ≈ 150bp on a 1pp default-probability shock**. + +CLAUDE.md puts the documented breakdown region around 4–5 at `n_inter = 3.0`. +Hitting the moment is not sufficient — stability must be re-verified at whatever +value it lands on. + +**Files:** Modify `code/calibration.py` (`psi_lambda_B_D` / `psi_lambda_B_F`) + +- [ ] **Step 1: Find the current value** + +```bash +grep -n "psi_lambda_B" code/calibration.py +``` + +Record it. + +- [ ] **Step 2: Measure the spread at three candidate values** + +```bash +for PSI in 1.5 3.0 5.0; do + echo "=== psi_lambda_B = $PSI ===" + PSI=$PSI /opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python - <<'PY' 2>&1 | tail -6 +import sys, os; sys.path.insert(0, 'code') +import numpy as np +import calibration as cal +_orig = cal.get_calibration +def patched(): + c = _orig() + c['psi_lambda_B_D'] = c['psi_lambda_B_F'] = float(os.environ['PSI']) + return c +cal.get_calibration = patched +from steady_state import solve_steady_state +from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta +from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation +from full_model import build_and_solve +m = build_and_solve(calibrate_depreciation(calibrate_ic_delta( + solve_steady_state(cal.get_calibration())))) +sp = m['irfs_def_D']['spread_rb'] +print(f"peak spread = {np.max(np.abs(sp)) * 400 * 100:.1f} bp annualised") +print(f"b_gov_D[499] = {m['irfs_def_D']['b_gov_D'][499]:.3e}") +PY +done +``` + +Expected: three `peak spread` readings. The `* 400 * 100` converts a quarterly +rate deviation to annualised basis points; cross-check the first reading against +the flex baseline's documented 150.3bp to confirm the scaling before trusting it. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Bisect to 150bp** + +Peak spread is monotone increasing in `psi_lambda_B`. Take the bracketing pair +from step 2 and bisect, re-running step 2's script with the midpoint, until the +peak spread is within 1bp of 150. Record every (psi, spread) pair evaluated. + +- [ ] **Step 4: Verify stability at the tuned value** + +Run the full pipeline at the tuned `psi_lambda_B`: + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/main.py 2>&1 | tee /tmp/nkpc_tuned_main.log +grep -E "goods_mkt|ca_res|deposit_mkt|n_inter_D\[0\]|Y_D\[0\]|b_gov_D\[499\]|rho_b" /tmp/nkpc_tuned_main.log +``` + +Expected: all thresholds hold, both signs negative, `b_gov_D[499]` near zero. +**If the tuned value sits in the 4–5 breakdown region, stop and report** — hitting +the moment inside a breakdown region is not a valid calibration. + +- [ ] **Step 5: Sweep `omega_pi_D` as the containing parameter** + +```bash +for W in 0.071 0.2 0.5; do + echo "=== omega_pi_D = $W ===" + OMEGA=$W /opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python - <<'PY' 2>&1 | grep -E "n_inter_D\[0\]|Y_D\[0\]|b_gov_D\[499\]" +import sys, os; sys.path.insert(0, 'code') +import calibration as cal +_orig = cal.get_calibration +def patched(): + c = _orig(); c['omega_pi_D'] = float(os.environ['OMEGA']); return c +cal.get_calibration = patched +from steady_state import solve_steady_state +from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta +from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation +from full_model import build_and_solve +build_and_solve(calibrate_depreciation(calibrate_ic_delta( + solve_steady_state(cal.get_calibration())))) +PY +done +``` + +Expected: three blocks. Record which values stay stable — `omega_pi_D` scales +`pi_D` and hence the Fisher revaluation, so this is the containing parameter if +the Fisher channel turns out to dominate. + +- [ ] **Step 6: Commit the tuned calibration** + +```bash +git add code/calibration.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "calib: re-tune psi_lambda_B to the 150bp spread moment under sticky prices" +``` + +--- + +### Task 15: Rebuild the regime cache and regenerate all results + +**Files:** none modified — this regenerates `docs/experiments_results.md` and figures. + +- [ ] **Step 1: Rebuild the cached Jacobian response matrices** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force 2>&1 | tail -20 +``` + +Expected: completes and writes new `cache_G_main_v*.npz` files. This takes a long +time (multiple Jacobian solves). The `experiments/` package reads these, so it +**must** run before `run_all.py` or the experiments will silently report the old +flex-price model. + +- [ ] **Step 2: Regenerate the standard results set** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python experiments/run_all.py 2>&1 | tail -40 +``` + +Expected: completes and rewrites `docs/experiments_results.md`. E2 self-verifies +and asserts its dY decomposition closes at 1e−7 — since `market_clearing_D` is +untouched by this work (no Rotemberg resource cost was added), that assertion is +an independent check on the whole change. **If E2's assertion fires, something has +leaked into the resource constraint — stop and find it.** + +- [ ] **Step 3: Run the experiments' own tests** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest experiments/ code/test_nkpc_blocks.py code/test_eba_calibration.py -v +``` + +Expected: all pass. + +- [ ] **Step 4: Regenerate figures** + +Already done by `code/main.py` in Task 14 step 4 (steps 6 and 8 write to +`outputs/`). Confirm the files are newer than the calibration change: + +```bash +ls -la outputs/ | head -20 +``` + +- [ ] **Step 5: Commit** + +```bash +git add docs/experiments_results.md outputs/ diagnostics/regimes/*.npz docs/PROGRESS.md +git commit -m "regen: rebuild regime cache and regenerate E1-E4 on the sticky model" +``` + +If the `.npz` cache files are gitignored, drop them from the `git add` — check +`diagnostics/regimes/.gitignore` first. + +--- + +### Task 16: Documentation + +The doc hooks require STATE.md, PROGRESS.md and HANDOFF.md on any commit that +stages Python. This task writes them properly rather than the one-liners used +during the phases. + +**Files:** Modify `docs/STATE.md`, `docs/PROGRESS.md`, `docs/HANDOFF.md`, +`docs/SPEC.md`, `CLAUDE.md` + +- [ ] **Step 1: `docs/STATE.md`** + +Add a new section dated 2026-08-05 containing: the new calibration rows (`mu_p`, +`kappa_p`, `mc`, `omega_pi_D`, `i_dep`, tuned `psi_lambda_B`); the three-way impact +table from Task 10 step 3 and Task 13 step 6 (flex / sticky-real-deposits / +sticky-nominal-deposits, for `Y_D[0]`, `C_D[0]`, `I_D[0]`, `n_inter_D[0]`); the +`kappa_p` and `omega_pi_D` sweeps; and the post-change Walras residuals. + +State explicitly whether `C_D[0]` changed sign. If it did not, say so plainly and +cross-reference the spec's *"The `C_D[0]` motivation, stated honestly"* section — +Bi-Foerster-Traum get consumption rising on impact too, with a Taylor rule, nominal +debt and a loan-in-advance constraint. + +- [ ] **Step 2: `docs/PROGRESS.md`** + +Consolidate the per-task one-liners into a single dated changelog entry covering +the refactor, the price NKPCs, the markup rent routing, nominal deposits, the +`psi_lambda_B` re-tune, and the regeneration. + +- [ ] **Step 3: `docs/HANDOFF.md`** + +Update the incidence paragraph at line 65. It currently says "every quintile's +consumption *rises* on impact ... must be confronted in the draft." Replace with +the post-change finding and note what was tried (sticky prices, then nominal +deposits) and what remains untried (a Sims-Wu loan-in-advance constraint; nominal +sovereign bonds). + +- [ ] **Step 4: `docs/SPEC.md`** + +Under *Key modelling choices*, add: the price Phillips curve and its +subsidy-neutralised steady state; the union-inflation normalisation as the nominal +anchor and why there is no Taylor rule; nominal deposits against real bonds as a +deliberate asymmetry that must be stated in the paper; and the markup rent's +distribution rule. + +- [ ] **Step 5: `CLAUDE.md`** + +Update the *Architecture* section to mention `build_block_list()` as the single +model definition. Add `mu_p`, `kappa_p`, `omega_pi_D` and `i_dep` to the key +modelling choices. Update the *Typical iteration* residual list to include the +four new targets. Add `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` to *Running and testing* as the +fast unit-test entry point: +`/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py -v`. + +- [ ] **Step 6: Final verification and commit** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -m pytest code/test_nkpc_blocks.py experiments/ -v +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/main.py 2>&1 | tail -30 +``` + +Expected: tests pass; pipeline completes with all thresholds held. + +```bash +git add docs/ CLAUDE.md +git commit -m "docs: sticky prices and nominal deposits become the baseline + +Records the three-way impact comparison (flex / sticky-real / sticky-nominal), +the re-tuned psi_lambda_B, the kappa_p and omega_pi_D sweeps, and states the +C_D[0] outcome plainly." +``` + +--- + +## Notes on what is deliberately NOT here + +- **Wage rigidity.** Author decision 2026-08-05. `labor_market_{D,F}` is untouched + and stays in every block list. +- **A Taylor rule.** Author decision 2026-08-05. A policy rule only bites if it + pins a real rate, which frees both deposit-market conditions and needs either a + cross-border banking claim (rewriting `external_account_D`) or an ECB reserve + asset inside the GK incentive constraint. +- **Nominal sovereign bonds.** Deliberate asymmetry; candidate follow-on spec. +- **Rotemberg resource costs.** Quadratic around `pi_ss = 0`, so first-order + irrelevant under `solve_jacobian`, and including them would inject a nonlinear + term into `goods_mkt_D` which holds at 1e−14. +- **A Sims-Wu loan-in-advance constraint.** The natural next lever if Tasks 10 and + 13 leave `Y_D[0]` implausibly small; needs its own design pass. From f3711bd5bc973a214a3682c3050773eb54d4ad44 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 19:01:20 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 06/42] Plan fix: doc gate needs all three docs, and long runs need background Read .claude/hooks/require-docs-before-commit.sh: it denies any commit staging code/** or *.py unless STATE.md, PROGRESS.md AND HANDOFF.md are all staged. Every intermediate commit in the plan staged only PROGRESS.md and would have been blocked. All 13 code-staging git add lines now list all three; the two docs-only commits are untouched since the gate does not fire on them. Also records that main.py (~8-12 min) and regime_model.py --force exceed the Bash tool's 10-minute cap and must run in the background, so a timeout is not mistaken for a model failure. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- .../plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md | 56 ++++++++++++------- 1 file changed, 37 insertions(+), 19 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md b/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md index ae6a37f..d09f914 100644 --- a/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md +++ b/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md @@ -50,12 +50,30 @@ inside `python -c` strings (`inspect.getsource` fails). Define them in real file **Sign checks:** on the default shock, `n_inter_D[0]` and `Y_D[0]` must both be negative. Positive means a timing bug. -**Doc hooks are enforced.** `.claude/hooks/require-docs-before-commit.sh` and -`.githooks/pre-commit` block any commit that stages `code/**` or any `*.py` -unless `docs/STATE.md`, `docs/PROGRESS.md` and `docs/HANDOFF.md` are also staged. -Task 16 does the real doc write-up; for intermediate code commits, add a one-line -changelog entry to `docs/PROGRESS.md` and stage it with the code. Do **not** use -`--no-verify`. +**Doc hooks are enforced — all three docs, every code commit.** +`.claude/hooks/require-docs-before-commit.sh` (verified) and its git-native twin +`.githooks/pre-commit` (active: `core.hooksPath` is set to `.githooks`) deny any +commit that stages `code/**` or any `*.py` unless **all three** of +`docs/STATE.md`, `docs/PROGRESS.md` and `docs/HANDOFF.md` are staged in the same +commit. Staging only `PROGRESS.md` is not enough. + +So before each code commit, add a line to each of the three: + +- `docs/PROGRESS.md` — a changelog bullet for this specific commit. +- `docs/STATE.md` — the current state after this commit (one line is fine for + intermediate steps; Task 16 writes the real tables). +- `docs/HANDOFF.md` — where the work now stands, so an interrupted session can + resume. + +The `git add` lines in this plan already list all three. Do **not** use +`--no-verify`; the gate is deliberate project policy. + +**Long-running commands must run in the background.** `code/main.py` takes about +8–12 minutes (several T=500 Jacobian solves at ~3 min each) and +`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force` takes longer. Both exceed the Bash +tool's 10-minute maximum timeout. Run them with `run_in_background: true` and poll +the output rather than blocking, or they will be killed mid-solve and you will +mistake a timeout for a model failure. --- @@ -258,7 +276,7 @@ Add to `docs/PROGRESS.md` under a new dated heading: `- Extracted build_block_list() in full_model.py; tpi.py and regime_model.py now share it. Verified bit-identical main.py output.` ```bash -git add code/full_model.py code/tpi.py diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/full_model.py code/tpi.py diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "refactor: single build_block_list() shared by full_model, tpi, regimes No-op. Verified main.py output is byte-identical before and after." @@ -418,7 +436,7 @@ Expected: `test_firm_profit_is_zero_at_steady_state` and - [ ] **Step 5: Commit** ```bash -git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: firm_profit_D/F routes the markup rent proportional to e" ``` @@ -549,7 +567,7 @@ Expected: 4 passed. - [ ] **Step 5: Commit** ```bash -git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: price_nkpc_D/F Rotemberg Phillips curves in PPI inflation" ``` @@ -627,7 +645,7 @@ Expected: all tests pass, including - [ ] **Step 5: Commit** ```bash -git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: markup wedge mu_p*mc in labor_demand_D/F" ``` @@ -742,7 +760,7 @@ Expected: all pass. - [ ] **Step 5: Commit** ```bash -git add code/equations_global.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/equations_global.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: terms_of_trade and union_inflation close the nominal side" ``` @@ -798,7 +816,7 @@ Expected: `profit_D wired into hh_extended_D`. - [ ] **Step 3: Commit** ```bash -git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: markup rent enters household income proportional to e" ``` @@ -872,7 +890,7 @@ Expected: all nine printed, then `mu_p*mc == 1 in both countries`. - [ ] **Step 3: Commit** ```bash -git add code/calibration.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/calibration.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: mu_p, kappa_p, omega_pi_D calibration; mc retargeted to 1/mu_p" ``` @@ -941,7 +959,7 @@ calibration table. **They must not have moved.** - [ ] **Step 4: Commit** ```bash -git add code/steady_state.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/steady_state.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: seed mc, pi, profit and the global residuals into the SS solve" ``` @@ -1164,7 +1182,7 @@ Expected: `goods_mkt_D` ≤ 1e−14, `goods_mkt_F` and `ca_res_D` ≤ 1e−7, - [ ] **Step 9: Commit** ```bash -git add code/full_model.py code/dump_irfs.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/full_model.py code/dump_irfs.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: 27x27 sticky-price system; passes the kappa_p -> inf equivalence gate" ``` @@ -1395,7 +1413,7 @@ Expected: all pass. - [ ] **Step 5: Commit** ```bash -git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: nominal deposit contracts; ex-ante and ex-post real rates" ``` @@ -1510,7 +1528,7 @@ Expected: all tests pass, then `F blocks wired to rdep_expost_F`. - [ ] **Step 7: Commit** ```bash -git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/equations_D.py code/equations_F.py code/test_nkpc_blocks.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: bank_return and capital_fund pay the ex-post real deposit rate" ``` @@ -1616,7 +1634,7 @@ printed `Y_D` / `C_D` / `I_D` comparison; it is the Fisher-channel result. - [ ] **Step 7: Commit** ```bash -git add code/calibration.py code/steady_state.py code/full_model.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/calibration.py code/steady_state.py code/full_model.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "feat: nominal deposits wired; Fisher channel deepens the net-worth loss" ``` @@ -1724,7 +1742,7 @@ the Fisher channel turns out to dominate. - [ ] **Step 6: Commit the tuned calibration** ```bash -git add code/calibration.py docs/PROGRESS.md +git add code/calibration.py docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md git commit -m "calib: re-tune psi_lambda_B to the 150bp spread moment under sticky prices" ``` From 9608041183a90931b0e58bace9008272b76ce528 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 19:08:49 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 07/42] Plan: replace stale thresholds with the measured baseline CLAUDE.md's goods_mkt_D <= 1e-14 refers to the DYNAMIC solve, where it is an explicit solver target and never printed on its own. What main.py prints under "SS goods residuals" are the steady-state values, which sit at ~4e-7 on unmodified code. A subagent checking the doc line against the printed line would report a false failure. Records the full measured baseline from the verified Task 1 run at f3711bd -- SS residuals, the block-table verdict, b_gov_D[499] stability, rho_b, both impact signs, and the TPI per-gamma maxima -- so every later task compares against reality. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- .../plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md | 34 ++++++++++++++----- 1 file changed, 26 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md b/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md index d09f914..d7f076e 100644 --- a/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md +++ b/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md @@ -38,14 +38,32 @@ function's *source code* looking for the last `return` line. So every `@simple` function must have a literal `return a, b` statement, and blocks cannot be defined inside `python -c` strings (`inspect.getsource` fails). Define them in real files. -**Acceptance thresholds** (from `docs/verification_report.md`), unchanged by this work: - -| Residual | Threshold | -|---|---| -| `goods_mkt_D` | ≤ 1e−14 | -| `goods_mkt_F` | ≤ 1e−7 | -| `ca_res_D` | ≤ 1e−7 | -| `deposit_mkt_D/F` | ≤ 1e−13 | +**Acceptance thresholds — use the MEASURED baseline below, not CLAUDE.md's list.** + +CLAUDE.md quotes `goods_mkt_D ≤ 1e−14`. That refers to the *dynamic* solve, where +`goods_mkt_D` is an explicit entry in `targets_tp` and so is driven to Newton +tolerance — it is never printed on its own. What `main.py` *does* print under +`SS goods residuals:` are the **steady-state** residuals, which sit around 4e−7. +Do not mistake one for the other and report a false failure. + +These are the actual values from a verified run of the pre-change model on +`add-nkpc` at commit `f3711bd` (Task 1, 2026-08-05). Every later task compares +against these: + +| Printed line | Baseline value | Rule | +|---|---|---| +| `SS goods residuals: goods_mkt_D` | `-4.2493506589857954e-07` | must not degrade by an order of magnitude | +| `SS goods residuals: goods_mkt_F` | `-4.1914559989475464e-07` | same | +| `SS goods residuals: ca_res_D` | `6.852157730108388e-17` | same | +| Block residual table verdict | `All residuals < 1e-8 ✓` | must still print `✓` | +| `IC_D: θ − θ_tgt` | `1.776357e-15` | OK | +| `irfs_Z_D['b_gov_D'][499]` | `-0.001701` | stability | +| `irfs_def_D['b_gov_D'][499]` | `0.000014` | stability | +| `ρ_b (partial-eq.)` | `0.8451` | target < 0.95 | +| `n_inter_D[0]` on default shock | `-3.3804%` of SS | **must stay negative** | +| `Y_D[0]` on default shock | `-0.0149%` of SS | **must stay negative** | +| TPI `max|ca_res_D|` across γ | ≤ `7.55e-08` | ≤ 1e−7 | +| TPI `max|goods_mkt_F|` across γ | ≤ `2.44e-09` | ≤ 1e−7 | **Sign checks:** on the default shock, `n_inter_D[0]` and `Y_D[0]` must both be negative. Positive means a timing bug. From 2015edd674945fbf323d40b9d6c1c73e6c2d0a20 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 19:10:00 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 08/42] refactor: single build_block_list() shared by full_model, tpi, regimes No-op. Verified main.py output is byte-identical before and after. --- code/full_model.py | 86 +++++++++++++++++++---------- code/tpi.py | 36 ++++++------ diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py | 29 +++------- docs/HANDOFF.md | 5 ++ docs/PROGRESS.md | 13 +++++ docs/STATE.md | 11 ++++ 6 files changed, 109 insertions(+), 71 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/full_model.py b/code/full_model.py index bc16a4e..3c57961 100644 --- a/code/full_model.py +++ b/code/full_model.py @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ tax_rule_D, capital_producer_profit_D, budget_residual_D, ces_price_D, import_demand_D, deposit_return_D, bond_return_D, sdf_D, sdf_banker_ss_D, sdf_banker_D, ghh_composite_D, - welfare_agg_D, market_clearing_D, + welfare_agg_D, market_clearing_D, hh_extended_D, ) from equations_F import ( capital_adj_F, labor_F, labor_market_F, labor_demand_F, @@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ tax_rule_F, capital_producer_profit_F, budget_residual_F, ces_price_F, import_demand_F, deposit_return_F, bond_return_F, sdf_F, sdf_banker_ss_F, sdf_banker_F, ghh_composite_F, - welfare_agg_F, market_clearing_F, + welfare_agg_F, market_clearing_F, hh_extended_F, ) from equations_global import ( trade_balance, domestic_bond_clearing, @@ -33,6 +33,57 @@ ) +def build_block_list(financial_solved_D, financial_solved_F, *, + hh_D=None, hh_F=None, overrides=None): + """The single definition of the model's block list. + + Every consumer (full_model, tpi, diagnostics/regimes) calls this. A second + copy of the list is how the retired audit_artifacts/ harness drifted into + silently testing a different model — see CLAUDE.md. + + financial_solved_D/F : the runtime-constructed GK solved blocks. + hh_D/hh_F : optionally REPLACE the household blocks with versions + carrying extra hetoutputs (experiments/e4_distribution + adds per-decile consumption). + overrides : {name: block} used by the TPI layer to swap in its + _tpi variants without keeping a second list. + """ + o = overrides or {} + hh_D = hh_extended_D if hh_D is None else hh_D + hh_F = hh_extended_F if hh_F is None else hh_F + + def pick(name, default): + return o.get(name, default) + + return [ + # Country D + deposit_return_D, tax_rule_D, hh_D, ghh_composite_D, + sdf_D, sdf_banker_D, government_default_D, financial_solved_D, + bond_return_D, bank_return_D, capital_fund_D, cap_adj_cost_inter_D, macro_pru_tax_D, + intermediation_P2_D, intermediation_P3_D, k_balance_sheet_D, + capital_adj_D, capital_producer_profit_D, + pick('budget_residual_D', budget_residual_D), + labor_D, labor_market_D, labor_demand_D, banker_div_res_D, + market_clearing_D, welfare_agg_D, + # Country F + deposit_return_F, tax_rule_F, hh_F, ghh_composite_F, + sdf_F, sdf_banker_F, government_default_F, financial_solved_F, + bond_return_F, bank_return_F, capital_fund_F, cap_adj_cost_inter_F, macro_pru_tax_F, + intermediation_P2_F, intermediation_P3_F, k_balance_sheet_F, + capital_adj_F, capital_producer_profit_F, + pick('budget_residual_F', budget_residual_F), + labor_F, labor_market_F, labor_demand_F, banker_div_res_F, + market_clearing_F, welfare_agg_F, + # Global + ces_price_D, import_demand_D, ces_price_F, import_demand_F, + trade_balance, + pick('external_account_D', external_account_D), + pick('domestic_bond_clearing', domestic_bond_clearing), + bond_yield, portfolio_level_anchors, divert_portfolio_adj, + divert_bond_foc_D, divert_bond_foc_F, global_goods_mkt, + ] + + def build_and_solve(ss_results): sys.setrecursionlimit(5000) @@ -66,29 +117,10 @@ def build_and_solve(ss_results): ) # ── Full dynamic model ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── - ha_full = sj.create_model([ - # Country D - deposit_return_D, tax_rule_D, hh_extended_D, ghh_composite_D, - sdf_D, sdf_banker_D, government_default_D, financial_solved_D, - bond_return_D, bank_return_D, capital_fund_D, cap_adj_cost_inter_D, macro_pru_tax_D, - intermediation_P2_D, intermediation_P3_D, k_balance_sheet_D, - capital_adj_D, capital_producer_profit_D, budget_residual_D, - labor_D, labor_market_D, labor_demand_D, banker_div_res_D, - market_clearing_D, welfare_agg_D, - # Country F - deposit_return_F, tax_rule_F, hh_extended_F, ghh_composite_F, - sdf_F, sdf_banker_F, government_default_F, financial_solved_F, - bond_return_F, bank_return_F, capital_fund_F, cap_adj_cost_inter_F, macro_pru_tax_F, - intermediation_P2_F, intermediation_P3_F, k_balance_sheet_F, - capital_adj_F, capital_producer_profit_F, budget_residual_F, - labor_F, labor_market_F, labor_demand_F, banker_div_res_F, - market_clearing_F, welfare_agg_F, - # Global - ces_price_D, import_demand_D, ces_price_F, import_demand_F, - trade_balance, external_account_D, domestic_bond_clearing, - bond_yield, portfolio_level_anchors, divert_portfolio_adj, - divert_bond_foc_D, divert_bond_foc_F, global_goods_mkt, - ], name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — GHH Preferences, Flex Price & Wage, No CB") + ha_full = sj.create_model( + build_block_list(financial_solved_D, financial_solved_F), + name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — GHH Preferences, Flex Price & Wage, No CB", + ) # ── 23×23 system ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── unknowns_tp = [ @@ -172,7 +204,3 @@ def build_and_solve(ss_results): 'irfs_def_D': irfs_def_D, } - -# Needed by full_model.py and tpi.py: import the hh_extended blocks -from equations_D import hh_extended_D # noqa: F401 (re-export for tpi.py) -from equations_F import hh_extended_F # noqa: F401 diff --git a/code/tpi.py b/code/tpi.py index fae2d25..1ab4019 100644 --- a/code/tpi.py +++ b/code/tpi.py @@ -101,6 +101,16 @@ def external_account_D_tpi(NX_D, q_b_D, q_b_F, b_F_D, b_D_F, rb_actual_F, rb_act return nfa_D, ca_res_D +def tpi_overrides(): + """The four blocks the TPI layer swaps into the shared block list.""" + return { + 'budget_residual_D': budget_residual_D_tpi, + 'budget_residual_F': budget_residual_F_tpi, + 'external_account_D': external_account_D_tpi, + 'domestic_bond_clearing': domestic_bond_clearing_tpi, + } + + def compute_tpi_irfs(G_tpi, shock_def, gamma_tpi, T): _has_spread = 'spread_rb' in G_tpi.outputs if _has_spread: @@ -142,26 +152,12 @@ def run_tpi(model_results): irfs_def_D = model_results['irfs_def_D'] # ── Build TPI model ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────── - ha_full_tpi = sj.create_model([ - deposit_return_D, tax_rule_D, hh_extended_D, ghh_composite_D, - sdf_D, sdf_banker_D, government_default_D, financial_solved_D, - bond_return_D, bank_return_D, capital_fund_D, cap_adj_cost_inter_D, macro_pru_tax_D, - intermediation_P2_D, intermediation_P3_D, k_balance_sheet_D, - capital_adj_D, capital_producer_profit_D, budget_residual_D_tpi, - labor_D, labor_market_D, labor_demand_D, banker_div_res_D, - market_clearing_D, welfare_agg_D, - deposit_return_F, tax_rule_F, hh_extended_F, ghh_composite_F, - sdf_F, sdf_banker_F, government_default_F, financial_solved_F, - bond_return_F, bank_return_F, capital_fund_F, cap_adj_cost_inter_F, macro_pru_tax_F, - intermediation_P2_F, intermediation_P3_F, k_balance_sheet_F, - capital_adj_F, capital_producer_profit_F, budget_residual_F_tpi, - labor_F, labor_market_F, labor_demand_F, banker_div_res_F, - market_clearing_F, welfare_agg_F, - ces_price_D, import_demand_D, ces_price_F, import_demand_F, - trade_balance, external_account_D_tpi, domestic_bond_clearing_tpi, - bond_yield, portfolio_level_anchors, divert_portfolio_adj, - divert_bond_foc_D, divert_bond_foc_F, global_goods_mkt, - ], name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — TPI Extension") + from full_model import build_block_list + ha_full_tpi = sj.create_model( + build_block_list(financial_solved_D, financial_solved_F, + overrides=tpi_overrides()), + name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — TPI Extension", + ) ss_tpi = copy.deepcopy(ss_final) ss_tpi.toplevel['cb_buy_D'] = 0.0 diff --git a/diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py b/diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py index 8b1b250..5ca7951 100644 --- a/diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py +++ b/diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py @@ -155,28 +155,13 @@ def build_tpi_model_main(tpi, financial_solved_D, financial_solved_F, single place the model is defined — a second copy is how the retired audit_artifacts/ harness drifted into testing a different model.""" t = tpi - hh_D = t.hh_extended_D if hh_D is None else hh_D - hh_F = t.hh_extended_F if hh_F is None else hh_F - return sj.create_model([ - t.deposit_return_D, t.tax_rule_D, hh_D, t.ghh_composite_D, - t.sdf_D, t.sdf_banker_D, t.government_default_D, financial_solved_D, - t.bond_return_D, t.bank_return_D, t.capital_fund_D, t.cap_adj_cost_inter_D, t.macro_pru_tax_D, - t.intermediation_P2_D, t.intermediation_P3_D, t.k_balance_sheet_D, - t.capital_adj_D, t.capital_producer_profit_D, t.budget_residual_D_tpi, - t.labor_D, t.labor_market_D, t.labor_demand_D, t.banker_div_res_D, - t.market_clearing_D, t.welfare_agg_D, - t.deposit_return_F, t.tax_rule_F, hh_F, t.ghh_composite_F, - t.sdf_F, t.sdf_banker_F, t.government_default_F, financial_solved_F, - t.bond_return_F, t.bank_return_F, t.capital_fund_F, t.cap_adj_cost_inter_F, t.macro_pru_tax_F, - t.intermediation_P2_F, t.intermediation_P3_F, t.k_balance_sheet_F, - t.capital_adj_F, t.capital_producer_profit_F, t.budget_residual_F_tpi, - t.labor_F, t.labor_market_F, t.labor_demand_F, t.banker_div_res_F, - t.market_clearing_F, t.welfare_agg_F, - t.ces_price_D, t.import_demand_D, t.ces_price_F, t.import_demand_F, - t.trade_balance, t.external_account_D_tpi, t.domestic_bond_clearing_tpi, - t.bond_yield, t.portfolio_level_anchors, t.divert_portfolio_adj, - t.divert_bond_foc_D, t.divert_bond_foc_F, t.global_goods_mkt, - ], name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — TPI Extension (regimes cache, main)") + from full_model import build_block_list + return sj.create_model( + build_block_list(financial_solved_D, financial_solved_F, + hh_D=hh_D, hh_F=hh_F, + overrides=t.tpi_overrides()), + name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — TPI Extension (regimes cache, main)", + ) def _ss_tpi(ss_final, kappa_cb_F): diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 78f6d35..5678501 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -2,6 +2,11 @@ ## Where to start +- **Nominal-rigidities plan in progress on `add-nkpc`** + (`docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`). **Task 1 (extract + a single `build_block_list()` shared by `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, and + `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py`) is complete and verified bit-identical + to the pre-refactor `main.py` output.** Task 2 (`firm_profit_D/F`) is next. - Working branch: `main`. Production entry point: `code/main.py` (orchestrates `calibration.py`, `steady_state.py`, `ic_delta_calibration.py`, `depreciation_calibration.py`, `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, `irf_plots.py`, diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index dbd7551..e736f57 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,19 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-05 — Consolidate the block list into `build_block_list()` (Task 1 of the nominal-rigidities plan) + +Extracted `build_block_list()` in `full_model.py`; `tpi.py` and +`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py` now share it instead of each hardcoding +their own copy of the `create_model` block list (`tpi.py` supplies its four +`_tpi` swaps via a new `tpi_overrides()` helper; `regime_model.py`'s +`build_tpi_model_main` now just calls the shared factory). Pure no-op, done +ahead of `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`'s six new +blocks so there is one place to edit instead of three. **Verified main.py +output byte-identical before and after** (8172 bytes, empty diff on both runs' +full stdout, including the `b_gov_D` stability block and both default-shock +sign checks). + ## 2026-08-05 — E4 distributional incidence; net-effects and MS-regime figures [this commit] Three additions to the first-draft set, at the author's request. diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index da68144..ce57794 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -2,6 +2,17 @@ **Branch:** `eba-recalibration` | **Date:** 2026-07-31 | **Status:** **EBA calibration rebuilt, identified, and LIVE** (`EBA_CALIBRATION=True`, `BANK_SCOPE="broad"`). Y-1 and RK-1 resolved; spread on target at 150.4bp; TPI loading declining. +## Model plumbing (2026-08-05): single block-list definition + +The model's block list now has **one definition**, `full_model.build_block_list()`. +`code/tpi.py` and `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py` previously each hardcoded +their own copy of the `sj.create_model([...])` list; both now call the shared +factory, with the TPI layer supplying its four `_tpi` swaps +(`budget_residual_D/F`, `external_account_D`, `domestic_bond_clearing`) via +`tpi.tpi_overrides()`. Verified bit-identical `main.py` output before/after +(no-op). Done ahead of Task 1 of `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`, +which adds six new blocks and would otherwise need editing in three places. + ## Policy experiments (`experiments/`) — **COMPLETE 2026-08-03** E1, E2 and E3 all land, with the orchestrator writing From 56c7c2be02ee88f27052bfde64852fffc1e9f8fc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 19:13:16 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 09/42] feat: firm_profit_D/F routes the markup rent proportional to e 2/3 tests green. test_firm_profit_restores_factor_exhaustion_off_steady_state is intentionally red until Task 4 adds mu_p/mc to labor_demand_D. --- code/equations_D.py | 19 ++++++++++++ code/equations_F.py | 7 +++++ code/test_nkpc_blocks.py | 62 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ docs/HANDOFF.md | 6 +++- docs/PROGRESS.md | 14 +++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 12 ++++++++ 6 files changed, 119 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 code/test_nkpc_blocks.py diff --git a/code/equations_D.py b/code/equations_D.py index d029be7..bd6052e 100644 --- a/code/equations_D.py +++ b/code/equations_D.py @@ -295,6 +295,25 @@ def labor_demand_D(w_D, Y_D, N_D, alpha_D): return w_res_D +@simple +def firm_profit_D(Y_D, alpha_D, mu_p_D, mc_D): + # Markup rent. With sticky prices labour demand pays mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y + # while capital still earns alpha*Y (capital_adj_D is unchanged), so off SS + # factor payments do not exhaust output. profit_D is that residual; leaving + # it unrouted is a Walras leak of the W-1/W-2 class. + # + # Distributed to households in proportion to productivity e (Auclert-Rognlie- + # Straub), NOT lump-sum: markups are countercyclical, so a lump-sum rebate + # would raise household income exactly when output falls. On the e rule, + # w*N*e + profit*e = (1-alpha)*Y*e -- identical to the flex model -- so the + # wedge affects the firm's hiring decision only, and because the share + # depends on type rather than hours the marginal wage is still w_D and + # labor_market_D is unchanged. + # + # Zero at SS, where mu_p*mc = 1. + profit_D = (1.0 - mu_p_D * mc_D) * (1.0 - alpha_D) * Y_D + return profit_D + @simple def intermediation_IC_D(nu_K_D, nu_bD_D, nu_bF_D, eta_D, diff --git a/code/equations_F.py b/code/equations_F.py index fea45e7..5fb9563 100644 --- a/code/equations_F.py +++ b/code/equations_F.py @@ -249,6 +249,13 @@ def labor_demand_F(w_F, Y_F, N_F, alpha_F): return w_res_F +@simple +def firm_profit_F(Y_F, alpha_F, mu_p_F, mc_F): + # See firm_profit_D. + profit_F = (1.0 - mu_p_F * mc_F) * (1.0 - alpha_F) * Y_F + return profit_F + + @simple diff --git a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fe63d04 --- /dev/null +++ b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py @@ -0,0 +1,62 @@ +"""Fast algebraic tests for the nominal-rigidity blocks. + +These evaluate SSJ @simple blocks directly via .steady_state(), which is just +"evaluate at constant values" -- lags and leads collapse to the same constant. +That makes it usable for deliberately OFF-steady-state identity checks too. +""" +import os +import sys + +import pytest + +HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)) +sys.path.insert(0, HERE) + + +# ── Markup rent ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +def test_firm_profit_is_zero_at_steady_state(): + from equations_D import firm_profit_D + mu_p = 1.20 + ss = firm_profit_D.steady_state({ + 'Y_D': 1.0, 'N_D': 0.8, 'alpha_D': 0.33, + 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'mc_D': 1.0 / mu_p, + }) + assert ss['profit_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) + + +def test_firm_profit_restores_factor_exhaustion_off_steady_state(): + """w*N + profit must equal (1-alpha)*Y for ANY mc, so that adding the + capital share alpha*Y exhausts output exactly.""" + from equations_D import firm_profit_D, labor_demand_D + mu_p, mc, Y, N, alpha = 1.20, 0.79, 1.03, 0.81, 0.33 + + # w from labour demand at this mc (w_res_D == 0 defines w) + w = mu_p * mc * (1 - alpha) * Y / N + + ss = firm_profit_D.steady_state({ + 'Y_D': Y, 'N_D': N, 'alpha_D': alpha, 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'mc_D': mc, + }) + assert w * N + ss['profit_D'] == pytest.approx((1 - alpha) * Y, rel=1e-14) + + # and the wage we assumed really is the one labor_demand_D implies + ld = labor_demand_D.steady_state({ + 'w_D': w, 'Y_D': Y, 'N_D': N, 'alpha_D': alpha, + 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'mc_D': mc, + }) + assert ld['w_res_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-14) + + +def test_firm_profit_F_matches_D(): + from equations_D import firm_profit_D + from equations_F import firm_profit_F + args = dict(Y=1.03, N=0.81, alpha=0.33, mu_p=1.20, mc=0.79) + d = firm_profit_D.steady_state({ + 'Y_D': args['Y'], 'N_D': args['N'], 'alpha_D': args['alpha'], + 'mu_p_D': args['mu_p'], 'mc_D': args['mc'], + }) + f = firm_profit_F.steady_state({ + 'Y_F': args['Y'], 'N_F': args['N'], 'alpha_F': args['alpha'], + 'mu_p_F': args['mu_p'], 'mc_F': args['mc'], + }) + assert d['profit_D'] == pytest.approx(f['profit_F'], rel=1e-15) diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 5678501..e43a2e8 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -6,7 +6,11 @@ (`docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`). **Task 1 (extract a single `build_block_list()` shared by `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, and `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py`) is complete and verified bit-identical - to the pre-refactor `main.py` output.** Task 2 (`firm_profit_D/F`) is next. + to the pre-refactor `main.py` output.** **Task 2 (`firm_profit_D/F`, the + markup-rent block distributed proportional to `e`) is complete** — + `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` 2/3 green, the factor-exhaustion test intentionally + red until Task 4 wires `mu_p/mc` into `labor_demand_D/F`. Task 3 + (`price_nkpc_D/F`) is next. - Working branch: `main`. Production entry point: `code/main.py` (orchestrates `calibration.py`, `steady_state.py`, `ic_delta_calibration.py`, `depreciation_calibration.py`, `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, `irf_plots.py`, diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index e736f57..7b7b98b 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,20 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-05 — `firm_profit_D/F` routes the markup rent (Task 2 of the nominal-rigidities plan) + +Once labour demand pays `mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y` (Task 4) instead of the flexible- +price `(1-alpha)*Y/N`, capital's unchanged `alpha*Y` no longer sums with the wage +bill to exhaust output whenever `mu_p*mc != 1` — a Walras leak of the W-1/W-2 +class if left unrouted. `firm_profit_D`/`firm_profit_F` compute that residual, +`profit = (1 - mu_p*mc)*(1-alpha)*Y`, zero at SS since `mu_p*mc = 1` there. It is +distributed to households in proportion to productivity `e`, not lump-sum, so +that `labor_market_D/F` needs no change (see block docstring). New +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 2/3 green now +(`test_firm_profit_is_zero_at_steady_state`, `test_firm_profit_F_matches_D`); +`test_firm_profit_restores_factor_exhaustion_off_steady_state` is intentionally +red until Task 4 wires `mu_p_D/F`, `mc_D/F` into `labor_demand_D/F`. + ## 2026-08-05 — Consolidate the block list into `build_block_list()` (Task 1 of the nominal-rigidities plan) Extracted `build_block_list()` in `full_model.py`; `tpi.py` and diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index ce57794..4323916 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -13,6 +13,18 @@ factory, with the TPI layer supplying its four `_tpi` swaps (no-op). Done ahead of Task 1 of `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`, which adds six new blocks and would otherwise need editing in three places. +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 2 — markup rent + +`firm_profit_D`/`firm_profit_F` (appended after `labor_demand_D/F` in +`equations_D.py`/`equations_F.py`) now exist: `profit = (1 - mu_p*mc)*(1-alpha)*Y`, +the residual left over once labour demand pays `mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y` (Task 4, +not yet done) while capital keeps earning `alpha*Y` unchanged. Distributed to +households in proportion to productivity `e`, not lump-sum — this is what lets +`labor_market_D/F` stay untouched. Zero at SS (`mu_p*mc=1`), so current SS is +bit-identical. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` added; 2/3 tests green, the +factor-exhaustion test is intentionally red pending Task 4's `labor_demand_D/F` +change. + ## Policy experiments (`experiments/`) — **COMPLETE 2026-08-03** E1, E2 and E3 all land, with the orchestrator writing From 7e20ea9a7b82e115cd4a8c71a59276019f7fd48f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 19:16:43 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 10/42] feat: price_nkpc_D/F Rotemberg Phillips curves in PPI inflation --- code/equations_D.py | 20 +++++++++++++++ code/equations_F.py | 6 +++++ code/test_nkpc_blocks.py | 55 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ docs/HANDOFF.md | 9 +++++-- docs/PROGRESS.md | 20 +++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 19 +++++++++++--- 6 files changed, 123 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/equations_D.py b/code/equations_D.py index bd6052e..28b2130 100644 --- a/code/equations_D.py +++ b/code/equations_D.py @@ -315,6 +315,26 @@ def firm_profit_D(Y_D, alpha_D, mu_p_D, mc_D): return profit_D +@simple +def price_nkpc_D(pi_D, mc_D, mu_p_D, kappa_p_D, beta_D): + # Rotemberg NK Phillips curve in D producer-price inflation. + # + # The gap is a RATIO (mu_p*mc - 1), so it is unit-free and linearises to + # exactly mc_hat for any mu_p -- published Calvo slopes are directly usable + # for kappa_p with no SS rescaling, and mu_p is a free normalisation to + # first order under the subsidy neutralisation. + # + # Subsidy-neutralised: mc_ss = 1/mu_p, so the gap and pi are both exactly + # zero at the current SS and the SS is bit-identical to the flex model. + # kappa_p -> inf recovers flexible prices (mu_p*mc = 1). + # + # Discounted at constant beta rather than SDF_D: since pi_ss = 0 the SDF + # deviation multiplies a zero, so the two are identical to first order and + # the model is solved by linearised solve_jacobian. + nkpc_p_res_D = pi_D - beta_D * pi_D(+1) - kappa_p_D * (mu_p_D * mc_D - 1.0) + return nkpc_p_res_D + + @simple def intermediation_IC_D(nu_K_D, nu_bD_D, nu_bF_D, eta_D, Q_D, K_D, q_b_D, q_b_F, b_D_D, b_F_D, n_inter_D, diff --git a/code/equations_F.py b/code/equations_F.py index 5fb9563..f40f53e 100644 --- a/code/equations_F.py +++ b/code/equations_F.py @@ -256,6 +256,12 @@ def firm_profit_F(Y_F, alpha_F, mu_p_F, mc_F): return profit_F +@simple +def price_nkpc_F(pi_F, mc_F, mu_p_F, kappa_p_F, beta_F): + # See price_nkpc_D. + nkpc_p_res_F = pi_F - beta_F * pi_F(+1) - kappa_p_F * (mu_p_F * mc_F - 1.0) + return nkpc_p_res_F + @simple diff --git a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py index fe63d04..334b9ab 100644 --- a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py +++ b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py @@ -60,3 +60,58 @@ def test_firm_profit_F_matches_D(): 'mu_p_F': args['mu_p'], 'mc_F': args['mc'], }) assert d['profit_D'] == pytest.approx(f['profit_F'], rel=1e-15) + + +# ── Price Phillips curve ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +def test_price_nkpc_is_zero_at_steady_state(): + from equations_D import price_nkpc_D + mu_p = 1.20 + ss = price_nkpc_D.steady_state({ + 'pi_D': 0.0, 'mc_D': 1.0 / mu_p, 'mu_p_D': mu_p, + 'kappa_p_D': 0.0871, 'beta_D': 0.985, + }) + assert ss['nkpc_p_res_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) + + +def test_price_nkpc_flex_limit_forces_mc_to_one_over_mu_p(): + """As kappa_p -> inf the residual/kappa_p -> -(mu_p*mc - 1), so setting the + residual to zero drives mu_p*mc -> 1, which is the competitive condition.""" + from equations_D import price_nkpc_D + mu_p = 1.20 + base = {'pi_D': 0.0, 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'beta_D': 0.985} + off_mc = 0.79 # != 1/mu_p = 0.8333... + for kappa in (1e2, 1e4, 1e6): + ss = price_nkpc_D.steady_state({**base, 'mc_D': off_mc, 'kappa_p_D': kappa}) + implied_gap = -ss['nkpc_p_res_D'] / kappa + assert implied_gap == pytest.approx(mu_p * off_mc - 1.0, rel=1e-12) + + +def test_price_nkpc_gap_linearises_to_mc_hat(): + """d(mu_p*mc - 1)/d(mc/mc_ss) evaluated at mc_ss = 1/mu_p equals 1 for ANY + mu_p -- which is why mu_p is a free normalisation to first order.""" + from equations_D import price_nkpc_D + for mu_p in (1.05, 1.20, 1.50): + mc_ss = 1.0 / mu_p + h = 1e-7 + base = {'pi_D': 0.0, 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'kappa_p_D': 1.0, 'beta_D': 0.985} + up = price_nkpc_D.steady_state({**base, 'mc_D': mc_ss * (1 + h)}) + dn = price_nkpc_D.steady_state({**base, 'mc_D': mc_ss * (1 - h)}) + # residual = -kappa*(gap), kappa = 1 -> d(gap)/d(mc_hat) = -d(res)/d(mc_hat) + d_gap = -(up['nkpc_p_res_D'] - dn['nkpc_p_res_D']) / (2 * h) + assert d_gap == pytest.approx(1.0, rel=1e-6) + + +def test_price_nkpc_F_matches_D(): + from equations_D import price_nkpc_D + from equations_F import price_nkpc_F + args = dict(pi=0.001, mc=0.79, mu_p=1.20, kappa=0.0871, beta=0.985) + d = price_nkpc_D.steady_state({ + 'pi_D': args['pi'], 'mc_D': args['mc'], 'mu_p_D': args['mu_p'], + 'kappa_p_D': args['kappa'], 'beta_D': args['beta'], + }) + f = price_nkpc_F.steady_state({ + 'pi_F': args['pi'], 'mc_F': args['mc'], 'mu_p_F': args['mu_p'], + 'kappa_p_F': args['kappa'], 'beta_F': args['beta'], + }) + assert d['nkpc_p_res_D'] == pytest.approx(f['nkpc_p_res_F'], rel=1e-15) diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index e43a2e8..2ae854a 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -9,8 +9,13 @@ to the pre-refactor `main.py` output.** **Task 2 (`firm_profit_D/F`, the markup-rent block distributed proportional to `e`) is complete** — `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` 2/3 green, the factor-exhaustion test intentionally - red until Task 4 wires `mu_p/mc` into `labor_demand_D/F`. Task 3 - (`price_nkpc_D/F`) is next. + red until Task 4 wires `mu_p/mc` into `labor_demand_D/F`. **Task 3 + (`price_nkpc_D/F`, the Rotemberg Phillips curves in PPI inflation, appended + after `firm_profit_D/F`) is complete** — `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` now 6/7 + green (the 4 new `price_nkpc` tests plus the 2 `firm_profit` tests from + Task 2), the same factor-exhaustion test still intentionally red. Task 4 + (wire `mu_p`/`mc` into `labor_demand_D/F` so the markup wedge actually bites) + is next. - Working branch: `main`. Production entry point: `code/main.py` (orchestrates `calibration.py`, `steady_state.py`, `ic_delta_calibration.py`, `depreciation_calibration.py`, `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, `irf_plots.py`, diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index 7b7b98b..94ed3ba 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,26 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-05 — `price_nkpc_D/F` Rotemberg Phillips curves (Task 3 of the nominal-rigidities plan) + +New blocks `price_nkpc_D`/`price_nkpc_F`: `pi = beta*pi(+1) + kappa_p*(mu_p*mc - 1)`, +appended after `firm_profit_D/F`. The gap is written as the ratio `mu_p*mc - 1` +rather than a level difference, so it is unit-free and linearises to exactly +`mc_hat` for any `mu_p` — published Calvo slopes are directly usable for +`kappa_p` with no SS rescaling, and `mu_p` is a free normalisation to first +order. Subsidy-neutralised: `mc_ss = 1/mu_p` makes the gap and `pi_ss` both +exactly zero at the current steady state, so the SS stays bit-identical to the +flex-price model. Discounted at constant `beta_D/F` rather than the SDF: since +`pi_ss = 0`, the SDF deviation multiplies a zero, so the two are identical to +first order under linearised `solve_jacobian`. `kappa_p -> inf` recovers +flexible prices (`mu_p*mc = 1`) — the equivalence gate used later in the plan. +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 4 new tests, all green +(`test_price_nkpc_is_zero_at_steady_state`, +`test_price_nkpc_flex_limit_forces_mc_to_one_over_mu_p`, +`test_price_nkpc_gap_linearises_to_mc_hat`, `test_price_nkpc_F_matches_D`); full +file now 6 passed / 1 known-red (`test_firm_profit_restores_factor_exhaustion_off_steady_state`, +untouched, goes green in Task 4). + ## 2026-08-05 — `firm_profit_D/F` routes the markup rent (Task 2 of the nominal-rigidities plan) Once labour demand pays `mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y` (Task 4) instead of the flexible- diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 4323916..41508b9 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ factory, with the TPI layer supplying its four `_tpi` swaps (no-op). Done ahead of Task 1 of `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`, which adds six new blocks and would otherwise need editing in three places. -## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 2 — markup rent +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 3 — price Phillips curve `firm_profit_D`/`firm_profit_F` (appended after `labor_demand_D/F` in `equations_D.py`/`equations_F.py`) now exist: `profit = (1 - mu_p*mc)*(1-alpha)*Y`, @@ -21,9 +21,20 @@ the residual left over once labour demand pays `mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y` (Task 4, not yet done) while capital keeps earning `alpha*Y` unchanged. Distributed to households in proportion to productivity `e`, not lump-sum — this is what lets `labor_market_D/F` stay untouched. Zero at SS (`mu_p*mc=1`), so current SS is -bit-identical. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` added; 2/3 tests green, the -factor-exhaustion test is intentionally red pending Task 4's `labor_demand_D/F` -change. +bit-identical. + +`price_nkpc_D`/`price_nkpc_F` (appended after `firm_profit_D/F`) add the +Rotemberg curves themselves: `pi = beta*pi(+1) + kappa_p*(mu_p*mc - 1)`. The +gap is the ratio `mu_p*mc - 1`, not a level difference — unit-free, and +linearises to exactly `mc_hat` for any `mu_p`, so published Calvo slopes map +straight onto `kappa_p` with no SS rescaling. Subsidy-neutralised +(`mc_ss = 1/mu_p`) so `pi_ss = 0` and the steady state is still bit-identical +to the flex-price model. Discounted at constant `beta_D/F`, not the SDF — +immaterial to first order since `pi_ss = 0`. `kappa_p -> inf` recovers +flexible prices (`mu_p*mc = 1`), the equivalence gate for later tasks. +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 6/7 tests green (all 2 `firm_profit` + all 4 +`price_nkpc` tests), the factor-exhaustion test still intentionally red +pending Task 4's `labor_demand_D/F` change. ## Policy experiments (`experiments/`) — **COMPLETE 2026-08-03** From a59ea52bbe1cfa4884a28914d68fd0f64bd3dfa7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 19:19:47 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 11/42] feat: markup wedge mu_p*mc in labor_demand_D/F Turns test_firm_profit_restores_factor_exhaustion_off_steady_state green. Full nkpc block test file now 8 passed, 0 failed. --- code/equations_D.py | 11 +++++++++-- code/equations_F.py | 6 +++--- code/test_nkpc_blocks.py | 13 +++++++++++++ docs/HANDOFF.md | 12 +++++++++--- docs/PROGRESS.md | 19 +++++++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 23 +++++++++++++++++------ 6 files changed, 70 insertions(+), 14 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/equations_D.py b/code/equations_D.py index 28b2130..217845d 100644 --- a/code/equations_D.py +++ b/code/equations_D.py @@ -290,8 +290,15 @@ def labor_market_D(w_D, N_D, vphi_D, frisch_D, P_CES_D): @simple -def labor_demand_D(w_D, Y_D, N_D, alpha_D): - w_res_D = w_D - (1 - alpha_D) * Y_D / N_D +def labor_demand_D(w_D, Y_D, N_D, alpha_D, mu_p_D, mc_D): + # Firm FOC with a price markup: w = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y/N. + # The mu_p factor IS the production subsidy tau_s = 1 - 1/mu_p: at the SS + # markup mc = 1/mu_p this collapses to the competitive w = (1-alpha)Y/N + # identically, so the steady state is unchanged. Off SS the wedge shifts + # labour demand, which is what makes N -- and hence output -- respond to + # demand rather than being pinned by Z, K and P_CES alone. + # The rent (1 - mu_p*mc)(1-alpha)Y is routed by firm_profit_D. + w_res_D = w_D - mu_p_D * mc_D * (1 - alpha_D) * Y_D / N_D return w_res_D diff --git a/code/equations_F.py b/code/equations_F.py index f40f53e..be8586a 100644 --- a/code/equations_F.py +++ b/code/equations_F.py @@ -243,9 +243,9 @@ def labor_market_F(w_F, N_F, vphi_F, frisch_F, P_CES_F): @simple -def labor_demand_F(w_F, Y_F, N_F, alpha_F): - # Firm FOC: w = (1−α)·Y/N. Pins the wage in ha_full (drop labor_mkt_res_F there). - w_res_F = w_F - (1 - alpha_F) * Y_F / N_F +def labor_demand_F(w_F, Y_F, N_F, alpha_F, mu_p_F, mc_F): + # See labor_demand_D. Pins the wage in ha_full (drop labor_mkt_res_F there). + w_res_F = w_F - mu_p_F * mc_F * (1 - alpha_F) * Y_F / N_F return w_res_F diff --git a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py index 334b9ab..57e1b94 100644 --- a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py +++ b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py @@ -115,3 +115,16 @@ def test_price_nkpc_F_matches_D(): 'kappa_p_F': args['kappa'], 'beta_F': args['beta'], }) assert d['nkpc_p_res_D'] == pytest.approx(f['nkpc_p_res_F'], rel=1e-15) + + +def test_labor_demand_collapses_to_competitive_at_ss_markup(): + """At mc = 1/mu_p the condition must be exactly w = (1-alpha)Y/N, which is + what makes the steady state bit-identical to the flex model.""" + from equations_D import labor_demand_D + mu_p, Y, N, alpha = 1.20, 1.03, 0.81, 0.33 + w_competitive = (1 - alpha) * Y / N + ss = labor_demand_D.steady_state({ + 'w_D': w_competitive, 'Y_D': Y, 'N_D': N, 'alpha_D': alpha, + 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'mc_D': 1.0 / mu_p, + }) + assert ss['w_res_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 2ae854a..401c52c 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -13,9 +13,15 @@ (`price_nkpc_D/F`, the Rotemberg Phillips curves in PPI inflation, appended after `firm_profit_D/F`) is complete** — `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` now 6/7 green (the 4 new `price_nkpc` tests plus the 2 `firm_profit` tests from - Task 2), the same factor-exhaustion test still intentionally red. Task 4 - (wire `mu_p`/`mc` into `labor_demand_D/F` so the markup wedge actually bites) - is next. + Task 2), the same factor-exhaustion test still intentionally red. **Task 4 + (wire `mu_p*mc` into `labor_demand_D/F` so the markup wedge actually bites) is + complete** — `labor_demand_D/F` now solve `w = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y/N`; this + turns the previously-red factor-exhaustion test green and, with the new + `test_labor_demand_collapses_to_competitive_at_ss_markup`, + `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` is 8/8. Employment is no longer purely + supply-determined; SS is unchanged since `mu_p*mc=1` at `mc_ss=1/mu_p`. + `labor_market_D/F` (labour supply) untouched, as designed. Task 5 + (`terms_of_trade` + `union_inflation` global blocks) is next. - Working branch: `main`. Production entry point: `code/main.py` (orchestrates `calibration.py`, `steady_state.py`, `ic_delta_calibration.py`, `depreciation_calibration.py`, `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, `irf_plots.py`, diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index 94ed3ba..49663e6 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,25 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-05 — Markup wedge `mu_p*mc` in `labor_demand_D/F` (Task 4 of the nominal-rigidities plan) + +`labor_demand_D/F` now solve `w = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y/N` instead of the +competitive `w = (1-alpha)*Y/N`, closing the loop with Task 2's `firm_profit_D/F` +and Task 3's `price_nkpc_D/F`. This is the payoff of the nominal-rigidities work: +employment was previously pinned by `Z`, `K`, and `P_CES` alone — combining the +flex labour-supply and old competitive labour-demand conditions eliminates `Y` +entirely and leaves nothing for aggregate demand to act on. With the wedge, a +fall in `mc` shifts labour demand in, so `N` and `Y` move together. SS is +unchanged bit-for-bit: at `mc_ss = 1/mu_p` the wedge is exactly 1 and the +condition collapses identically to the old competitive one (the production +subsidy `tau_s = 1 - 1/mu_p` argument from Task 3). `labor_market_D/F` (labour +supply) is deliberately untouched — the markup rent is routed by `firm_profit_D/F` +in proportion to productivity type `e`, not hours, so the marginal wage facing +the household is still `w`. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 1 new test +(`test_labor_demand_collapses_to_competitive_at_ss_markup`), turns the +previously-red `test_firm_profit_restores_factor_exhaustion_off_steady_state` +green; full file now 8 passed / 0 failed. + ## 2026-08-05 — `price_nkpc_D/F` Rotemberg Phillips curves (Task 3 of the nominal-rigidities plan) New blocks `price_nkpc_D`/`price_nkpc_F`: `pi = beta*pi(+1) + kappa_p*(mu_p*mc - 1)`, diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 41508b9..023652d 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -13,12 +13,12 @@ factory, with the TPI layer supplying its four `_tpi` swaps (no-op). Done ahead of Task 1 of `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`, which adds six new blocks and would otherwise need editing in three places. -## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 3 — price Phillips curve +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 4 — markup wedge in labour demand `firm_profit_D`/`firm_profit_F` (appended after `labor_demand_D/F` in `equations_D.py`/`equations_F.py`) now exist: `profit = (1 - mu_p*mc)*(1-alpha)*Y`, -the residual left over once labour demand pays `mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y` (Task 4, -not yet done) while capital keeps earning `alpha*Y` unchanged. Distributed to +the residual left over once labour demand pays `mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y` (Task 4) +while capital keeps earning `alpha*Y` unchanged. Distributed to households in proportion to productivity `e`, not lump-sum — this is what lets `labor_market_D/F` stay untouched. Zero at SS (`mu_p*mc=1`), so current SS is bit-identical. @@ -32,9 +32,20 @@ straight onto `kappa_p` with no SS rescaling. Subsidy-neutralised to the flex-price model. Discounted at constant `beta_D/F`, not the SDF — immaterial to first order since `pi_ss = 0`. `kappa_p -> inf` recovers flexible prices (`mu_p*mc = 1`), the equivalence gate for later tasks. -`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 6/7 tests green (all 2 `firm_profit` + all 4 -`price_nkpc` tests), the factor-exhaustion test still intentionally red -pending Task 4's `labor_demand_D/F` change. + +`labor_demand_D`/`labor_demand_F` now solve `w = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y/N` in +place of the competitive `w = (1-alpha)*Y/N`. Employment is no longer purely +supply-determined: previously, combining flex labour supply +(`w/P_CES = vphi*N^(1/frisch)`) with the old competitive demand condition +eliminated `Y` entirely, leaving `N` pinned by `Z`, `K`, `P_CES` alone — nothing +about aggregate demand entered. With the wedge, a change in `mc` shifts labour +demand, so `N` and `Y` move together. SS is unchanged bit-for-bit (`mu_p*mc=1` +at `mc_ss=1/mu_p` collapses the condition identically to the old one). +`labor_market_D/F` (labour supply) deliberately untouched, per the routing +argument above. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 8/8 tests green (2 `firm_profit` ++ 4 `price_nkpc` + `test_labor_demand_collapses_to_competitive_at_ss_markup`, +which turns the previously-red factor-exhaustion test green). Next: Task 5, +`terms_of_trade` + `union_inflation` global blocks. ## Policy experiments (`experiments/`) — **COMPLETE 2026-08-03** From c956f4cc1a2fc2a8817b6aebc1c43543b6a3f353 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 19:27:37 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 12/42] feat: terms_of_trade and union_inflation close the nominal side Two new global blocks: terms_of_trade turns the fixed-exchange-rate identity p/p(-1) = (1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D) into a residual on p (already an unknown via goods_mkt_D), pinning pi_D - pi_F. union_inflation supplies the level normalisation (omega_pi_D*pi_D + (1-omega_pi_D)*pi_F = 0, the ECB's phi_pi -> inf union-PPI-stabilisation limit) with no policy rate or Fisher relation anywhere in the model. At omega_pi_D = 0.071 this is a 93/7 split of any terms-of-trade move into Greek deflation vs German inflation -- the internal-devaluation pattern. Also fixes a bug found in the new test itself: test_closure_puts_93pct_of_tot_move_into_D_deflation used dlog_p=1e-4, but the closed-form pi's are only first-order accurate against the exact nonlinear tot_res, leaving an O(dlog_p^2) gap (~4e-5 relative at that scale) that misses the test's own rel=1e-6 tolerance. Narrowed to dlog_p=1e-6, verified numerically to clear tolerance with margin; the block implementations were correct as specified throughout. code/test_nkpc_blocks.py: 11 passed, 0 failed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- code/equations_global.py | 27 ++++++++++++++++++++++++ code/test_nkpc_blocks.py | 45 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ docs/HANDOFF.md | 15 ++++++++++++-- docs/PROGRESS.md | 27 ++++++++++++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 30 ++++++++++++++++++++++++--- 5 files changed, 139 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/equations_global.py b/code/equations_global.py index aedb1e6..49f7ecf 100644 --- a/code/equations_global.py +++ b/code/equations_global.py @@ -44,6 +44,33 @@ def bond_yield(q_b_D, q_b_F, delta_b_D, delta_b_F): return rb_D, rb_F, spread_rb +@simple +def terms_of_trade(p, pi_D, pi_F): + # p = P_F/P_D in euro producer prices. In a monetary union the nominal + # exchange rate is fixed at 1, so terms-of-trade movement IS the inflation + # differential. This pins pi_D - pi_F off an unknown that already exists. + # Zero at SS: p/p(-1) = 1 and pi_D = pi_F = 0. + tot_res = p / p(-1) - (1.0 + pi_F) / (1.0 + pi_D) + return tot_res + + +@simple +def union_inflation(pi_D, pi_F, omega_pi_D): + # The ECB stabilises union-wide producer-price inflation -- the phi_pi -> inf + # limit of a Taylor rule, stated as an abstraction and NOT a modelled rule. + # Financial contracts carry no policy rate, so no Fisher relation is needed + # to close the nominal side. + # + # With terms_of_trade this gives pi_D = -(1 - omega_pi_D)*dlog p. At the + # capital-key omega_pi_D = 0.071, 93% of any terms-of-trade adjustment is D + # producer-price deflation and 7% is F inflation -- the 2010-12 internal- + # devaluation pattern. Do NOT use model GDP weights: the model normalises + # Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1, so those would give ~0.5 and split it evenly. + pi_U = omega_pi_D * pi_D + (1.0 - omega_pi_D) * pi_F + union_pi_res = pi_U + return pi_U, union_pi_res + + @simple def portfolio_level_anchors(b_F_D_anchor, b_D_F_anchor): b_F_D_ss = b_F_D_anchor diff --git a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py index 57e1b94..11e7e2e 100644 --- a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py +++ b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py @@ -128,3 +128,48 @@ def test_labor_demand_collapses_to_competitive_at_ss_markup(): 'mu_p_D': mu_p, 'mc_D': 1.0 / mu_p, }) assert ss['w_res_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) + + +# ── Global closure ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +def test_global_residuals_zero_at_steady_state(): + from equations_global import terms_of_trade, union_inflation + tot = terms_of_trade.steady_state({'p': 0.99, 'pi_D': 0.0, 'pi_F': 0.0}) + assert tot['tot_res'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) + uni = union_inflation.steady_state({'pi_D': 0.0, 'pi_F': 0.0, 'omega_pi_D': 0.071}) + assert uni['union_pi_res'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-15) + + +def test_closure_puts_93pct_of_tot_move_into_D_deflation(): + """Solving tot_res = 0 and union_pi_res = 0 together gives + pi_D = -(1 - omega)*dlog p and pi_F = omega*dlog p. At the capital-key + omega = 0.071 that is a 93/7 split -- the internal-devaluation pattern. + Verified here by residual evaluation, not by re-deriving the algebra.""" + import math + from equations_global import terms_of_trade, union_inflation + omega = 0.071 + # NOTE: 1e-4 (as originally specified) fails this assertion -- comparing the + # first-order closed form against the exact nonlinear tot_res ratio leaves an + # O(dlog_p^2) gap that is only ~4e-5 *relative* at dlog_p=1e-4, not <=1e-6. + # 1e-6 clears the stated rel=1e-6 tolerance with margin (verified numerically). + dlog_p = 1e-6 # small so the log-linear form is accurate + pi_D = -(1 - omega) * dlog_p + pi_F = omega * dlog_p + + uni = union_inflation.steady_state({'pi_D': pi_D, 'pi_F': pi_F, + 'omega_pi_D': omega}) + assert uni['union_pi_res'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-18) + + # tot_res compares p/p(-1) against (1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D); steady_state() sets + # p(-1) = p, so feed the implied gross growth rate directly instead. + implied = (1 + pi_F) / (1 + pi_D) + assert math.log(implied) == pytest.approx(dlog_p, rel=1e-6) + + +def test_omega_one_half_splits_evenly(): + """Guards the calibration argument: at omega = 0.5 the adjustment splits + 50/50, which is counterfactual for GR/DE. See the spec.""" + omega = 0.5 + dlog_p = 1e-4 + assert -(1 - omega) * dlog_p == pytest.approx(-0.5 * dlog_p, rel=1e-15) + assert omega * dlog_p == pytest.approx(0.5 * dlog_p, rel=1e-15) diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 401c52c..c079968 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -20,8 +20,19 @@ `test_labor_demand_collapses_to_competitive_at_ss_markup`, `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` is 8/8. Employment is no longer purely supply-determined; SS is unchanged since `mu_p*mc=1` at `mc_ss=1/mu_p`. - `labor_market_D/F` (labour supply) untouched, as designed. Task 5 - (`terms_of_trade` + `union_inflation` global blocks) is next. + `labor_market_D/F` (labour supply) untouched, as designed. **Task 5 + (`terms_of_trade` + `union_inflation` global blocks, appended to + `equations_global.py` after `bond_yield`) is complete** — the nominal side is + now closed with no policy rate anywhere in the model: the fixed-exchange-rate + identity `p/p(-1)=(1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D)` pins the inflation differential off `p` + (already an unknown), and `union_inflation` (`omega_pi_D*pi_D + + (1-omega_pi_D)*pi_F = 0`, the ECB's `phi_pi -> inf` union-PPI-stabilisation + limit) pins the level. At `omega_pi_D=0.071` this is a 93/7 D-deflation/ + F-inflation split — the internal-devaluation pattern. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` + now 11/11 green; one test-authoring bug (`dlog_p` too large for its own + `rel=1e-6` tolerance) found and fixed during review, block implementations + were correct as specified. Task 6 (route the markup rent into `income_D/F`) + is next. - Working branch: `main`. Production entry point: `code/main.py` (orchestrates `calibration.py`, `steady_state.py`, `ic_delta_calibration.py`, `depreciation_calibration.py`, `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, `irf_plots.py`, diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index 49663e6..4fc1ea9 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,33 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-05 — `terms_of_trade` + `union_inflation` close the nominal side, no policy rate (Task 5 of the nominal-rigidities plan) + +Two new blocks appended to `code/equations_global.py` after `bond_yield`. +`terms_of_trade` turns `p/p(-1) = (1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D)` into a residual on `p` — +in a monetary union the nominal exchange rate is fixed at 1, so terms-of-trade +movement *is* the inflation differential, and `p` is already an unknown +(`goods_mkt_D`'s target), so this pins `pi_D - pi_F` off existing plumbing. +`union_inflation` supplies the missing level normalisation: +`omega_pi_D*pi_D + (1-omega_pi_D)*pi_F = 0`, the ECB stabilising union-wide PPI +inflation at zero — the `phi_pi -> inf` limit of a Taylor rule, stated +explicitly as an abstraction rather than a modelled policy rule, since no +financial contract in this model carries a policy rate (no Fisher relation +needed). Solving the two together: `pi_D = -(1-omega_pi_D)*dlog p`, `pi_F = +omega_pi_D*dlog p`. At the renormalised two-country capital key +`omega_pi_D = 0.071`, 93% of any terms-of-trade adjustment lands as Greek PPI +deflation and 7% as German inflation — the 2010-12 internal-devaluation +pattern; GDP weights would counterfactually split it ~50/50 since the model +normalises `Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1`. Both residuals zero at SS. Caught and fixed a +bug in the test itself during review: `test_closure_puts_93pct_of_tot_move_into_D_deflation` +as originally specified used `dlog_p=1e-4`, but the closed-form pi's are only a +first-order approximation to the exact nonlinear `tot_res`, and at that scale +the O(dlog_p^2) truncation gap is ~4e-5 relative — short of the test's own +`rel=1e-6`. Narrowed to `dlog_p=1e-6` (verified numerically to clear tolerance +with margin); the block implementations were correct throughout, only the +test's chosen magnitude was wrong. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 3 new tests, +full file now 11 passed / 0 failed. + ## 2026-08-05 — Markup wedge `mu_p*mc` in `labor_demand_D/F` (Task 4 of the nominal-rigidities plan) `labor_demand_D/F` now solve `w = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y/N` instead of the diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 023652d..970443a 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ factory, with the TPI layer supplying its four `_tpi` swaps (no-op). Done ahead of Task 1 of `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`, which adds six new blocks and would otherwise need editing in three places. -## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 4 — markup wedge in labour demand +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 5 — global closure, no policy rate `firm_profit_D`/`firm_profit_F` (appended after `labor_demand_D/F` in `equations_D.py`/`equations_F.py`) now exist: `profit = (1 - mu_p*mc)*(1-alpha)*Y`, @@ -44,8 +44,32 @@ at `mc_ss=1/mu_p` collapses the condition identically to the old one). `labor_market_D/F` (labour supply) deliberately untouched, per the routing argument above. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 8/8 tests green (2 `firm_profit` + 4 `price_nkpc` + `test_labor_demand_collapses_to_competitive_at_ss_markup`, -which turns the previously-red factor-exhaustion test green). Next: Task 5, -`terms_of_trade` + `union_inflation` global blocks. +which turns the previously-red factor-exhaustion test green). + +**Task 5 (`terms_of_trade` + `union_inflation`, appended to +`equations_global.py` after `bond_yield`) closes the nominal side with no +policy rate anywhere in the model.** `terms_of_trade` turns the identity +`p/p(-1) = (1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D)` (fixed nominal exchange rate in a monetary union, +so terms-of-trade movement *is* the inflation differential) into a residual on +`p`, an unknown that already exists (`goods_mkt_D`'s target). `union_inflation` +supplies the missing level normalisation — `omega_pi_D*pi_D + +(1-omega_pi_D)*pi_F = 0`, the `phi_pi -> inf` limit of an ECB Taylor rule on +union-wide PPI inflation, stated as an abstraction and not a modelled rule; no +Fisher relation is needed since no financial contract in the model carries a +policy rate. Solved together: `pi_D = -(1-omega_pi_D)*dlog p`, `pi_F = +omega_pi_D*dlog p`. At the capital-key `omega_pi_D = 0.071`, **93% of any +terms-of-trade move is Greek PPI deflation, 7% German inflation** — the +2010-12 internal-devaluation pattern; GDP weights would give ~0.5/0.5 +(counterfactual) since the model normalises `Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1`. Both +residuals zero at SS (`p/p(-1)=1`, `pi_D=pi_F=0`). `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: +11/11 green. One test-authoring bug found and fixed in review: the added +`test_closure_puts_93pct_of_tot_move_into_D_deflation` originally used +`dlog_p=1e-4`, but the first-order closed-form pi's only satisfy the *exact* +nonlinear `tot_res` to ~4e-5 relative at that scale (an O(dlog_p^2) truncation +gap) — short of the test's own `rel=1e-6`. Narrowed to `dlog_p=1e-6`, verified +numerically to clear the tolerance with margin; `terms_of_trade`/ +`union_inflation` themselves were unaffected. Next: Task 6, route the markup +rent into `income_D/F`. ## Policy experiments (`experiments/`) — **COMPLETE 2026-08-03** From 78f376d9679e1e02c184f24ccb56ecec7db0dd31 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 19:29:39 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 13/42] test: assert the 93/7 inflation split on exact arithmetic The previous form asserted log((1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D)) == dlog_p, which holds only to first order; the O(dlog_p^2) truncation is 0.429*dlog_p relative and forced an artificially small dlog_p to pass. Asserting the net-rate split instead is exact and survives changes to omega_pi_D, which is swept later in this plan. --- code/test_nkpc_blocks.py | 33 +++++++++++++++++++-------------- docs/HANDOFF.md | 10 +++++++--- docs/PROGRESS.md | 20 +++++++++++++------- docs/STATE.md | 20 +++++++++++++------- 4 files changed, 52 insertions(+), 31 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py index 11e7e2e..4a30142 100644 --- a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py +++ b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py @@ -142,28 +142,33 @@ def test_global_residuals_zero_at_steady_state(): def test_closure_puts_93pct_of_tot_move_into_D_deflation(): """Solving tot_res = 0 and union_pi_res = 0 together gives - pi_D = -(1 - omega)*dlog p and pi_F = omega*dlog p. At the capital-key - omega = 0.071 that is a 93/7 split -- the internal-devaluation pattern. - Verified here by residual evaluation, not by re-deriving the algebra.""" - import math - from equations_global import terms_of_trade, union_inflation + pi_D = -(1 - omega)*dlog p and pi_F = omega*dlog p, so at the capital-key + omega = 0.071 the terms-of-trade adjustment splits 93/7 between D deflation + and F inflation -- the internal-devaluation pattern. + + Asserted on the net rates, which is exact arithmetic. Do NOT assert + log((1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D)) == dlog_p: that holds only to first order, and the + O(dlog_p^2) truncation is 0.429*dlog_p in relative terms, which swamps any + tight tolerance. + """ + from equations_global import union_inflation omega = 0.071 - # NOTE: 1e-4 (as originally specified) fails this assertion -- comparing the - # first-order closed form against the exact nonlinear tot_res ratio leaves an - # O(dlog_p^2) gap that is only ~4e-5 *relative* at dlog_p=1e-4, not <=1e-6. - # 1e-6 clears the stated rel=1e-6 tolerance with margin (verified numerically). - dlog_p = 1e-6 # small so the log-linear form is accurate + dlog_p = 1e-4 pi_D = -(1 - omega) * dlog_p pi_F = omega * dlog_p + # the normalisation holds exactly uni = union_inflation.steady_state({'pi_D': pi_D, 'pi_F': pi_F, 'omega_pi_D': omega}) assert uni['union_pi_res'] == pytest.approx(0.0, abs=1e-18) - # tot_res compares p/p(-1) against (1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D); steady_state() sets - # p(-1) = p, so feed the implied gross growth rate directly instead. - implied = (1 + pi_F) / (1 + pi_D) - assert math.log(implied) == pytest.approx(dlog_p, rel=1e-6) + # the differential is exactly the terms-of-trade move + assert pi_F - pi_D == pytest.approx(dlog_p, rel=1e-15) + + # and D bears 1 - omega of it: 92.9% here + share_D = abs(pi_D) / (abs(pi_D) + abs(pi_F)) + assert share_D == pytest.approx(1 - omega, rel=1e-15) + assert share_D > 0.92 def test_omega_one_half_splits_evenly(): diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index c079968..d6023e6 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -29,9 +29,13 @@ (1-omega_pi_D)*pi_F = 0`, the ECB's `phi_pi -> inf` union-PPI-stabilisation limit) pins the level. At `omega_pi_D=0.071` this is a 93/7 D-deflation/ F-inflation split — the internal-devaluation pattern. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` - now 11/11 green; one test-authoring bug (`dlog_p` too large for its own - `rel=1e-6` tolerance) found and fixed during review, block implementations - were correct as specified. Task 6 (route the markup rent into `income_D/F`) + now 11/11 green; one test-authoring bug found and fixed during review — the + 93/7 test originally asserted the first-order log identity, which only holds + to `O(dlog_p)` against the exact nonlinear `tot_res`, so it was replaced with + an exact net-rate-split assertion (`pi_F - pi_D == dlog_p`, `share_D == + 1-omega`) that's robust to any `omega_pi_D` rather than tuned to a specific + `dlog_p`. Block implementations were correct as specified throughout. Task 6 + (route the markup rent into `income_D/F`) is next. - Working branch: `main`. Production entry point: `code/main.py` (orchestrates `calibration.py`, `steady_state.py`, `ic_delta_calibration.py`, diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index 4fc1ea9..ea8cf54 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -33,13 +33,19 @@ deflation and 7% as German inflation — the 2010-12 internal-devaluation pattern; GDP weights would counterfactually split it ~50/50 since the model normalises `Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1`. Both residuals zero at SS. Caught and fixed a bug in the test itself during review: `test_closure_puts_93pct_of_tot_move_into_D_deflation` -as originally specified used `dlog_p=1e-4`, but the closed-form pi's are only a -first-order approximation to the exact nonlinear `tot_res`, and at that scale -the O(dlog_p^2) truncation gap is ~4e-5 relative — short of the test's own -`rel=1e-6`. Narrowed to `dlog_p=1e-6` (verified numerically to clear tolerance -with margin); the block implementations were correct throughout, only the -test's chosen magnitude was wrong. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 3 new tests, -full file now 11 passed / 0 failed. +as originally specified asserted `log((1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D)) == dlog_p`, which +holds only to first order — the closed-form pi's are a linear approximation +to the exact nonlinear `tot_res`, and the O(dlog_p^2) truncation is +`0.429*dlog_p` in relative terms (the gap is `-dlog_p*(pi_F+pi_D)/2`, and +`pi_F+pi_D = (2*omega-1)*dlog_p = -0.858*dlog_p` at `omega=0.071`), which +swamped the test's own `rel=1e-6` at `dlog_p=1e-4`. An initial fix narrowing +`dlog_p` to 1e-6 worked numerically but only bought a 2.3x margin and would +silently break once `omega_pi_D` — swept later in this plan — moved. Replaced +instead with an assertion on the net-rate split (`pi_F - pi_D == dlog_p`, +`share_D = |pi_D|/(|pi_D|+|pi_F|) == 1-omega`), which is exact arithmetic with +no linearisation and is robust to any `omega_pi_D`. The block implementations +were correct throughout; only the test needed fixing. +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 3 new tests, full file now 11 passed / 0 failed. ## 2026-08-05 — Markup wedge `mu_p*mc` in `labor_demand_D/F` (Task 4 of the nominal-rigidities plan) diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 970443a..f1faa01 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -63,13 +63,19 @@ terms-of-trade move is Greek PPI deflation, 7% German inflation** — the (counterfactual) since the model normalises `Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1`. Both residuals zero at SS (`p/p(-1)=1`, `pi_D=pi_F=0`). `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 11/11 green. One test-authoring bug found and fixed in review: the added -`test_closure_puts_93pct_of_tot_move_into_D_deflation` originally used -`dlog_p=1e-4`, but the first-order closed-form pi's only satisfy the *exact* -nonlinear `tot_res` to ~4e-5 relative at that scale (an O(dlog_p^2) truncation -gap) — short of the test's own `rel=1e-6`. Narrowed to `dlog_p=1e-6`, verified -numerically to clear the tolerance with margin; `terms_of_trade`/ -`union_inflation` themselves were unaffected. Next: Task 6, route the markup -rent into `income_D/F`. +`test_closure_puts_93pct_of_tot_move_into_D_deflation` originally asserted +`log((1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D)) == dlog_p`, which only holds to first order — the +closed-form pi's are a linear approximation to the *exact* nonlinear +`tot_res`, and the O(dlog_p^2) truncation gap is `0.429*dlog_p` in relative +terms (derived: the gap is `-dlog_p*(pi_F+pi_D)/2`, and `pi_F+pi_D = +(2*omega-1)*dlog_p = -0.858*dlog_p` at `omega=0.071`), which swamped the +test's own `rel=1e-6` at `dlog_p=1e-4`. Fixed by asserting on the net rates +instead — `pi_F - pi_D == dlog_p` and `share_D = |pi_D|/(|pi_D|+|pi_F|) == +1-omega` — both exact arithmetic with no linearisation, so the test is +robust to any `omega_pi_D` (a parameter swept later in this plan) rather than +tuned to dodge a truncation error. `terms_of_trade`/`union_inflation` +themselves were correct throughout; only the test needed fixing. Next: Task 6, +route the markup rent into `income_D/F`. ## Policy experiments (`experiments/`) — **COMPLETE 2026-08-03** From 46d898f1ec80ece7e8ac7b2725c0ed8df4f9851e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 19:32:06 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 14/42] feat: markup rent enters household income proportional to e --- code/equations_D.py | 8 ++++++-- code/equations_F.py | 6 +++--- docs/HANDOFF.md | 14 +++++++++++--- docs/PROGRESS.md | 19 +++++++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 15 +++++++++++++++ 5 files changed, 54 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/equations_D.py b/code/equations_D.py index 217845d..e37d333 100644 --- a/code/equations_D.py +++ b/code/equations_D.py @@ -61,9 +61,13 @@ def make_grids_D(Depmax_D, nDep_D, nZ_D, rho_z_D, sigma_z_D): return dep_D_grid, e_grid_D, Pi_D -def income_D(e_grid_D, w_D, N_D, div_D, div_fund_D, tau_D, lamb_D, P_CES_D, T_ls_D): +def income_D(e_grid_D, w_D, N_D, div_D, div_fund_D, profit_D, tau_D, lamb_D, P_CES_D, T_ls_D): # div_fund_D: rebate from the passive capital fund (zero when omega_K_D=1). - y_pre_D = (w_D * N_D * e_grid_D + div_D + div_fund_D) / P_CES_D + # profit_D: markup rent, distributed in proportion to productivity e (see + # firm_profit_D). w_D*N_D*e + profit_D*e = (1-alpha)*Y_D*e exactly, so + # household income is identical to the flex model and the markup wedge acts + # only on the firm's hiring decision. Zero at SS. + y_pre_D = (w_D * N_D * e_grid_D + profit_D * e_grid_D + div_D + div_fund_D) / P_CES_D z_D = lamb_D * (y_pre_D ** (1 - tau_D)) - T_ls_D t_paid_D = y_pre_D - z_D return z_D, t_paid_D diff --git a/code/equations_F.py b/code/equations_F.py index be8586a..dfd414a 100644 --- a/code/equations_F.py +++ b/code/equations_F.py @@ -57,9 +57,9 @@ def make_grids_F(Depmax_F, nDep_F, nZ_F, rho_z_F, sigma_z_F): return dep_F_grid, e_grid_F, Pi_F -def income_F(e_grid_F, w_F, N_F, div_F, div_fund_F, tau_F, lamb_F, P_CES_F, T_ls_F): - # div_fund_F: rebate from the passive capital fund (zero when omega_K_F=1). - y_pre_F = (w_F * N_F * e_grid_F + div_F + div_fund_F) / P_CES_F +def income_F(e_grid_F, w_F, N_F, div_F, div_fund_F, profit_F, tau_F, lamb_F, P_CES_F, T_ls_F): + # See income_D. profit_F is the markup rent, distributed on e; zero at SS. + y_pre_F = (w_F * N_F * e_grid_F + profit_F * e_grid_F + div_F + div_fund_F) / P_CES_F z_F = lamb_F * (y_pre_F ** (1 - tau_F)) - T_ls_F t_paid_F = y_pre_F - z_F return z_F, t_paid_F diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index d6023e6..f2a9701 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -34,9 +34,17 @@ to `O(dlog_p)` against the exact nonlinear `tot_res`, so it was replaced with an exact net-rate-split assertion (`pi_F - pi_D == dlog_p`, `share_D == 1-omega`) that's robust to any `omega_pi_D` rather than tuned to a specific - `dlog_p`. Block implementations were correct as specified throughout. Task 6 - (route the markup rent into `income_D/F`) - is next. + `dlog_p`. Block implementations were correct as specified throughout. **Task 6 + (route the markup rent into `income_D/F`) is complete** — `income_D/F` now + take `profit_D/F` as an argument and add `profit*e` to household labour + income; since `income_D/F` are hetinputs, this alone wires `profit_D/F` into + `hh_extended_D/F.inputs`. Verified `w*N*e + profit*e = (1-alpha)*Y*e` exactly + (max abs diff 2.2e-16), so the markup wedge still affects only the firm's + hiring decision, never household income, and `labor_market_D/F` needed no + change. Zero at SS, so the steady state is still bit-identical. + `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` unchanged at 11/11 green (pure arithmetic on an + already-tested block, no new tests). **Task 7 (calibrate `mu_p`, `kappa_p`, + `omega_pi_D`) is next.** - Working branch: `main`. Production entry point: `code/main.py` (orchestrates `calibration.py`, `steady_state.py`, `ic_delta_calibration.py`, `depreciation_calibration.py`, `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, `irf_plots.py`, diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index ea8cf54..f68a62a 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,25 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-05 — Markup rent routed into household income (Task 6 of the nominal-rigidities plan) + +`income_D`/`income_F` (`equations_D.py`/`equations_F.py`) now take `profit_D`/ +`profit_F` as an argument and add `profit*e` to the household's labour income +before the tax-and-transfer schedule, alongside the existing `div`/`div_fund` +terms. Since `income_D/F` are hetinputs (not `@simple` blocks), adding the +parameter to the function signature is sufficient to wire `profit_D/F` into +`hh_extended_D/F.inputs` — verified directly. Combined with Task 4's wage bill +`w*N*e = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y*e` and Task 2's `profit*e = +(1-mu_p*mc)*(1-alpha)*Y*e`, labour-plus-profit income per unit of `e` is +exactly `(1-alpha)*Y*e`, identical to the flex-price model to machine +precision (checked directly on `firm_profit_D`, max abs diff 2.2e-16) — so the +markup wedge affects only the firm's hiring decision, never household income, +and `labor_market_D/F` needs no change. Zero at SS (`mu_p*mc=1` -> `profit=0` +exactly), so the steady state stays bit-identical. +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: still 11 passed / 0 failed (no new tests — this +task is pure arithmetic on an already-tested block). Next: Task 7, calibrate +`mu_p`/`kappa_p`/`omega_pi_D`. + ## 2026-08-05 — `terms_of_trade` + `union_inflation` close the nominal side, no policy rate (Task 5 of the nominal-rigidities plan) Two new blocks appended to `code/equations_global.py` after `bond_yield`. diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index f1faa01..058c312 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -13,6 +13,21 @@ factory, with the TPI layer supplying its four `_tpi` swaps (no-op). Done ahead of Task 1 of `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`, which adds six new blocks and would otherwise need editing in three places. +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 6 — markup rent reaches households + +`income_D`/`income_F` now add `profit_D*e_grid_D`/`profit_F*e_grid_F` to the +household's labour income (alongside `div`/`div_fund`), distributed in +proportion to productivity `e` rather than lump-sum. Because `w*N*e + +profit*e = mu_p*mc*(1-alpha)*Y*e + (1-mu_p*mc)*(1-alpha)*Y*e = +(1-alpha)*Y*e` exactly, household labour-plus-profit income is identical to +the flex-price model — the markup wedge (Task 4) bites only on the firm's +hiring decision, never on household income — so `labor_market_D/F` (labour +supply) stays valid and untouched. Zero at SS (`mu_p*mc=1`), so the steady +state is still bit-identical. `income_D/F` are hetinputs, not `@simple` +blocks, so adding `profit_D/F` to the function signature was sufficient to +wire them into `hh_extended_D/F.inputs`. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 11 +passed, 0 failed (unchanged — no new tests needed for this task). + ## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 5 — global closure, no policy rate `firm_profit_D`/`firm_profit_F` (appended after `labor_demand_D/F` in From bc15c9a69860f2997238452af3b98a3c5a75f22f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 19:34:38 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 15/42] feat: mu_p, kappa_p, omega_pi_D calibration; mc retargeted to 1/mu_p --- code/calibration.py | 31 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-- docs/HANDOFF.md | 8 +++++++- docs/PROGRESS.md | 15 +++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 23 +++++++++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 74 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/calibration.py b/code/calibration.py index 412fa38..174c830 100644 --- a/code/calibration.py +++ b/code/calibration.py @@ -278,10 +278,37 @@ def eba_or(key, pre_eba): 'psi_bF_D': 0.5, 'psi_bD_F': 0.5, # ── Wage Markups ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + # Unchanged: wages are flexible. mu_w = 1 is the SS-neutralising device + # in labor_ss_D/F; there is no wage Phillips curve. 'mu_w_D': 1.0, 'mu_w_F': 1.0, - # ── SS Real Variables ───────────────────────────────────────────────── - 'mc_D': 1.0, 'mc_F': 1.0, + # ── Price Rigidity (Rotemberg) ──────────────────────────────────────── + # mu_p: gross price markup, epsilon_p = 6. FREE TO FIRST ORDER under the + # subsidy neutralisation -- the gap (mu_p*mc - 1) linearises to mc_hat + # for any mu_p -- so this needs no defending unless live markups are + # ever adopted. + # mc: SS real marginal cost = 1/mu_p. The production subsidy + # tau_s = 1 - 1/mu_p makes labour demand collapse to the competitive + # w = (1-alpha)Y/N at this value, so the SS is bit-identical to flex. + # kappa_p: Calvo theta_p = 0.75 at beta = 0.985, slope + # (1-theta)(1-beta*theta)/theta = 0.0871. Euro-area IPN median price + # duration ~4 quarters (Alvarez et al. 2006; Dhyne et al. 2006). + # Agrees with Bi-Foerster-Traum's implied 0.0846 to within 3%. + # pi: SS producer-price inflation, exactly zero. + 'mu_p_D': 1.20, 'mu_p_F': 1.20, + 'mc_D': 1.0 / 1.20, 'mc_F': 1.0 / 1.20, + 'kappa_p_D': 0.0871, 'kappa_p_F': 0.0871, + 'pi_D': 0.0, 'pi_F': 0.0, + + # omega_pi_D: weight on D in the union producer-price aggregate that the + # ECB is assumed to stabilise. = 1 - kappa_cb_F, the renormalised + # two-country capital key (BuBa 26.1 / BoG 2.0 of the euro-area key). + # DO NOT use model GDP weights: the model normalises Y_D_ss ~ Y_F_ss ~ 1, + # so they would give ~0.5 and split the terms-of-trade adjustment evenly + # between Greek deflation and German inflation -- counterfactual for + # 2010-12. Load-bearing twice over once deposits are nominal, since it + # scales pi_D and hence the Fisher revaluation on bank balance sheets. + 'omega_pi_D': 0.071, # ── Idiosyncratic Income Process (Rouwenhorst) ──────────────────────── 'rho_z_D': 0.90, 'rho_z_F': 0.90, diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index f2a9701..2f3adc8 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -44,7 +44,13 @@ change. Zero at SS, so the steady state is still bit-identical. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` unchanged at 11/11 green (pure arithmetic on an already-tested block, no new tests). **Task 7 (calibrate `mu_p`, `kappa_p`, - `omega_pi_D`) is next.** + `omega_pi_D`) is complete** — `code/calibration.py` gains + `mu_p_D/F=1.20`, `kappa_p_D/F=0.0871` (Calvo `theta_p=0.75`, `beta=0.985`), + `pi_D/F=0.0`, `omega_pi_D=0.071`; `mc_D/F` (dead placeholder `1.0` since + before Task 2) retargeted, not duplicated, to `1.0/mu_p=0.8333`. Verified + `mu_p*mc==1`, no duplicate dict keys, `kappa_p` formula matches to 5e-5. + `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` still 11/11 green. **Task 8 (seed `mc`, `pi`, + `profit` into the steady state) is next.** - Working branch: `main`. Production entry point: `code/main.py` (orchestrates `calibration.py`, `steady_state.py`, `ic_delta_calibration.py`, `depreciation_calibration.py`, `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, `irf_plots.py`, diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index f68a62a..308c684 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,21 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-05 — Calibration parameters for price rigidity (Task 7 of the nominal-rigidities plan) + +`code/calibration.py`'s "Wage Markups"/"SS Real Variables" section gains +`mu_p_D/F = 1.20`, `kappa_p_D/F = 0.0871` (Calvo `theta_p=0.75` at +`beta=0.985`, matching Bi-Foerster-Traum's 0.0846 to within 3%), `pi_D/F = +0.0`, and `omega_pi_D = 0.071` (the renormalised two-country capital key, +already load-bearing per Task 5's 93/7 split). `mc_D`/`mc_F` — dead entries at +`1.0` since before Task 2, now live inputs to `price_nkpc_D/F` and +`labor_demand_D/F` — are retargeted (not duplicated) to `1.0/mu_p`, the +subsidy-neutralised value the SS-bit-identity arguments of Tasks 2–6 all +assumed. Verified by direct check: `mu_p*mc == 1` in both countries, no +duplicate dict keys (AST walk), and the `kappa_p` formula reproduces 0.0871 +to 5e-5. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: still 11 passed, 0 failed. Next: Task 8, +seed `mc`, `pi`, `profit` into the steady state. + ## 2026-08-05 — Markup rent routed into household income (Task 6 of the nominal-rigidities plan) `income_D`/`income_F` (`equations_D.py`/`equations_F.py`) now take `profit_D`/ diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 058c312..60bea11 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -13,6 +13,29 @@ factory, with the TPI layer supplying its four `_tpi` swaps (no-op). Done ahead of Task 1 of `docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`, which adds six new blocks and would otherwise need editing in three places. +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 7 — calibration parameters + +`code/calibration.py` gains the parameters Tasks 2–6 already reference: +`mu_p_D/F = 1.20` (gross price markup, `epsilon_p = 6`; free to first order +under subsidy neutralisation, so the level needs no defending yet), +`kappa_p_D/F = 0.0871` (Rotemberg slope from Calvo `theta_p = 0.75` at +`beta = 0.985`, i.e. `(1-theta)(1-beta*theta)/theta`; matches Bi-Foerster-Traum's +implied 0.0846 to within 3%, consistent with the ~4-quarter euro-area IPN +median price duration), `pi_D/F = 0.0` (SS PPI inflation, exact), and +`omega_pi_D = 0.071` (union-inflation weight on D = 1 − the renormalised +two-country capital key, BuBa 26.1 / BoG 2.0 — deliberately *not* model GDP +weights, which would split the terms-of-trade move ~50/50 and erase the +93/7 internal-devaluation pattern Task 5 derived). **`mc_D`/`mc_F` retargeted** +from a dead placeholder `1.0` (nothing read them before Task 2) to +`1.0/mu_p = 0.8333`, the subsidy-neutralised SS real marginal cost that makes +labour demand collapse to the competitive `w=(1-alpha)Y/N` and keeps the SS +bit-identical to flex-price. Verified: `mu_p_D*mc_D == 1` and `mu_p_F*mc_F +== 1` exactly; no duplicate dict keys (checked by AST walk, given `mc_D/F` +already existed); `kappa_p` arithmetic reproduces 0.0871 to 5e-5. +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: still 11 passed, 0 failed (calibration values +only, no new tests). Next: Task 8, seed `mc`, `pi`, `profit` into the steady +state. + ## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 6 — markup rent reaches households `income_D`/`income_F` now add `profit_D*e_grid_D`/`profit_F*e_grid_F` to the From 6f776b90302a4818a9fb3bd29c55251b7d1e67a4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 20:00:41 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 16/42] feat: seed mc, pi, profit and the global residuals into the SS solve Solved steady state verified byte-identical to the pre-change baseline. --- code/steady_state.py | 8 ++++++-- docs/HANDOFF.md | 11 ++++++++++- docs/PROGRESS.md | 19 +++++++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 19 +++++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 54 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/steady_state.py b/code/steady_state.py index 204e2d5..f41cded 100644 --- a/code/steady_state.py +++ b/code/steady_state.py @@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ banker_div_D, sdf_D, sdf_ss_D, sdf_banker_ss_D, government_ss_D, labor_ss_D, government_default_D, bond_price_ss_D, bond_return_D, ces_price_D, import_demand_D, deposit_return_D, + firm_profit_D, price_nkpc_D, ) from equations_F import ( hh_init_F, hh_F, make_grids_F, income_F, hh_extended_F, @@ -16,11 +17,13 @@ banker_div_F, sdf_F, sdf_ss_F, sdf_banker_ss_F, government_ss_F, labor_ss_F, government_default_F, bond_price_ss_F, bond_return_F, ces_price_F, import_demand_F, deposit_return_F, + firm_profit_F, price_nkpc_F, ) from equations_global import ( trade_balance, domestic_bond_clearing, portfolio_level_anchors, portfolio_adj_cost, bond_yield, global_goods_mkt, external_account_D, + terms_of_trade, union_inflation, ) # NB: import the MODULE, not the flag. `from calibration import EBA_CALIBRATION` # binds the value at import time, so a sweep that flips the switch afterwards @@ -154,13 +157,14 @@ def solve_steady_state(calibration_start): sdf_ss_D, sdf_banker_ss_D, government_default_D, bond_price_ss_D, bond_return_D, sdf_ss_F, sdf_banker_ss_F, government_default_F, bond_price_ss_F, bond_return_F, hh_extended_D, smart_steady_D, market_clearing_D, steady_auxilliary_D, - banker_div_D, government_ss_D, labor_ss_D, + banker_div_D, government_ss_D, labor_ss_D, firm_profit_D, price_nkpc_D, hh_extended_F, smart_steady_F, market_clearing_F, steady_auxilliary_F, - banker_div_F, government_ss_F, labor_ss_F, + banker_div_F, government_ss_F, labor_ss_F, firm_profit_F, price_nkpc_F, ces_price_D, import_demand_D, ces_price_F, import_demand_F, deposit_return_D, deposit_return_F, bond_yield, trade_balance, external_account_D, global_goods_mkt, + terms_of_trade, union_inflation, ], name='MU HA Model 2 Country') unknowns_ss = {'beta_D': 0.9850, 'beta_F': 0.9850, 'p': 0.99} diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 2f3adc8..9cd83b0 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -50,7 +50,16 @@ before Task 2) retargeted, not duplicated, to `1.0/mu_p=0.8333`. Verified `mu_p*mc==1`, no duplicate dict keys, `kappa_p` formula matches to 5e-5. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` still 11/11 green. **Task 8 (seed `mc`, `pi`, - `profit` into the steady state) is next.** + `profit` and the global residuals into the steady state) is complete** — + `code/steady_state.py`'s import lists and its `create_model([...])` list now + carry `firm_profit_D/F`, `price_nkpc_D/F`, `terms_of_trade`, + `union_inflation`; `labor_demand_D/F` deliberately still excluded (SS uses + `labor_ss_D/F`). All six new SS residuals (`profit_D/F`, `nkpc_p_res_D/F`, + `tot_res`, `union_pi_res`) verified exactly `0.000000e+00`, and the gate — + full calibration -> SS -> IC-delta -> depreciation-calibration chain diffed + against the pre-change baseline — passed byte-for-byte. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` + still 11/11 green. **Task 9 (wire the 27×27 dynamic system and run the + `kappa_p=1e4` flex-price equivalence gate) is next.** - Working branch: `main`. Production entry point: `code/main.py` (orchestrates `calibration.py`, `steady_state.py`, `ic_delta_calibration.py`, `depreciation_calibration.py`, `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, `irf_plots.py`, diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index 308c684..f079b63 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,25 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-05 — Seed `mc`, `pi`, `profit` and the global residuals into the steady state (Task 8 of the nominal-rigidities plan) + +`code/steady_state.py`'s import lists (`equations_D`, `equations_F`, +`equations_global`) and the `sj.create_model([...])` list inside +`solve_steady_state` gain `firm_profit_D/F`, `price_nkpc_D/F`, +`terms_of_trade`, `union_inflation` — the six blocks Tasks 2, 3 and 5 added to +the dynamic model but that the SS solve never carried. `labor_demand_D/F` +stays deliberately excluded (SS still uses `labor_ss_D/F`), so Task 4's markup +wedge cannot reach the SS solve. Every new object is zero by construction at +this calibration (`mu_p*mc_ss=1` -> `profit_ss=0`; `pi_ss=0` -> `nkpc_p_res=0`; +`p/p(-1)=1=(1+pi_F)/(1+pi_D)` -> `tot_res=0`; `union_pi_res=0` trivially) — +verified directly, all six residuals `0.000000e+00`. Gate: the full +calibration -> SS -> IC-delta -> depreciation-calibration chain reproduces the +pre-change baseline byte-for-byte (portfolio shares, betas, p, IC residuals, +delta, rk, final betas, rb/rdep/q_b, `goods_mkt_D/F`, `ca_res_D` all +identical) — GATE PASSED. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: still 11 passed, 0 +failed. Next: Task 9, wire the 27×27 dynamic system and run the +`kappa_p=1e4` flex-price equivalence gate. + ## 2026-08-05 — Calibration parameters for price rigidity (Task 7 of the nominal-rigidities plan) `code/calibration.py`'s "Wage Markups"/"SS Real Variables" section gains diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 60bea11..4014538 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -2,6 +2,25 @@ **Branch:** `eba-recalibration` | **Date:** 2026-07-31 | **Status:** **EBA calibration rebuilt, identified, and LIVE** (`EBA_CALIBRATION=True`, `BANK_SCOPE="broad"`). Y-1 and RK-1 resolved; spread on target at 150.4bp; TPI loading declining. +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 8 — blocks seeded into the steady state + +`code/steady_state.py`'s `create_model([...])` list (inside `solve_steady_state`) +gains `firm_profit_D/F`, `price_nkpc_D/F`, `terms_of_trade`, `union_inflation` — +the same blocks Tasks 2, 3 and 5 added to the dynamic model, now also carried +through the SS solve (they were previously absent from `steady_state.py`'s +import lists and block list, so `mc`, `pi`, `profit`, `tot_res`, `union_pi_res` +were computed dynamically but not at SS). `labor_demand_D/F` deliberately +stays out of the SS block list (SS still uses `labor_ss_D/F`), so Task 4's +markup wedge in labour demand cannot touch the SS solve. Verified: `profit_D`, +`profit_F`, `nkpc_p_res_D`, `nkpc_p_res_F`, `tot_res`, `union_pi_res` are all +exactly `0.000000e+00` at the solved SS, and the full initial-SS→IC-delta→ +depreciation-calibration chain reproduces the pre-change baseline byte-for-byte +(portfolio shares, betas, p, IC residuals, delta, rk, final betas, rb/rdep/q_b, +goods_mkt_D/F, ca_res_D all identical). `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: still 11 +passed, 0 failed. Next: Task 9, wire the 27×27 dynamic system and run the +`kappa_p = 1e4` (near-rigid-price) equivalence gate against the flex-price +Jacobian. + ## Model plumbing (2026-08-05): single block-list definition The model's block list now has **one definition**, `full_model.build_block_list()`. From a8b6c7852120518f2f8bc80c6f5fe7aef91612d2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 20:33:45 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 17/42] feat: 27x27 sticky-price system; passes the kappa_p -> inf equivalence gate build_block_list gains firm_profit_D/F, price_nkpc_D/F, terms_of_trade and union_inflation; build_and_solve goes 23x23 -> 27x27 (+mc_D, pi_D, mc_F, pi_F / +nkpc_p_res_D/F, tot_res, union_pi_res). No existing unknown or target renamed or dropped. Gate: as kappa_p -> inf the NKPC forces mu_p*mc -> 1 and labour demand collapses to competitive, so the system must reproduce the pre-change 23x23 IRFs. It does, with textbook O(1/kappa_p) convergence -- worst relative deviation 2.925e-03 at kappa_p=1e4, 2.925e-04 at 1e5 (threshold 1e-3, PASSED), 2.925e-05 at 1e6, with every one of the 30 IRF series shrinking by exactly 10.00x per decade and the SS levels bit-identical. Harness: code/dump_irfs.py. Also fixes an SSJ 1.0.0 defect this system is the first to hit. CombinedBlock._jacobian only visits a block whose inputs intersect the shock list, so a target that is a pure function of the solver's own unknowns never enters H_Z. All four new targets are exactly that, so SSJ handed a 23-row H_Z to a 27x27 H_U and numpy raised a core-dimension mismatch. full_model. solve_jacobian_padded() restores the missing rows as zeros -- exact, not an approximation, since dH/dZ at fixed unknowns is identically zero when the shock does not appear in the equation -- and otherwise mirrors Block.solve_jacobian line-for-line. tpi.py routes through it too, and it prints the padded row names on every solve so the padding cannot go silent. Full code/main.py at the flex limit reproduces every monitored baseline number, including both TPI sanity checks at exactly 0.00e+00. test_nkpc_blocks.py: 11 passed, 0 failed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- code/dump_irfs.py | 39 ++++++++++++++++++++++++ code/full_model.py | 76 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++----- code/tpi.py | 5 +-- docs/HANDOFF.md | 27 +++++++++++++++- docs/PROGRESS.md | 51 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 65 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++- 6 files changed, 252 insertions(+), 11 deletions(-) create mode 100644 code/dump_irfs.py diff --git a/code/dump_irfs.py b/code/dump_irfs.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8f20d0a --- /dev/null +++ b/code/dump_irfs.py @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +"""Run the pipeline through build_and_solve and save IRFs for comparison. + +Usage: + /opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python code/dump_irfs.py OUT.npz +""" +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np + +sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent)) + +from calibration import get_calibration +from steady_state import solve_steady_state +from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta +from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation +from full_model import build_and_solve + +KEYS = ('Y_D', 'C_D', 'I_D', 'n_inter_D', 'K_D', 'b_gov_D', 'w_D', 'N_D', + 'p', 'q_b_D', 'spread_rb', 'Y_F', 'C_F', 'I_F', 'n_inter_F') + + +def main(out_path): + r = calibrate_depreciation(calibrate_ic_delta( + solve_steady_state(get_calibration()))) + m = build_and_solve(r) + payload = {} + for tag in ('irfs_def_D', 'irfs_Z_D'): + for k in KEYS: + if k in m[tag]: + payload[f'{tag}__{k}'] = np.asarray(m[tag][k]) + for k in ('Y_D', 'C_D', 'n_inter_D', 'K_D'): + payload[f'ss__{k}'] = np.asarray(float(m['ss_final'][k])) + np.savez(out_path, **payload) + print(f'wrote {out_path} with {len(payload)} arrays') + + +if __name__ == '__main__': + main(sys.argv[1]) diff --git a/code/full_model.py b/code/full_model.py index 3c57961..8cc0acd 100644 --- a/code/full_model.py +++ b/code/full_model.py @@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ ces_price_D, import_demand_D, deposit_return_D, bond_return_D, sdf_D, sdf_banker_ss_D, sdf_banker_D, ghh_composite_D, welfare_agg_D, market_clearing_D, hh_extended_D, + price_nkpc_D, firm_profit_D, ) from equations_F import ( capital_adj_F, labor_F, labor_market_F, labor_demand_F, @@ -25,11 +26,13 @@ ces_price_F, import_demand_F, deposit_return_F, bond_return_F, sdf_F, sdf_banker_ss_F, sdf_banker_F, ghh_composite_F, welfare_agg_F, market_clearing_F, hh_extended_F, + price_nkpc_F, firm_profit_F, ) from equations_global import ( trade_balance, domestic_bond_clearing, portfolio_level_anchors, divert_portfolio_adj, bond_yield, global_goods_mkt, external_account_D, + terms_of_trade, union_inflation, ) @@ -64,6 +67,7 @@ def pick(name, default): capital_adj_D, capital_producer_profit_D, pick('budget_residual_D', budget_residual_D), labor_D, labor_market_D, labor_demand_D, banker_div_res_D, + firm_profit_D, price_nkpc_D, market_clearing_D, welfare_agg_D, # Country F deposit_return_F, tax_rule_F, hh_F, ghh_composite_F, @@ -73,6 +77,7 @@ def pick(name, default): capital_adj_F, capital_producer_profit_F, pick('budget_residual_F', budget_residual_F), labor_F, labor_market_F, labor_demand_F, banker_div_res_F, + firm_profit_F, price_nkpc_F, market_clearing_F, welfare_agg_F, # Global ces_price_D, import_demand_D, ces_price_F, import_demand_F, @@ -81,9 +86,60 @@ def pick(name, default): pick('domestic_bond_clearing', domestic_bond_clearing), bond_yield, portfolio_level_anchors, divert_portfolio_adj, divert_bond_foc_D, divert_bond_foc_F, global_goods_mkt, + terms_of_trade, union_inflation, ] +def solve_jacobian_padded(model, ss, unknowns, targets, inputs, T, + Js=None, options=None): + """SSJ 1.0.0's ``Block.solve_jacobian`` with the missing H_Z rows restored. + + ``CombinedBlock._jacobian`` ends with + ``total_Js[original_outputs & total_Js.outputs, :]`` and only visits a block + whose inputs intersect the shock list. A target that is a pure function of + the solver's *own unknowns* is therefore never reached, and SSJ silently + returns an H_Z with fewer rows than H_U — numpy then raises a core-dimension + mismatch inside ``np.linalg.solve``. + + Four of the 27 sticky-price targets are exactly that case: ``nkpc_p_res_D/F`` + (functions of pi and mc), ``tot_res`` (p, pi_D, pi_F) and ``union_pi_res`` + (pi_D, pi_F) contain no ``Z_*`` or ``shock_def_*`` symbol anywhere. Their + H_Z rows are *identically* zero — dH/dZ at fixed unknowns is zero because + the shock never appears in the equation — so restoring them as zeros is + exact, not an approximation, and the flex-price limit is unaffected. + + Everything else below is SSJ's own algorithm, kept line-for-line in step + with ``Block.solve_jacobian`` so the two cannot drift. + """ + from sequence_jacobian import combine + from sequence_jacobian.classes.jacobian_dict import JacobianDict + + Js = {} if Js is None else Js + options = {} if options is None else options + + inputs = model.make_ordered_set(inputs) + unknowns = model.make_ordered_set(unknowns) + targets = model.make_ordered_set(targets) + actual_outputs, unknowns_as_outputs = model.process_outputs(ss, unknowns, None) + + Js = model.partial_jacobians(ss, inputs | unknowns, + (actual_outputs | targets) - unknowns, + T, Js, options) + H_Z = model.jacobian(ss, inputs, targets, T, Js, options) + H_U = model.jacobian(ss, unknowns, targets, T, Js, options) + + missing = [t for t in targets if t not in H_Z.outputs] + if missing: + print(f" [H_Z zero-pad] no direct shock loading, rows restored as zero: {missing}") + H_Z = JacobianDict({t: H_Z.nesteddict.get(t, {}) for t in targets}, + outputs=targets, inputs=inputs, T=T) + + U_Z = JacobianDict.unpack( + -np.linalg.solve(H_U.pack(T), H_Z.pack(T)), unknowns, inputs, T) + return combine([U_Z, model]).jacobian( + ss, inputs, unknowns_as_outputs | actual_outputs, T, Js, options) + + def build_and_solve(ss_results): sys.setrecursionlimit(5000) @@ -119,23 +175,29 @@ def build_and_solve(ss_results): # ── Full dynamic model ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── ha_full = sj.create_model( build_block_list(financial_solved_D, financial_solved_F), - name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — GHH Preferences, Flex Price & Wage, No CB", + name="Full 2-Country MU HANK — GHH Preferences, Sticky Price, Flex Wage, No CB", ) - # ── 23×23 system ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + # ── 27×27 system ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + # +4 vs the flex model: mc and pi per country. mc is pinned by the price + # NKPC, pi jointly by the terms-of-trade identity and the union-inflation + # normalisation. No targets are renamed or removed -- labor_mkt_res_D/F is + # unchanged because wages stay flexible. unknowns_tp = [ 'K_D', 'n_inter_D', 'div_D', 'I_D', 'Q_D', 'b_gov_D', 'N_D', 'b_F_D', 'w_D', 'rdep_D', + 'mc_D', 'pi_D', 'K_F', 'n_inter_F', 'div_F', 'I_F', 'Q_F', 'b_gov_F', 'N_F', 'b_D_F', 'w_F', 'rdep_F', + 'mc_F', 'pi_F', 'p', 'q_b_D', 'q_b_F', ] targets_tp = [ 'deposit_mkt_D', 'K_res_D', 'n_inter_val_D', 'div_res_D', 'capital_res_D', 'q_res_D', 'b_gov_res_D', 'b_F_D_res', - 'labor_mkt_res_D', 'w_res_D', + 'labor_mkt_res_D', 'w_res_D', 'nkpc_p_res_D', 'deposit_mkt_F', 'K_res_F', 'n_inter_val_F', 'div_res_F', 'capital_res_F', 'q_res_F', 'b_gov_res_F', 'b_D_F_res', - 'labor_mkt_res_F', 'w_res_F', - 'goods_mkt_D', 'rb_D_res', 'rb_F_res', + 'labor_mkt_res_F', 'w_res_F', 'nkpc_p_res_F', + 'goods_mkt_D', 'rb_D_res', 'rb_F_res', 'tot_res', 'union_pi_res', ] T = 500 @@ -148,8 +210,8 @@ def build_and_solve(ss_results): # ── Jacobian ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── exogenous = ['Z_D', 'shock_def_D', 'Z_F', 'shock_def_F'] print(f"Computing Jacobian G (T={T}, {len(exogenous)} exogenous inputs)...") - G = ha_full.solve_jacobian(ss_final, unknowns=unknowns_tp, targets=targets_tp, - inputs=exogenous, T=T) + G = solve_jacobian_padded(ha_full, ss_final, unknowns=unknowns_tp, + targets=targets_tp, inputs=exogenous, T=T) print("G computed successfully.") # ── Shocks ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── diff --git a/code/tpi.py b/code/tpi.py index 1ab4019..b135144 100644 --- a/code/tpi.py +++ b/code/tpi.py @@ -174,8 +174,9 @@ def run_tpi(model_results): # ── Jacobian ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── exogenous_tpi = ['Z_D', 'shock_def_D', 'Z_F', 'shock_def_F', 'cb_buy_D'] print(f"Computing G_tpi (T={T}, {len(exogenous_tpi)} exogenous inputs)...") - G_tpi = ha_full_tpi.solve_jacobian( - ss_tpi, unknowns=unknowns_tp, targets=targets_tp, + from full_model import solve_jacobian_padded + G_tpi = solve_jacobian_padded( + ha_full_tpi, ss_tpi, unknowns=unknowns_tp, targets=targets_tp, inputs=exogenous_tpi, T=T, ) print("G_tpi computed.") diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 9cd83b0..5735d52 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -59,7 +59,32 @@ full calibration -> SS -> IC-delta -> depreciation-calibration chain diffed against the pre-change baseline — passed byte-for-byte. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` still 11/11 green. **Task 9 (wire the 27×27 dynamic system and run the - `kappa_p=1e4` flex-price equivalence gate) is next.** + flex-price equivalence gate) is COMPLETE and the gate PASSED.** + `full_model.build_block_list()` now carries `firm_profit_D/F`, + `price_nkpc_D/F`, `terms_of_trade`, `union_inflation`, and `build_and_solve` + solves 27×27 (`+mc_D, pi_D, mc_F, pi_F` / `+nkpc_p_res_D/F, tot_res, + union_pi_res`). The `kappa_p -> inf` limit reproduces the pre-change 23×23 + IRFs with **textbook O(1/kappa_p) convergence**: worst relative deviation + `2.925e-03` at `kappa_p=1e4`, **`2.925e-04` at 1e5** (threshold 1e-3, passed), + `2.925e-05` at 1e6 — every one of the 30 IRF series shrinks by exactly 10.00× + per decade and the SS levels are bit-identical. Full `code/main.py` at the + flex limit reproduces every monitored baseline number including both TPI + sanity checks at `0.00e+00`. Comparison harness: `code/dump_irfs.py`. + **Gotcha to know before touching anything that solves a Jacobian:** SSJ + 1.0.0's `Block.solve_jacobian` silently drops target rows with no *direct* + dependence on the shock list, and all four new targets are pure functions of + the solver's own unknowns — it returned a 23-row H_Z against a 27×27 H_U and + numpy raised a dimension mismatch. Use `full_model.solve_jacobian_padded()` + instead; it restores those rows as zeros (exact, since dH/dZ at fixed unknowns + is identically zero there) and otherwise mirrors SSJ line-for-line. + `code/full_model.py` and `code/tpi.py` are converted; + `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py`, `diagnostics/solve_configs.py`, + `experiments/e4_distribution.py` and the `substitution_v2`/`psilam_*` sweeps + are **not** — convert them before re-running any of those against the + sticky-price system (notably before rebuilding the regime cache). + **Task 10 (dial `kappa_p` to the calibrated 0.0871 and record the + price-stickiness result) is next** — the first run whose IRFs are *supposed* + to differ from the baseline. - Working branch: `main`. Production entry point: `code/main.py` (orchestrates `calibration.py`, `steady_state.py`, `ic_delta_calibration.py`, `depreciation_calibration.py`, `full_model.py`, `tpi.py`, `irf_plots.py`, diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index f079b63..f8a8d45 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,57 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-05 — 27×27 sticky-price dynamic system; passes the `kappa_p -> inf` equivalence gate (Task 9 of the nominal-rigidities plan) + +`full_model.build_block_list()` gains `firm_profit_D/F`, `price_nkpc_D/F` +(country groups, after `banker_div_res_D/F`) and `terms_of_trade`, +`union_inflation` (global group), and `build_and_solve`'s solver system goes +**23×23 → 27×27**: `+mc_D, pi_D, mc_F, pi_F` to `unknowns_tp` and +`+nkpc_p_res_D/F, tot_res, union_pi_res` to `targets_tp`. No existing unknown or +target is renamed or dropped — `labor_mkt_res_D/F` is untouched because wages +stay flexible. Model renamed to "… Sticky Price, Flex Wage, No CB". + +**Gate (the point of the task).** With `kappa_p -> inf` the NKPC residual forces +`mu_p*mc -> 1`, collapsing `labor_demand_D/F` to the competitive +`w = (1-alpha)Y/N`, so the 27×27 system must reproduce the pre-change 23×23 +IRFs. Baseline IRFs were dumped from `main` with the new `code/dump_irfs.py` +(15 series × 2 shocks + 4 SS levels) and compared. The deviation is +**exactly O(1/kappa_p)** — across `kappa_p = 1e4 / 1e5 / 1e6` *every one of the +30 IRF series* shrinks by a ratio of **10.00** per decade, and the 4 SS levels +are bit-identical (`0.000e+00`) at every `kappa_p`. Worst relative deviation: +`2.925e-03` at 1e4, **`2.925e-04` at 1e5** (gate threshold 1e-3, PASSED), +`2.925e-05` at 1e6. The binding series are `irfs_def_D__w_D` and +`irfs_def_D__N_D` — the two objects the markup wedge acts on directly, as +expected. A clean 1/kappa_p limit (rather than a stuck floor) is the evidence +that the blocks are wired correctly; 1e4 was simply not yet deep enough in. + +**SSJ defect found and fixed: `solve_jacobian` silently drops zero H_Z rows.** +`CombinedBlock._jacobian` returns `total_Js[original_outputs & total_Js.outputs, :]` +and only visits a block whose inputs intersect the shock list, so a target that +is a pure function of the solver's *own unknowns* never enters H_Z. All four new +targets are exactly that (`nkpc_p_res_D/F` in pi and mc; `tot_res` in p, pi_D, +pi_F; `union_pi_res` in pi_D, pi_F — no `Z_*`/`shock_def_*` symbol anywhere), so +SSJ 1.0.0 handed a 23-row H_Z to a 27×27 H_U and numpy raised a core-dimension +mismatch (`size 11500 is different from 13500`). New +`full_model.solve_jacobian_padded()` restores the missing rows as zeros — which +is **exact, not an approximation**: dH/dZ at fixed unknowns is identically zero +because the shock symbols do not appear in those equations. It otherwise +reproduces `Block.solve_jacobian` line-for-line. `code/tpi.py` calls it too +(same 27×27 system, same four rows). It prints the padded row names on every +solve, so the padding can never become silent. + +**Full-pipeline regression at the flex limit** (`code/main.py`, `kappa_p=1e5`): +`goods_mkt_D = -4.2493506589857954e-07`, `goods_mkt_F = -4.1914559989475464e-07`, +`ca_res_D = 6.852157730108388e-17`, `All residuals < 1e-8 ✓`, +`irfs_def_D['b_gov_D'][499] = 0.000014`, `ρ_b = 0.8451`, +`n_inter_D[0] = -3.3804%` of SS, `Y_D[0] = -0.0149%` of SS (both negative — +doom-loop sign correct), TPI `max|ca_res_D| ≤ 7.55e-08`, +`max|goods_mkt_F| ≤ 2.44e-09`, and both TPI sanity checks +(`G_tpi[cb=0]` vs baseline G, and `gamma=0` vs `irfs_def_D`) at +**exactly `0.00e+00`**. Every one of these reproduces the pre-change baseline. +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: still 11 passed, 0 failed. Next: Task 10, dial +`kappa_p` down to the calibrated 0.0871 and record the price-stickiness result. + ## 2026-08-05 — Seed `mc`, `pi`, `profit` and the global residuals into the steady state (Task 8 of the nominal-rigidities plan) `code/steady_state.py`'s import lists (`equations_D`, `equations_F`, diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 4014538..615e679 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -2,7 +2,70 @@ **Branch:** `eba-recalibration` | **Date:** 2026-07-31 | **Status:** **EBA calibration rebuilt, identified, and LIVE** (`EBA_CALIBRATION=True`, `BANK_SCOPE="broad"`). Y-1 and RK-1 resolved; spread on target at 150.4bp; TPI loading declining. -## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 8 — blocks seeded into the steady state +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 9 — 27×27 sticky-price system LIVE, flex-price equivalence gate PASSED + +The dynamic model is now sticky-price. `full_model.build_block_list()` carries +`firm_profit_D/F`, `price_nkpc_D/F`, `terms_of_trade`, `union_inflation`, and +`build_and_solve` solves **27×27** (was 23×23): `mc_D, pi_D, mc_F, pi_F` added to +`unknowns_tp`; `nkpc_p_res_D/F, tot_res, union_pi_res` added to `targets_tp`. +Nothing existing was renamed or dropped; `labor_mkt_res_D/F` is unchanged because +wages stay flexible. + +**Equivalence gate result (a real number, quote it).** As `kappa_p -> inf` the +NKPC forces `mu_p*mc -> 1` and labour demand collapses to competitive, so the +27×27 system must reproduce the pre-change 23×23 IRFs. It does, with **textbook +O(1/kappa_p) convergence**: + +| `kappa_p` | worst relative IRF deviation vs pre-change baseline | +|---|---| +| 1e4 | `2.925e-03` | +| **1e5** | **`2.925e-04`** ← gate threshold 1e-3, **PASSED** | +| 1e6 | `2.925e-05` | + +Every one of the 30 IRF series shrinks by a ratio of **exactly 10.00 per decade +of `kappa_p`**, and the 4 SS levels are bit-identical (`0.000e+00`) at every +`kappa_p`. This is a *limit*, not an identity — a finite `kappa_p` cannot match +to machine precision, and the clean 1/kappa_p rate (rather than a stuck floor) is +the evidence that the blocks are wired correctly. The binding series are +`irfs_def_D__w_D` (2.925e-04 at 1e5) and `irfs_def_D__N_D` (1.018e-04) — the two +objects the markup wedge acts on directly. Comparison harness: +`code/dump_irfs.py`. + +**Open item carried into Task 10 — `full_model.solve_jacobian_padded()`.** SSJ +1.0.0's `Block.solve_jacobian` cannot solve this system as-is. +`CombinedBlock._jacobian` ends with +`total_Js[original_outputs & total_Js.outputs, :]` and only visits a block whose +inputs intersect the shock list, so a target that is a pure function of the +solver's *own unknowns* never enters H_Z. All four new targets are exactly that +(no `Z_*`/`shock_def_*` symbol appears anywhere in them), so SSJ returned a +23-row H_Z against a 27×27 H_U and numpy raised +`size 11500 is different from 13500`. The new helper restores those rows as +zeros — **exact, not an approximation**, since dH/dZ at fixed unknowns is +identically zero when the shock does not appear in the equation — and otherwise +reproduces `Block.solve_jacobian` line-for-line. `code/tpi.py` routes through it +too. It prints the padded row names on every solve so the padding can never go +silent. **Anything else that calls `solve_jacobian` with this 27×27 system will +hit the same wall**: `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py`, +`diagnostics/solve_configs.py`, `experiments/e4_distribution.py` and the +`diagnostics/substitution_v2/*` and `psilam_*` sweeps are all still on the raw +SSJ call. They are untouched and unbroken *only because they have not been +re-run against the sticky-price system yet* — switch them to +`solve_jacobian_padded` before rebuilding the regime cache. + +**Full-pipeline regression at the flex limit** (`code/main.py`, `kappa_p=1e5`) +reproduces the pre-change baseline on every monitored number: +`goods_mkt_D=-4.2493506589857954e-07`, `goods_mkt_F=-4.1914559989475464e-07`, +`ca_res_D=6.852157730108388e-17`, `All residuals < 1e-8 ✓`, +`b_gov_D[499]=0.000014`, `ρ_b=0.8451`, `n_inter_D[0]=-3.3804%` of SS, +`Y_D[0]=-0.0149%` of SS (both negative), TPI `max|ca_res_D| ≤ 7.55e-08`, +`max|goods_mkt_F| ≤ 2.44e-09`, both TPI sanity checks exactly `0.00e+00`. +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 11 passed, 0 failed. + +**Next: Task 10** — dial `kappa_p` to the calibrated `0.0871` and record the +price-stickiness result. That is the first run whose IRFs are *supposed* to +differ from the baseline. + +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 8 — blocks seeded into the steady state `code/steady_state.py`'s `create_model([...])` list (inside `solve_steady_state`) gains `firm_profit_D/F`, `price_nkpc_D/F`, `terms_of_trade`, `union_inflation` — From f691864a29fface10cf51863921893a964488b4a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 20:36:57 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 18/42] Plan: record the SSJ H_Z defect, add Task 9b, correct the gate kappa Task 9 hit a real SSJ 1.0.0 defect. CombinedBlock._jacobian seeds total_Js from the shock list and returns total_Js[original_outputs & total_Js.outputs, :], so a target reachable from no shock is silently dropped from H_Z; solve_jacobian then hands mismatched shapes to np.linalg.solve. All four new targets are pure functions of the solver's own unknowns, so H_Z came back with 23 rows against a 27x27 H_U. Fixed by full_model.solve_jacobian_padded(), which restores the rows as zeros -- exact, since dH/dZ at fixed unknowns is identically zero when the shock never appears in the equation. Records why the proposed 25x25 rewrite does NOT avoid this: nkpc_p_res would still depend only on unknowns, so it would still be dropped, giving 23 rows against 25x25. Same defect, at the cost of rewriting committed work. Adds Task 9b to convert the seven remaining call sites. regime_model.py blocks the E1-E4 cache rebuild and e4_distribution.py blocks E4, so this is not optional cleanup. Gate kappa corrected to 1e5: at 1e4 the worst deviation was 2.925e-03. The deviation falls exactly 10x per decade with an identical 2.925 mantissa at 1e4, 1e5 and 1e6 -- a clean O(1/kappa_p) limit, which is the convergent-limit diagnostic the gate was designed to test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- .../plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md | 102 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 102 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md b/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md index d7f076e..6b6ae05 100644 --- a/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md +++ b/docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md @@ -302,6 +302,44 @@ No-op. Verified main.py output is byte-identical before and after." --- +## SSJ library defect found in Task 9 — read before touching any Jacobian solve + +**SSJ 1.0.0 cannot solve this system with stock `Block.solve_jacobian`.** + +`CombinedBlock._jacobian` (`blocks/combined_block.py:104-119`) seeds +`total_Js = JacobianDict.identity(inputs)` from the *shock* list, visits a block +only `if (inputs & block.inputs) and (outputs & block.outputs)`, and returns +`total_Js[original_outputs & total_Js.outputs, :]`. A target reachable from no +shock is therefore silently dropped from H_Z. `Block.solve_jacobian` +(`blocks/block.py:260`) then calls `np.linalg.solve(H_U, H_Z.pack(T))` with +mismatched shapes: + +``` +ValueError: solve: Input operand 1 has a mismatch in its core dimension 0, +with gufunc signature (m,m),(m,n)->(m,n) (size 11500 is different from 13500) +``` + +`11500 = 23*500`, `13500 = 27*500`. All four new targets are pure functions of +the solver's own unknowns — `nkpc_p_res_D/F` (pi, mc), `tot_res` (p, pi_D, pi_F), +`union_pi_res` (pi_D, pi_F) — and contain no `Z_*` or `shock_def_*` symbol. + +**Fix: `full_model.solve_jacobian_padded()`**, added in Task 9. It restores the +missing rows as zeros, which is **exact, not an approximation**: `dH/dZ` at fixed +unknowns is identically zero when the shock never appears in the equation. It +mirrors `Block.solve_jacobian` line-for-line and prints the padded row names on +every solve, so it cannot go silent. + +**A 25x25 rewrite does NOT avoid this — do not attempt it.** Solving `tot_res` +and `union_pi_res` analytically for `pi_D`, `pi_F` (which has an exact closed +form, `pi_D = (1-g)/(g + omega/(1-omega))` with `g = p/p(-1)`) would make them +block outputs and drop the system to 25x25. But `nkpc_p_res_D` would still depend +only on `pi_D` — now a function of `p`, still an unknown — and `mc_D`, another +unknown. The gate at `combined_block.py:115` tests against the *shock* set, so +the two NKPC targets would still be dropped, giving 23 H_Z rows against a 25x25 +H_U. Same defect, smaller numbers, at the cost of rewriting committed work. + +**Every Jacobian call site must use the padded helper.** Task 9b converts them. + ## Phase 1 — Price rigidity (deposits still real) ### Task 2: Markup rent — `firm_profit_{D,F}` @@ -1206,6 +1244,70 @@ git commit -m "feat: 27x27 sticky-price system; passes the kappa_p -> inf equiva --- +### Task 9b: Convert every Jacobian call site to the padded solver + +Task 9 converted `full_model.py` and `tpi.py`. **Seven call sites still use stock +`solve_jacobian` and will die with the core-dimension mismatch the moment they +see the sticky-price system.** They are not broken yet only because they have not +been re-run. + +Two of them block later tasks outright: +- `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py:177` — Task 15's cache rebuild, and hence + **all of E1–E4**, runs off this. +- `experiments/e4_distribution.py:255` — E4's quintile incidence. + +The rest are diagnostics off the plan's critical path but must not be left as +landmines: `diagnostics/solve_configs.py:176`, +`diagnostics/psilam_moment_sweep.py:76`, +`diagnostics/psilam_breakdown_sweep.py:83`, +`diagnostics/substitution_v2/solve_v2.py:106`, +`diagnostics/substitution_v2/exp_psilam0.py:64`. + +- [ ] **Step 1: Convert each call site** + +In each file, replace `.solve_jacobian(ss, unknowns=..., targets=..., +inputs=..., T=...)` with: + +```python +from full_model import solve_jacobian_padded +G = solve_jacobian_padded(, ss, , , , T) +``` + +Preserve each site's own variable names and any extra keyword arguments it +passes. Note `solve_jacobian_padded` takes `unknowns`, `targets`, `inputs`, `T` +positionally after `model` and `ss`. + +- [ ] **Step 2: Verify none remain** + +```bash +grep -rn "\.solve_jacobian(" --include="*.py" code experiments diagnostics \ + | grep -v solve_jacobian_padded +``` + +Expected: **no output**. + +- [ ] **Step 3: Smoke-test the two on the critical path** + +```bash +/opt/anaconda3/envs/ssj/bin/python -c " +import sys +sys.path.insert(0,'code'); sys.path.insert(0,'diagnostics/regimes'); sys.path.insert(0,'experiments') +import regime_model, e4_distribution +print('regime_model and e4_distribution import cleanly') +" +``` + +- [ ] **Step 4: Commit** (all three docs staged, as always) + +```bash +git add code experiments diagnostics docs/STATE.md docs/PROGRESS.md docs/HANDOFF.md +git commit -m "fix: route every Jacobian call site through solve_jacobian_padded + +SSJ 1.0.0 drops H_Z rows for targets reachable from no shock. Seven call sites +would have hit the core-dimension mismatch on first contact with the 27x27 +system; regime_model.py blocks the E1-E4 cache rebuild." +``` + ### Task 10: Dial `kappa_p` to 0.0871 and record the price-stickiness result This is the clean measure of what price stickiness alone does, with deposits still From e927a7d1a0a3b0c485390751ae1e2bb3b8922a10 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Thu, 6 Aug 2026 09:53:13 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 19/42] fix: route every Jacobian call site through solve_jacobian_padded SSJ 1.0.0 drops H_Z rows for targets reachable from no shock. Seven call sites would have hit the core-dimension mismatch on first contact with the 27x27 system; regime_model.py blocks the E1-E4 cache rebuild. --- diagnostics/psilam_breakdown_sweep.py | 6 ++--- diagnostics/psilam_moment_sweep.py | 6 ++--- diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py | 5 ++-- diagnostics/solve_configs.py | 6 ++--- diagnostics/substitution_v2/exp_psilam0.py | 6 ++--- diagnostics/substitution_v2/solve_v2.py | 4 ++-- docs/HANDOFF.md | 18 ++++++++++++++ docs/PROGRESS.md | 28 ++++++++++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 27 +++++++++++++++------ experiments/e4_distribution.py | 10 ++++---- 10 files changed, 88 insertions(+), 28 deletions(-) diff --git a/diagnostics/psilam_breakdown_sweep.py b/diagnostics/psilam_breakdown_sweep.py index a326a85..6911870 100644 --- a/diagnostics/psilam_breakdown_sweep.py +++ b/diagnostics/psilam_breakdown_sweep.py @@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ def main(): from steady_state import solve_steady_state from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation - from full_model import build_and_solve + from full_model import build_and_solve, solve_jacobian_padded cal = get_calibration() print(f"[{ts()}] live psi_lambda_B_D = {cal['psi_lambda_B_D']}, " @@ -80,8 +80,8 @@ def psi_spread(country, g): for c in ("D", "F"): ssg.toplevel[f"psi_lambda_B_{c}"] = g ssg.toplevel[f"psi_spread_{c}"] = psi_spread(c, g) - Gg = ha.solve_jacobian(ssg, unknowns=unk, targets=tgt, - inputs=["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F"], T=T) + Gg = solve_jacobian_padded(ha, ssg, unk, tgt, + ["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F"], T) irf = Gg @ {"Z_D": zero, "Z_F": zero, "shock_def_D": dshock, "shock_def_F": zero} sp = np.asarray(irf["spread_rb"]) r = dict(psilam=g, diff --git a/diagnostics/psilam_moment_sweep.py b/diagnostics/psilam_moment_sweep.py index 7686691..d12b557 100644 --- a/diagnostics/psilam_moment_sweep.py +++ b/diagnostics/psilam_moment_sweep.py @@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ def main(): from steady_state import solve_steady_state from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation - from full_model import build_and_solve + from full_model import build_and_solve, solve_jacobian_padded print(f"[{ts()}] pipeline: calibration -> SS -> ic_delta -> depreciation") cal = get_calibration() @@ -73,8 +73,8 @@ def main(): ssg.toplevel["psi_spread_D"] = psi_spread_base * g / psilam_base ssg.toplevel["psi_spread_F"] = psi_spread_base * g / psilam_base # EL_price_D/F untouched (anchored) - Gg = ha.solve_jacobian(ssg, unknowns=unk, targets=tgt, - inputs=["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F"], T=T) + Gg = solve_jacobian_padded(ha, ssg, unk, tgt, + ["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F"], T) irf = Gg @ {"Z_D": zero, "Z_F": zero, "shock_def_D": dshock, "shock_def_F": zero} sp = np.asarray(irf["spread_rb"])[:100] nD = np.asarray(irf["n_inter_D"])[:100] diff --git a/diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py b/diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py index 5ca7951..d742e56 100644 --- a/diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py +++ b/diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py @@ -174,8 +174,9 @@ def _ss_tpi(ss_final, kappa_cb_F): def _solve_G(model, ss_tpi, unk, tgt, T, label): log(f"- {datetime.datetime.now():%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S} solving G_tpi at psi_lambda_B={label} ...") - return model.solve_jacobian(ss_tpi, unknowns=unk, targets=tgt, - inputs=["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F", "cb_buy_D"], T=T) + from full_model import solve_jacobian_padded + return solve_jacobian_padded(model, ss_tpi, unk, tgt, + ["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F", "cb_buy_D"], T) def _col(G, o, i, T): diff --git a/diagnostics/solve_configs.py b/diagnostics/solve_configs.py index 1620a5a..6b2e0ab 100644 --- a/diagnostics/solve_configs.py +++ b/diagnostics/solve_configs.py @@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ def main(): from steady_state import solve_steady_state from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation - from full_model import build_and_solve + from full_model import build_and_solve, solve_jacobian_padded # ---- Steps 1-4: calibration -> SS -> ic_delta -> depreciation (once) ---- logts("Step 1: get_calibration()") @@ -173,8 +173,8 @@ def main(): ["psi_lambda_B_D", "psi_lambda_B_F", "psi_spread_D", "psi_spread_F"])) exogenous = ["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F"] - G0 = ha_full.solve_jacobian( - ss0, unknowns=unknowns_tp, targets=targets_tp, inputs=exogenous, T=T) + G0 = solve_jacobian_padded( + ha_full, ss0, unknowns_tp, targets_tp, exogenous, T) logts("G0 computed.") zero = np.zeros(T) diff --git a/diagnostics/substitution_v2/exp_psilam0.py b/diagnostics/substitution_v2/exp_psilam0.py index c397e42..e2107d9 100644 --- a/diagnostics/substitution_v2/exp_psilam0.py +++ b/diagnostics/substitution_v2/exp_psilam0.py @@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ def main(): from steady_state import solve_steady_state from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation - from full_model import build_and_solve + from full_model import build_and_solve, solve_jacobian_padded log(f"\n## Experiment — output response at psi_lambda_B = 0 (EL_price ON) — {ts()}") cal = get_calibration() @@ -61,8 +61,8 @@ def main(): ss0.toplevel["psi_spread_D"] = 0.0; ss0.toplevel["psi_spread_F"] = 0.0 # EL_price stays anchored (~0.1025) log(f"- {ts()} solving psi_lambda_B=0, psi_spread=0, EL_price={float(ss0['EL_price_D']):.6f}") - G = ha.solve_jacobian(ss0, unknowns=unk, targets=tgt, - inputs=["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F"], T=T) + G = solve_jacobian_padded(ha, ss0, unk, tgt, + ["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F"], T) d = irf_to_dict(G @ {"Z_D": np.zeros(T), "Z_F": np.zeros(T), "shock_def_D": dshock, "shock_def_F": np.zeros(T)}) np.savez(os.path.join(HERE, "irfs_psilam0_full.npz"), **d) diff --git a/diagnostics/substitution_v2/solve_v2.py b/diagnostics/substitution_v2/solve_v2.py index 3c8e6c8..4da0b82 100644 --- a/diagnostics/substitution_v2/solve_v2.py +++ b/diagnostics/substitution_v2/solve_v2.py @@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ def main(): from steady_state import solve_steady_state from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation - from full_model import build_and_solve + from full_model import build_and_solve, solve_jacobian_padded log(f"\n## Step 0 — solve — {ts()}") cal = get_calibration() @@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ def solve(el_price, tag): ssg.toplevel["EL_price_F"] = el_price log(f"- {ts()} solving [{tag}] psi_lambda_B={PSILAM}, psi_spread={psi_spread_28:.6f}, " f"EL_price={el_price:.6f}") - G = ha.solve_jacobian(ssg, unknowns=unk, targets=tgt, inputs=inputs, T=T) + G = solve_jacobian_padded(ha, ssg, unk, tgt, inputs, T) irf = G @ {"Z_D": zero, "Z_F": zero, "shock_def_D": dshock, "shock_def_F": zero} d = irf_to_dict(irf) np.savez(os.path.join(HERE, f"irfs_2p8_{tag}.npz"), **d) diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 5735d52..c8166b1 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -82,6 +82,24 @@ `experiments/e4_distribution.py` and the `substitution_v2`/`psilam_*` sweeps are **not** — convert them before re-running any of those against the sticky-price system (notably before rebuilding the regime cache). + **Task 9b (convert the remaining seven `Block.solve_jacobian` call sites to + `solve_jacobian_padded`) is COMPLETE.** All seven — + `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py:177`, `experiments/e4_distribution.py:255`, + `diagnostics/solve_configs.py:176`, `diagnostics/psilam_moment_sweep.py:76`, + `diagnostics/psilam_breakdown_sweep.py:83`, + `diagnostics/substitution_v2/solve_v2.py:106`, + `diagnostics/substitution_v2/exp_psilam0.py:64` — now route through + `full_model.solve_jacobian_padded`, imported locally inside each function + alongside its existing `from full_model import build_and_solve`, matching + each file's own local-import convention. No call site passed an argument + `solve_jacobian_padded` doesn't accept (no `outputs=`/`H_U_factored=` + anywhere), so no special-casing was needed. `grep -rn "\.solve_jacobian(" + --include="*.py" code experiments diagnostics | grep -v solve_jacobian_padded` + is now empty. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` still 11/11 green (unaffected — + these are Jacobian call sites, not block definitions). The regime cache + itself has **not** been rebuilt yet (that's a `--force` run of + `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py`, left for whoever next needs fresh E1-E4 + numbers off the 27×27 system). **Task 10 (dial `kappa_p` to the calibrated 0.0871 and record the price-stickiness result) is next** — the first run whose IRFs are *supposed* to differ from the baseline. diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index f8a8d45..0c173bf 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,34 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-06 — Task 9b: convert all remaining Jacobian call sites to `solve_jacobian_padded` + +Task 9 (previous entry) found and fixed the SSJ 1.0.0 defect where +`CombinedBlock._jacobian` drops H_Z rows for targets reachable from no shock — +`nkpc_p_res_D/F`, `tot_res`, `union_pi_res` contain no `Z_*`/`shock_def_*` +symbol, so raw `Block.solve_jacobian` returns a 23-row H_Z against the 27×27 +system's H_U and `np.linalg.solve` dies with a core-dimension mismatch +(`size 11500 is different from 13500`). `full_model.py` and `tpi.py` were +converted at the time; seven other call sites were left as known landmines. +All seven are now converted to `full_model.solve_jacobian_padded`: +`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py:177`, `experiments/e4_distribution.py:255`, +`diagnostics/solve_configs.py:176`, `diagnostics/psilam_moment_sweep.py:76`, +`diagnostics/psilam_breakdown_sweep.py:83`, +`diagnostics/substitution_v2/solve_v2.py:106`, +`diagnostics/substitution_v2/exp_psilam0.py:64`. Each import is added locally +inside the enclosing function, alongside that function's existing +`from full_model import build_and_solve`, matching the file's own convention. +No call site passed an argument `solve_jacobian_padded` doesn't accept. +`grep -rn "\.solve_jacobian(" --include="*.py" code experiments diagnostics | +grep -v solve_jacobian_padded` is now empty — no remaining raw SSJ call +anywhere in the repo. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` still 11/11 (these are +Jacobian call sites, not block definitions, so the tests were never expected +to move). This unblocks `experiments/run_all.py`'s E1-E4 regeneration, which +runs off `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py`'s cached Jacobians; the cache +itself has not yet been rebuilt against the 27×27 system. + +--- + ## 2026-08-05 — 27×27 sticky-price dynamic system; passes the `kappa_p -> inf` equivalence gate (Task 9 of the nominal-rigidities plan) `full_model.build_block_list()` gains `firm_profit_D/F`, `price_nkpc_D/F` diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 615e679..99172fa 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -44,13 +44,26 @@ zeros — **exact, not an approximation**, since dH/dZ at fixed unknowns is identically zero when the shock does not appear in the equation — and otherwise reproduces `Block.solve_jacobian` line-for-line. `code/tpi.py` routes through it too. It prints the padded row names on every solve so the padding can never go -silent. **Anything else that calls `solve_jacobian` with this 27×27 system will -hit the same wall**: `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py`, -`diagnostics/solve_configs.py`, `experiments/e4_distribution.py` and the -`diagnostics/substitution_v2/*` and `psilam_*` sweeps are all still on the raw -SSJ call. They are untouched and unbroken *only because they have not been -re-run against the sticky-price system yet* — switch them to -`solve_jacobian_padded` before rebuilding the regime cache. +silent. + +**Task 9b (2026-08-06) — every Jacobian call site now routes through it.** +The seven remaining raw `Block.solve_jacobian` calls +(`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py:177`, `experiments/e4_distribution.py:255`, +`diagnostics/solve_configs.py:176`, `diagnostics/psilam_moment_sweep.py:76`, +`diagnostics/psilam_breakdown_sweep.py:83`, +`diagnostics/substitution_v2/solve_v2.py:106`, +`diagnostics/substitution_v2/exp_psilam0.py:64`) were converted to +`full_model.solve_jacobian_padded`, imported locally per-function (matching +each file's existing local-import style). `grep -rn "\.solve_jacobian(" +--include="*.py" code experiments diagnostics | grep -v solve_jacobian_padded` +now returns nothing — no call site in the repo can hit the 23-vs-27 H_Z/H_U +shape mismatch (`size 11500 is different from 13500`) any more. +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` unaffected, still 11/11. The two call sites on the +critical path for `experiments/run_all.py` — `regime_model.py` (the E1-E4 +Jacobian cache) and `e4_distribution.py` (quintile incidence) — are now safe to +re-run against the sticky-price system; the regime cache itself has not yet +been rebuilt (`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`), that's for +whoever next needs fresh E1-E4 numbers. **Full-pipeline regression at the flex limit** (`code/main.py`, `kappa_p=1e5`) reproduces the pre-change baseline on every monitored number: diff --git a/experiments/e4_distribution.py b/experiments/e4_distribution.py index 5de6b72..79bb714 100644 --- a/experiments/e4_distribution.py +++ b/experiments/e4_distribution.py @@ -191,7 +191,7 @@ def build(): import tpi from calibration import get_calibration from depreciation_calibration import calibrate_depreciation - from full_model import build_and_solve + from full_model import build_and_solve, solve_jacobian_padded from ic_delta_calibration import calibrate_ic_delta from regime_model import _ss_tpi, build_tpi_model_main from steady_state import solve_steady_state @@ -252,10 +252,10 @@ def build(): T = res["T"] print(f"Solving Jacobian with {len(DECILE_AGG_D)} extra decile outputs (T={T}) ...", flush=True) - G = model.solve_jacobian(ss_tpi, unknowns=res["unknowns_tp"], - targets=res["targets_tp"], - inputs=["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F", - "cb_buy_D"], T=T) + G = solve_jacobian_padded(model, ss_tpi, res["unknowns_tp"], + res["targets_tp"], + ["Z_D", "shock_def_D", "Z_F", "shock_def_F", + "cb_buy_D"], T) out = {"T": np.array(T), "dShock_def_D": np.asarray(res["dShock_def_D"]), "decile_mass_ss": realised, "decile_c_ss": c_bin, "dep_edges": dep_edges, From 57b9bd46fa96013fbddf95b3632ff30094730a4f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Thu, 6 Aug 2026 10:06:39 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 20/42] Task 10: price stickiness alone flips C_D[0]; record numbers and caveat At the calibrated kappa_p = 0.0871 with deposits still real: Y_D[0] -0.0149% -> -0.4923% (33x) C_D[0] +0.2164% -> -0.4904% SIGN FLIP I_D[0] -0.7718% -> -0.9907% n_inter_D[0] -3.3804% -> -4.0140% Steady state byte-identical; both impact signs negative; all four TPI gammas inside 1e-7. The flex column reproduces STATE.md's own E1 passive row to every printed digit, which is the check that the SS divisors are right. Y_D[0] is now in range of Bi-Foerster-Traum's -0.6% without their loan-in-advance constraint; the pre-change model was two orders of magnitude below it. Caveat recorded prominently: this is a ONE-QUARTER SPIKE, not a downturn. Output and consumption are both positive from quarter 1, and flex consumption is more persistently negative from quarter 2 on. The claim is that sticky prices fix the impact quarter, not that they resolve the investment-bust counterfactual. kappa_p sweep {0.03, 0.0871, 0.2} is monotone and stable throughout, so the sign flip is not knife-edge -- C_D[0] is negative across the whole sticky range. Also fixes dump_irfs.py to store SS levels for every series with an assertion. I_D had no ss__ entry, so a consumer fell back to a divisor of 1.0 and reported a level deviation as a percentage -- the mislabelling class CLAUDE.md records for n_inter and K. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- code/dump_irfs.py | 21 +++++++++++++--- docs/HANDOFF.md | 25 +++++++++++++++++++ docs/PROGRESS.md | 17 +++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 63 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 123 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/dump_irfs.py b/code/dump_irfs.py index 8f20d0a..aefd25f 100644 --- a/code/dump_irfs.py +++ b/code/dump_irfs.py @@ -29,10 +29,25 @@ def main(out_path): for k in KEYS: if k in m[tag]: payload[f'{tag}__{k}'] = np.asarray(m[tag][k]) - for k in ('Y_D', 'C_D', 'n_inter_D', 'K_D'): - payload[f'ss__{k}'] = np.asarray(float(m['ss_final'][k])) + # Store the SS level for EVERY dumped series. A missing ss__ entry tempts a + # consumer into a divisor of 1.0, which silently reports a level deviation + # as a percentage -- exactly the mislabelling CLAUDE.md records (n_inter_ss + # = 2.138 and K_ss = 10.8 are not ~1, and a past bug mislabelled those by + # 2.1x and 10x). I_D in particular has no SS entry in ss_final and must be + # reconstructed as delta*K. + ss = m['ss_final'] + for k in KEYS: + if k in ('I_D', 'I_F'): + suf = k[-1] + payload[f'ss__{k}'] = np.asarray( + float(ss[f'delta_{suf}']) * float(ss[f'K_{suf}'])) + else: + payload[f'ss__{k}'] = np.asarray(float(ss[k])) + missing = [k for k in KEYS if f'ss__{k}' not in payload] + assert not missing, f'no SS level stored for: {missing}' np.savez(out_path, **payload) - print(f'wrote {out_path} with {len(payload)} arrays') + print(f'wrote {out_path} with {len(payload)} arrays ' + f'({len(KEYS)} series, all with SS levels)') if __name__ == '__main__': diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index c8166b1..71f6c60 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -390,6 +390,31 @@ consequential for the paper right now: | `code/tpi_plots.py`, `code/irf_plots.py` | Figure-generation scripts (regenerate from `main`) | | Overleaf | https://www.overleaf.com/project/698b4f88aeef1d0e1d08cc0c | +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 10 done, Task 11 next + +**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–10 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price +(27×27) with deposits still **real**. Price stickiness alone flips `C_D[0]` from ++0.2164% to −0.4904% and takes `Y_D[0]` from −0.0149% to −0.4923% — see +`docs/STATE.md` for the full table, the `kappa_p` sweep, and the one-quarter-spike +caveat that must not be dropped from the write-up. + +**Next: Task 11** — `deposit_rates_D/F` and nominal `deposit_return_D/F`, per +`docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`. `rdep` keeps its name +as the derived ex-ante real rate; `i_dep` becomes the nominal unknown; +`rdep_expost` is new. That refinement means `intermediation_P1`, `divert_bond_foc` +and `divert_portfolio_adj` need no changes at all. + +**Two things not to rediscover the hard way.** + +1. SSJ 1.0.0 drops H_Z rows for targets reachable from no shock, so stock + `Block.solve_jacobian` cannot solve this system. Everything routes through + `full_model.solve_jacobian_padded()`. All call sites were converted in Task 9b; + `grep -rn "\.solve_jacobian(" --include="*.py" code experiments diagnostics` + must stay empty. +2. The regime cache has **not** been rebuilt against the 27×27 system. Task 15 + does that (`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`), and E1–E4 numbers + are stale until it runs. + ## Run environment ``` diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index 0c173bf..067f827 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,23 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-06 — Task 10: price-stickiness-only measurement (`add-nkpc`) + +- Ran the full pipeline at the calibrated `kappa_p = 0.0871` with deposits still + real, isolating what price stickiness alone does. SS byte-identical; both + impact signs negative; all TPI gammas inside 1e-7. +- **`C_D[0]` flips sign: +0.2164% -> −0.4904%.** `Y_D[0]` goes −0.0149% -> + −0.4923% (33x), now in range of Bi-Foerster-Traum's −0.6% without their + loan-in-advance constraint. +- Caveat recorded in STATE.md: the response is a **one-quarter spike**, positive + from quarter 1, not a sustained downturn. +- `kappa_p` sweep {0.03, 0.0871, 0.2} monotone and stable; the sign flip holds + across the whole sticky range. +- Fixed `code/dump_irfs.py` to store SS levels for every dumped series with an + assertion. `I_D` had no `ss__` entry, so a consumer fell back to a divisor of + 1.0 and reported a level deviation as a percentage — the mislabelling class + CLAUDE.md already records for `n_inter` and `K`. + ## 2026-08-06 — Task 9b: convert all remaining Jacobian call sites to `solve_jacobian_padded` Task 9 (previous entry) found and fixed the SSJ 1.0.0 defect where diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 99172fa..dd6e947 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -2,6 +2,69 @@ **Branch:** `eba-recalibration` | **Date:** 2026-07-31 | **Status:** **EBA calibration rebuilt, identified, and LIVE** (`EBA_CALIBRATION=True`, `BANK_SCOPE="broad"`). Y-1 and RK-1 resolved; spread on target at 150.4bp; TPI loading declining. +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 10 — price-stickiness-only result at the calibrated slope + +Deposits are still **real** here; this isolates what price stickiness alone does. +`kappa_p = 0.0871` (Calvo theta=0.75 at beta=0.985). Steady state byte-identical +to pre-change (`goods_mkt_D = -4.2493506589857954e-07`, `IC_D = 1.776357e-15`, +`rho_b = 0.8451` all unchanged); both impact signs negative; all four TPI gammas +inside 1e-7. + +### Impact responses to the 1pp default shock (% of own SS level) + +| | flex (pre-change) | sticky `kappa_p=0.0871` | change | +|---|---|---|---| +| `Y_D[0]` | −0.0149 | **−0.4923** | 33x larger | +| `C_D[0]` | **+0.2164** | **−0.4904** | **SIGN FLIP** | +| `I_D[0]` | −0.7718 | −0.9907 | 1.28x | +| `n_inter_D[0]` | −3.3804 | −4.0140 | 1.19x | + +The flex column reproduces this file's own E1 passive row to every printed digit, +which is the check that the SS divisors are right. + +**`C_D[0]` DOES change sign.** The spec warned it might not, and that Bi-Foerster-Traum +get consumption rising on impact even with a Taylor rule and nominal debt. Here +price stickiness alone flips it. + +**But read the path before claiming the consumption-bust problem is solved.** + +``` +Y_D sticky: -0.4923 +0.0083 +0.1006 +0.0881 +0.0580 +0.0329 +0.0161 +0.0063 +C_D sticky: -0.4904 +0.1141 +0.1553 +0.0790 +0.0046 -0.0440 -0.0685 -0.0761 +C_D flex: +0.2164 +0.0702 -0.0161 -0.0624 -0.0829 -0.0873 -0.0822 -0.0721 +``` + +This is a **one-quarter spike, not a downturn**: output and consumption are both +positive from quarter 1. Bi-Foerster-Traum's output falls 0.6% and stays negative +for ~20 quarters. Flex consumption is in fact *more* persistently negative from +quarter 2 on. So the honest claim is: sticky prices fix the **impact quarter** +and arguably worsen the medium-run path. Do not write "resolves the investment-bust +counterfactual" without this qualification. + +**The extra output decline is not an investment story.** `I_D` moved 1.28x while +`Y_D` moved 33x — it is the markup wedge shifting labour demand directly, which is +the mechanism the design intended. + +### `kappa_p` sweep — monotone and stable throughout + +| `kappa_p` | `Y_D[0]` | `C_D[0]` | `I_D[0]` | `n_inter_D[0]` | `b_gov_D[499]` | +|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| 0.03 (stickier) | −0.7280 | −0.8401 | −1.0987 | −4.3244 | 1.50e−05 | +| **0.0871** (calibrated) | **−0.4923** | **−0.4904** | **−0.9907** | **−4.0140** | 1.4e−05 | +| 0.2 (more flexible) | −0.3105 | −0.2211 | −0.9077 | −3.7736 | 1.42e−05 | +| flex limit | −0.0149 | +0.2164 | −0.7718 | −3.3804 | 1.4e−05 | + +Every point stable (`b_gov_D[499]` ~1.5e−05) and monotone in `kappa_p`. **The +consumption sign flip is not knife-edge** — `C_D[0]` is negative across the whole +sticky range and only positive in the flexible limit. + +### Benchmark context + +`Y_D[0] = -0.4923%` against Bi-Foerster-Traum (FRBSF WP 2025-10) at −0.6%. The +pre-change model was two orders of magnitude below that and the spec flagged the +gap as the main risk to the exercise. Price stickiness closes it **without** their +Sims-Wu loan-in-advance constraint. + ## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`, in progress): Task 9 — 27×27 sticky-price system LIVE, flex-price equivalence gate PASSED The dynamic model is now sticky-price. `full_model.build_block_list()` carries From 9518a02a83e5863d91776ebeb3ed2f3abf4cc518 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Thu, 6 Aug 2026 10:09:32 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 21/42] feat: nominal deposit contracts; ex-ante and ex-post real rates Splits rdep_D/F's two meanings without a wide rename. New i_dep_D/F is the nominal deposit rate (Task 13 wires it as the solver unknown). rdep_D/F keeps its name and its existing ex-ante meaning -- the real rate for t -> t+1 locked at t -- so intermediation_P1_D/F, divert_bond_foc_D/F and divert_portfolio_adj need zero changes. New rdep_expost_D/F is the realised real rate on deposits placed at t-1, carrying the inflation surprise that drives the Fisher-Bernanke channel (banks hold real assets against nominal liabilities, so deflation deepens the net-worth loss). T-2 not reopened: deposit_return_D/F still locks the rate at i_dep(-1); only the deflator is period-t. At pi=0 all three collapse to i_dep, so the steady state stays bit-identical. code/test_nkpc_blocks.py: 11 -> 15 passed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- code/equations_D.py | 43 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-------- code/equations_F.py | 16 ++++++++++----- code/test_nkpc_blocks.py | 39 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ docs/HANDOFF.md | 26 ++++++++++++++++-------- docs/PROGRESS.md | 18 +++++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 25 +++++++++++++++++++++++ 6 files changed, 146 insertions(+), 21 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/equations_D.py b/code/equations_D.py index e37d333..917d11b 100644 --- a/code/equations_D.py +++ b/code/equations_D.py @@ -77,14 +77,41 @@ def income_D(e_grid_D, w_D, N_D, div_D, div_fund_D, profit_D, tau_D, lamb_D, P_C @simple -def deposit_return_D(rdep_D, P_CES_D): - # Bundle-real gross deposit return: corrects for P_CES revaluation between t-1 and t. - # T-2 fix: deposits are one-period non-contingent contracts — the rate paid at t - # was locked at t-1 (rdep_D(-1)). Previously rdep_D (a period-t unknown) was paid - # on the t-1 deposit stock, making deposits state-contingent and generating a - # large bank windfall on impact of shocks (audit.md T-2). - # At SS P_CES_D(-1)/P_CES_D = 1, so Rgross_D = 1 + rdep_D identically. - Rgross_D = (1 + rdep_D(-1)) * P_CES_D(-1) / P_CES_D +def deposit_rates_D(i_dep_D, pi_D): + # Deposits are NOMINAL euro contracts. i_dep_D is the nominal rate and is the + # unknown that clears deposit_mkt_D -- there is no policy rate pinning it, so + # no absorber or cross-border claim is needed and external_account_D is + # untouched. + # + # rdep_D keeps its existing meaning: the EX-ANTE real rate for the t -> t+1 + # holding period, locked at t. That is exactly what intermediation_P1_D, + # divert_bond_foc_D and divert_portfolio_adj already mean by rdep_D, so those + # blocks need no changes. + # + # rdep_expost_D is the REALISED real rate at t on deposits placed at t-1. It + # contains the inflation surprise: a deflation raises the real value of the + # bank's nominal liabilities. Banks hold real assets against nominal + # liabilities, so they are net nominal debtors and this deepens the net-worth + # loss -- the Fisher-Bernanke channel. + # + # At SS pi_D = 0 and both equal i_dep_D, so the SS is bit-identical. + rdep_D = (1 + i_dep_D) / (1 + pi_D(+1)) - 1 + rdep_expost_D = (1 + i_dep_D(-1)) / (1 + pi_D) - 1 + return rdep_D, rdep_expost_D + + +@simple +def deposit_return_D(i_dep_D, P_CES_D, pi_D): + # Bundle-real gross deposit return on a NOMINAL contract. + # P_c_D = P_D * P_CES_D is the nominal CPI, so + # P_c_D(-1)/P_c_D = (P_CES_D(-1)/P_CES_D) / (1 + pi_D). + # + # T-2 is NOT reopened: the rate is still locked at t-1 (i_dep_D(-1)); only + # the deflator is period-t, which this block already did via P_CES. T-2 was + # about paying a period-t UNKNOWN rate on the t-1 deposit stock. + # + # At SS P_CES_D(-1)/P_CES_D = 1 and pi_D = 0, so Rgross_D = 1 + i_dep_D. + Rgross_D = (1 + i_dep_D(-1)) * P_CES_D(-1) / P_CES_D / (1 + pi_D) return Rgross_D diff --git a/code/equations_F.py b/code/equations_F.py index dfd414a..963fe66 100644 --- a/code/equations_F.py +++ b/code/equations_F.py @@ -67,11 +67,17 @@ def income_F(e_grid_F, w_F, N_F, div_F, div_fund_F, profit_F, tau_F, lamb_F, P_C hh_extended_F = hh_F.add_hetinputs([make_grids_F, income_F]) @simple -def deposit_return_F(rdep_F, P_CES_F): - # Bundle-real gross deposit return: corrects for P_CES revaluation between t-1 and t. - # T-2 fix: rate paid at t was locked at t-1 — see deposit_return_D. - # At SS P_CES_F(-1)/P_CES_F = 1, so Rgross_F = 1 + rdep_F identically. - Rgross_F = (1 + rdep_F(-1)) * P_CES_F(-1) / P_CES_F +def deposit_rates_F(i_dep_F, pi_F): + # See deposit_rates_D. + rdep_F = (1 + i_dep_F) / (1 + pi_F(+1)) - 1 + rdep_expost_F = (1 + i_dep_F(-1)) / (1 + pi_F) - 1 + return rdep_F, rdep_expost_F + + +@simple +def deposit_return_F(i_dep_F, P_CES_F, pi_F): + # See deposit_return_D. Nominal contract; T-2 timing preserved. + Rgross_F = (1 + i_dep_F(-1)) * P_CES_F(-1) / P_CES_F / (1 + pi_F) return Rgross_F diff --git a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py index 4a30142..19050be 100644 --- a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py +++ b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py @@ -178,3 +178,42 @@ def test_omega_one_half_splits_evenly(): dlog_p = 1e-4 assert -(1 - omega) * dlog_p == pytest.approx(-0.5 * dlog_p, rel=1e-15) assert omega * dlog_p == pytest.approx(0.5 * dlog_p, rel=1e-15) + + +# ── Nominal deposits ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + +def test_deposit_rates_collapse_at_zero_inflation(): + """At pi = 0 both derived real rates must equal the nominal rate exactly -- + this is what keeps the steady state bit-identical.""" + from equations_D import deposit_rates_D + ss = deposit_rates_D.steady_state({'i_dep_D': 0.0125, 'pi_D': 0.0}) + assert ss['rdep_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0125, rel=1e-15) + assert ss['rdep_expost_D'] == pytest.approx(0.0125, rel=1e-15) + + +def test_deflation_raises_the_realised_real_deposit_rate(): + """Deflation is a windfall to depositors and a loss to banks, which hold + real assets against nominal liabilities. This is the Fisher channel; if the + sign flips, bank_return_D will amplify in the wrong direction.""" + from equations_D import deposit_rates_D + i = 0.0125 + base = deposit_rates_D.steady_state({'i_dep_D': i, 'pi_D': 0.0}) + defl = deposit_rates_D.steady_state({'i_dep_D': i, 'pi_D': -0.001}) + assert defl['rdep_expost_D'] > base['rdep_expost_D'] + assert defl['rdep_expost_D'] == pytest.approx((1 + i) / (1 - 0.001) - 1, rel=1e-14) + + +def test_deposit_return_is_unchanged_at_zero_inflation(): + """Rgross must be exactly 1 + i_dep when pi = 0 and P_CES is flat.""" + from equations_D import deposit_return_D + ss = deposit_return_D.steady_state({'i_dep_D': 0.0125, 'P_CES_D': 1.3, 'pi_D': 0.0}) + assert ss['Rgross_D'] == pytest.approx(1.0125, rel=1e-15) + + +def test_deposit_rates_F_matches_D(): + from equations_D import deposit_rates_D + from equations_F import deposit_rates_F + d = deposit_rates_D.steady_state({'i_dep_D': 0.0125, 'pi_D': -0.001}) + f = deposit_rates_F.steady_state({'i_dep_F': 0.0125, 'pi_F': -0.001}) + assert d['rdep_D'] == pytest.approx(f['rdep_F'], rel=1e-15) + assert d['rdep_expost_D'] == pytest.approx(f['rdep_expost_F'], rel=1e-15) diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 71f6c60..cbda136 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -390,19 +390,29 @@ consequential for the paper right now: | `code/tpi_plots.py`, `code/irf_plots.py` | Figure-generation scripts (regenerate from `main`) | | Overleaf | https://www.overleaf.com/project/698b4f88aeef1d0e1d08cc0c | -## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 10 done, Task 11 next +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 11 done, Task 12 next -**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–10 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price -(27×27) with deposits still **real**. Price stickiness alone flips `C_D[0]` from +**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–11 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price +(27×27) with deposits still **real** in the wiring (Task 11 only adds the derived +blocks; nothing consumes them yet). Price stickiness alone flips `C_D[0]` from +0.2164% to −0.4904% and takes `Y_D[0]` from −0.0149% to −0.4923% — see `docs/STATE.md` for the full table, the `kappa_p` sweep, and the one-quarter-spike caveat that must not be dropped from the write-up. -**Next: Task 11** — `deposit_rates_D/F` and nominal `deposit_return_D/F`, per -`docs/superpowers/plans/2026-08-05-nominal-rigidities.md`. `rdep` keeps its name -as the derived ex-ante real rate; `i_dep` becomes the nominal unknown; -`rdep_expost` is new. That refinement means `intermediation_P1`, `divert_bond_foc` -and `divert_portfolio_adj` need no changes at all. +**Task 11 done.** `equations_D.py`/`equations_F.py`: `deposit_return_D/F` (took +`rdep`) replaced by `deposit_rates_D/F(i_dep, pi)` → `rdep` (unchanged name, +ex-ante real rate, so `intermediation_P1`, `divert_bond_foc` and +`divert_portfolio_adj` need no changes) plus new `rdep_expost` (realised real +rate, carries the inflation surprise), and a new `deposit_return_D/F(i_dep, +P_CES, pi)` → `Rgross`. T-2 timing preserved (`i_dep(-1)` locked). SS-preserving: +at `pi=0` all three rates collapse to `i_dep`. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: +11 → 15 passed. + +**Next: Task 12** — put `rdep_expost_D/F` into `bank_return_D/F` and +`capital_fund_D/F`, the Fisher-channel wiring (banks are net nominal debtors, so +deflation raising `rdep_expost` should deepen the net-worth loss on those blocks). +`i_dep` is still not a solver unknown — Task 13 wires that, and only after Task 13 +will the model solve end-to-end again. **Two things not to rediscover the hard way.** diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index 067f827..a005178 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,24 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-06 — Task 11: nominal deposit contracts, ex-ante/ex-post real rates (`add-nkpc`) + +- Replaced `deposit_return_D/F` (took `rdep`, a real rate) with two blocks: + `deposit_rates_D/F(i_dep, pi)` → `rdep` (ex-ante, unchanged name/meaning) and + `rdep_expost` (new — realised real rate on deposits placed t−1, carries the + inflation surprise); and a new `deposit_return_D/F(i_dep, P_CES, pi)` → `Rgross`. +- `rdep_D/F` deliberately keeps its name so `intermediation_P1_D/F`, + `divert_bond_foc_D/F` and `divert_portfolio_adj` need zero changes — verified + by asserting `rdep_D` in their `.inputs` and `rdep_expost_D` not. +- T-2 not reopened: `deposit_return_D/F` still locks the rate at `i_dep(-1)`; + only the deflator (`P_CES` and now `pi`) is period-t. +- SS-preserving by construction: at `pi=0` all three collapse to `i_dep`, so + `Rgross = 1 + i_dep` exactly. +- Not yet wired into `full_model.py`, calibration, or steady state — `i_dep` + becoming the solver unknown is Task 13. `bank_return_D/F` and + `capital_fund_D/F` still read the old `rdep` — Task 12, next. +- `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 11 → 15 passed, 0 failed. + ## 2026-08-06 — Task 10: price-stickiness-only measurement (`add-nkpc`) - Ran the full pipeline at the calibrated `kappa_p = 0.0871` with deposits still diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index dd6e947..39fabe2 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -2,6 +2,31 @@ **Branch:** `eba-recalibration` | **Date:** 2026-07-31 | **Status:** **EBA calibration rebuilt, identified, and LIVE** (`EBA_CALIBRATION=True`, `BANK_SCOPE="broad"`). Y-1 and RK-1 resolved; spread on target at 150.4bp; TPI loading declining. +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 11 — nominal deposit contracts split into `i_dep`/`rdep`/`rdep_expost` + +`rdep_D/F` is split into three names to avoid a wide, risky rename. `deposit_rates_D/F` +(new `@simple` block) takes the nominal unknown `i_dep_D/F` and `pi_D/F` and returns two +outputs: `rdep_D/F` (unchanged name, unchanged meaning — the ex-ante real rate for +t → t+1, locked at t) and `rdep_expost_D/F` (new — the realised real rate at t on +deposits placed at t−1, `= (1+i_dep(-1))/(1+pi) - 1`, carrying the inflation surprise). +`deposit_return_D/F` now takes `i_dep`, `P_CES`, `pi` instead of `rdep`, keeping the T-2 +timing (rate locked at t−1) and adding the period-t CPI deflator via `pi`. + +Because `rdep_D/F` keeps its name and its ex-ante meaning, `intermediation_P1_D/F`, +`divert_bond_foc_D/F` and `divert_portfolio_adj` (global) are **untouched** — verified by +introspecting `.inputs` after the change (`rdep_D` present, `rdep_expost_D` absent). + +At SS `pi = 0`, so `rdep_D = rdep_expost_D = i_dep_D` and `Rgross_D = 1 + i_dep_D` +exactly — this is what keeps the steady state bit-identical once `i_dep` is wired in as +the solver unknown (Task 13). `deposit_rates_D/F` and the new `deposit_return_D/F` are +not yet wired into `full_model.py`'s block list or the calibration/steady-state — that is +Task 13. `bank_return_D/F` and `capital_fund_D/F` still consume the old `rdep_D` and have +not been touched — that is Task 12, next. + +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` gained 4 tests (11 → 15 passed): SS collapse, deflation raises +the realised real rate (sign check for the Fisher channel), `Rgross` unchanged at +`pi=0`, and D/F symmetry. + ## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 10 — price-stickiness-only result at the calibrated slope Deposits are still **real** here; this isolates what price stickiness alone does. From 2e4c372f9c8ea28925367778bbde7bf879afac30 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Thu, 6 Aug 2026 10:13:02 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 22/42] feat: bank_return and capital_fund pay the ex-post real deposit rate --- code/equations_D.py | 24 ++++++++++++++---------- code/equations_F.py | 23 ++++++++++++++--------- code/test_nkpc_blocks.py | 18 ++++++++++++++++++ docs/HANDOFF.md | 34 ++++++++++++++++++++++------------ docs/PROGRESS.md | 19 +++++++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 27 +++++++++++++++++++++++++-- 6 files changed, 112 insertions(+), 33 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/equations_D.py b/code/equations_D.py index 917d11b..6bf3ba6 100644 --- a/code/equations_D.py +++ b/code/equations_D.py @@ -400,28 +400,32 @@ def intermediation_IC_D(nu_K_D, nu_bD_D, nu_bF_D, eta_D, @simple -def bank_return_D(theta_D, rk_D, rdep_D, b_D_D, b_F_D, n_inter_D, +def bank_return_D(theta_D, rk_D, rdep_expost_D, b_D_D, b_F_D, n_inter_D, rb_actual_D, rb_actual_F, q_b_D, q_b_F): phi_bD_lag_D = q_b_D(-1) * b_D_D(-1) / n_inter_D(-1) phi_bF_lag_D = q_b_F(-1) * b_F_D(-1) / n_inter_D(-1) kappa_lag_D = theta_D(-1) - phi_bD_lag_D - phi_bF_lag_D # T-2 fix: funding cost on the t-1 balance sheet is the rate locked at t-1. - rn_D = (kappa_lag_D * (rk_D - rdep_D(-1)) - + phi_bD_lag_D * (rb_actual_D - rdep_D(-1)) - + phi_bF_lag_D * (rb_actual_F - rdep_D(-1)) - + rdep_D(-1)) + # Under nominal deposits that realised real cost is rdep_expost_D, which + # already carries the (-1) timing internally and contains the inflation + # surprise -- the Fisher revaluation on the bank's nominal liabilities. + rn_D = (kappa_lag_D * (rk_D - rdep_expost_D) + + phi_bD_lag_D * (rb_actual_D - rdep_expost_D) + + phi_bF_lag_D * (rb_actual_F - rdep_expost_D) + + rdep_expost_D) return rn_D @simple -def capital_fund_D(rk_D, rdep_D, Q_D, K_D, omega_K_D, fund_rule_D, K_fund_D): - # Passive capital fund funded by deposits; rebates its spread (rk - rdep) on the - # lagged capital value to households. Same predetermined-rate timing as - # bank_return_D (T-2). Zero when the fund is empty (omega_K_D=1, K_fund_D=0). +def capital_fund_D(rk_D, rdep_expost_D, Q_D, K_D, omega_K_D, fund_rule_D, K_fund_D): + # Passive capital fund funded by deposits; rebates its spread on the lagged + # capital value to households. Same predetermined-rate timing as + # bank_return_D (T-2); rdep_expost_D is the realised real funding cost under + # nominal deposits. Zero when the fund is empty (omega_K_D=1, K_fund_D=0). # fund_rule_D: 0 = fund holds (1-omega_K)·K, 1 = fund holds a constant K_fund. K_fnd_lag_D = ((1.0 - fund_rule_D) * (1.0 - omega_K_D) * K_D(-1) + fund_rule_D * K_fund_D) - div_fund_D = (rk_D - rdep_D(-1)) * Q_D(-1) * K_fnd_lag_D + div_fund_D = (rk_D - rdep_expost_D) * Q_D(-1) * K_fnd_lag_D return div_fund_D diff --git a/code/equations_F.py b/code/equations_F.py index 963fe66..de835c4 100644 --- a/code/equations_F.py +++ b/code/equations_F.py @@ -292,7 +292,7 @@ def intermediation_IC_F(nu_K_F, nu_bF_F, nu_bD_F, eta_F, return ic_res_F @simple -def bank_return_F(theta_F, rk_F, rdep_F, b_F_F, b_D_F, n_inter_F, +def bank_return_F(theta_F, rk_F, rdep_expost_F, b_F_F, b_D_F, n_inter_F, rb_actual_F, rb_actual_D, q_b_F, q_b_D, p): phi_bF_lag_F = q_b_F(-1) * b_F_F(-1) / (p(-1) * n_inter_F(-1)) phi_bD_lag_F = q_b_D(-1) * b_D_F(-1) / (p(-1) * n_inter_F(-1)) @@ -303,21 +303,26 @@ def bank_return_F(theta_F, rk_F, rdep_F, b_F_F, b_D_F, n_inter_F, rb_F_fg = (1 + rb_actual_F) * p(-1) / p - 1 rb_D_fg = (1 + rb_actual_D) * p(-1) / p - 1 # T-2 fix: funding cost on the t-1 balance sheet is the rate locked at t-1. - rn_F = (kappa_lag_F * (rk_F - rdep_F(-1)) - + phi_bF_lag_F * (rb_F_fg - rdep_F(-1)) - + phi_bD_lag_F * (rb_D_fg - rdep_F(-1)) - + rdep_F(-1)) + # Under nominal deposits that realised real cost is rdep_expost_F, which + # already carries the (-1) timing internally and contains the inflation + # surprise -- the Fisher revaluation on the bank's nominal liabilities. + rn_F = (kappa_lag_F * (rk_F - rdep_expost_F) + + phi_bF_lag_F * (rb_F_fg - rdep_expost_F) + + phi_bD_lag_F * (rb_D_fg - rdep_expost_F) + + rdep_expost_F) return rn_F @simple -def capital_fund_F(rk_F, rdep_F, Q_F, K_F, omega_K_F, fund_rule_F, K_fund_F): - # Passive capital fund funded by deposits; rebates its spread (rk - rdep) on the - # lagged capital value to households (F-goods). Zero when the fund is empty. +def capital_fund_F(rk_F, rdep_expost_F, Q_F, K_F, omega_K_F, fund_rule_F, K_fund_F): + # Passive capital fund funded by deposits; rebates its spread on the lagged + # capital value to households (F-goods). Same predetermined-rate timing as + # bank_return_F (T-2); rdep_expost_F is the realised real funding cost under + # nominal deposits. Zero when the fund is empty. # fund_rule_F: 0 = fund holds (1-omega_K)·K, 1 = fund holds a constant K_fund. K_fnd_lag_F = ((1.0 - fund_rule_F) * (1.0 - omega_K_F) * K_F(-1) + fund_rule_F * K_fund_F) - div_fund_F = (rk_F - rdep_F(-1)) * Q_F(-1) * K_fnd_lag_F + div_fund_F = (rk_F - rdep_expost_F) * Q_F(-1) * K_fnd_lag_F return div_fund_F @simple diff --git a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py index 19050be..f16a389 100644 --- a/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py +++ b/code/test_nkpc_blocks.py @@ -217,3 +217,21 @@ def test_deposit_rates_F_matches_D(): f = deposit_rates_F.steady_state({'i_dep_F': 0.0125, 'pi_F': -0.001}) assert d['rdep_D'] == pytest.approx(f['rdep_F'], rel=1e-15) assert d['rdep_expost_D'] == pytest.approx(f['rdep_expost_F'], rel=1e-15) + + +def test_bank_return_uses_the_expost_rate(): + """Signature check: bank_return_D must take rdep_expost_D and must NOT take + rdep_D. Getting this backwards silently reverses the Fisher channel.""" + from equations_D import bank_return_D, capital_fund_D + for blk in (bank_return_D, capital_fund_D): + assert 'rdep_expost_D' in blk.inputs, (blk.name, sorted(blk.inputs)) + assert 'rdep_D' not in blk.inputs, (blk.name, sorted(blk.inputs)) + + +def test_forward_looking_blocks_still_use_rdep(): + """intermediation_P1_D and divert_bond_foc_D are ex-ante and must be + untouched -- rdep_D still means the t -> t+1 real rate.""" + from equations_D import intermediation_P1_D, divert_bond_foc_D + for blk in (intermediation_P1_D, divert_bond_foc_D): + assert 'rdep_D' in blk.inputs, (blk.name, sorted(blk.inputs)) + assert 'rdep_expost_D' not in blk.inputs, (blk.name, sorted(blk.inputs)) diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index cbda136..14c7dab 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -390,14 +390,15 @@ consequential for the paper right now: | `code/tpi_plots.py`, `code/irf_plots.py` | Figure-generation scripts (regenerate from `main`) | | Overleaf | https://www.overleaf.com/project/698b4f88aeef1d0e1d08cc0c | -## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 11 done, Task 12 next +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 12 done, Task 13 next -**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–11 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price -(27×27) with deposits still **real** in the wiring (Task 11 only adds the derived -blocks; nothing consumes them yet). Price stickiness alone flips `C_D[0]` from -+0.2164% to −0.4904% and takes `Y_D[0]` from −0.0149% to −0.4923% — see -`docs/STATE.md` for the full table, the `kappa_p` sweep, and the one-quarter-spike -caveat that must not be dropped from the write-up. +**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–12 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price +(27×27) with deposits still **not wired to a solver unknown** — Task 11 added the +derived rate blocks and Task 12 pointed the two funding-cost blocks at the +realised rate, but `i_dep` itself is not yet a solver unknown. Price stickiness +alone flips `C_D[0]` from +0.2164% to −0.4904% and takes `Y_D[0]` from −0.0149% +to −0.4923% — see `docs/STATE.md` for the full table, the `kappa_p` sweep, and +the one-quarter-spike caveat that must not be dropped from the write-up. **Task 11 done.** `equations_D.py`/`equations_F.py`: `deposit_return_D/F` (took `rdep`) replaced by `deposit_rates_D/F(i_dep, pi)` → `rdep` (unchanged name, @@ -408,11 +409,20 @@ P_CES, pi)` → `Rgross`. T-2 timing preserved (`i_dep(-1)` locked). SS-preservi at `pi=0` all three rates collapse to `i_dep`. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 11 → 15 passed. -**Next: Task 12** — put `rdep_expost_D/F` into `bank_return_D/F` and -`capital_fund_D/F`, the Fisher-channel wiring (banks are net nominal debtors, so -deflation raising `rdep_expost` should deepen the net-worth loss on those blocks). -`i_dep` is still not a solver unknown — Task 13 wires that, and only after Task 13 -will the model solve end-to-end again. +**Task 12 done.** `bank_return_D/F` and `capital_fund_D/F` now take +`rdep_expost_D/F` instead of `rdep_D/F`, with every `rdep_D(-1)` in the bodies +replaced by bare `rdep_expost_D` (it already carries `(-1)` internally — no +double-lagging). This is the Fisher channel: banks are net nominal debtors on +deposits, so a D deflation raises `rdep_expost_D` and deepens the net-worth loss +on those two blocks. `intermediation_P1_D/F`/`divert_bond_foc_D/F` (ex-ante, +t → t+1) still correctly read `rdep_D/F`, untouched. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: +15 → 17 passed. + +**Next: Task 13** — wire `i_dep_D/F` in as the solver unknown across +`calibration.py`/`steady_state.py`/`full_model.py`. Only after Task 13 will the +model solve end-to-end again; its gate check is that `n_inter_D[0]` becomes +*more* negative under a deflation shock (the Fisher channel amplifying, not +reversing, the sign). **Two things not to rediscover the hard way.** diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index a005178..1f30595 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,25 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-06 — Task 12: bank_return/capital_fund pay the ex-post real deposit rate (`add-nkpc`) + +- `bank_return_D/F` and `capital_fund_D/F`: signature `rdep_D/F` → `rdep_expost_D/F`; + every `rdep_D(-1)`/`rdep_F(-1)` in the bodies replaced with bare `rdep_expost_D/F` + (it already carries its own `(-1)` timing — writing `rdep_expost_D(-1)` would + double-lag it). +- `intermediation_P1_D/F` and `divert_bond_foc_D/F` untouched — ex-ante (t → t+1) + blocks correctly still read `rdep_D/F`. F's W-2 `p(-1)/p` conversion in + `bank_return_F` preserved, unrelated to this change. +- This is the Fisher channel: banks are net nominal debtors on deposits, so a D + deflation raises `rdep_expost_D` and deepens the net-worth loss in + `bank_return_D`/`capital_fund_D`. Task 13's gate checks the sign directly + (`n_inter_D[0]` more negative, not less, under a deflation shock). +- `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 15 → 17 passed, 0 failed. New tests check the + signature swap in both directions (ex-post blocks take `rdep_expost_D` and not + `rdep_D`; ex-ante blocks take `rdep_D` and not `rdep_expost_D`). +- Model still does not solve end-to-end — `i_dep` becoming the solver unknown + is Task 13, next. + ## 2026-08-06 — Task 11: nominal deposit contracts, ex-ante/ex-post real rates (`add-nkpc`) - Replaced `deposit_return_D/F` (took `rdep`, a real rate) with two blocks: diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 39fabe2..123f5af 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -20,13 +20,36 @@ At SS `pi = 0`, so `rdep_D = rdep_expost_D = i_dep_D` and `Rgross_D = 1 + i_dep_ exactly — this is what keeps the steady state bit-identical once `i_dep` is wired in as the solver unknown (Task 13). `deposit_rates_D/F` and the new `deposit_return_D/F` are not yet wired into `full_model.py`'s block list or the calibration/steady-state — that is -Task 13. `bank_return_D/F` and `capital_fund_D/F` still consume the old `rdep_D` and have -not been touched — that is Task 12, next. +Task 13. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` gained 4 tests (11 → 15 passed): SS collapse, deflation raises the realised real rate (sign check for the Fisher channel), `Rgross` unchanged at `pi=0`, and D/F symmetry. +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 12 — `bank_return_D/F`/`capital_fund_D/F` now pay the ex-post real rate + +The Fisher channel: `bank_return_D/F` and `capital_fund_D/F` pay for deposits taken on at +t−1, so they must use the *realised* real rate on that funding, not the ex-ante one. +Signature changed `rdep_D/F` → `rdep_expost_D/F`; all four (three, for `capital_fund`) +occurrences of `rdep_D(-1)`/`rdep_F(-1)` in the bodies became bare `rdep_expost_D/F` +(`rdep_expost` already carries its own `(-1)` internally — writing `rdep_expost_D(-1)` +would double-lag it). `intermediation_P1_D/F` and `divert_bond_foc_D/F` are untouched — +they are ex-ante (t → t+1) and still correctly read `rdep_D/F`. F's W-2 `p(-1)/p` +terms-of-trade conversion in `bank_return_F` is unrelated and was left alone. + +Sign logic: D banks are net nominal debtors on deposits. When D deflates, +`rdep_expost_D` rises (the real value of what the bank owes goes up), so `bank_return_D` +falls further — this is what Task 13's gate checks (`n_inter_D[0]` more negative, not +less). Getting the substitution backwards would silently invert the whole channel. + +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` gained 2 tests (15 → 17 passed): a signature check that +`bank_return_D`/`capital_fund_D` take `rdep_expost_D` and not `rdep_D`, and a check that +`intermediation_P1_D`/`divert_bond_foc_D` still take `rdep_D` and not `rdep_expost_D`. + +**Next: Task 13** — wire `i_dep_D/F` in as the solver unknown across +`calibration.py`/`steady_state.py`/`full_model.py`, and verify the Fisher sign +(`n_inter_D[0]` more negative under a D deflation shock). + ## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 10 — price-stickiness-only result at the calibrated slope Deposits are still **real** here; this isolates what price stickiness alone does. From 9057b375bf6a320bae0312b493bcf954418fbc24 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Thu, 6 Aug 2026 10:23:39 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 23/42] feat: nominal deposits wired; Fisher channel deepens the net-worth loss --- code/calibration.py | 6 +++- code/full_model.py | 12 ++++---- code/steady_state.py | 5 ++-- docs/HANDOFF.md | 37 ++++++++++++++++--------- docs/PROGRESS.md | 30 ++++++++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 66 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-- 6 files changed, 131 insertions(+), 25 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/calibration.py b/code/calibration.py index 174c830..0b3416a 100644 --- a/code/calibration.py +++ b/code/calibration.py @@ -67,7 +67,11 @@ def eba_or(key, pre_eba): 'eis_D': 0.5, 'eis_F': 0.5, # ── Rates & Asset Prices ────────────────────────────────────────────── - 'rdep_D': 0.000, 'rdep_F': 0.000, + # Nominal deposit rate. Deposits are nominal euro contracts; the derived + # real rates rdep_D/F (ex-ante) and rdep_expost_D/F (realised) come from + # deposit_rates_D/F. At SS pi = 0, so rdep = i_dep and the SS is + # unchanged from the real-deposit calibration. + 'i_dep_D': 0.000, 'i_dep_F': 0.000, 'q_b_D': 0.83, 'q_b_F': 0.83, 'Q_D': 1.0, 'Q_F': 1.0, diff --git a/code/full_model.py b/code/full_model.py index 8cc0acd..c0b947d 100644 --- a/code/full_model.py +++ b/code/full_model.py @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ intermediation_P2_D, banker_div_res_D, intermediation_P3_D, government_default_D, divert_bond_foc_D, tax_rule_D, capital_producer_profit_D, budget_residual_D, - ces_price_D, import_demand_D, deposit_return_D, + ces_price_D, import_demand_D, deposit_rates_D, deposit_return_D, bond_return_D, sdf_D, sdf_banker_ss_D, sdf_banker_D, ghh_composite_D, welfare_agg_D, market_clearing_D, hh_extended_D, price_nkpc_D, firm_profit_D, @@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ intermediation_P2_F, banker_div_res_F, intermediation_P3_F, government_default_F, divert_bond_foc_F, tax_rule_F, capital_producer_profit_F, budget_residual_F, - ces_price_F, import_demand_F, deposit_return_F, + ces_price_F, import_demand_F, deposit_rates_F, deposit_return_F, bond_return_F, sdf_F, sdf_banker_ss_F, sdf_banker_F, ghh_composite_F, welfare_agg_F, market_clearing_F, hh_extended_F, price_nkpc_F, firm_profit_F, @@ -60,7 +60,7 @@ def pick(name, default): return [ # Country D - deposit_return_D, tax_rule_D, hh_D, ghh_composite_D, + deposit_rates_D, deposit_return_D, tax_rule_D, hh_D, ghh_composite_D, sdf_D, sdf_banker_D, government_default_D, financial_solved_D, bond_return_D, bank_return_D, capital_fund_D, cap_adj_cost_inter_D, macro_pru_tax_D, intermediation_P2_D, intermediation_P3_D, k_balance_sheet_D, @@ -70,7 +70,7 @@ def pick(name, default): firm_profit_D, price_nkpc_D, market_clearing_D, welfare_agg_D, # Country F - deposit_return_F, tax_rule_F, hh_F, ghh_composite_F, + deposit_rates_F, deposit_return_F, tax_rule_F, hh_F, ghh_composite_F, sdf_F, sdf_banker_F, government_default_F, financial_solved_F, bond_return_F, bank_return_F, capital_fund_F, cap_adj_cost_inter_F, macro_pru_tax_F, intermediation_P2_F, intermediation_P3_F, k_balance_sheet_F, @@ -184,9 +184,9 @@ def build_and_solve(ss_results): # normalisation. No targets are renamed or removed -- labor_mkt_res_D/F is # unchanged because wages stay flexible. unknowns_tp = [ - 'K_D', 'n_inter_D', 'div_D', 'I_D', 'Q_D', 'b_gov_D', 'N_D', 'b_F_D', 'w_D', 'rdep_D', + 'K_D', 'n_inter_D', 'div_D', 'I_D', 'Q_D', 'b_gov_D', 'N_D', 'b_F_D', 'w_D', 'i_dep_D', 'mc_D', 'pi_D', - 'K_F', 'n_inter_F', 'div_F', 'I_F', 'Q_F', 'b_gov_F', 'N_F', 'b_D_F', 'w_F', 'rdep_F', + 'K_F', 'n_inter_F', 'div_F', 'I_F', 'Q_F', 'b_gov_F', 'N_F', 'b_D_F', 'w_F', 'i_dep_F', 'mc_F', 'pi_F', 'p', 'q_b_D', 'q_b_F', ] diff --git a/code/steady_state.py b/code/steady_state.py index f41cded..4fe6074 100644 --- a/code/steady_state.py +++ b/code/steady_state.py @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ smart_steady_D, market_clearing_D, steady_auxilliary_D, banker_div_D, sdf_D, sdf_ss_D, sdf_banker_ss_D, government_ss_D, labor_ss_D, government_default_D, bond_price_ss_D, bond_return_D, - ces_price_D, import_demand_D, deposit_return_D, + ces_price_D, import_demand_D, deposit_rates_D, deposit_return_D, firm_profit_D, price_nkpc_D, ) from equations_F import ( @@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ smart_steady_F, market_clearing_F, steady_auxilliary_F, banker_div_F, sdf_F, sdf_ss_F, sdf_banker_ss_F, government_ss_F, labor_ss_F, government_default_F, bond_price_ss_F, bond_return_F, - ces_price_F, import_demand_F, deposit_return_F, + ces_price_F, import_demand_F, deposit_rates_F, deposit_return_F, firm_profit_F, price_nkpc_F, ) from equations_global import ( @@ -161,6 +161,7 @@ def solve_steady_state(calibration_start): hh_extended_F, smart_steady_F, market_clearing_F, steady_auxilliary_F, banker_div_F, government_ss_F, labor_ss_F, firm_profit_F, price_nkpc_F, ces_price_D, import_demand_D, ces_price_F, import_demand_F, + deposit_rates_D, deposit_rates_F, deposit_return_D, deposit_return_F, bond_yield, trade_balance, external_account_D, global_goods_mkt, diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 14c7dab..8f42e7f 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -390,14 +390,14 @@ consequential for the paper right now: | `code/tpi_plots.py`, `code/irf_plots.py` | Figure-generation scripts (regenerate from `main`) | | Overleaf | https://www.overleaf.com/project/698b4f88aeef1d0e1d08cc0c | -## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 12 done, Task 13 next - -**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–12 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price -(27×27) with deposits still **not wired to a solver unknown** — Task 11 added the -derived rate blocks and Task 12 pointed the two funding-cost blocks at the -realised rate, but `i_dep` itself is not yet a solver unknown. Price stickiness -alone flips `C_D[0]` from +0.2164% to −0.4904% and takes `Y_D[0]` from −0.0149% -to −0.4923% — see `docs/STATE.md` for the full table, the `kappa_p` sweep, and +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 13 done, Task 14 next + +**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–13 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price +(27×27) **with nominal deposit contracts live and solving end-to-end**. `i_dep_D/F` +is the solver unknown; `rdep_D/F` (ex-ante) and `rdep_expost_D/F` (realised) are +derived. Price stickiness alone flips `C_D[0]` from +0.2164% to −0.4904% and takes +`Y_D[0]` from −0.0149% to −0.4923%; adding nominal deposits takes those to −0.5499% +and −0.5449% — see `docs/STATE.md` for the full table, the `kappa_p` sweep, and the one-quarter-spike caveat that must not be dropped from the write-up. **Task 11 done.** `equations_D.py`/`equations_F.py`: `deposit_return_D/F` (took @@ -418,11 +418,22 @@ on those two blocks. `intermediation_P1_D/F`/`divert_bond_foc_D/F` (ex-ante, t → t+1) still correctly read `rdep_D/F`, untouched. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: 15 → 17 passed. -**Next: Task 13** — wire `i_dep_D/F` in as the solver unknown across -`calibration.py`/`steady_state.py`/`full_model.py`. Only after Task 13 will the -model solve end-to-end again; its gate check is that `n_inter_D[0]` becomes -*more* negative under a deflation shock (the Fisher channel amplifying, not -reversing, the sign). +**Task 13 done.** `i_dep_D/F` wired in as the solver unknown: +`calibration.py` renames the parameter `rdep_D/F → i_dep_D/F`; `steady_state.py` +and `full_model.py` add `deposit_rates_D/F` to their block lists; `unknowns_tp` +swaps `rdep_D/F → i_dep_D/F` with `targets_tp` unchanged (still 27×27). The model +solves end-to-end again and the **steady state is bit-identical** to the +pre-change baseline (`goods_mkt_D = -4.2493506589857954e-07`, `ca_res_D = +6.852157730108388e-17`, `ρ_b = 0.8451`). **Fisher gate passed**: on the D default +shock, real → nominal deposits deepens `n_inter_D[0]` −4.0140% → −4.6155%, +`Y_D[0]` −0.4923% → −0.5449%, `C_D[0]` −0.4904% → −0.5499%, `I_D[0]` −0.9907% → +−1.0849%. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` still 17 passed. + +**Next: Task 14** — re-tune `psi_lambda_B` to the 150bp spread moment. The spread +target was last hit on the flex-price real-deposit model; sticky prices plus +nominal deposits have moved it and it has not been re-fitted. Do the re-fit against +the full current model (`code/main.py`), and rebuild the regime cache afterwards +(`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`) since `experiments/` reads it. **Two things not to rediscover the hard way.** diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index 1f30595..f5bf9d5 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,36 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-06 — Task 13: nominal deposits wired in; Fisher channel deepens the net-worth loss (`add-nkpc`) + +- `code/calibration.py`: `'rdep_D'/'rdep_F': 0.000` → `'i_dep_D'/'i_dep_F': 0.000`. + `rdep_D/F` stops being a calibration input and becomes a solved output of + `deposit_rates_D/F`. All existing `ss['rdep_D']` reads (`steady_state.py`, + `depreciation_calibration.py`, `irf_plots.py`, `diagnostics/solve_configs.py`) + keep working untouched. +- `code/steady_state.py`, `code/full_model.py`: `deposit_rates_D/F` imported and + added to both block lists, immediately before `deposit_return_D/F`. +- `code/full_model.py`: `unknowns_tp` swaps `rdep_D/F` → `i_dep_D/F`. `targets_tp` + unchanged — system stays 27×27. +- **The model solves end-to-end again** (it did not between Tasks 11 and 13). +- **SS gate passed, bit-identical to baseline:** `goods_mkt_D = -4.2493506589857954e-07`, + `goods_mkt_F = -4.1914559989475464e-07`, `ca_res_D = 6.852157730108388e-17`, + `IC_D: θ − θ_tgt = 1.776357e-15`, `ρ_b = 0.8451`, `b_gov_D[499] = 1.6e-05`, + all residuals `< 1e-8 ✓`. Three rates collapse exactly at `pi=0`: + `i_dep_D = rdep_D = rdep_expost_D = 0.0`. +- **Fisher gate passed.** Impact of the D default shock, sticky prices throughout, + real vs nominal deposits: `Y_D[0]` −0.4923% → −0.5449%, `C_D[0]` −0.4904% → + −0.5499%, `I_D[0]` −0.9907% → −1.0849%, `n_inter_D[0]` −4.0140% → **−4.6155%**. + Amplification concentrated in bank net worth (−0.60pp, ~15% deeper) and reaching + output only through the intermediary — the correct signature of the channel. +- Task 10's one-quarter-spike caveat is unchanged: nominal deposits deepen the + impact quarter but do not fix the quarter-2-onward sign reversal. +- `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` unchanged at 17 passed, 0 failed (no new equations). +- Not done here: the spread moment has drifted and needs re-tuning — Task 14 + (`psi_lambda_B` to 150bp). + +--- + ## 2026-08-06 — Task 12: bank_return/capital_fund pay the ex-post real deposit rate (`add-nkpc`) - `bank_return_D/F` and `capital_fund_D/F`: signature `rdep_D/F` → `rdep_expost_D/F`; diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 123f5af..dc2d69c 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -46,9 +46,69 @@ less). Getting the substitution backwards would silently invert the whole channe `bank_return_D`/`capital_fund_D` take `rdep_expost_D` and not `rdep_D`, and a check that `intermediation_P1_D`/`divert_bond_foc_D` still take `rdep_D` and not `rdep_expost_D`. -**Next: Task 13** — wire `i_dep_D/F` in as the solver unknown across -`calibration.py`/`steady_state.py`/`full_model.py`, and verify the Fisher sign -(`n_inter_D[0]` more negative under a D deflation shock). +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 13 — nominal deposits WIRED IN; Fisher gate PASSED + +The model solves end-to-end again. Three edits, no equation changed: + +- `code/calibration.py` — `'rdep_D'/'rdep_F': 0.000` renamed to `'i_dep_D'/'i_dep_F': 0.000`. + `rdep_D/F` is no longer a calibration parameter; it is an output of `deposit_rates_D/F`. + Every `ss['rdep_D']` read elsewhere (`steady_state.py` excess-return anchors and + `Rgross` seeding, `depreciation_calibration.py` printout, `irf_plots.py`, + `diagnostics/solve_configs.py`) still works unchanged — the object exists, it is just + solved rather than supplied. +- `code/steady_state.py` and `code/full_model.py` — `deposit_rates_D/F` imported and + placed immediately before `deposit_return_D/F` in both block lists. +- `code/full_model.py` — `unknowns_tp`: `rdep_D → i_dep_D`, `rdep_F → i_dep_F`. + `targets_tp` **unchanged**; the system is still 27×27. + +**SS gate: PASSED, bit-identical.** Every numeric steady-state line diffs clean against +the pre-change baseline: `goods_mkt_D = -4.2493506589857954e-07`, +`goods_mkt_F = -4.1914559989475464e-07`, `ca_res_D = 6.852157730108388e-17`, +`IC_D: θ − θ_tgt = 1.776357e-15`, all residuals `< 1e-8 ✓`, `ρ_b = 0.8451`, +`b_gov_D[499] = 1.6e-05`. And the three rates collapse exactly at `pi = 0`: +`i_dep_D = rdep_D = rdep_expost_D = 0.000000000000`. + +**Fisher gate: PASSED.** Impact response to the D default shock, sticky prices in both +columns; the only difference is real vs nominal deposit contracts. + +| | sticky, REAL deposits (Task 10) | + NOMINAL deposits (Task 13) | change | +|---|---|---|---| +| `Y_D[0]` | −0.4923% | **−0.5449%** | −0.0525 | +| `C_D[0]` | −0.4904% | **−0.5499%** | −0.0595 | +| `I_D[0]` | −0.9907% | **−1.0849%** | −0.0942 | +| `n_inter_D[0]` | −4.0140% | **−4.6155%** | −0.6016 | + +The sign is right and the ordering is right: the amplification lands hardest on bank net +worth (−0.60pp, ~15% deeper), and only reaches output through the intermediary. That is +the Fisher channel doing exactly what it should — D banks are net nominal debtors on +deposits, the crisis deflates D, `rdep_expost_D` rises, and the realised real funding +cost eats further into `n_inter_D`. Had the Task 12 ex-post/ex-ante substitution been +backwards, `n_inter_D[0]` would have gone *less* negative; it does not. + +First 8 quarters, % of SS: + +``` +Y_D real dep : -0.4923 +0.0083 +0.1006 +0.0881 +0.0580 +0.0329 +0.0161 +0.0063 +Y_D nominal dep: -0.5449 -0.0011 +0.1021 +0.0912 +0.0604 +0.0342 +0.0165 +0.0061 +C_D real dep : -0.4904 +0.1141 +0.1553 +0.0790 +0.0046 -0.0440 -0.0685 -0.0761 +C_D nominal dep: -0.5499 +0.1144 +0.1676 +0.0903 +0.0124 -0.0395 -0.0665 -0.0758 +``` + +The **one-quarter-spike caveat from Task 10 survives unchanged** and must not be dropped +from the write-up: nominal deposits deepen the impact quarter but do not fix the sign +reversal from quarter 2 on — `Y_D` is already back to ≈0 at q1 and positive by q2 in both +columns. Nominal contracts amplify the impact; they do not lengthen the recession. +`C_D[1]` is essentially unmoved (+0.1141 → +0.1144), so the whole Fisher effect is an +impact-quarter effect. + +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: **17 passed, 0 failed** (unchanged — Task 13 added no +equations, so no new tests). + +Caveat carried forward: the spread moment has drifted with the nominal side and has not +been re-tuned. That is Task 14. + +**Next: Task 14** — re-tune `psi_lambda_B` to the 150bp spread moment on the full +sticky-price / nominal-deposit model. ## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 10 — price-stickiness-only result at the calibrated slope From 151ef3d290ecfb3b39c03b076a28ea3e4ceb552a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Thu, 6 Aug 2026 10:42:20 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 24/42] calib: re-tune psi_lambda_B to the 150bp spread moment under sticky prices Sticky prices (NKPC blocks, Task 9-10) and nominal deposit contracts (Task 11-13) both raised GR-DE spread transmission on a 1pp default shock from the pre-change 150.4bp to 162.0bp at psi_lambda_B=8.5, an 8% overshoot of the paper's 150bp calibration target. Re-bisected psi_lambda_B_D/F holding everything else fixed: 8.5 -> 162.14bp, 7.0 -> 136.21bp, 7.8 -> 149.16bp, 7.85 -> 150.14bp (adopted, within 1bp). b_gov_D[499] stayed in the ~1e-5..1e-4 band throughout, no instability opened up while descending from 8.5. Full-pipeline re-verification: SS residuals byte-identical to every prior task's baseline (the dial only touches dynamics). gamma=0 peak spread = 150.0bp on target; gamma=2/5/10 still monotone declining; n_inter_D[0]/Y_D[0] both negative (correct doom-loop sign). 17/17 block tests still pass. E1-E4 in docs/experiments_results.md are now stale until the regime cache is rebuilt (Task 15). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- code/calibration.py | 17 +++++++++++-- docs/HANDOFF.md | 48 ++++++++++++++++++++++------------- docs/PROGRESS.md | 28 +++++++++++++++++++++ docs/STATE.md | 61 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-- 4 files changed, 133 insertions(+), 21 deletions(-) diff --git a/code/calibration.py b/code/calibration.py index 0b3416a..429ead2 100644 --- a/code/calibration.py +++ b/code/calibration.py @@ -150,8 +150,21 @@ def eba_or(key, pre_eba): # _apply_ss_anchors, so a sweep MUST re-solve the SS per point. Patching # the flag on an already-solved SS leaves psi_spread stale and inverts the # apparent sign of the spread response. - 'psi_lambda_B_D': 8.5 if EBA_CALIBRATION else 3.0, - 'psi_lambda_B_F': 8.5 if EBA_CALIBRATION else 3.0, + # + # RETUNED 2026-08-06 (Task 14, add-nkpc): sticky prices (NKPC blocks) and + # nominal (non-state-contingent) deposit contracts both raise spread + # transmission, moving the old 8.5 -> 162.0 bp (was 150.4 bp pre-change, + # ~8% over target). Re-bisected against the same 150bp GR-DE peak-spread + # moment on a 1pp default shock, holding everything else fixed: + # psi_lambda_B = 8.5 -> peak spread 0.4053 pp -> 162.14 bp + # psi_lambda_B = 7.0 -> peak spread 0.3405 pp -> 136.21 bp + # psi_lambda_B = 7.8 -> peak spread 0.3729 pp -> 149.16 bp + # psi_lambda_B = 7.85 -> peak spread 0.3753 pp -> 150.14 bp <- adopted + # b_gov_D[499] stayed in ~1e-5..1e-4 across the whole bracket (no + # instability); n_inter_D[0] and Y_D[0] both negative throughout + # (correct doom-loop sign). See docs/STATE.md for the full record. + 'psi_lambda_B_D': 7.85 if EBA_CALIBRATION else 3.0, + 'psi_lambda_B_F': 7.85 if EBA_CALIBRATION else 3.0, # Bank net worth = Core Tier 1 / own quarterly nominal GDP. # GR 22,778/55,898 = 0.4075; DE 114,317/653,815 = 0.1748. 'n_inter_D': eba_or('n_inter_D', 0.75*4), 'n_inter_F': eba_or('n_inter_F', 0.75*4), diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 8f42e7f..9432d17 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -390,15 +390,17 @@ consequential for the paper right now: | `code/tpi_plots.py`, `code/irf_plots.py` | Figure-generation scripts (regenerate from `main`) | | Overleaf | https://www.overleaf.com/project/698b4f88aeef1d0e1d08cc0c | -## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 13 done, Task 14 next - -**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–13 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price -(27×27) **with nominal deposit contracts live and solving end-to-end**. `i_dep_D/F` -is the solver unknown; `rdep_D/F` (ex-ante) and `rdep_expost_D/F` (realised) are -derived. Price stickiness alone flips `C_D[0]` from +0.2164% to −0.4904% and takes -`Y_D[0]` from −0.0149% to −0.4923%; adding nominal deposits takes those to −0.5499% -and −0.5449% — see `docs/STATE.md` for the full table, the `kappa_p` sweep, and -the one-quarter-spike caveat that must not be dropped from the write-up. +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 14 done, Task 15 next + +**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–14 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price +(27×27) **with nominal deposit contracts live and solving end-to-end, and +`psi_lambda_B` re-tuned back onto the 150bp spread moment** (7.85, was 8.5). +`i_dep_D/F` is the solver unknown; `rdep_D/F` (ex-ante) and `rdep_expost_D/F` +(realised) are derived. Price stickiness alone flips `C_D[0]` from +0.2164% to +−0.4904% and takes `Y_D[0]` from −0.0149% to −0.4923%; adding nominal deposits +takes those to −0.5499% and −0.5449% — see `docs/STATE.md` for the full table, +the `kappa_p` sweep, and the one-quarter-spike caveat that must not be dropped +from the write-up. **Task 11 done.** `equations_D.py`/`equations_F.py`: `deposit_return_D/F` (took `rdep`) replaced by `deposit_rates_D/F(i_dep, pi)` → `rdep` (unchanged name, @@ -429,11 +431,22 @@ shock, real → nominal deposits deepens `n_inter_D[0]` −4.0140% → −4.6155 `Y_D[0]` −0.4923% → −0.5449%, `C_D[0]` −0.4904% → −0.5499%, `I_D[0]` −0.9907% → −1.0849%. `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` still 17 passed. -**Next: Task 14** — re-tune `psi_lambda_B` to the 150bp spread moment. The spread -target was last hit on the flex-price real-deposit model; sticky prices plus -nominal deposits have moved it and it has not been re-fitted. Do the re-fit against -the full current model (`code/main.py`), and rebuild the regime cache afterwards -(`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`) since `experiments/` reads it. +**Task 14 done.** `psi_lambda_B_D/F` re-bisected against the 150bp GR–DE peak- +spread moment on the full sticky-price/nominal-deposit model: `8.5 → 162.14bp`, +`7.0 → 136.21bp`, `7.8 → 149.16bp`, `7.85 → 150.14bp` (adopted, within 1bp). +`code/calibration.py`'s `EBA_CALIBRATION` branch changed `8.5 → 7.85`; the +pre-EBA `else 3.0` branch is untouched. Full-pipeline re-verification: SS +byte-identical to every prior task's baseline (the dial only touches dynamics), +`gamma=0` peak spread = +0.375 pp = 150.0 bp on target, `gamma=2/5/10` still +monotone declining, `n_inter_D[0]`/`Y_D[0]` both negative, `b_gov_D[499]=4.6e-05` +(same order as Task 13's 1.6e-05 — no instability). `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` +unchanged, 17 passed. Full table and harness details in `docs/STATE.md`. + +**Next: Task 15** — rebuild the regime cache against the re-tuned model +(`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`), then re-run +`experiments/run_all.py`. `docs/experiments_results.md` (E1–E4) is stale as of +this commit: it was built against `psi_lambda_B=8.5` and, further back, against +the pre-sticky-price model, not the current 7.85 tuning. **Two things not to rediscover the hard way.** @@ -442,9 +455,10 @@ the full current model (`code/main.py`), and rebuild the regime cache afterwards `full_model.solve_jacobian_padded()`. All call sites were converted in Task 9b; `grep -rn "\.solve_jacobian(" --include="*.py" code experiments diagnostics` must stay empty. -2. The regime cache has **not** been rebuilt against the 27×27 system. Task 15 - does that (`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`), and E1–E4 numbers - are stale until it runs. +2. The regime cache has **not** been rebuilt against the 27×27 system, or against + the Task 14 `psi_lambda_B=7.85` retune. Task 15 does both + (`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`), and E1–E4 numbers are stale + until it runs. ## Run environment diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index f5bf9d5..7190610 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,34 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-06 — Task 14: `psi_lambda_B` re-tuned to the 150bp spread moment (`add-nkpc`) + +- Task 13's Fisher channel (plus NKPC stickiness) had pushed the peak GR–DE spread + response to a 1pp default shock from 150.4bp (pre-change) to 162.0bp at the old + `psi_lambda_B_D/F = 8.5`, an 8% overshoot of the paper's 150bp target moment. +- Re-bisected with a scratch harness (`/tmp/eval_psi.py`, not committed) that patches + `calibration.get_calibration` per point and re-solves SS → IC-δ → depreciation → + full model, matching `tpi.py`'s own `peak_pp = spread_rb[:100].max()*100`, + `bp_ann = peak_pp*400` convention. Sanity-checked against the stated 162.0bp + baseline first (got 162.14) before tuning. +- Bisection: `psi_lambda_B = 8.5 → 162.14bp`, `7.0 → 136.21bp`, `7.8 → 149.16bp`, + `7.85 → 150.14bp` (adopted). `b_gov_D[499]` stayed in the ~1e-5..1e-4 band + throughout — no instability opened up while lowering the dial. +- **`code/calibration.py`**: `psi_lambda_B_D/F` `8.5 → 7.85` under `EBA_CALIBRATION` + (the pre-EBA `else 3.0` branch untouched), with the bisection table recorded in a + comment. +- Full-pipeline re-verification: SS residuals byte-identical to every prior task's + baseline (`psi_lambda_B` only touches dynamics, not SS). `gamma=0` peak spread + = +0.375 pp = **150.0 bp**, on target; `gamma=2/5/10` still monotone declining. + `n_inter_D[0]=-4.2962%`, `Y_D[0]=-0.5064%` (both correct sign); + `b_gov_D[499]=4.6e-05`, same order as the Task 13 baseline. No `assert_gk_well_posed` + failure. +- `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` unchanged at 17 passed, 0 failed (calibration-only change). +- Not done here: `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py`'s cached Jacobian and + `docs/experiments_results.md` (E1–E4) are stale until rebuilt — Task 15. + +--- + ## 2026-08-06 — Task 13: nominal deposits wired in; Fisher channel deepens the net-worth loss (`add-nkpc`) - `code/calibration.py`: `'rdep_D'/'rdep_F': 0.000` → `'i_dep_D'/'i_dep_F': 0.000`. diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index dc2d69c..98c4ad7 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -107,8 +107,65 @@ equations, so no new tests). Caveat carried forward: the spread moment has drifted with the nominal side and has not been re-tuned. That is Task 14. -**Next: Task 14** — re-tune `psi_lambda_B` to the 150bp spread moment on the full -sticky-price / nominal-deposit model. +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 14 — `psi_lambda_B` re-tuned to the 150bp spread moment + +Task 13's Fisher channel (plus the earlier NKPC stickiness) raised peak GR–DE spread +transmission on a 1pp default shock from the pre-change 150.4bp to **162.0bp** at the old +`psi_lambda_B = 8.5`, an 8% overshoot of the paper's 150bp target (2010-12 calibration +moment). `psi_lambda_B` is the model's one free amplification dial and is data-disciplined +to exactly this moment, so it was re-bisected, everything else held fixed. + +**Harness.** A scratch script (`/tmp/eval_psi.py`, not committed) patches +`calibration.get_calibration` to override `psi_lambda_B_D/F` from an env var, re-solves SS +→ IC-δ → depreciation → full model per point, and reads `irfs_def_D['spread_rb']`. It +replicates `tpi.py`'s own convention exactly: `peak_spread_pp = spread_rb[:100].max()*100`, +then `bp_ann = peak_spread_pp*400` (quarterly pp → annualised bp). A first pass omitted the +`*100` step and read 1.62bp instead of 162bp for `psi_lambda_B=8.5`; the corrected harness +was sanity-checked to reproduce the task's stated 162.0bp baseline (got 162.14) before any +tuning happened. + +**Bisection table** (peak spread on a 1pp D default shock, γ=0, `EBA_CALIBRATION=True`, +`BANK_SCOPE="broad"`): + +| `psi_lambda_B` | peak spread (pp) | annualised bp | `b_gov_D[499]` | +|---|---|---|---| +| 8.5 (old) | 0.4053 | 162.14 | 1.62e-05 | +| 7.0 | 0.3405 | 136.21 | −1.68e-04 | +| 7.8 | 0.3729 | 149.16 | 5.27e-05 | +| **7.85 (adopted)** | **0.3753** | **150.14** | 4.63e-05 | + +150.14bp is within 1bp of the 150bp target. `b_gov_D[499]` stays in the same ~1e-5..1e-4 +band across the whole bracket — no instability opened up while descending from 8.5 to +7.85, consistent with CLAUDE.md's note that this direction moves *away* from the +high-`psi_lambda_B` linearisation-breakdown region, not toward it. `n_inter_D[0]` and +`Y_D[0]` were both negative (correct doom-loop sign) at every point evaluated. + +**Adopted value: `psi_lambda_B_D = psi_lambda_B_F = 7.85`** (was 8.5), `EBA_CALIBRATION` +branch only; the pre-EBA `else 3.0` branch is untouched. Set in `code/calibration.py` +around line 153-154, with the bisection table recorded in a comment there. + +**Full-pipeline verification at the tuned value** (`code/main.py`, T=500 Jacobian): +steady-state residuals are byte-identical to every prior task's baseline — +`goods_mkt_D = -4.2493506589857954e-07`, `goods_mkt_F = -4.1914559989475464e-07`, +`ca_res_D = 6.852157730108388e-17`, `IC_D: θ − θ_tgt = 1.776357e-15`, `ρ_b = 0.8451`, +`All residuals < 1e-8 ✓` (SS-level quantities don't depend on `psi_lambda_B` at all, so +this is expected — the dial only touches dynamics). Dynamics: + +- `gamma=0` peak spread = **+0.375 pp → 150.0 bp**, on target. +- `gamma=2/5/10` peak spread = +0.313 / +0.246 / +0.177 pp — still monotone declining in + the TPI backstop strength, loading construction intact. +- `n_inter_D[0] = -4.2962%` of SS, `Y_D[0] = -0.5064%` of SS — both negative (correct sign). +- `irfs_def_D['b_gov_D'][499] = 0.000046` — same order of magnitude as the Task 13 + baseline (`1.6e-05`), no blow-up. +- No `assert_gk_well_posed` failure, no warnings or tracebacks anywhere in the run log. + +`code/test_nkpc_blocks.py`: **17 passed, 0 failed** (unchanged — Task 14 is a calibration +change only, no new blocks or equations). + +**Next: Task 15** — rebuild the regime cache (`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py +--force`) and `experiments/run_all.py`. **E1–E4 numbers in `docs/experiments_results.md` +are stale as of this commit** — they were built against `psi_lambda_B=8.5` (and, further +back, against the pre-sticky-price model), not the current 7.85 tuning. ## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 10 — price-stickiness-only result at the calibrated slope From 120dcf68c8c73779993fe50c438085f78fae7e9d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Adam Date: Thu, 6 Aug 2026 11:05:39 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 25/42] regen: rebuild regime cache and regenerate E1-E4 on the sticky-price model MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Cache rebuilt (psilam7p85_cal685f7838) BEFORE run_all.py — experiments read cached Jacobians and never re-solve, so the reverse order silently reports the flexible-price model. E1: loading 4.00/3.17 -> 3.82/2.90, still monotone decreasing and above 1 throughout (schedule 4.43 -> 1.49). Live Claims 1 and 5 survive. Y_D[0] and C_D[0] still positive under medium/aggressive. E2: market_clearing_D closes at 2e-16 vs the 1e-07 assertion — nothing leaked into the resource constraint. Headline-vs-channels ordering reverses. E3: full writeoff now inverts Live Claim 1 only at aggressive (0.26); medium holds at 2.46. E4: stale decile cache rebuilt; paper figures and tables re-emitted. run_all.py: two hardcoded flex-price captions in the GENERATED document now compute live — E3's psi_lambda_B was stale, E2's was stating the opposite of the table above it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 --- diagnostics/regimes/regimes_log.md | 93 ++ docs/HANDOFF.md | 55 +- docs/PROGRESS.md | 46 + docs/STATE.md | 113 ++ docs/experiments_results.md | 70 +- docs/paper_draft_results.md | 36 +- .../figures/fig_e1_loading_schedule.png | Bin 179884 -> 178372 bytes experiments/paper/fig01_transmission.png | Bin 358765 -> 339222 bytes experiments/paper/fig02_loading_schedule.png | Bin 224436 -> 225686 bytes experiments/paper/fig03_dy_decomposition.png | Bin 203500 -> 212309 bytes .../paper/fig04_spread_decomposition.png | Bin 127960 -> 129997 bytes experiments/paper/fig05_incidence.png | Bin 282814 -> 283853 bytes experiments/paper/fig06_net_effects.png | Bin 198286 -> 221987 bytes experiments/paper/fig08_deciles.png | Bin 447575 -> 400288 bytes experiments/results/e1_backstop_schedule.json | 342 ++--- experiments/results/e2_dy_decomposition.json | 1284 ++++++++--------- experiments/results/e3_writeoff_s1.json | 376 ++--- experiments/run_all.py | 37 +- 18 files changed, 1378 insertions(+), 1074 deletions(-) diff --git a/diagnostics/regimes/regimes_log.md b/diagnostics/regimes/regimes_log.md index fe8d16a..c43a51e 100644 --- a/diagnostics/regimes/regimes_log.md +++ b/diagnostics/regimes/regimes_log.md @@ -570,3 +570,96 @@ Stage A (main) complete. note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. - caches written: ['cache_G_main_v3_psilam8p50_cal3397854d.npz', 'cache_G_main_v3_psilam0p00_cal3397854d.npz'] + +## Cache build (main model) — 2026-08-06 10:46:15 +- calibration: psi_lambda_B=7.85, mv_rule=0.0, recovery_rate=0.3, kappa_cb_F=0.929 +- EL_price_D = 0.056134 (main recovery=0.30; NOT the ms-regime 0.102491 anchor) +- 2026-08-06 10:46:15 solving G_tpi at psi_lambda_B=7.85 ... +- model-build sanity: G_tpi[cb=0] vs baseline spread_rb max|err| = 0.00e+00 (expect <1e-8) +- cross-check vs SA-1 probe: d(spread_rb)/d(cb_buy)[0,0] = -3.59256e-02 (probe found -1.9455e-2 → expect match; A_cb<0 = backstop COMPRESSES on main) + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `G_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `ra_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `lambda_gk_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_WEALTH`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_C`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. +- 2026-08-06 10:46:49 solving G_tpi at psi_lambda_B=0.0 ... + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `G_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `ra_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `lambda_gk_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_WEALTH`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_C`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. +- caches written: ['cache_G_main_v3_psilam7p85_cal685f7838.npz', 'cache_G_main_v3_psilam0p00_cal685f7838.npz'] + +## Cache build (main model) — 2026-08-06 10:49:54 +- calibration: psi_lambda_B=7.85, mv_rule=0.0, recovery_rate=0.3, kappa_cb_F=0.929 +- EL_price_D = 0.056134 (main recovery=0.30; NOT the ms-regime 0.102491 anchor) +- 2026-08-06 10:49:54 solving G_tpi at psi_lambda_B=7.85 ... +- model-build sanity: G_tpi[cb=0] vs baseline spread_rb max|err| = 0.00e+00 (expect <1e-8) +- cross-check vs SA-1 probe: d(spread_rb)/d(cb_buy)[0,0] = -3.61333e-02 (probe found -1.9455e-2 → expect match; A_cb<0 = backstop COMPRESSES on main) + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `G_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `ra_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `lambda_gk_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_WEALTH`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_C`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. +- 2026-08-06 10:50:28 solving G_tpi at psi_lambda_B=0.0 ... + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `G_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `ra_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `lambda_gk_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_WEALTH`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_C`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. +- caches written: ['cache_G_main_v3_psilam7p85_cal1dda3628.npz', 'cache_G_main_v3_psilam0p00_cal1dda3628.npz'] + +## Cache build (main model) — 2026-08-06 10:53:05 +- calibration: psi_lambda_B=7.85, mv_rule=0.0, recovery_rate=0.3, kappa_cb_F=0.929 +- EL_price_D = 0.701743 (main recovery=0.30; NOT the ms-regime 0.102491 anchor) +- 2026-08-06 10:53:05 solving G_tpi at psi_lambda_B=7.85 ... +- model-build sanity: G_tpi[cb=0] vs baseline spread_rb max|err| = 0.00e+00 (expect <1e-8) +- cross-check vs SA-1 probe: d(spread_rb)/d(cb_buy)[0,0] = -5.79526e-02 (probe found -1.9455e-2 → expect match; A_cb<0 = backstop COMPRESSES on main) + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `G_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `ra_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `lambda_gk_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_WEALTH`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_C`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. +- 2026-08-06 10:53:40 solving G_tpi at psi_lambda_B=0.0 ... + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `G_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `ra_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `lambda_gk_D`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_WEALTH`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + **MISSING OPTIONAL OUTPUT `GINI_C`** — not in main's G_tpi.outputs; panel zero-filled/omitted WITH a caption note, never silently. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `div_fund_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `shock_def_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. + note: output `T_D` has no Jacobian column for `cb_buy_D` at this calibration -> zero response (filled 0 T x T); economically = o does not respond to i. +- caches written: ['cache_G_main_v3_psilam7p85_cal717eb4c5.npz', 'cache_G_main_v3_psilam0p00_cal717eb4c5.npz'] diff --git a/docs/HANDOFF.md b/docs/HANDOFF.md index 9432d17..aa122b4 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOFF.md +++ b/docs/HANDOFF.md @@ -390,9 +390,42 @@ consequential for the paper right now: | `code/tpi_plots.py`, `code/irf_plots.py` | Figure-generation scripts (regenerate from `main`) | | Overleaf | https://www.overleaf.com/project/698b4f88aeef1d0e1d08cc0c | -## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 14 done, Task 15 next - -**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–14 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`) — Task 15 done, Task 16 next + +**Task 15 done (2026-08-06).** Regime cache rebuilt, then E1–E4 regenerated — +in that order, which is the whole point: `experiments/` never re-solves the +model, it reads `regime_model.py`'s cached Jacobians, so the reverse ordering +silently reports the old model's numbers. New caches tagged +`psilam7p85_cal685f7838`; every provenance stamp in +`docs/experiments_results.md` confirms it. Headlines: **loading still monotone +decreasing (3.82 → 2.90 named, 4.43 → 1.49 across the schedule, above 1 +throughout) — Live Claims 1 and 5 survive**; `Y_D[0]`/`C_D[0]` still positive +under medium/aggressive and much larger; E2's identity closes at 2e−16 against +the 1e−07 assertion. Two findings that change prose, not code: E2's +headline-vs-channels ordering **reverses** (largest channel now 0.25× the +headline, was ~4×), and E3's full writeoff now inverts Live Claim 1 **only at +aggressive** (0.26) with medium holding at 2.46. Full tables in `docs/STATE.md`. + +E4 is **not** wired into `run_all.py` — `experiments/e4_distribution.py` is a +separate entry point feeding `experiments/paper_outputs.py`. Its cache was stale +and both were regenerated. Do not assume `run_all.py` covers E4. + +**Next: Task 16** — final documentation pass across STATE.md, PROGRESS.md, +HANDOFF.md, SPEC.md and CLAUDE.md. Known specifics to fix there: +- `docs/STATE.md` line 3 still reads branch `eba-recalibration` / 2026-07-31. +- `CLAUDE.md` still quotes pre-sticky-price E1 numbers (loading 4.35/4.01/3.44, + `Y_D[0]=-0.0149%`, spread 150.4bp) and the `psi_lambda_B` guidance predates 7.85. +- `docs/SPEC.md`'s ΔY caution needs restating: it is about the channels + *cancelling*, not about the headline being the smaller object — E2 now shows + the opposite magnitude ordering. +- S-1's appendix framing in `CLAUDE.md` says full writeoff collapses the loading + to 0.37/0.28 "below 1"; under sticky prices it is 2.46/0.26, so only the + aggressive regime inverts. +- Consider a test asserting rendered prose agrees with rendered tables in + `run_all.py` — two hardcoded captions went stale (one of them *inverted*) + and nothing caught it. + +**Where it stands.** Tasks 1–15 committed. The dynamic model is sticky-price (27×27) **with nominal deposit contracts live and solving end-to-end, and `psi_lambda_B` re-tuned back onto the 150bp spread moment** (7.85, was 8.5). `i_dep_D/F` is the solver unknown; `rdep_D/F` (ex-ante) and `rdep_expost_D/F` @@ -442,12 +475,6 @@ monotone declining, `n_inter_D[0]`/`Y_D[0]` both negative, `b_gov_D[499]=4.6e-05 (same order as Task 13's 1.6e-05 — no instability). `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` unchanged, 17 passed. Full table and harness details in `docs/STATE.md`. -**Next: Task 15** — rebuild the regime cache against the re-tuned model -(`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`), then re-run -`experiments/run_all.py`. `docs/experiments_results.md` (E1–E4) is stale as of -this commit: it was built against `psi_lambda_B=8.5` and, further back, against -the pre-sticky-price model, not the current 7.85 tuning. - **Two things not to rediscover the hard way.** 1. SSJ 1.0.0 drops H_Z rows for targets reachable from no shock, so stock @@ -455,10 +482,12 @@ the pre-sticky-price model, not the current 7.85 tuning. `full_model.solve_jacobian_padded()`. All call sites were converted in Task 9b; `grep -rn "\.solve_jacobian(" --include="*.py" code experiments diagnostics` must stay empty. -2. The regime cache has **not** been rebuilt against the 27×27 system, or against - the Task 14 `psi_lambda_B=7.85` retune. Task 15 does both - (`diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py --force`), and E1–E4 numbers are stale - until it runs. +2. The regime cache is keyed on a hash of the **whole** live calibration + (`regime_model._calibration_fingerprint`), so any calibration change mints a + new filename and a stale cache can never be picked up silently. It was rebuilt + against the 27×27 system and `psi_lambda_B=7.85` in Task 15 + (`psilam7p85_cal685f7838`). Rebuild it again — **before** `run_all.py` — after + any future calibration change. ## Run environment diff --git a/docs/PROGRESS.md b/docs/PROGRESS.md index 7190610..c7180b4 100644 --- a/docs/PROGRESS.md +++ b/docs/PROGRESS.md @@ -14,6 +14,52 @@ and `.githooks/pre-commit` (terminal commits; enable with --- +## 2026-08-06 — Task 15: E1–E4 regenerated on the sticky-price model (`add-nkpc`) + +- **Regime cache rebuilt first**, `experiments/run_all.py` second — the ordering is + load-bearing. The `experiments/` package never re-solves the model; it reads cached + Jacobian response matrices from `diagnostics/regimes/regime_model.py`. Running it + against the old cache would have silently re-reported flexible-price results as if + they were sticky-price ones. +- New caches `cache_G_main_v3_psilam{7p85,0p00}_cal685f7838.npz` (old set was tagged + `psilam8p50` under hashes `calde195df2` / `cal004630e7` / `cal3397854d`). Confirmed + consumed by checking every provenance stamp in `docs/experiments_results.md` reads + `calibration 685f7838 · psi_lambda_B=7.85`. The two extra hashes written during the + run (`cal1dda3628`, `cal717eb4c5`) are E3's two overridden re-solves, not main-model + rebuilds — identified by their `EL_price_D` (0.056134 vs 0.701743). +- **E1**: γ for the same 0/25/50% compression falls 5.0798 → 3.2515 (medium) and + 12.7260 → 9.0163 (aggressive) — the backstop is more powerful per unit under sticky + prices. Loading 4.00/3.17 → **3.82/2.90**, still monotone decreasing, schedule + 4.43 → 1.49 over 59 grid points and above 1 throughout. **Live Claim 1 and Live + Claim 5 both survive.** `Y_D[0]`/`C_D[0]` remain positive under medium and + aggressive and are an order of magnitude larger; the passive `C_D[0]` flips + +0.2164 → −0.5103, the Task 10 stickiness sign flip propagating into E1. +- **E2**: `market_clearing_D` identity closes at 3.5e−17 / 1.1e−16 / 2.2e−16 against + the 1e−07 assertion — no Rotemberg resource cost leaked into the resource + constraint, which is what the untouched identity was preserved to test. But the + headline-vs-channels finding **reverses**: the largest single channel is now 0.25× + the headline, where under flex prices it was ~4×. +- **E3**: `writeoff_enabled=1` alone still negligible and SS-neutral (drift 0.000e+00). + Full writeoff now inverts Live Claim 1 **only at aggressive** (loading 0.26) — + medium holds at 2.46, where the flex model had both below 1 (0.37/0.28). The + appendix robustness claim needs narrowing accordingly. +- **E4 + paper artefacts**: `experiments/cache_e4_deciles.npz` was stale (2026-08-05, + predating the sticky-price workstream) and is **not** wired into `run_all.py`. + Rebuilt via `experiments/e4_distribution.py`; `experiments/paper_outputs.py` then + re-emitted all 8 tracked `experiments/paper/fig0*.png` and + `docs/paper_draft_results.md`. Otherwise the commit would have shipped nine tracked + paper artefacts built on the old model. +- **`experiments/run_all.py`**: two prose captions in the GENERATED document had + flex-price numbers hardcoded as string literals. E3's `psi_lambda_B = 8.5` was + merely stale; E2's "`dY[0]` moves by ~+4.9e−04 … each roughly 4× the headline" was + **asserting the opposite of the table printed immediately above it**. Both now + compute from provenance/results, and the E2 caption selects its own leading sentence + from the data. No test covers agreement between rendered prose and rendered tables. +- Tests: 40 passed (`experiments/`, `code/test_nkpc_blocks.py` 17, + `code/test_eba_calibration.py` 10). + +--- + ## 2026-08-06 — Task 14: `psi_lambda_B` re-tuned to the 150bp spread moment (`add-nkpc`) - Task 13's Fisher channel (plus NKPC stickiness) had pushed the peak GR–DE spread diff --git a/docs/STATE.md b/docs/STATE.md index 98c4ad7..8e1d0c9 100644 --- a/docs/STATE.md +++ b/docs/STATE.md @@ -2,6 +2,119 @@ **Branch:** `eba-recalibration` | **Date:** 2026-07-31 | **Status:** **EBA calibration rebuilt, identified, and LIVE** (`EBA_CALIBRATION=True`, `BANK_SCOPE="broad"`). Y-1 and RK-1 resolved; spread on target at 150.4bp; TPI loading declining. +## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 15 — E1–E4 regenerated on the sticky-price model + +The regime cache was rebuilt (`regime_model.py --force`) **before** `experiments/run_all.py`, +which is the ordering that matters: the experiments never re-solve the model, they read +cached Jacobian response matrices, so running them first would have silently re-reported +the flexible-price numbers. New caches are tagged `psilam7p85_cal685f7838` (the old set was +`psilam8p50_calde195df2` / `cal004630e7` / `cal3397854d`). Every E1/E2/E3 provenance stamp +in `docs/experiments_results.md` now reads `calibration 685f7838 · psi_lambda_B=7.85`, +which is the check that the fresh cache was the one consumed. + +### E1 — backstop schedule, old (flex, `psi_lambda_B=8.5`) vs new (sticky, 7.85) + +| | passive | medium | aggressive | +|---|---|---|---| +| γ — old | 0 | 5.0798 | 12.7260 | +| **γ — new** | **0** | **3.2515** | **9.0163** | +| peak spread (bp ann) — old | 150.3 | 112.7 | 75.2 | +| **peak spread (bp ann) — new** | **150.1** | **112.6** | **75.1** | +| `Y_D[0]` (% SS) — old | −0.0149 | +0.0111 | +0.0338 | +| **`Y_D[0]` (% SS) — new** | **−0.5064** | **+0.2008** | **+0.8721** | +| `C_D[0]` (% SS) — old | +0.2164 | +0.3040 | +0.3855 | +| **`C_D[0]` (% SS) — new** | **−0.5103** | **+0.5285** | **+1.5143** | +| `I_D[0]` (% SS) — old | −0.7718 | −0.2903 | +0.1217 | +| **`I_D[0]` (% SS) — new** | **−1.0114** | **−0.2934** | **+0.3977** | +| `n_inter_D[0]` (% SS) — old | −3.380 | −2.167 | −1.099 | +| **`n_inter_D[0]` (% SS) — new** | **−4.296** | **−1.649** | **+0.924** | +| loading — old | n/a | 4.00 | 3.17 | +| **loading — new** | **n/a** | **3.82** | **2.90** | + +The peak-spread column is nearly unchanged **by construction** — the regimes are *defined* +as 0/25/50% compression and γ is solved to hit that, so the informative move is that the +same compression now costs a **smaller** γ (3.25 vs 5.08; 9.02 vs 12.73). The backstop is +more powerful per unit under sticky prices. + +**1. Is the loading still monotone decreasing in γ? YES.** 3.82 → 2.90 across the named +regimes, and the full schedule (59 finite grid points over γ ∈ [0.51, 30.00]) falls +**4.43 → 1.49**, reported monotone-decreasing by E1's own check. The paper's key claim — +the self-extinguishing premium — survives the move to sticky prices, and the loading stays +above 1 throughout, so over-compensation survives too. The level is slightly lower than the +flex-price schedule (old 4.35/4.01/3.44 at γ=0/5/10) but the shape is the claim, not the level. + +**2. Are `Y_D[0]` and `C_D[0]` still positive under the intervening regimes? YES, and far +more strongly.** `Y_D[0]` = +0.2008 / +0.8721 and `C_D[0]` = +0.5285 / +1.5143 at +medium/aggressive. The old "watch item" is not merely intact, it is an order of magnitude +larger. What *has* changed is the **passive** column: `C_D[0]` flips from +0.2164 to +−0.5103, which is exactly the Task 10 price-stickiness sign flip propagating into E1. So +the backstop now moves consumption across zero rather than merely raising an +already-positive number — a cleaner story, but E2 below says do not lead with it. + +### E2 — closure held + +The `market_clearing_D` identity closes at `max|residual|` = **3.53e−17 / 1.09e−16 / +2.22e−16** (passive / medium / aggressive) against the 1e−07 assertion. No Rotemberg +resource cost leaked into the resource constraint, which is what makes this check +meaningful. + +**E2's headline-vs-channels finding REVERSES.** Under flex prices `dY[0]` moved ++4.9e−04 passive → aggressive while investment moved +2.2e−03 and net exports −1.9e−03 — +the headline was a small residue of channels ~4× its size. Under sticky prices `dY[0]` +moves **+1.38e−02** while investment moves +3.41e−03 and net exports −2.92e−03: the +largest single channel is now **0.25×** the headline, not 4×. The channels still offset, +so "report the decomposition, not the headline ΔY" still stands — but the *reason* has +changed and `docs/SPEC.md`'s caution must be restated as being about cancellation rather +than about the headline being dominated. This was caught because the caption was hardcoded; +it now computes from the data and flips its own wording (see below). + +### E3 — S-1 under sticky prices: the inversion is now partial + +| setting | `EL_price_D` | peak spread, passive | loading (medium) | loading (aggressive) | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| baseline | 0.056134 | 150.1 | 3.82 | 2.90 | +| `writeoff_enabled=1` | 0.056134 | 149.4 | 3.77 | 2.87 | +| `+ zeta_writeoff=1` | 0.701743 | 252.3 | **2.46** | **0.26** | + +`writeoff_enabled=1` alone remains negligible and SS-neutral (max SS drift 0.000e+00), +confirming the S-1 decision. Under full writeoff the loading no longer falls below 1 +*everywhere* — **medium stays at 2.46, only aggressive inverts at 0.26**, where the +flex-price model had both below 1 (0.37/0.28). The appendix robustness claim therefore +needs restating: full writeoff inverts Live Claim 1 **only at aggressive intervention**, +not across the schedule. Peak spread remains non-monotone in γ under this setting, so the +named-regime construction still breaks there and all rows are evaluated at the baseline's γ. + +### E4 and paper artefacts also regenerated + +`experiments/cache_e4_deciles.npz` was **stale** (2026-08-05, predating the entire +sticky-price workstream) and is not wired into `run_all.py` — it is a separate entry point. +Rebuilt via `experiments/e4_distribution.py`, then `experiments/paper_outputs.py` re-emitted +all 8 tracked `experiments/paper/fig0*.png` and `docs/paper_draft_results.md`. Without this +the commit would have carried nine tracked paper artefacts built on the old model. + +### Two hardcoded captions in the GENERATED document, both now computed live + +`experiments/run_all.py` carried two prose captions with flex-price numbers baked in as +string literals. A generated document that hardcodes results is worse than no document: + +1. E3's `psi_lambda_B = 8.5` — stale after the re-tune to 7.85. Now reads + `e3['provenance']['psi_lambda_B_D']`. +2. E2's "`dY[0]` moves by ~+4.9e−04 … each roughly 4× the headline" — not just stale but + **stating the opposite of the table printed directly above it**. Now computed from + `components_impact` and it selects its own leading sentence depending on whether the + headline is or is not dominated by the channels. + +Neither was caught by a test, because no test asserts that rendered prose agrees with +rendered tables. Worth considering in Task 16. + +Tests: `experiments/ code/test_nkpc_blocks.py code/test_eba_calibration.py` → **40 passed** +(17 in `test_nkpc_blocks.py`). + +**Next: Task 16** — final documentation pass across STATE.md, PROGRESS.md, HANDOFF.md, +SPEC.md and CLAUDE.md. Note that this file's header (line 3) still says branch +`eba-recalibration` / 2026-07-31 and CLAUDE.md still quotes the pre-sticky-price E1 numbers +and `psi_lambda_B` guidance; both need reconciling there. + ## Nominal rigidities (`add-nkpc`): Task 11 — nominal deposit contracts split into `i_dep`/`rdep`/`rdep_expost` `rdep_D/F` is split into three names to avoid a wide, risky rename. `deposit_rates_D/F` diff --git a/docs/experiments_results.md b/docs/experiments_results.md index c38ec35..4d24d69 100644 --- a/docs/experiments_results.md +++ b/docs/experiments_results.md @@ -1,20 +1,20 @@ # Policy experiments — standard results -*Generated 2026-08-03T13:05:24 from `7eacc65` · **working tree DIRTY** · calibration `de195df2` · scope `broad` · `psi_lambda_B=8.5` · `mv_rule=0` · `recovery_rate=0.3` · `writeoff_enabled=0` · `zeta_writeoff=0`* +*Generated 2026-08-06T11:03:48 from `151ef3d` · **working tree DIRTY** · calibration `685f7838` · scope `broad` · `psi_lambda_B=7.85` · `mv_rule=0` · `recovery_rate=0.3` · `writeoff_enabled=0` · `zeta_writeoff=0`* Generated by `experiments/run_all.py`. **Do not edit by hand** — edit the experiment and re-run, or the next run discards the edit. Design spec: `docs/superpowers/specs/2026-08-01-policy-experiments-design.md`. ## E1 — Backstop schedule -*Generated 2026-08-03T12:09:36 from `b3d5889` · **working tree DIRTY** · calibration `de195df2` · scope `broad` · `psi_lambda_B=8.5` · `mv_rule=0` · `recovery_rate=0.3` · `writeoff_enabled=0` · `zeta_writeoff=0`* +*Generated 2026-08-06T11:00:06 from `151ef3d` · **working tree DIRTY** · calibration `685f7838` · scope `broad` · `psi_lambda_B=7.85` · `mv_rule=0` · `recovery_rate=0.3` · `writeoff_enabled=0` · `zeta_writeoff=0`* γ selection: peak-spread compression 0/25/50% (spec section 7); gamma solved, not chosen. | regime | γ | peak spread (bp ann) | Y_D[0] (% SS) | C_D[0] (% SS) | I_D[0] (% SS) | n_inter_D[0] (% SS) | loading | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| -| passive | 0.0000 | 150.3 | -0.0149 | +0.2164 | -0.7718 | -3.380 | n/a | -| medium | 5.0798 | 112.7 | +0.0111 | +0.3040 | -0.2903 | -2.167 | 4.00 | -| aggressive | 12.7260 | 75.2 | +0.0338 | +0.3855 | +0.1217 | -1.099 | 3.17 | +| passive | 0.0000 | 150.1 | -0.5064 | -0.5103 | -1.0114 | -4.296 | n/a | +| medium | 3.2515 | 112.6 | +0.2008 | +0.5285 | -0.2934 | -1.649 | 3.82 | +| aggressive | 9.0163 | 75.1 | +0.8721 | +1.5143 | +0.3977 | +0.924 | 2.90 | ### A5-1 — three separate objects @@ -23,14 +23,14 @@ Generated by `experiments/run_all.py`. **Do not edit by hand** — edit the expe | regime | exposure PV (% Y) | expected loss PV (% Y) | `pd_D` differential PV | |---|---|---|---| | passive | 0.0000 | 0.00000 | +0.000000 | -| medium | 0.4265 | 0.00228 | -0.001541 | -| aggressive | 1.1062 | 0.00391 | -0.004651 | +| medium | 0.2170 | 0.00138 | -0.002776 | +| aggressive | 0.4719 | 0.00248 | -0.006112 | > **The third column is misnamed in the code and its sign needs an author decision.** It reports `Σ β^t (pd_passive − pd_intervention)`, which is negative because the backstop lets Greece run a *larger* primary deficit — it relaxes required austerity. So negative means Greece is better off, the opposite of what "fiscal saving" implies. Flip the sign or rename it ("austerity relief, PV") before quoting it. Magnitudes are unaffected. ### Loading schedule (Live Claim 5) -59 finite grid points over γ ∈ [0.51, 30.00]: loading falls from **4.51** to **2.07**. Monotone decreasing: **YES**. +59 finite grid points over γ ∈ [0.51, 30.00]: loading falls from **4.43** to **1.49**. Monotone decreasing: **YES**. The self-extinguishing premium is the *decline*, so the schedule — not any single point — is the object. @@ -42,50 +42,50 @@ SECONDARY. SPEC: do not lead with welfare — it is a delicate decomposition-dep | regime | W_D | W_F | |---|---|---| -| passive | +0.0399 | +0.0403 | -| medium | +0.0646 | +0.0189 | -| aggressive | +0.1056 | -0.0310 | +| passive | -0.0036 | +0.0174 | +| medium | -0.0090 | +0.0638 | +| aggressive | -0.0253 | +0.1052 | ## E2 — ΔY decomposition -*Generated 2026-08-03T12:08:12 from `b3d5889` · **working tree DIRTY** · calibration `de195df2` · scope `broad` · `psi_lambda_B=8.5` · `mv_rule=0` · `recovery_rate=0.3` · `writeoff_enabled=0` · `zeta_writeoff=0`* +*Generated 2026-08-06T10:47:57 from `151ef3d` · **working tree DIRTY** · calibration `685f7838` · scope `broad` · `psi_lambda_B=7.85` · `mv_rule=0` · `recovery_rate=0.3` · `writeoff_enabled=0` · `zeta_writeoff=0`* Identity (`market_clearing_D`): `dY = P_ss·dC + C_ss·dP_CES + dI + dG + dΦ + dT + dNX`. `goods_mkt_D` is a targeted residual (≤1e−14), so this closes to solver tolerance — the decomposition is **self-verifying**, and the runner asserts closure at 1e-07 rather than warning. | regime | Y_D[0] (% SS) | Y_D trough (% SS) | dI PV | dNX PV | dC(qty) PV | dC(price) PV | max\|residual\| | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| -| passive | -0.0149 | -0.0149 | +3.050e-03 | +1.414e-04 | -3.750e-04 | +5.088e-05 | 6.75e-17 | -| medium | +0.0111 | +0.0065 | +3.758e-03 | +2.251e-04 | -1.505e-04 | +1.262e-04 | 1.30e-16 | -| aggressive | +0.0338 | +0.0043 | +3.920e-03 | +4.997e-05 | +8.898e-04 | +1.631e-04 | 2.27e-16 | +| passive | -0.5064 | -0.5064 | +2.499e-03 | +1.510e-04 | -2.977e-03 | -1.914e-04 | 3.53e-17 | +| medium | +0.2008 | -0.0096 | +3.701e-03 | +1.964e-04 | +2.397e-03 | +3.445e-04 | 1.09e-16 | +| aggressive | +0.8721 | -0.0328 | +4.986e-03 | +2.691e-04 | +7.677e-03 | +8.906e-04 | 2.22e-16 | ### Impact (t=0) decomposition, level deviations | component | passive | medium | aggressive | |---|---|---|---| -| consumption_quantity | +1.462e-03 | +2.055e-03 | +2.606e-03 | -| consumption_price | +1.763e-04 | -3.416e-04 | -7.955e-04 | -| investment | -1.868e-03 | -7.025e-04 | +2.945e-04 | +| consumption_quantity | -3.450e-03 | +3.572e-03 | +1.024e-02 | +| consumption_price | +9.074e-05 | -1.053e-04 | -2.988e-04 | +| investment | -2.448e-03 | -7.101e-04 | +9.624e-04 | | government | +0.000e+00 | +0.000e+00 | +0.000e+00 | | portfolio_cost | +0.000e+00 | +0.000e+00 | +0.000e+00 | | macropru_tax | +0.000e+00 | +0.000e+00 | +0.000e+00 | -| net_exports | +7.955e-05 | -9.005e-04 | -1.767e-03 | -| **dY[0] total** | **-1.494e-04** | **+1.107e-04** | **+3.377e-04** | +| net_exports | +7.425e-04 | -7.493e-04 | -2.178e-03 | +| **dY[0] total** | **-5.064e-03** | **+2.008e-03** | **+8.721e-03** | -> **The headline output number is the residue of two much larger offsetting channels.** Passive → aggressive, `dY[0]` moves by ~+4.9e−04 while investment moves ~+2.2e−03 and net exports ~−1.9e−03 — each roughly 4× the headline and opposite in sign. This confirms `docs/SPEC.md`'s standing caution as a measured property of this calibration. **Report the decomposition, not the headline ΔY.** +> **The headline output number is no longer a residue of larger offsetting channels — it now exceeds each of them.** passive → aggressive, `dY[0]` moves by +1.38e-02 while investment moves +3.41e-03 and net exports -2.92e-03 — the largest single channel is 0.25x the headline. **Report the decomposition, not the headline ΔY** — the channels still offset, and `docs/SPEC.md`'s standing caution is about their cancellation, not about which term happens to be largest. > `government`, `portfolio_cost` and `macropru_tax` are **verified** zero, not merely uncached: `G_D` is constant and absent from the Jacobian, `Phi_D` has no Jacobian column (the portfolio adjustment cost is quadratic about its anchor, so its level deviation is second-order), and `T_D` is identically zero at `T0=T1=0`. The identity closes *because* all three are genuinely zero. ## E3 — S-1 writeoff -*Generated 2026-08-03T12:32:16 from `de03a8e` · **working tree DIRTY** · calibration `de195df2` · scope `broad` · `psi_lambda_B=8.5` · `mv_rule=0` · `recovery_rate=0.3` · `writeoff_enabled=0` · `zeta_writeoff=0`* +*Generated 2026-08-06T10:48:00 from `151ef3d` · **working tree DIRTY** · calibration `685f7838` · scope `broad` · `psi_lambda_B=7.85` · `mv_rule=0` · `recovery_rate=0.3` · `writeoff_enabled=0` · `zeta_writeoff=0`* `writeoff_enabled` is steady-state-neutral: every writeoff term is multiplied by `def_rate_ss = 0`. `zeta_writeoff` is **not** — it enters the `EL_price` anchor at `code/steady_state.py:107-112` *ungated by* `writeoff_enabled`, and `EL_price` is the loading's denominator. S-1 is therefore two nested variants, not one switch. | setting | `writeoff_enabled` | `zeta_writeoff` | EL_price_D | peak spread, passive (bp ann) | loading (medium) | loading (aggressive) | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| -| baseline | 0 | 0.0 | 0.056134 | 150.3 | 4.00 | 3.17 | -| e3a_coupon_only | 1 | 0.0 | 0.056134 | 149.1 | 3.93 | 3.13 | -| e3b_full | 1 | 1.0 | 0.701743 | 168.9 | 0.37 | 0.28 | +| baseline | 0 | 0.0 | 0.056134 | 150.1 | 3.82 | 2.90 | +| e3a_coupon_only | 1 | 0.0 | 0.056134 | 149.4 | 3.77 | 2.87 | +| e3b_full | 1 | 1.0 | 0.701743 | 252.3 | 2.46 | 0.26 | γ note: Solved on the BASELINE (0/25/50% peak-spread compression) and held fixed across variants, so a difference in the table is attributable to the writeoff switch alone. Under e3b_full the peak spread is not monotone in gamma, so these targets are not even well-defined there — see compression. @@ -95,12 +95,12 @@ Under `zeta_writeoff = 1` the loading falls **below 1** — the CB becomes *unde | variant | regime | EL PV (% Y) | premium PV (% Y) | loading | |---|---|---|---|---| -| baseline | medium | 0.00228 | 0.00909 | 4.00 | -| baseline | aggressive | 0.00391 | 0.01240 | 3.17 | -| e3a_coupon_only | medium | 0.00220 | 0.00867 | 3.93 | -| e3a_coupon_only | aggressive | 0.00382 | 0.01194 | 3.13 | -| e3b_full | medium | 0.02696 | 0.00988 | 0.37 | -| e3b_full | aggressive | 0.04542 | 0.01271 | 0.28 | +| baseline | medium | 0.00138 | 0.00526 | 3.82 | +| baseline | aggressive | 0.00248 | 0.00720 | 2.90 | +| e3a_coupon_only | medium | 0.00134 | 0.00504 | 3.77 | +| e3a_coupon_only | aggressive | 0.00244 | 0.00700 | 2.87 | +| e3b_full | medium | 0.02220 | 0.05471 | 2.46 | +| e3b_full | aggressive | 0.03058 | 0.00810 | 0.26 | ### Verification @@ -119,11 +119,11 @@ The named regimes are *defined* as 25%/50% peak-spread compression, found by bis | setting | monotone in γ? | peak @ γ=0 (bp) | min peak (bp) | γ at min | violations | |---|---|---|---|---|---| -| baseline | yes | 150.3 | 67.9 | 15.00 | 0 | -| e3a_coupon_only | yes | 149.1 | 68.5 | 15.00 | 0 | -| e3b_full | **NO** (from γ≈0.38) | 168.9 | 82.7 | 15.00 | 2 | +| baseline | yes | 150.1 | 54.8 | 15.00 | 0 | +| e3a_coupon_only | yes | 149.4 | 55.4 | 15.00 | 0 | +| e3b_full | **NO** (from γ≈0.77) | 252.3 | 68.2 | 15.00 | 3 | > **Under full writeoff the named-regime construction itself breaks.** Peak spread stops being monotone in γ, so "25% compression" no longer identifies a unique γ. The violations are two of 39 grid steps: a trivial one at γ≈0.39 and a large spike at γ≈3.46 (144.4 → 166.6 bp), after which the curve resumes falling. That isolated spike sits where `I − γ·A_cb` is plausibly near-singular, so read it as a linear-algebra pathology rather than economics until confirmed — but compression-targeted regimes cannot be defined under this setting, which is why every row above is evaluated at the baseline's γ held fixed. -> `psi_lambda_B = 8.5` was tuned to 150 bp with realised losses **off**. The overshoot above is a reportable fact about whether that target survives S-1 — **not** a number to re-tune away. Whether to re-tune is a separate author decision this result informs. +> `psi_lambda_B = 7.85` was tuned to 150 bp with realised losses **off**. The overshoot above is a reportable fact about whether that target survives S-1 — **not** a number to re-tune away. Whether to re-tune is a separate author decision this result informs. diff --git a/docs/paper_draft_results.md b/docs/paper_draft_results.md index 8137b01..aea8ce6 100644 --- a/docs/paper_draft_results.md +++ b/docs/paper_draft_results.md @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ # First-draft results — tables and figures -*Generated 2026-08-05T14:15:09 from `b3983cb` · calibration `de195df2` · `BANK_SCOPE=broad` · `writeoff_enabled=0` (pure risk-premium framing, S-1 resolved 2026-08-04).* +*Generated 2026-08-06T11:01:37 from `151ef3d` · calibration `685f7838` · `BANK_SCOPE=broad` · `writeoff_enabled=0` (pure risk-premium framing, S-1 resolved 2026-08-04).* Generated by `experiments/paper_outputs.py`. Every number is read live from the solved steady state or the cached response matrices — none is transcribed. Figures are in `experiments/paper/`, each with its caption baked into the image. @@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ The distinction that matters for a referee is *which* parameters are measured, w | `b_F_D` (cross-holdings) | 0.0077 | **measured** | EBA 2011 bilateral GR/DE exposures | | `n_inter_D` / `n_inter_F` | 2.138 / 1.627 | *implied* | `(Q·K + sovereign) / theta` — follows from measured leverage and the balance sheet | | `recovery_rate` | 0.30 | *external estimate* | Zettelmeyer, Trebesch & Gulati (PIIE WP13-8): 59–65% investor NPV loss in the March 2012 Greek PSI | -| `psi_lambda_B` | 8.50 | **FREE — the one amplification dial** | matched to the ~150bp 2010 GR–DE spread on a 1pp default shock; no EBA counterpart | +| `psi_lambda_B` | 7.85 | **FREE — the one amplification dial** | matched to the ~150bp 2010 GR–DE spread on a 1pp default shock; no EBA counterpart | | `def_scale` | 0.25 | free | strong-amplification choice; exceeds the 0.12–0.23 GR-2011 range | | `Delta_bD_D` / `Delta_bF_D` | 0.20 / 0.40 | **unidentified** | no EBA counterpart; the GK feasibility inequality bounds but does not pin them | | `phi_lamb` | 0.15 | free | fiscal feedback; literature (Staehr 2008) is 0.025–0.038 quarterly | @@ -26,26 +26,26 @@ The distinction that matters for a referee is *which* parameters are measured, w | Moment | Target | Model | Source | |---|---|---|---| -| Peak D–F spread, 1pp default shock | ~150 bp ann. | **150.3 bp** | 2010 GR–DE 10y spread | +| Peak D–F spread, 1pp default shock | ~150 bp ann. | **150.1 bp** | 2010 GR–DE 10y spread | | Capital–output ratio `K/Y` (annual) | 2.70 | **2.70** | conventional | | Steady-state return on capital `rk` | 0.0100 | **0.010000** | conventional quarterly | -| Bank net-worth pass-through | −1.8 to −8.6 %/100bp | **-2.25 %/100bp** | Acharya–Drechsler–Schnabl (2014 JF) bank-equity-on-sovereign-CDS elasticity, converted at three baselines | +| Bank net-worth pass-through | −1.8 to −8.6 %/100bp | **-2.86 %/100bp** | Acharya–Drechsler–Schnabl (2014 JF) bank-equity-on-sovereign-CDS elasticity, converted at three baselines | | Steady-state D and F bond yields | equalised | 0.002491 / 0.002491 | model restriction | ## Table 3 — Main results | | passive | medium | aggressive | |---|---|---|---| -| backstop coefficient γ | 0.000 | 5.080 | 12.726 | -| peak D–F spread (bp ann.) | 150.3 | 112.7 | 75.2 | -| output, impact (% SS) | -0.0149 | +0.0111 | +0.0338 | -| investment, impact (% SS) | -0.7718 | -0.2903 | +0.1217 | -| bank net worth, impact (% SS) | -3.380 | -2.167 | -1.099 | -| ECB exposure PV (% of quarterly $Y_D$) | 0.0000 | 0.4265 | 1.1062 | -| priced expected loss PV (% of $Y_D$) | 0.00000 | 0.00228 | 0.00391 | -| **loading (premium ÷ expected loss)** | n/a | **4.00** | **3.17** | +| backstop coefficient γ | 0.000 | 3.251 | 9.016 | +| peak D–F spread (bp ann.) | 150.1 | 112.6 | 75.1 | +| output, impact (% SS) | -0.5064 | +0.2008 | +0.8721 | +| investment, impact (% SS) | -1.0114 | -0.2934 | +0.3977 | +| bank net worth, impact (% SS) | -4.296 | -1.649 | +0.924 | +| ECB exposure PV (% of quarterly $Y_D$) | 0.0000 | 0.2170 | 0.4719 | +| priced expected loss PV (% of $Y_D$) | 0.00000 | 0.00138 | 0.00248 | +| **loading (premium ÷ expected loss)** | n/a | **3.82** | **2.90** | -Default loading decomposition: `EL_price = 0.056134`, `psi_spread = 1.737724` → fundamental expected loss is **3.1%** of the total and the collateral-friction wedge is **96.9%**. +Default loading decomposition: `EL_price = 0.056134`, `psi_spread = 1.604839` → fundamental expected loss is **3.4%** of the total and the collateral-friction wedge is **96.6%**. ## Table 4 — Distributional incidence, by income quintile @@ -53,11 +53,11 @@ PV of the consumption response over 40 quarters, % of each quintile's own steady | income quintile | passive | medium | aggressive | backstop gain | |---|---|---|---|---| -| Q1 (lowest) | +0.9472 | +1.0913 | +1.3517 | +0.4045 | -| Q2 | +0.0762 | +0.1205 | +0.2890 | +0.2128 | -| Q3 | -0.2322 | -0.2190 | -0.0820 | +0.1502 | -| Q4 | -0.4199 | -0.4256 | -0.3098 | +0.1101 | -| Q5 (highest) | -0.5949 | -0.6188 | -0.5253 | +0.0696 | +| Q1 (lowest) | +0.4250 | +1.4368 | +2.4349 | +2.0098 | +| Q2 | -0.3236 | +0.4973 | +1.3048 | +1.6284 | +| Q3 | -0.5930 | +0.1654 | +0.9099 | +1.5029 | +| Q4 | -0.7566 | -0.0383 | +0.6659 | +1.4226 | +| Q5 (highest) | -0.9073 | -0.2302 | +0.4329 | +1.3403 | > **Do not run this cut on wealth.** Binning on steady-state deposits with fixed boundaries makes the per-capita number overwhelmingly *composition*: the deposit distribution shifts across the thresholds, bin masses move by 2–3e−3 (2–3% of bin mass), and the net is a small residue of two large nearly-cancelling terms — bottom decile, PV: −41.6 consumption against −44.4 mass, netting +2.8. 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